News Letter 26-Dec-2014

CNI Publications; Weekly Plattern
Weekly summary
Vol -1, No-I, 26 Dec, 2014, 09 pages
Editorial
Nifty movement was on expected lines. The no rolls
created hung market on the last day which resulted in
VWAP selling in the last 30 minutes. This was
obvious and patent reason for keeping the market flat
as no operator and FII would build positions at higher
prices. This is why even negative news were spread.
Whenever this happens Nifty blasts. I expect Nifty to
test 8888 in JAN 2015.
It is almost as if one were watching a tennis match.
The ball being hit from one end to the other. The bulls
and bears are fighting it out in the middle. No one
willing to give up even an inch.
What the New Year portends could be anybody's
guess but I would put my money on the bulls.
Reasons for this bullishness have been discussed in
the past but would once again enumerate...memory
people say is fallible, hence the necessity to repeat.
Change of the week
26-Dec-14
Rise /Gain
Sensex
27241
130
Nifty
8200
25
FII
DII
22-Dec-14
(289.9)
389.1
23-Dec-14
(406.1)
516.3
24-Dec-14
(1578.6)
509.0
26-Dec-14
39.9
417.2
(2234.7)
1831.6
Total
We are going from a high inflation high interest
scenario into a low inflation and falling rate one.
Prices of commodities and oil have fallen which would
have very beneficial effects on India's growth and
GDP.
India's exports constitute roughly 15% of GDP which
largely consists of services and unlike other countries
commodities form a negligible part of exports(India
incidentally is a net importer of commodities).
Turnover (` Cr)
FII
DII
Combined
26-Dec-14
25,455.6
12,885.1
38,340.7
26-Dec-14
Advances
738
As USA's tightening cycle begins China, Europe
Japan are likely to ease their monetary policy.
global liquidity may not be as affected as feared.
The govt of India is bent on ushering reforms.
latest ordinance on insurance, coal and defence
case in point.
Declines
708
Ratio
1.04
and
The
The
is a
The PM has taken upon himself to monitor stalled
projects worth USD 300 bn. The seriousness of his
call for India's growth is unquestionable.
Cni Research Limited
www.cniglobalbiz.com
1
A plethora of reforms in the run up to the budget is
expected. This budget is expected to be a watershed
budget and is likely to stun the naysayers.
With GDP growing corporate profits are likely to go
up, substantially. A huge re rating on the cards.
India may well emerge, once again, as a have to be
in location...and a favored destination. Make the most
of this phase as Baar, baar aate nahi aise mauke dil
ko lubhaney...dekh mauka Jaye na nikal!!!
Riding on a turbo charged 8 cylinder sleigh. Yes he
can now afford it what with the price of crude being
what it is it. I wonder if he can manage it next year as
the price may not be what it is today. As the price falls
some wells will have to be shut as they will become
uneconomical and as this happens repeatedly supply
glut will cease and prices will start to move
northwards.
The Santa in US would also be happy..a whopping
5% growth in a quarter. Coming fast on India's heels.
No wonder other currencies are reeling against this
onslaught. The USD is expected to move higher as
other countries are still unable to shake off the
slumber of very low growth and deflation. Whether
this augurs well for Indian equities is a question.
Generally with a strong dollar commodities often take
a back seat. This is very good for India as unlike
others it imports a lot of its requirements. Also the
expected growth of the Indian economy and falling
interest rates will help in keeping the USD benign.
Latin American countries are facing problems,Russia
is struggling and China is trying hard to avoid a hard
landing. All these will play a major role in determining
market movements in the next year.
reforms. These may turbo charge an already picking
up economy.
