Earnings Surprise Monitor - Dr. Ed Yardeni`s Economics Network

Quant Briefing:
Earnings Surprise Monitor
Yardeni Research, Inc.
August 12, 2015
Dr. Ed Yardeni
516-972-7683
[email protected]
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306
[email protected]
Please visit our sites at
www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenue Surprise Summary
S&P 500 Sectors’ Earnings Surprise for Current Quarter
S&P 500 Sectors’ Revenue Surprise for Current Quarter
S&P 500 Historical Earnings Surprise
S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Earnings Surprises
S&P 500 Historical Revenue Surprise
S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Revenue Surprises
August 12, 2015 / Earnings Surprise Monitor
1
2
3
4
5-6
7
8-9
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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S&P 500 Earnings & Revenue Surprise Summary
Table 1A: S&P 500 Earnings Surprise (as of August 12, 2015)
% Surprise
Q2-2015
Q1-2015
Q4-2014
Q3-2014
Q2-2014
Q1-2014
Q4-2013
Q3-2013
Q2-2013
Q1-2013
Q4-2012
Q3-2012
Q2-2012
Q1-2012
Q4-2011
Q3-2011
Q2-2011
Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q2-2010
Q1-2010
Q4-2009
Q3-2009
Q2-2009
Q1-2009
Y/Y % Growth
5.4
6.8
4.4
4.6
2.8
5.2
3.3
2.2
3.0
4.4
5.2
4.4
4.2
4.8
4.8
6.2
6.0
7.8
6.6
6.7
9.9
15.0
6.9
17.1
17.1
5.5
1.5
2.1
6.8
10.0
7.9
4.1
9.4
4.9
4.1
3.9
6.2
0.6
7.0
7.8
9.0
21.9
11.8
19.7
211.1
39.1
27.9
64.0
-/+
-11.4
-26.7
-33.8
% Positive
69.9
67.7
68.9
73.1
66.6
67.8
64.8
66.6
66.0
65.6
68.1
64.4
66.7
66.3
62.7
69.6
70.5
67.1
69.6
72.3
74.5
77.4
72.2
78.8
73.4
64.9
% Negative
21.8
24.3
20.7
18.9
23.4
22.7
23.9
22.9
24.5
25.3
22.4
25.5
24.5
23.5
27.2
20.3
19.4
22.7
21.1
18.5
16.1
15.1
17.7
14.6
19.0
26.7
# Companies
455
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
Table 1B: S&P 500 Revenue Surprise
% Surprise
Q2-2015
Q1-2015
Q4-2014
Q3-2014
Q2-2014
Q1-2014
Q4-2013
Q3-2013
Q2-2013
Q1-2013
Q4-2012
Q3-2012
Q2-2012
Q1-2012
Q4-2011
Q3-2011
Q2-2011
Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q2-2010
Q1-2010
Q4-2009
Q3-2009
Q2-2009
Q1-2009
0.6
0.0
1.6
0.3
1.3
0.0
0.3
1.0
0.9
-0.9
0.4
-1.2
-0.3
1.1
0.2
1.5
2.8
1.1
1.8
0.7
0.0
1.2
1.4
0.2
0.1
-0.1
Y/Y % Growth
-4.0
-3.9
1.9
4.2
3.2
2.7
1.1
3.4
2.0
-0.2
1.8
0.6
0.2
5.4
6.7
10.9
11.8
9.5
8.4
8.5
7.2
11.4
4.5
-11.7
-14.1
-10.6
% Positive
48.1
43.2
57.9
59.7
63.8
52.2
61.4
54.0
53.4
45.8
63.9
39.9
40.4
64.9
55.7
60.4
73.4
66.3
64.0
60.6
61.1
67.9
69.5
58.3
49.2
36.5
% Negative
51.9
56.8
42.1
40.3
36.0
47.8
38.4
46.0
46.6
54.0
35.3
59.9
59.6
35.1
44.3
39.6
26.6
33.7
36.0
39.4
38.9
32.1
30.5
41.5
60.6
63.5
# Companies
453
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
% surprise = difference between actual and consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research, Inc.
