U.S. Wheat Associates Weekly Price Report March 20, 2015 Export Region Great Lakes Gulf of Mexico Pacific N. West APR (K15) (nearbys) FOB $/bu Percent Protein 12% (Dry) Moisture Basis NS/DNS 13.0 (14.8) NS/DNS 13.5 (15.3) NS/DNS 14.0 (15.9) NS/DNS 13.0 (14.8) NS/DNS 13.5 (15.3) NS/DNS 14.0 (15.9) HRW Ord HRW 11.0 (12.5) HRW 11.5 (13.1) HRW 12.0 (13.6) HRW 12.5 (14.2) SRW NS/DNS 13.0 (14.8) NS/DNS 13.5 (15.3) NS/DNS 14.0 (15.9) HRW Ord HRW 11.5 (13.1) HRW 12.0 (13.6) HRW 13.0 (14.8) SW Unspecified SW 10.5 (11.9) Max SW 9.5 (10.8) Max WW with 10% Club WW with 20% Club M M M M M M K K K K K C M M M K K K K $ $ $ $ $ 6.45 6.75 7.25 7.60 7.90 8.50 6.90 6.95 7.00 7.05 7.10 6.45 8.30 8.40 8.60 7.15 7.20 7.25 7.70 6.90 7.90 8.90 8.25 8.55 APR (K15) MAY (K15) JUN (N15) JUL (N15) AUG (U15) SEP (U15) OCT (Z15) $/bu $/MT $/MT ¢/bu $/MT ¢/bu $/MT ¢/bu $/MT ¢/bu $/MT ¢/bu $/MT ¢/bu $/MT ¢/bu Year Ago (nearbys) $/MT N/A N/A N/A 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.16 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 N/A N/A N/A 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 6 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 237 248 266 279 290 312 253 255 257 259 261 237 305 308 316 263 264 266 283 254 290 327 303 314 55 85 135 170 200 260 120 125 130 135 140 115 240 250 270 145 150 155 200 6.90 7.90 8.90 8.25 8.55 237 248 266 279 290 312 253 255 257 259 261 237 307 310 318 263 264 266 283 254 290 327 303 314 55 85 135 170 200 260 120 125 130 135 140 115 245 255 275 145 150 155 200 6.90 7.90 8.90 8.25 8.55 238 249 268 282 293 316 252 254 255 257 259 233 297 301 308 263 265 266 283 254 290 327 303 314 55 85 135 175 205 265 110 115 120 125 130 100 215 225 245 140 145 150 195 6.90 7.90 8.90 8.25 8.55 238 249 268 282 293 316 252 254 255 257 259 233 293 297 305 261 263 265 281 257 294 331 307 318 55 85 135 175 205 265 110 115 120 125 130 100 205 215 235 135 140 145 190 7.00 8.00 9.00 8.35 8.65 241 252 271 283 294 317 256 258 259 261 263 234 291 294 302 263 265 265 276 257 294 331 307 318 55 85 135 170 200 260 110 115 120 125 130 95 190 200 220 130 135 135 165 7.00 8.00 9.00 8.35 8.65 241 252 271 283 294 317 256 258 259 261 263 234 287 291 298 263 265 265 276 257 294 331 307 318 55 85 135 170 200 260 110 115 120 125 130 95 180 190 210 130 135 135 165 7.00 8.00 9.00 8.35 8.65 245 256 274 285 296 318 267 268 270 272 274 239 291 295 302 268 270 272 283 257 294 331 307 318 55 85 135 165 195 255 125 130 135 140 145 95 180 190 210 130 135 140 170 7.00 8.00 9.00 8.35 8.65 314 317 328 361 376 387 350 351 353 355 359 297 358 361 365 333 335 337 350 288 292 299 294 309 week change FOB Basis FOB Basis FOB Basis FOB Basis FOB Basis FOB Basis FOB Basis Durum: a range of prices are available depending upon various quality attributes. Futures Settlements as of March 20, 2015 Chicago BOT SRW Kansas City BOT HRW Minneapolis MGE NS/DNS Chicago BOT Corn Chicago BOT Soybeans Legend: Cash: Convert: Grey positions not quoted on specific exchange MAY (K15) $/MT 194.74 209.25 216.60 151.59 357.78 MAY (K15) $/bu 5.3000 5.6950 5.8950 3.8500 9.7375 week change JUL (N15) $/bu $/bu 0.2800 5.3375 0.3025 5.7500 0.2210 5.9375 0.0450 3.9275 (0.0025) 9.7800 week week change AUG (Q15) change SEP (U15) $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu 0.3050 5.4275 0.3125 5.8625 0.2135 6.0150 0.0475 4.0025 0.0000 9.7725 0.0075 9.6250 week week change NOV (X15) change $/bu $/bu $/bu 0.3025 0.3100 0.2130 0.0475 (0.0025) 9.5625 0.0300 week DEC (Z15) change $/bu $/bu 5.5600 0.3000 6.0050 0.2900 6.1160 0.2140 4.0925 0.0450 M = Minneapolis Grain Exchange; K = Kansas City Board of Trade; C = Chicago Board of Trade; $ = cash price quote; N/A = quote not available; closed = Great Lakes are closed to vessels for winter; ¢/bu = cents per bushel; Futures Contract Month: H = March; K = May; N = July; U = September; Z = December NS/DNS=Northern Spring/Dark Northern Spring (subclasses of Hard Red Spring); HRW=Hard Red Winter; SRW=Soft Red Winter; SW=Soft White; WW=Western White (White Club & Soft White) F.O.B.