5 Top Gainer
Stock
26-Dec-14
22-Dec-14
% Gain
BF UTILITY
658.7
520.9
26.4
GUJ.GAS
786.8
647.0
21.6
FRL
101.5
86.2
17.8
IND.CEM
83.4
74.4
12.0
INDRA GAS
465.4
422.2
10.2
5 Top Losers
Stock
26-Dec-14
22-Dec-14
RASOYA.PRO
1.4
1.8
17.6
PMCFIN
96.6
105.3
8.3
KAILASH AUTO
8.2
8.8
7.5
SCI
58.6
63.3
7.4
AMTEK AUTO
167.5
177.9
5.8
Top 5 Picks By CNI 'A' Group
Company
CAIRN
SBI
TATA STEEL
RCOM
REL
Top 5 Picks By CNI 'B' Group
Company
In the immediate term no wagers on today's
expiry..can swing either ways. Rolls are happening
indicating strength and wouldn't be surprised if this
pause is used as a platform to launch the market into
a new orbit. Santa is normally expected to give gifts
hope the PM decides to do a Santa and shower gift a
in the form of much talked about and required
Cni Research Limited
% Loss
www.cniglobalbiz.com
CMI
GLOBAL OFFSHORE
RASI ELECTRODES
BASANT AGROTECH
ZENSAR TECH
2
Nifty range could be 8200 to 8300 for expiry as operators changed bets yesterday. But for sure Nifty is heading
for 8888 in JAN. Santa gift will be delivered on 26th Jan 2015. GLOBAL OFFSHORE could be smart pick for
2015. It has nothing to do with OIL fall as supply platform has no linking with OIL but is compulsory for oil as
well as gas exploration. The demand for the vessels may go down but for sure not below the demand levels.
Current demand is 200 vessels per year whereas supply is less than 60 vessels hence even if 30% demand
goes down there is no case of demand falling below 100 in any case. As reported by Zee Business the open
offer at Rs 900 to 1000 should come in mid JAN which gives 50% upside from the current levels. As per info
the open offer should come at Rs 1420 not 900 to 1000 but respect media views.
This is not a review of the latest blockbuster film. But the title is only to catch your eyeballs(sorry about that).
Many connotations can be assigned to this title. If taken in Hindi it means after having drunk...in a derogatory
sense it means after having imbibed a few under the belt..consumed alcohol. That goes with the weather and
the Yuletide spirit.
Another meaning could be kitno ka khoon peekay bazar is at this level. Both bulls and bears have lost blood on
this climb from sub 5000 levels on the Nifty. Off late though the bears are on the run trying to reorganize and to
prevent the market from sucking more blood.
Yet another could be an exclamation either when a pessimist says Nifty can go back to 7200 or when a bull
says 10000 on the cards. The normal response is Peekay bolta hai !
The reason for my meandering today is...maybe even tomorrow,the expiry day for December series,all bets are
off as anything can happen and no one would be the wiser. One can wager a bet and still cannot say with any
degree of confidence or offer higher odds in favor or against the outcome. This because the exchanges still
follow cash settlement rather than physical settlement of securities. So on D-day the tables can get reversed
on the last half hour. Such is life.
A few points I want to get to your notice.... The govt is most likely to use the Ordinance route to clear a plethora
of important and crucial bills.
Many announcements which will put India in a favorable light are expected ,soon.
Q4 results could be better than expected and the falling oil and commodity prices,the popularity of the PM with
business(pro business image) and the falling inflation and hence lower interest rate expectations will continue
to drive fii money into India. Only any drastic or catastrophic move by the govt can lead to an exodus (I don't
see that happening).
Take advantage of any fall,add to your positions and the best way to forget any unwanted advice is peetey
rehna, peekay jeena......Merry Christmas.
Results though not expected I do not think this is bad enough to kill the market sentiments. Nifty may be range
bound from 8200 to 8500 in the expiry. New range in Jan on fresh inflow. For me 8888 is seems coming soon.
Nifty has come all the way from 8000 to 8350 and those who were drawing calls of 7800 7200 where are they
now...?
Expiry is just 3 days away. Nifty has sharply moved up after a precipitous fall,FIIs have been sellers and rolls
into the next series are not as per average. Oil has moved up(thankfully for some)and the global markets have
just digested the Fed information that the dreaded interest rate increase is still some time away. All these put
together are classic ingredients for volatility to rule the roost. Also make for contents to serve a cocktail of the
Molotov type(petrol bombs).