Page 1 / August 12, 2015 / Earnings Surprise Monitor
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S&P 500 Sectors’ Earnings Surprise for Current Quarter
Table 2A: S&P 500 Aggregate Earnings Surprise Q2-2015 (as of August 12, 2015)
Sector
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Health Care
Industrials
Information Technology
Materials
Telecommunication Services
Utilities
S&P 500
% EPS
Surprise
8.0
4.9
4.2
6.3
7.3
3.9
3.7
5.2
3.5
4.0
5.4
Expected
Actual Y/Y
%
% with
Y/Y EPS
EPS Growth Companies Positive EPS
Growth (%)
(%)
Reported
Surprise
4.4
-2.6
-57.6
14.7
5.0
-4.1
3.0
2.7
5.5
0.3
-3.7
12.8
2.2
-55.9
22.0
12.7
-0.4
6.9
8.1
9.2
4.3
1.5
74.7
81.1
100.0
98.9
92.9
95.5
86.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.0
74.2
73.3
61.0
62.1
94.2
76.2
68.4
60.7
40.0
53.3
69.9
% with
Negative
EPS
Surprise
16.1
16.7
31.7
29.9
0.0
17.5
22.8
21.4
40.0
43.3
21.8
% with
% with
Negative
Positive Y/Y
Y/Y EPS
EPS Growth
Growth
61.3
63.3
19.5
62.1
86.5
68.3
64.9
64.3
40.0
53.3
61.5
35.5
33.3
80.5
36.8
9.6
31.7
31.6
35.7
60.0
43.3
36.5
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research.
Table 2B: Slices & Dices
Sector/Industries
S&P 500 ex-Energy
S&P 500 ex-Financials
S&P 500 ex-Tech
S&P 500 REITs Composite
S&P 500 Retail Composite
S&P 500 Discretionary Retail
S&P 500 Staples Retail
S&P 500 Industrials Composite
S&P 500 Transportation
S&P 500 Industrials ex-GE
S&P 500 ex-Apple
Information Technology ex-Apple
% EPS
Surprise
5.5
5.2
5.8
67.6
6.5
8.0
5.5
5.3
2.8
3.2
5.6
4.2
Expected
Actual Y/Y
%
% with
Y/Y EPS
EPS Growth Companies Positive EPS
Growth (%)
(%)
Reported
Surprise
4.4
-7.9
-5.1
-1.1
4.6
7.1
3.0
-8.9
10.1
-0.4
-5.2
-5.6
10.2
-3.1
0.4
65.8
11.4
15.7
8.7
-4.0
13.2
2.8
0.1
-1.7
90.2
89.3
91.7
100.0
47.2
41.4
71.4
88.1
100.0
95.4
91.0
86.2
70.8
71.7
70.1
70.8
64.7
58.3
80.0
73.2
76.9
75.8
69.8
67.9
% with
Negative
EPS
Surprise
20.8
19.8
21.6
25.0
29.4
33.3
20.0
17.5
23.1
17.7
21.8
23.2
% with
% with
Negative
Positive Y/Y
Y/Y EPS
EPS Growth
Growth
65.7
61.4
61.1
62.5
64.7
50.0
100.0
61.5
76.9
69.4
61.5
64.3
32.1
36.4
37.2
37.5
23.5
33.3
0.0
36.3
23.1
30.6
36.6
32.1
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research.