= "Free on board" - Seller is responsible for placing grain at the end of the loading spout. Buyer is responsible for providing the ocean vessel and for all other costs after the grain is delivered on board. Basis: The difference between the cash price and futures month for specific quality, shipping period and geographical location. Durum, SW and WW are quoted in dollars per bushel ($/bu.) rather than basis for each contract month. To compute cash price, add basis level and current futures to get price per bushel. Multiply by 36.743 to get price per metric ton. Example: Basis = 70 and Future Price = $9.00, the price per bushel is $9.00 + .70 = $9.70/bu. Price per metric ton is $9.70 * 36.743 = $356/MT. All prices are based upon U.S. number two grade or better as certified by the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS). week JAN (F16) change MAR (H16) $/bu $/bu $/bu 5.6850 6.1175 6.2300 4.1875 9.6100 0.0300 9.6250 week change $/bu 0.3050 0.2775 0.2075 0.0500 0.0300 U.S. Wheat Associates Weekly Price Report (page 2) March 20, 2015 U.S. dollars/metric ton Handymax 40-46 TMT 13 26 Panamax 54+ TMT 25 25 35 52 42 39 30 25 70 65 60 65 39 42 22 27 52 35 27 26 18 34 25 24 16 Freight Index** Week Ending 3/20/2015 3/13/2015 3/6/2015 2/27/2015 2/13/2015 2/6/2015 1/30/2015 1/23/2015 1/16/2015 1/9/2015 1/2/2015 12/26/2014 12/19/2014 12/12/2014 12/5/2014 11/28/2014 11/21/2014 11/14/2014 11/7/2014 10/31/2014 10/24/2014 10/16/2014 10/10/2014 10/3/2014 9/26/2014 9/19/2014 9/12/2014 9/5/2014 8/29/2014 General Index 328.8 327.9 324.7 323.6 323.8 332.1 342.1 358.2 363.0 372.8 382.1 381.9 384.3 409.3 416.8 422.6 415.5 431.0 436.1 433.4 422.5 415.5 422.7 425.3 425.5 428.8 425.3 433.0 430.6 Grain Freight Index 404.3 403.5 397.6 397.0 395.1 408.5 420.2 441.9 445.8 458.4 468.4 468.4 471.2 501.4 505.9 509.2 493.6 512.6 516.1 514.8 511.0 502.9 511.7 514.7 511.5 514.8 508.5 517.9 517.1 Number of Fixtures 524 553 492 551 528 518 510 552 571 507 204 250 453 555 476 453 634 484 534 613 585 608 523 517 469 530 480 474 424 Ocean Freight Rate Indices 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Grain Nov-14 Jan-15 General Egyptian Freight Estimates 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Gulf origin Jan-15 Mar-15 PNW origin Selected Exchange Rates 1.00 1.40 Sources: *Trade representatives and recent shipments, **Maritime Research, Inc., ***Nominal Major Currencies, Federal Reserve Board 0.95 1.35 Summary of Foreign Currency Exchange Rates (versus $1 U.S. dollar) Week Ending Index*** Argentina Australia 3/20/15 N/A 8.788 1.299 3/13/15 117.92 8.773 1.307 3/6/15 116.44 8.740 1.282 2/27/15 114.69 8.716 1.273 3/20/14 103.57 7.951 1.098 3/20/10 101.91 3.866 1.088 1 year change 14.36 10.53% 18.33% 5 year change 16.02 127.35% 19.43% Brazil 3.248 3.128 2.983 2.873 2.338 1.797 38.96% 80.72% Canada 1.265 1.271 1.245 1.245 1.116 1.015 13.33% 24.58% Egypt 7.606 7.605 7.606 7.607 6.978 5.518 8.99% 37.83% EU 0.932 0.945 0.905 0.884 0.719 0.738 29.64% 26.37% Japan 120.540 121.310 119.950 119.010 101.625 90.512 18.61% 33.18% Russia 59.971 61.476 61.402 60.831 36.154 29.299 65.88% 104.69% euro/US dollar xx Note: Rates for freight leaving the Great Lakes are quoted for 18,000 MT "Salties." 0.90 1.30 0.85 1.25 0.80 1.20 0.75 1.15 0.70 1.10 0.65 0.60 Mar-14 May-14 1.05 Jul-14 euro Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Canadian dollar The weekly prices as reported by U.S. Wheat Associates are compiled through research from numerous market sources, including U.S. wheat exporters of all classes from various U.S. ports. The prices reported are representative of the value of number two grade and the proteins indicated. They are not intended to represent offers nor should importers of U.S. wheat rely upon them as such. Additional factors may alter these prices significantly. These factors may include: (1) payment terms (differing from cash against documents which are the terms used in the U.S. Wheat Associates price report); (2) various quality factors, and method of quality certification; (3) loading terms (USW prices represent Free on Board and do not include loading rate guarantees, stevedoring costs or other elevator tariff charges); (4) different delivery periods than indicated in monthly prices reported by U. S. Wheat Associates. U.S. Wheat Associates recommends regular contact with exporters of U.S. wheat in order to receive offers representative of your requirements. These contracts would allow importers to review contract terms and better understand the U.S. grading system, role and function of the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS). Contact: For questions, please contact Casey Chumrau at (703) 650-0241 or [email protected]. Canadian/US dollar Handy 25-30 TMT 14 37 40 15 30 47 33 26 $/metric ton Ocean Freight Rate Estimates by Origin* Export Import Region Region US Gulf Mexico (Veracruz) W. South America (Peru/Ecu) S. South America (Chile) N. South America (Colombia) E. South America (Brazil) West Africa (Nigeria) East Mediterranean (Italy) West Mediterranean (Morocco) Middle East (Egypt) Japan Mid Atlantic N. South America (Venezuela) West Africa (Nigeria) Middle East (Egypt) St. Lawrence N. South America (Venezuela) Europe/Rotterdam Middle East (Egypt) Great Lakes East Mediterranean (Italy) West Mediterranean (Spain) Rotterdam West Africa (Morocco/Algeria) PNW W. South America (Peru/Ecu) S. South America (Chile) N. South America (Colombia) Middle East (Egypt) East Africa (Djibouti/Mombasa) South Asia (Mal/Indon/Phil/Sing) Taiwan South Korea Japan Nearby Futures Contract Prices 10 200 9 180 cents/bushel XXl 8 $/bushel HRW Basis at PNW and Gulf Ports (ordinary protein) 220 7 160 140 120 100 80 6 60 40 5 20 0 Mar-14 4 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 KBOT Sep-14 Nov-14 MGE Jan-15 Mar-15 180 400 160 350 140 cents/bushel XX cents/bushel XX 450 300 250 200 Gulf 80 60 40 50 20 Nov-14 PNW HRS 14 Jan-15 0 Mar-14 Mar-15 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 ords G.L. HRS 14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Jan-15 Mar-15 12% protein HRW Cash Prices at the Gulf SW and SRW Nearby Cash Prices 330 12 310 10 8 270 $/bushel $/metric ton 290 March 20, 2015 Weekly Price Report (page 3) U.S. Wheat Associates Mar-15 100 100 Gulf HRS 14 Jan-15 120 150 Sep-14 Nov-14 HRW Protein Premiums - PNW 500 Jul-14 Sep-14 PNW 200 May-14 Jul-14 CBOT HRS Basis at Various Ports 0 Mar-14 May-14 250 230 6 4 210 2 190 170 Mar-14 0 May-14 Jul-14 PNW SW Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Gulf SRW Custom graphs of historic nearby cash prices may be accessed at: http://www.uswheat.org/priceReports/nearbyCash Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 KCBOT Futures Nov-14 Gulf HRW basis Basis and cash prices for different delivery months are also available at: http://www.uswheat.org/priceReports/deliverymonth U.S. Wheat Associates Weekly Price Report Highlights: March 20, 2015 Daily Settlement Prices (MAY15) * Wheat futures closed higher this week after a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar index, which makes U.S. 6 5.2 products more competitive globally. Futures also found support from dry weather in the U.S. Southern Plains and parts of Europe and Russia. Projections for lower U.S. planted acres also boosted markets. Gains were limited due to record world supply and high U.S. prices compared to competitors. KCBT May wheat added 30 cents to close at $5.70/bu, CBOT gained 28 cents to $5.30/bu and MGEX closed 22 cents higher at $5.90/bu. CBOT May corn gained 5 cents to $3.85/bu and CBOT May soybeans closed unchanged at $9.74/bu. 4.8 * Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring only. Premiums for Dark Northern Spring will vary. $/bu 5.6 SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium. 4.4 3/16/15 3/17/15 3/18/15 CBOT KCBT 3/19/15 3/20/15 MGEX 56.0 million acres, compared to USDA’s official 2014 estimate of 56.8 million acres planted. A grower survey by Farm Futures magazine forecast total 2015 seedings at 55.6 million acres. * According to USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report, wheat sales of 391,900 metric tons for delivery in the Wheat Futures Forward Curve 2014/2015 marketing year were within trade expectations of 350,000 to 550,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports through March 12, 2015 were 22.6 MMT, 23% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 29.5 MMT. USDA forecasts 2014/15 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 24.5 MMT. 6.40 6.00 $/bu * Analyst group Informa Economics projected total U.S. wheat seedings for the 2015 harvest will fall to * The Baltic Panamax Index closed at 617 on Friday, up from 585 last week. 5.60 * The US Dollar Index closed at 98.16 this week, down from 100.72 last Friday. 5.20 4.80 4.40 MAY 15 JUL 15 CBOT SEP 15 KCBT MGEX DEC 15
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