Yes the situation is explosive and the yoyo like movements of the market will show how the going can get
rough.
Cni Research Limited
www.cniglobalbiz.com
3
A lot of PMs would have calculated their bonuses and headed for holidays(no such luck for the
undersigned..no holidays and also no bonus to add salt to the wounds)leaving the mere mortals to combat the
opposing forces(read bulls and bears)and try and make sense of the whole imbroglio.
Pointless to waste time on such trivia(brave and bold statement,what)...if the opportunity arises I.e. were the
market to fall make best use of this by buying into it remember God helps those who help themselves.
This bold act will help you to sing carols to usher in Christmas and then await the New Year by singing "aa chal
me tujhe main leke chaloon ek aisey gagan ke taley"...
Rolls have just started and if rolls do not catch momentum at higher prices then Nifty may correct a little bit
today. Even the exit poll on J and K have confused many in the street. Some says even 30 seats for BJP in
noncore state is good one for market whereas few hold that JK will still go in BJP pocket. Exit polls did 210 to
230 max in central election whereas BJP got 310 huge beat to the exit poll.
I feel exit poll may go wrong even this time. The projected Congress and N C could be a disaster and will go all
the way to BJP to change the tally to 44.
Tomorrow market might rally 200 points Nifty if J and K BJP tally cross 44 as many traders are short assuming
that may not get even 27.
Allocation is huge plus and now we are very close to end of the year hence from Friday we can see heavy
buying ( F R ) ahead of FII return. London Reuters carried a story suggesting RUSSIA will be out of BRICS and
if that happens India weightage in MSCI will be doubled. Our calculations suggest it could be 20 to 28 bn usd
fresh inflow for INDIA.
Cni Research Limited
www.cniglobalbiz.com
4
Next Week’s Events
GLOBAL STORY
Monday, 29-Dec-2014
4-Week Bill Announcement
3-Month Bill Auction
Tuesday,30-Dec-2014
Consumer Confidence
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
The unexpected happens in the stock market. This
is simply for us not for the market makers. For
market makers only the expected happens because
they are blessed with money power and system
favour. They are in a position to assess every day
based on the call and put positions which help them
to call for closing no. In fact CNI team try to read
the F O data according to which the game are set
and proved right in the last leg of expiry. Yet to be
100% precise is impossible. At 8000 we felt that
Nifty will bounce to 8450 but it halted at 8380.
Operators changed their base from 8500 to 8400.
On the second last day again the base was
changed to 8300 which was a clear signal of testing
lower base of 8200. It broke.
Wednesday,31-Dec-2014
Jobless Claim
Pending Home Sales
Thursday,01-Jan-2014
All Market Closed
Friday, 02-Jan-2014
PMI Manufacturing Index
Construction Spending
This created a feel among traders that now Nifty is
heading for 7700 all the way and they squared off
everything. On the first day again after opening gap
up market gave up and traded in negative zone
most of the time which help traders built huge
shorts. Market makers were though laughing on the
trades kept on building long positions. This was
again obvious and patent as no market maker will
give premium to build positions. Had that be the
intention then we could never see last 30 minutes
sell off through VWAP in the expiry.
Having explained what happened it will be prudent
to know what is in store.
The loss of J K keeps R S still away from BJP
control leaving them no choice to fall back on
ORDINACNES for getting bills passed. For market
the impact is huge. Reforms process speeding up
is good sign for GDP recovery. It will be a welcome
sign for FII.
Apart from reforms there could be EXIT of RUSSIA
from brics. This will raise INDIA MSCI weightage to
a great extent.
Cni Research Limited
www.cniglobalbiz.com
5
In any case after the fall of Brazil and China as favoured destination India allocation will be definitely high.
Before OBAMA comes to INDIA a plate of bilateral treaties will be ready to sign which will take forward INDO
US relationship which matters most for FII investors. The flow therefore has to rise.
