GO Transit Business Case

Photo Credit: Randy Landicho
GO Transit Business Case
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
IBI Group
February 20th, 2014
IBI Group
Name of Presentation
GO Transit Business Case
Content of Report
• Background/Study Purpose
• Market Potential -> Ridership Estimate
• Service
S i C
Concepts
t ->
>R
Routes,
t
S
Service
i L
Levels,
l
Assumptions
• Costs and Revenues:
– Ridership, Fare and Revenues
– Operating Costs: GO, Brantford, Contracted
– Other – Operating, Capital
• Brantford Operated Service Details
• Benefits of service
• Conclusions
• Recommendations
IBI Group
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
GO Transit Business Case
February 20th, 2014
2
Study Purpose
• Overall purpose: Assess the feasibility of
expanding GO Transit service to Brantford:
– Determine the market potential
– Develop
D
l route
t concepts
t
– Estimate ridership, benefits, and costs
– Identify legislative and operational requirements
• Report to Metrolinx/GO Transit – basis for introducing
service to Brantford
IBI Group
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
GO Transit Business Case
February 20th, 2014
3
Existing Inter-Municipal Transit Service
• VIA Rail: Five daily trains per direction between
Brantford and Toronto’s Union Station.
• Greyhound: Five daily buses per direction between
Brantford and Hamilton GO Centre (via McMaster).
Four of these buses continue on to Toronto.
• GO Transit: Nine a.m. peak period trains from
Burlington/Aldershot GO stations. Accessible via car
from Brantford.
Brantford
Service Provider
Lowest Trip Cost
Number of AM Peak
Period Trips
One-Way Travel Time
Brantford-Toronto
VIA Rail
GO Transit (Aldershot)
$14.85
1
1:10
$8.45 + gas
9
~1:40
$4.13
1
0:55
Brantford-Hamilton
Greyhound
IBI Group
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
GO Transit Business Case
February 20th, 2014
4
Primary Travel Markets
• Hamilton: 8,700
,
daily
y round trips
p
– Regional economic and education node
– Hub for connections to Halton, Peel, Niagara
– Historic link to Brantford
• Waterloo Region: 4,400 daily round trips
– Historic
Hi t i lilink
k tto B
Brantford
tf d (C
(Cambridge)
b id )
• Toronto: 680 daily round trips
– Two thirds of current transit trips from Brantford to
the GTHA are destined for Toronto.
49%
23%
11%
Hamilton Waterloo
Halton
IBI Group
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
6%
4%
Peel
Toronto
3%
2%
Niagara Wellington
GO Transit Business Case
February 20th, 2014
1%
1%
York
Others
5
Transit Demand
• Basis for estimating Ridership:
– Licence plate survey at Burlington GO stations
– Existing
g VIA and Greyhound
y
ridership
p
– Existing auto demand between municipalities
(2012 Waterloo-Wellington-Brant Survey, TTS)
– Transit
T
it mode
d share:
h
comparison
i
tto other
th iintert
municipal links = 1% to 3%
Hamilton
Waterloo Region
Toronto
Mode
Mode
Mode
Mode
Trips
Share
Trips
Share
Trips
Share
6,450
74%
3,750
85%
350
52%
Auto Driver
2,200
25%
650
15%
150
22%
Auto Passenger
GO Transit
Park and Ride
Greyhound
VIA Rail
TOTAL
0
0
0
0%
80
11%
50
0
8,700
0.5%
0
100%
0
0
4,400
0%
0%
100%
25
75
680
4%
11%
100%
IBI Group
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
GO Transit Business Case
February 20th, 2014
6
Route Alternatives
IBI Group
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
GO Transit Business Case
February 20th, 2014
7
Route Alternatives
• Route 1A—Hamilton GO Centre via McMaster
– McMaster is a large generator of transit trips
– Connection
C
ti tto Toronto
T
t Union
U i express bus
b
• Route 1B—Hamilton GO Centre via Mohawk College
– Many Mohawk students in Brantford
– Connection to Toronto Union express bus
• Route 2—Aldershot GO Station via McMaster
– Connection to Lakeshore West rail line
• Route 3—GRT Ainslie Street Terminal
– Connection to GRT iXpress service
– Optional extension to Smart!Centres
IBI Group
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
GO Transit Business Case
February 20th, 2014
8
Service Options
• Peak-only service
– Three a.m. and four p.m. round trips, Monday to
Friday
• Monday-Friday service
– 13 daily round trips departing between 6 a.m. and
6 p.m.
