Influence of Transmigration on Sustainable

Influence of Transmigration on Sustainable Agriculture
in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia
Haposan Saragih*, Hitoshi Okuhira*, and Shigeru Yoshida**
*The United Graduate School of Agricultural Sciences, Kagoshima University-Japan;
** Faculty of Agriculture, University of the Ryukyus-Japan
Contents
•
•
•
•
I.
II.
III.
Ⅳ.
Introduction
Methodology
Result and Discussion
Conclusions and Suggestion
Land
Agricultural
Production
Agricultural
Labor
Population
Figure 5. Flow chart model
Agricultural
Land use sector
Non-agricultural
Technology level
Live quality condition
Social condition
Population
sector
Agricultural
production
sector
Agricultural
labor sector
Figure 11. Population sector
Land use sector
Agricultural production sector
Increasing population
inflow rate
Attractiveness
for migration
multiplier
Natural population
growth rate
Population
level
Land development
attractiveness for
migration multiplier
Population
growth inflow
factor
Land area feasible
use ratio
Declining population
outflow rate
Declining natural
population rate
Land use sector
Agricultural production
sector
Level variable
(Stock)
Sub-system
Rate variable
(Flow)
Multiplier
table
Source
and sink
Constant
(Parameter)
Flow
information
Figure 12. Land use sector
Land area feasible
development ratio
Agricultural land
development feasible
acquisition multiplier
Population sector
Agricultural production sector
Agricultural development level
attractiveness multiplier
Increasing agricultural
land use rate
Agricultural
land area
Declining agricultural
land rate
Devastating
land rate
Potential land
development rate
Non-agricultural land
area sector
Land area
feasible use
Maximum land
area feasible use
Population sector
Non-agricultural land area sector
Agricultural production sector
Figure 13. Agricultural production sector
Agricultural population
production rate
Agricultural land
sector
Population sector
Land productivity
Agricultural production
demand multiplier
Declining soil
fertility
multiplier
Agricultural
production level
Declining agricultural
Increasing agricultural
production rate
production rate
Effectiveness population
density multiplier
Agricultural
labor sector
Figure 14. Agricultural labor sector
Agricultural
labor ratio
Population sector
Agricultural
production sector
Total labor
Intensity extension
attractiveness multiplier
Population
labor sector
Agricultural
labor level
Increasing
agricultural
labor rate
Capital stock
multiplier
Declining agricultural
labor rate
Increasing
agricultural
labor ratio
Agricultural labor
productivity
1: Population
3: Agricultural labor
5: Agricultural land
1:
2:
3:
4:
2: Agricultural production
4: Labor
6: Non-agricultural land
3000000
3000
2500000
2500
2000000
2000
1500000
1500
1000000
1000
500000
500
0
0
10
20
30
Figure 6. Base run simulation
40
0
50 year
5:
6:
1400
4000
3500
1200
Population/land
Agricultural production/agricultural land
Agricultural production/population
Population/land agricultural
Non-agricultural land
1000
3000
2500
800
2000
600
1500
400
1000
200
500
0
0
0 2 4
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
year
population/land, non-agricultural land
4500
agricultural production/population, agricultural
production/agricultural land, population/agricultural
land
1600
60
5.0
agricultural labor/labor
50
4.0
3.5
40
3.0
30
2.5
Agricultural labor/labor
Agricultural production/agricultural labor
20
2.0
1.5
1.0
10
agricultural production/agricultural labor
4.5
0.5
0
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
0.0
year
1: Population
3: Agricultural labor
5: Non-agricultural land
1:
2:
3:
2: Production
4: Agricultural land
3000000
3000
2500000
2500
2000000
2000
1500000
1500
1000000
1000
500000
500
0
0
10
20
30
40
0
50 year
4:
5:
2: Production
1: Production growth rate
3: Agricultural labor
4: Agricultural labor growth rate
1400000
10
1200000
5
0
1000000
-5
2:
3:
800000
-10
600000
-15
400000
-20
200000
-25
0
-30
51 year
1
11
21
31
41
1:
4:
1: Population
3: Agricultural labor
5: Non-agricultural land
1:
2:
3:
2: Production
4: Agricultural land
3,000,000
3,000
2,500,000
2,500
2,000,000
2,000
1,500,000
1,500
1,000,000
1,000
500,000
500
0
0
10
20
30
40
0
50 year
4:
5:
2: Production
3: Agricultural labor
1: Production growth rate
4: Agricultural labor growth rate
2,000,000
20
1,800,000
15
1,600,000
1,400,000
2:
3:
10
1,200,000
1,000,000
5
800,000
0
600,000
400,000
-5
200,000
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
-10
50 year
1:
4:

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