On earning front we expect 200 bips rate cutting once first rate will be cut. Why the delay...? We believe that
the delay in rate cut is a calculated and well thought move by RBI. At present the flow of USD is matched by
RE selling by RBI. The $ which were bought by RBI were sold the Banks and at the same time bought in the
forward market hence RE was not allowed to rise. Before RBI cuts rate they will have to reverse their forward
positions and then sell $ aggressively which clears the way of RE rally. We believe RE can settle at 55 levels
by next Dec 2015.
What we know probably all FII know and hence they are using the current RE positions to bring in more USD in
INDIA through investment and that should happen in JAN and FEB. This is the precise reason all big stalwarts
in INDIA are talking about the big rally in JAN and FEB which will take Nifty past 9000.
Traders do not understand this and hence seeing the technical support and resistances try to create positions.
They are short now and we have no second thought in our mind that market may just blast.
Thus the rate cut will start from FEB and will continue till 2016 and we expect 200 bips rate cutting which will
take GDP past 7 and 7.5% AND trust us all those who are tired at the moment will try to ride the TIGER then.
Please do not forget riding tiger is not an easy job because you always have a threat that if you come down
TIGER may target you.
Somewhere we read RUETERS report that OIL is heading for 20 USD. We challenge such reports and believe
that these are baseless. The opinion in this report was vested and these guys were short in OIL at 98 USD.
Now they are showing you 20 USD target and they are covering their short positions at 60 USD. In our opinion
USD will settle at 70 to 80. These very experts were long in OIL at 110 and were expecting 170 which never
happened. Hence there is point is relying on such baseless reports. In any case we always suggest do not
trade in a commodity where you can't understand the basis of speculation. You never come to know the
statistics of global oil production, global supply and the derivative data of oil in the international market. When
we have all the data in front of us with regard to Indian derivatives of stock market yet we go wrong then were
is a question of going right in case of commodities which is not in control of any one.
If an allocation has to rise then only large cap will rally hence you need to keep watch on large cap stocks. We
still believe that a bank stock has enough upside till rate is not cut. Bank Nifty may double in next 3 years.
Cni Research Limited
www.cniglobalbiz.com
6
Global Indices
Country
Indices
Date
Index
Net Change
Change
Hong Kong
Hang Seng
26/12
23,349.34
+15.65
+0.07
Singapore
Straits Times
26/12
3,353.68
+7.77
+0.23
South Korea
Seoul Composite
26/12
4,806.86
+33.39
+0.70
United States
NASDAQ
26/12
18,053.71
+23.50
+0.13
United States
DJIA
26/12
2,088.77
+6.89
+0.33
United States
S&P 500
26/12
17,818.96
+10.21
+0.06
Japan
Nikkei 225
26/12
6,609.93
+11.75
+0.18
United Kingdom
FTSE 100
26/12
1,764.44
+14.70
+0.84
Malaysia
KLSE Composite
26/12
5,166.98
+27.92
+0.54
Indonesia
Jakarta Composite
26/12
1,510.41
+5.52
+0.37
Thailand
SET
26/12
4,295.85
-19.12
-0.44
France
CAC 40
26/12
9,922.11
+56.35
+0.57
Germany
DAX
26/12
8,373.74
+219.73
+2.69
Argentina
MerVal
26/12
50,144.63
-745.18
-1.46
Brazil
Bovespa
26/12
43,002.17