Page 2 / August 12, 2015 / Earnings Surprise Monitor
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S&P 500 Sectors’ Revenue Surprise for Current Quarter
Table 3A: S&P 500 Aggregate Sales Surprise Q2-2015 (as of August 12, 2015)
Sector
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Health Care
Industrials
Information Technology
Materials
Telecommunication Services
Utilities
S&P 500
% Sales
Surprise
-0.1
-2.3
5.3
1.7
1.4
-0.3
0.4
-1.1
-0.4
-4.6
0.6
Expected
Y/Y Sales
Growth (%)
Actual Y/Y
Sales
Growth (%)
%
Companies
Reported
1.7
3.5
-35.1
2.3
6.8
-3.5
3.7
-8.9
2.8
-0.2
-4.6
1.6
1.0
-31.7
4.0
8.3
-3.8
4.1
-9.9
2.4
-4.8
-4.0
74.7
81.1
100.0
96.6
92.9
95.5
86.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
90.6
Actual Y/Y
Sales
Growth (%)
%
Companies
Reported
% with
Positive
Sales
Surprise
53.2
33.3
48.8
61.2
69.2
30.2
56.1
28.6
20.0
23.3
48.1
% with
Negative
Sales
Surprise
46.8
66.7
51.2
38.8
30.8
69.8
43.9
71.4
80.0
76.7
51.9
% with
% with
Positive Y/Y Negative Y/Y
Sales
Sales
Growth
Growth
59.7
46.7
2.4
68.2
82.7
42.9
59.6
35.7
80.0
20.0
51.7
40.3
53.3
97.6
31.8
17.3
57.1
40.4
64.3
20.0
80.0
48.3
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research.
Table 3B: Slices & Dices
Sector
S&P 500 ex-Energy
S&P 500 ex-Financials
S&P 500 ex-Tech
S&P 500 REITs Composite
S&P 500 Retail Composite
S&P 500 Discretionary Retail
S&P 500 Staples Retail
S&P 500 Industrials Composite
S&P 500 Transportation
S&P 500 Industrials ex-GE
S&P 500 ex-Apple
Information Technology ex-Apple
% Sales
Surprise
-0.1
0.4
0.6
1.0
-0.7
1.1
-1.6
0.7
-1.6
-0.7
0.6
0.4
Expected
Y/Y Sales
Growth (%)
1.7
-5.5
-5.5
4.3
14.0
11.7
15.0
-6.0
-0.1
-1.2
-5.2
-1.9
1.7
-5.2
-4.9
5.3
13.2
13.0
13.2
-5.3
-1.7
-1.8
-4.6
-1.6
89.8
89.3
91.2
100.0
47.2
41.4
71.4
88.1
100.0
95.4
90.6
86.2
% with
Positive
Sales
Surprise
48.1
45.1
47.0
62.5
29.4
41.7
0.0
48.6
7.7
29.0
48.0
55.4
% with
Negative
Sales
Surprise
51.9
54.9
53.0
37.5
70.6
58.3
100.0
51.4
92.3
71.0
52.0
44.6
% with
% with
Positive Y/Y Negative Y/Y
Sales
Sales
Growth
Growth
56.6
47.8
50.5
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.8
38.5
43.5
51.5
58.9
43.4
52.2
49.5
25.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
49.2
61.5
56.5
48.5
41.1
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research.
Page 3 / August 12, 2015 / Earnings Surprise Monitor
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S&P 500 Historical Earnings Surprise
20
15
Figure 1.
20
S&P 500 NET EARNINGS SURPRISE*
(percent)
15
10
10
Q2
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
yardeni.com
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
-25
* Percentage of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings are above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report.
Earnings surprise capped at -20% during Q4-2008.
Source: Yardeni Research and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
100
Figure 2.
100
S&P 500 POSITIVE & NEGATIVE EARNINGS SURPRISES*
(percent of companies)
80
80
Q2
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
Q2
-40
-60
-20
-40
yardeni.com
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
-60
* Relative to consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report.
Source: Yardeni Research and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 4 / August 12, 2015 / Earnings Surprise Monitor
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Earnings Surprises
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
-75
-100
10
8
Figure 3.
