Climate System Monitoring Shotaro Tanaka Chief of climate diagnosis Climate Prediction Division of JMA Contents 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Introduction Monitoring of Tropical Conditions Features of El Nino/La Nina events Mudden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Asian Summer Monsoon Products Climate Diagnostic Meeting Future Plans 1. Introduction Purposes • To understand current condition of the climate system • To provide the climate system information • To explain unusual weather • To improve the long-range weather forecast Data Atmospheric Circulation : Objective Analysis Data produced in JMA ERA-15 for climatological normal Tropical Convection : Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from NOAA SST : Analysis Data produced in JMA Snow cover and Sea Ice : Observations with SSM/I onboard the DMSP polar orbiting satellites from NOAA Focusing Points of Monitoring and Analysis • • • • • Difference from Climatological Normal Seasonal March Variations (MJO, ENSO, etc.) Influence of the Tropics to the Extratropics Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction 2. Monitoring of Tropical Conditions 3-month Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in DJF Current SST (DJF 2002/2003) Normal SST (DJF) 3-month Mean SST in JJA Current SST (JJA 2003) Normal SST (JJA) 3-Month Mean SST Anomaly (DJF and JJA 2003) SSTA (Dec2002-Feb2003) SSTA (Jun-Aug2003) Tropical Convective Activity OLR(Outgoing Longwave Radiation, W/m2) Jan. Active Convection Area Jul. Intertropical Convergence Zone Seasonal March of Tropical Convection Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Africa Southeast Asia South America 3-Month Mean OLR Anomaly (DJF and JJA 2003) OLRA (Dec2002Feb2003) OLRA (Jun- Normal Condition of Tropical Circulation (January) Subtropical Jet H H H H H Stream Function at 200-hPa Walker Circulation L H H H Stream Function at 850-hPa H H Normal Condition of Tropical Circulation (July) Tibetan High H H H H Stream Function at 200-hPa Mid-Pacific Trough Monsoon Trough Monsoon Westerlies L H Stream Function at 850-hPa H H H H Tropical Convection and Walker Circulation Walker Circulation : Vertical-Zonal Circulation along the equator From CPC/NOAA Home Page Zonal Mean Fields January 2003 July 2003 SST Indices REGION D (14N-EQ,130-150E) REGION A (4N-4S,160E-150W) REGION B (4N-4S,150-90W) REGION C (EQ-10S,90-80W) Red Shading : El Nino phase Blue Shading : La Nina phase 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Southern Oscillation SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) = (SLP at Tahiti) － (SLP at Darwin) Red Shading : El Nino phase SOI Blue Shading : La Nina phase DARWIN TAHITI 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 OLR Indices OLR-PH OLR-MC OLR-DL 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 OLR indices: area-averaged OLR anomaly Equatorial Zonal Wind Indices U200-IN U200-CP U850-WP U850-CP U850-EP 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 3. Features in El Nino/La Nina events 3-month Mean SST Anomaly El Nino (Dec.1997-Feb.1998) red (blue) shading: above (below) normal SST La Nina (Dec.1998-Feb.1999) Regression of 3-month Mean SST on NINO3 DJF JJA OLR Anomaly (in El Nino and La Nina) El Nino (Dec.1997-Feb.1998) La Nina (Dec.1998-Feb.1999) blue (red) shading: stronger(weaker)-than-normal convective activity El Nino Composite Map (OLR) Dec.-Feb. Jun.-Aug. blue (red) Contour: stronger(weaker)-than-normal convective activity El Nino Composite of Stream Function Anomaly (DJF) 200hPa 850hPa blue (red) Contour: cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation anomaly in N.H. El Nino Composite of Stream Function Anomaly (JJA) 200hPa 850hPa blue (red) Contour: cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation anomaly in N.H. El Nino/La Nina Composite of 500hPa Height TNH Pattern PNA Pattern WP Pattern El Nino (Dec.-Feb.) La Nina (Dec.-Feb.) blue (red) Contour: negative(positive) anomaly 4. Mudden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Time flow MJO: intraseasonal oscillation propagating eastward along the equator with 30-60 days period Active Convection propagating eastward Westerly Burst Africa Indonesia South America Monitoring of MJO blue shading: divergence Time-Longitude Section of 5-day mean 200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomaly (5S-5N) （from Mar. to Aug. 2002） Northward Propagation of Active Convection Active Phase of MJO Time-Latitude Section of 5-day mean OLR averaged in 65-85E （from Apr. to Sep.2002） 5. Asian Summer Monsoon • • • • Onset : mid-May over Indochina Peninsula Withdrawal : mid-October Tibetan High at upper level (easterly wind) Thermal Low pressure at lower level (westerly wind) Subtropical High L Somali Jet Active Convection Sea level Pressure, 850hPa wind, and OLR（Jul.2003） Normal Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon (1) (Convective Activity and Lower Level Circulation) Normal Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon (2) (Convective Activity and Higher Level Circulation) Summer (JJA) Mean Anomalous Circulation in 2003 3-month Mean 850-hPa Stream Function and OLR 3-month Mean Temperature Anomaly (Normalized) Category 3-month Precipitation Ratio Category Monthly Mean Anomalous Circulation in 2003 Summer L Jun. L H L L H H Jul. H H H L Aug. 850-hPa Stream Function and OLR 200-hPa Stream Function and OLR Summer Asian Monsoon OLR Index (SAMOI) SAMOI(A) : Activity W+E SAMOI(N) : Northward Shift N－S SAMOI(W) : Westward Shift W－E SAMOI(N) SAMOI(W) SAMOI(A) 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 2003 2002 2001 2000 000 1999 999 1998 998 1997 997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 985 1984 984 983 1983 1981 1980 -1.5 1982 982 -1.0 1979 Time Series of SAMOI averaged in summer (Jun.-Aug.) (1979-2003) 2.0 SAMOI-A and Summer (JJA) Mean Temperature in Japan SAMOI-A 1.5 北日本T 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 -3.0 1987 -1.5 1985 -2.0 1983 -1.0 1981 -1.0 1979 -0.5 Time Series of Summer(JJA) Averaged SAMOI-A(Pink Line) and The Temperature in Northern Japan (Blue Line) Correlation Coefficient : +0.78 ( in 1979-2003) Significantly Positive Correlation between SAMOI-A and the Temperature in Northern, Eastern and Western Japan Products Online (through TCC web site): • Monthly Report on Climate System (MRCS), • Asian monsoon monitoring, • stratospheric circulation monitoring, • statistics research. Offline: • MRCS, • Annual Report on Climate System (as CD-ROM), • MRCS / Separated Volumes, Menu of Climate System Monitoring on the TCC Web Site 7. Climate Diagnostic Meeting • Held around 10th every month • Attendance : forecasters, senior science officers, etc. • To brief and discuss current conditions of climate system • To share the consensus of the current conditions 8. Future Plans • • • • To improve long-range forecast To employ new diagnostic tools To examine the climate system further To improve and increase the products on the web site
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