-0.70
0.00
Mexico
IPC
26/12
2,172.19
+18.59
+0.86
Austria
ATX
26/12
3,306.81
-12.90
-0.39
Belgium
BEL-20
26/12
425.57
-1.20
-0.28
Netherlands
AEX General
26/12
1,063.16
+0.31
+0.03
Spain
Madrid General
26/12
9,021.67
-11.78
-0.13
Switzerland
Swiss Market
26/12
5,369.50
+13.09
+0.24
Australia
All Ordinaries
26/12
3,157.60
+85.07
+2.77
China
Shanghai Composite
26/12
7,186.32
+47.05
+0.66
Philippines
PSE Composite
26/12
7,309.03
+45.78
+0.63
Sri Lanka
All Share
26/12
9,214.07
+55.37
+0.60
Taiwan
Taiwan Weighted
26/12
1,292.84
+0.62
+0.05
East Egypt
CMA
26/12
1,948.16
+1.55
+0.08
Cni Research Limited
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7
Bulk deal
Company Name
Date
BSE Code
Client Name
Deal Type
Quantity
Price (Rs)
BRAKAUT
26-Dec-14
520115
SRIMANNARAYANAMURTI
B
135000
1.19
BRAKAUT
26-Dec-14
520115
GIRIDHAR GOPAL PULLE
S
135000
1.19
CHMBBRW
26-Dec-14
512301
CHOUTH MAL
S
80000
7.5
CHMBBRW
26-Dec-14
512301
ARCH CAPITAL ADVISOR
B
100000
7.5
DHABRIYA
26-Dec-14
538715
HEM CHAND JAIN
S
48000
24.15
DHABRIYA
26-Dec-14
538715
ANIL BHANDARI
B
48000
24.15
EPCIN
26-Dec-14
523754
INDIANIVESH SECURITI
S
173000
146.75
EPCIN
26-Dec-14
523754
SNEHLATA RAJESH NUWA
B
173000
146.75
ICVLSTEELS
26-Dec-14
534733
HONEY NIHIR SHAH
B
533330
7.18
ICVLSTEELS
26-Dec-14
534733
MURARILAL BISHESHWAR
S
533330
7.18
Cera Sanitaryware Limit
24-Dec-14
CERA
MASSACHUSETTS INSTIT
S
87750
1705
Class B shares (Series
24-Dec-14
FRLDVR
SNEHLATA NUWAL
B
150000
47.35
Class B shares (Series
24-Dec-14
FRLDVR
BALASHRI COMMERCIAL
S
152935
47.36
Hathway Cable & Datacom
24-Dec-14
HATHWAY
ABG CAPITAL
B
1499602
348
Hathway Cable & Datacom
24-Dec-14
HATHWAY
MASSACHUSETTS INSTIT
S
1499602
348
Page Industries Limited
24-Dec-14
PAGEIND
ABG CAPITAL
B
195889
12120
Page Industries Limited
24-Dec-14
PAGEIND
MASSACHUSETTS INSTIT
S
195889
12120
PTC India Limited
24-Dec-14
PTC
MARFATIA NISHIL SURE
B
1529843
90.85
PTC India Limited
24-Dec-14
PTC
MARFATIA NISHIL SURE
S
1529843
90.81
Shriram City Union Fina
24-Dec-14
SHRIRAMCIT
ABG CAPITAL
B
837307
1786
ntellect Design Ar
23-Dec-14
INTELLECT
WOODLAND RETAILS PRI
B
950000
72.37
Intellect Design Ar
23-Dec-14
INTELLECT
FRANKLIN MUTUAL SERI
S
5353733
74.63
Intellect Design Ar
23-Dec-14
INTELLECT
ORBITECH LIMITED
S
11260180
72.29
Southern Ispat Ltd
23-Dec-14
SOUISPAT
SHREE GANESH TRADERS
S
12704736
0.15
TVS Srichakra Limit
23-Dec-14
TVSSRICHAK
SUNDARAM TRUST
S
50000
1615
Crompton Greaves Ltd
22-Dec-14
CROMPGREAV
AVANTHA HOLDINGS LIM
B
4314712
185
Crompton Greaves Ltd
22-Dec-14
CROMPGREAV
LUSTRE INTERNATIONAL
S
4314712
185
Intellect Design Are
22-Dec-14
INTELLECT
ARKSUN SYSTEMS SOLUT
B
500000
80.1
Cni Research Limited
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8
Call put option
Option Month -
PUT
Strike Price
Volume
January - 7500.00
CALL
Best
Sell
7.35
LTP
OI
1664250
Best
Buy
7.25
Volume
1296375
Change
OI(%)
47.66
Best
Sell
765.85
LTP
OI
48575
Best
Buy
762.05
763
270975
Change
OI(%)
3.13
7.25
January - 7550.00
2175
8
11
9
475
1800
0
539.55
860.45
995
9150
0
January - 7600.00
1548500
10.9
11.15
11.15
1433050
19.31
16200
664.15
671.85
669.85
176300
0.3
January - 7650.00
300
13
17.2
14
350
366.67
0
448.75
764.55
935.85
9500
0
January - 7700.00
2010325
16.1
16.3
16.1
1603050
22.55
9475
571.3
579
573.15
97825
2.89
January - 7750.00
4900
18
20.9
20.25
2450
157.89
0
359.7
642
0
0
0
January - 7800.00
2962925
24.5
24.8
24.8
2541825
7.56
24975
483
493.05