• Monday-Saturday service
– Same as Monday-Friday service but with the
addition of 13 round trips on Saturday
IBI Group
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
GO Transit Business Case
February 20th, 2014
9
Ridership
• Hamilton routes have highest ridership potential
– McMaster, Mohawk
• Year
Y
one ridership
id hi will
ill b
be ~60%
60% off mature
t
ridership
id hi
• Growth will be approximately in line with Brantford
population growth
Daily Riders (Round Trip)
Peak-Only Service
Route
Full-Day Service
Year One Year Two
2021
Year One Year Two
2021
1A: Hamilton via McMaster
90
150
170
150
250
280
1B H
1B:
Hamilton
ilt via
i Mohawk
M h k
80
135
150
140
235
265
2: Aldershot via McMaster
70
120
135
100
175
200
3: Cambridge (Ainslie Street)
25
45
50
35
60
70
IBI Group
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
GO Transit Business Case
February 20th, 2014
10
Fare and Revenue Assumptions
• Assumes standard GO Transit Co-fare arrangement
• Considered GO fares (estimated by distance) and
existing VIA and Greyhound
• Fare revenue options - regular Brantford Transit fare
or premium fare (based on estimated GO fare)
• No “Presto”
Route
1A: Hamilton via McMaster
1B: Hamilton via Mohawk
2: Aldershot via McMaster
3: Cambridge (Ainslie Street)
IBI Group
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
Adult Cash Fare
$7.25
$7
25
$7.25
$7.70
$5.65
GO Transit Business Case
February 20th, 2014
Average Fare Paid
$5 10
$5.10
$5.10
$5.40
$4.00
11
Brantford Operation
• GO Transit suggested Brantford could operate the
service to expedite service implementation
• Two options:
p
– City
– Contracted (by City)
• Brantford could operate service at lower cost (than
GO) subject to the following conditions:
– Acquire new buses (min
(min. $60
$60,000
000 one
one-time
time cost)
– Provide parallel BL service ($50-60K/annum)
– Acquire PV operating licence
– Install signage, shelters, etc.
– Downtown terminal space
IBI Group
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
GO Transit Business Case
February 20th, 2014
12
Benefits
• Reduces reliance on the automobile
• Promotes economic and business opportunities
• Opens
O
up new employment
l
t and
d scholastic
h l ti
opportunities
• For residents with a car, provides them with the
opportunity to save money by leaving it at home
• Long term:
– Manage congestion
– Reduce air pollution
• Consistent
C
i t t with
ith P
Province’s
i
’ “Pl
“Places tto G
Grow”,
” 2011
TTS vs 2006 TTS data, GTAWest and Niagara
Corridor studies
IBI Group
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
GO Transit Business Case
February 20th, 2014
13
Net Operating Costs
Route
GO Transit Operation
Brantford Operation
Contracted Operation
1A: Hamilton via McMaster
Peak-Only
$332,000
$94,000
$109,000
Weekday
$673,000
$207,000
$236,000
Six-Day
$818,000
$250,000
$284,000
Peak-Only
$326,000
$116,000
$131,000
Weekday
$622 000
$622,000
$234 000
$234,000
$263 000
$263,000
Six-Day
$752,000
$282,000
$316,000
Peak-Only
$418,000
$124,000
$139,000
Weekday
$876,000
$295,000
$324,000
$1,067,000
$357,000
$391,000
P kO l
Peak-Only
$273 000
$273,000
$244 000
$244,000
$259 000
$259,000
Weekday
$524,000
$474,000
$503,000
Six-Day
$639,000
$572,000
$606,000
1B: Hamilton via Mohawk
2: Aldershot via McMaster
Six-Day
3: Cambridge (Ainslie Street)
GO Transit costs include payments to Brantford to cover the expenses of providing free connecting trips on
Brantford Transit, whereas Brantford and Contracted costs include the receipt of these payments. Cost do not
include capital – buses, stops, shelters, terminal, garage, park and ride.
IBI Group
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
GO Transit Business Case
February 20th, 2014
14
Conclusions
• Inter-municipal transit links are beneficial
• Hamilton is primary destination – 2011 TTS data
shows increased travel to Hamilton
Hamilton, less to Toronto
• Routes 1A and 1B have the highest ridership
potential
• Net cost to operate peak period service on these
routes is approximately $330,000/annum (GO costs)
• GO Transit
T
it service
i area will
ill h
have tto b
be expanded
d d via
i
a ministerial regulation
• Brantford could operate service at lower cost, subject
to several conditions (PV licence, capital)
IBI Group
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
GO Transit Business Case
February 20th, 2014
15
Recommendations
It is recommended that:
• Thi
This reportt b
be received;
i d
• Route alternatives 1A and 1B be endorsed as the
preferred inter-municipal
inter municipal service links for Brantford;
• Report be submitted to Metrolinx as the Business
Case justification for Metrolinx to amend its service
area to
t include
i l d th
the city
it off B
Brantford
tf d and
dC
County
t off
Brant and, further, as the basis for Metrolinx to
introduce new inter-cityy GO Transit bus transportation
p
service to Brantford.
IBI Group
City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan
GO Transit Business Case
February 20th, 2014
16

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