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
200
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
earnings surprise (%)
% of companies with positive and negative earnings
surprise (percent)
Q2
150
100
Q2
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
CONSUMER STAPLES
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
100
Q2
Q2
4
25
0
0
20
-25
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
ENERGY
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q2
10
5
-25
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
FINANCIALS
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q2
50
0
-25
-25
-50
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
75
25
Q2
0
-50
100
FINANCIALS
25
-75
50
0
-5
50
75
25
Q2
0
75
-50
100
ENERGY
15
-10
75
50
2
25
-50
125
CONSUMER STAPLES
6
-2
50
-50
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
HEALTH CARE
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-75
125
HEALTH CARE
Q2
100
75
Q2
50
25
0
yardeni.com
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-25
-50
Source: Yardeni Research and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 5 / August 12, 2015 / Earnings Surprise Monitor
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Earnings Surprises
25
20
Figure 4.
INDUSTRIALS
INDUSTRIALS
earnings surprise (%)
% of companies with positive and negative earnings
surprise (percent)
15
Q2
10
5
Q2
0
-5
25
20
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
125
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
100
Q2
15
10
Q2
60
-25
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
MATERIALS
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
100
Q2
-25
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
100
Q2
Q2
0
-50
-20
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
UTILITIES
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q2
5
-100
100
UTILITIES
10
50
0
Q2
0
-5
50
0
-10
15
-50
150
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
10
-30
50
0
Q2
0
20
75
25
20
30
-50
125
MATERIALS
40
-20
50
0
0
80
75
25
5
-5
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
-50
yardeni.com
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-100
Source: Yardeni Research and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 6 / August 12, 2015 / Earnings Surprise Monitor
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S&P 500 Historical Revenue Surprise
3.5
3.0
Figure 5.
3.5
S&P 500 NET REVENUE SURPRISE*
(percent)
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
Q2
.5
.5
.0
.0
-.5
-.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5
-2.0
yardeni.com
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-2.0
* Percentage of S&P 500 companies that reported revenues are above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report.
Source: Yardeni Research and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
100
80
Figure 6.
100
S&P 500 POSITIVE & NEGATIVE REVENUE SURPRISES*
(percent of companies)
80
60
60
Q2
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
Q2
-60
-80
-60
yardeni.com
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-80
* Relative to consensus estimate at the time of the revenue report.
Source: Yardeni Research and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 7 / August 12, 2015 / Earnings Surprise Monitor
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S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Revenue Surprises
6
4
Figure 7.
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
200
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
revenue surprise (%)
150
% of companies with positive and negative revenue
surprise (percent)
2
100
Q2
0
Q2
0
-2
-4
3
2
-50
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
CONSUMER STAPLES
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
CONSUMER STAPLES
Q2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
12
9
Q2
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
ENERGY
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q2
Q2
-50
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
FINANCIALS
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q2
-25
-50
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
HEALTH CARE
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q2
Q2
1
-75
100
HEALTH CARE
2
50
0
0
-50
-1
-2
50
0
-4
3
75
25
Q2
0
-75
100
FINANCIALS
4
4
50
-25
-3
-8
75
0
0
8
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
-75
-100
25
3
12
-100
100
ENERGY
6
-6
50
yardeni.com
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-100
Source: Yardeni Research and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 8 / August 12, 2015 / Earnings Surprise Monitor
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S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Revenue Surprises
6
4
Figure 8.
INDUSTRIALS
200
INDUSTRIALS
revenue surprise (%)
150
% of companies with positive and negative revenue
surprise (percent)
2
0
100
Q2
Q2
-2
-4
6
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Q2
2
Q2
0
9
6
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
MATERIALS
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
Q2
-50
-9
1.0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
100
50
Q2
.0
Q2
-.5
20
15
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
UTILITIES
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
100
Q2
5
0
-10
yardeni.com
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
50
0
-50
Q2
2009
-100
150
UTILITIES
-5
0
-50
10
-15
-100
150
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
.5
-1.0
50
0
-6
1.5
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
-75
100
Q2
-3
-100
150
MATERIALS
3
-12
0
-50
4
-2
50
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-100
-150
Source: Yardeni Research and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 9 / August 12, 2015 / Earnings Surprise Monitor
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