484.9
126325
10.11
January - 7850.00
7425
27.15
37.75
32
4925
19600
0
272.85
568.7
660
100
0
January - 7900.00
4499150
35.2
35.75
35.75
2770900
24.14
30800
395.8
399.4
399.3
116025
3.13
January - 7950.00
89775
42.45
43.25
43.1
20350
1171.9
2775
354.5
380.75
383.6
750
-62.5
January - 8000.00
7015300
51.5
51.9
51.5
4328250
10.01
332475
314.75
315.95
316
1252450
8.42
January - 8050.00
151850
61.1
62.35
62.55
30250
179.45
225
268.65
285.45
286.55
9475
0.53
January - 8100.00
7471125
74.05
74.3
74
3294350
18.88
482300
240.75
243
241.25
530825
7.4
January - 8150.00
299550
88.05
89.9
88.05
62275
327.27
18075
206.75
207.95
206.3
5475
157.65
January - 8200.00
7909000
104.5
104.7
104.65
3467800
6.53
2685050
173.45
174.7
173.45
1189225
19.22
January - 8250.00
213375
121.5
125
123
72650
19.74
226800
144.4
146.5
144.85
54275
66.74
January - 8300.00
3333450
145.25
146.3
146.25
2944725
1.3
7076200
119.05
120
119.05
3011725
13.43
January - 8350.00
27050
167.6
172.95
170.1
30300
-3.89
248925
95.55
96.95
96.5
94550
18.04
January - 8400.00
697425
200.15
204.25
200.25
1160150
-6.41
9318000
77
77.2
76.8
3308675
7.11
January - 8450.00
1700
223.9
241.8
225
3200
-7.25
179725
58.5
59.95
58.45
50600
47.63
January - 8500.00
346000
265.05
268.3
267.05
1228775
-0.61
7538475
44.95
45
45
2648950
8.27
January - 8550.00
15850
296.9
318.8
285.95
9225
525.42
163450
32.65
33.6
33.6
70525
38.08
January - 8600.00
54000
342.6
347.15
343.05
1322300
-0.62
5568475
24.6
24.75
24.15
3036825
15.27
January - 8650.00
25
371
582.8
435
225
12.5
21525
17.4
19.05
18
77200
3.38
January - 8700.00
50475
430.15
438.55
435.05
345850
0.96
3357100
13.7
13.75
13.8
2002600
17.71
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9
DISCLAIMER STATEMENT
This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an
investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice, and nothing in this
document is solicitation to buy or sell the securities of companies referred to in this document. The intent of this document
is not in recommender nature. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to
arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including
the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.
The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors.
The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and
should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without
any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be
required from time to time without any prior approval.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. The distribution of this
document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should
inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Neither the Firm nor its directors, employees, agents or
representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost
revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
Copyright in this document vests exclusively with CNI Research Ltd.
Name of Editor: Minit jhaveri
Publisher:
Mr. Kishor Ostwal
120, Gokul Arcade,
Sahar Road, Vile Parle (East),
Mumbai-400057
Tel No: 022-28220323/28383889, Fax No: +91-22-28242220
E-Mail at: [email protected]
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Owner:
CNI Research Ltd
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Cni Research Limited
www.cniglobalbiz.com
Place of Publication
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