Research Scorecard December 2014 Key pillars of our equity proposition Intensive Research Innovative & flexible products Dedicated team for fundamental, derivative and technical research to cater to every client’s need Total 28 fundamental research analysts covering 203 companies across sectors Customised research solutions – for derivatives Strong service platform flexibility Dedicated equity advisors to guide you on Execution M i Margins Liquidity product and Institutional services offered to our HNI clients Online and mobile platforms for trading Block deals and account tracking VWAP trading Online reporting systems for tracking transactions, in Institutional & Corporate Services the markets Provide service features investing g or trading g using g cash,, equities q or Offer innovative and unique products profitability, securities position and cash movement 2 Compliance reporting and monitoring services for employee accounts Research Philosophy 3 Stock selection basis Momentum Fundamentals Financials of the company Growth prospects of the industry and and historical averages company Quality of management Competitive landscape Transaction volume Technicals Valuations Stock price movement vis-à-vis market Stock price vis-à-vis: vis à vis: Chart based parameters Peers Moving average price Earnings quality Trend reversals Intrinsic value Historical cycles Patterns 4 Research catering to client needs Fundamentals Momentum Technicals Long term Investing Medium term Investing Short term T di Trading Intra – day Trading High 5 Low Absent Research basket Long term Investing Medium term Investing Short term T di Trading Intra – day Trading Three to five years perspective – Equity model portfolio Twelve to 15 month perspective – Detailed company reports Others – Muhurat Picks and Annual Strategy Picks Three months perspective Pi k off the Pick h Week W k Seven to 30 days perspective Monthly and Weekly Calls – Technical & Derivatives Stocks on the Move, Positional Derivatives and Volatility Insight One to three days perspective Daily y Calls – Technical, Momentum and Derivatives Intra-day Calls – BTST, Margin and Derivatives 6 Research Performance – Long Term Investing 7 Detailed Company Coverage Overall Basket Coverage: 203 companies Target g achieved: 140 companies p (69% strike rate) 8 Nano Nivesh Company Atul Auto Auto* Siyaram Silk Mills Setco Automotive Initiated: 13 companies Initiation price CMP Fair Value 48 306 108 658 950 283 564 1150 191 Return (%) 1270 8 1270.8 Comment Date of initiation The initiation fair value price had been achieved on November 29, 2012. This was | 80-90. Then, subsequently, we upgraded it to | 103, | 140, | 283, | 350 and | 564. All these target 14-Sep-12 14 Sep 12 prices have been achieved. We continue to advise our long term investors to hold the stock 210.5 The initiation fair value has been achieved and we have upgraded the fair value (which was also achieved). Considering the long-term growth prospects, we have further upgraded the fair value that has also been achieved. We remain positive considering the relatively inexpensive valuations. We have introduced our FY17E estimates and revised the target price upwards to | 1150 and maintain our BUY rating on the stock 13-Dec-12 162.0 Our initiation fair value for the stock was | 140-150. However, after the stock had fallen to ~| 65, we had asked our investors to average and revised our target price to | 102, which has been achieved. The stock has had a strong run up over the past month and after surpassing fair value, we recommended that investors book profit 20-Mar-13 D-link India 27 164 185 507.4 Wim Plast 329 1485 1069 351.4 Owing to the continued robustness in operations, operations D D-Link Link is expected to post revenue, revenue EBITDA and PAT growth of 18.9%, 48.3% and 51.2% FY14-17E CAGR to | 817.5 crore, | 71.0 crore and | 47.2 crore by FY17E, respectively. We value the stock at 14x FY17E P/E at a target price of | 185 and maintain BUY The stock has run up substantially in the past four months and is richly valued at this price. Though we believe the long term story of the company remains intact (with average EBITDA margin margin- 17 17-18%; 18%; and RoE RoE- ~20%) 20%) the current price discounts near term positives in the company and strong balance sheet. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 24x FY15E and 21x FY16E earnings. We maintain our HOLD rating and value the stock at 15x FY16E and maintain our target price of | 1069 * Stock price adjusted for share split 9 20-Mar-13 2-Apr-13 Nano Nivesh Company Initiation price CMP Fair Value Return (%) Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances 262 224 355 -14.5 Camlin Fine Sciences (price adjusted for share split) 47 71 78 51.9 Accelya Kale 686 989 1000 44.1 Apcotex Industries 175 551 522 214.6 Comment Date of initiation The initiation fair value price has been achieved and we have upgraded the fair value thereafter. We believe the company is a re-rating candidate considering the strong turnaround that it has made and also the growth potential it has. The company’s expansion 3-Mar-14 in non-south regions is also picking up well and the acquisition of the LLM product portfolio would further boost revenues. We maintain BUY on Butterfly Gandhimathi with a target price of | 355 (based on 14.0x FY16E EPS of | 25.5). Our initiation fair value has been achieved. We highlight that the strong growth potential f from the h foray f i diphenol in di h l downstream d ( (especially i ll Vanillin) V illi ) andd improvement i i yieds in i d is i yet to play out. Therefore, we believe the stock still has a strong growth trajectory and long 17-Jun-14 term value potential. Consequently, we had ugraded our target to | 78. We advise long term investors to continue to hold the stock Accelya Kale (AKL) is well positioned to capture the rising outsourcing opportunity in the airline IT space, helped by its global parent, Accelya group. AKL’s strong financial f (31% PAT CAGR during d i FY08-13), FY08 13) healthy h lth balance b l sheet h t metrics t i (zero ( d bt debt, performance 30-Jun-14 asset-light and day sales outstanding: 40), attractive dividend payout (157%) & yield (~10%) and its unique value proposition make it an attractive investment story. We value AKL at | 1,000-1,050, i.e. at 12.5-13x its FY16E EPS of | 80. The Nano Nivesh report on Apcotex Industries was initiated on July 18, 2014 at a recommendation price of | 175 and a target price of | 216- 234.The initiation fair value price h d been had b achieved hi d on August A t 4, 4 2014. 2014 We W had h d subsequently b tl upgraded d d the th target t t price i to t | 18-Jul-14 329, which has also been achieved.The stellar performance in H1FY15 & strong growth potential has led us to upgrade the target price to | 522. We have advised all long-term investors to hold on to the stock 10 Nano Nivesh Company Initiation price CMP Fair Value Return (%) Sonata Software 120 130 170 8.1 Mastek 317 427 600 34.8 CCL Products 116 173 170 49.4 EPC Industrie 150 158 228 5.3 Comment Date of initiation Sonata Software (SSL) restructured its operations in 2012 to focus on the services business, select verticals (travel, retail) and complex products (cloud). This led to improved financial performance (| 78 crores PAT in FY14 vs. | 3 crore loss in FY12), healthy 12-Sep-14 balance sheet metric and attractive dividend payout (50%). We value Sonata at | 150-170, i.e. 10.5-12x FY16E EPS (translates to 2.4x Mcap/sales for services business) of | 14.3, given improving fundamentals and healthy cash balance (| 250 crore) Mastek restructured its insurance business into a separate entity to better leverage the existing IP capabilities and capital allocation strategies. We believe the insurance business post Agile acquisition and Cover-All merger could be a formidable player in the mid-market segment. Further, value creation is getting real with Majesco’s US listing. We 17-Sep-14 believe the combined insurance business could be valued at 2.5x on Mcap/sales metric given deeper market expertise and cross-selling opportunities within the acquired clients while the services business could be valued at 3.5x trailing pro-forma EV/EBITDA. CCL Products, the largest producer and exporter of bulk instant coffee from India, has expanded its capacity ~10x to ~33000 MT (FY14) in the past two decades by expanding its footprint into three geographies, India (producing since 1995), Switzerland (entered in FY11) and Vietnam (set up in FY14). We believe CCL Products is all set for a re-rating led 8-Oct-14 by growth in capacity, capacity expansion into higher margin branded business, business operational & tax benefits from Vietnam, decline in debt to equity to 0.1x by FY17E (0.7x in FY14) and improvement in return ratios. We value the stock on a weighted average of P/E (15x FY17E EPS of | 11.4) and EV/EBITDA (9x FY17E EBITDA) ascribing a fair value of | 150-170. EPC Industrie (EPC) is a micro-irrigation system (MIS) and component manufacturer based out of Maharashtra. The company was acquired by M&M in February 2011 and has been well capitalised over the years by M&M (net cash of ~| 8 crore in FY14 vis-à-vis vis à vis net debt of ~| 30 crore in FY10). On the back of the government’s thrust on augmenting MIS reach & 27-Nov-14 strong parentage (M&M), we have built in sales, PAT CAGR of 15%, 35%, respectively, in FY14-17E, albeit on a low base. We expect EPC to clock sales, PAT of | 264 crore, | 19 crores, respectively in FY17E (| 175 crore, | 8 crore in FY14). We value EPC at | 215-240, i.e. 2.3-2.5x MCap/sales on FY17E sales of | 264 crore. 11 Equity Model Portfolio (rejigged on December 29, 2014) – Large Cap Earlier Name of the company Consumer Discretionary United Spirits Tata Motors DVR Bajaj Auto Titan BFSI HDFC HDFC Bank SBI Axis Bank Power, Infrastructure & Cement L &T UltraTech Cement FMCG ITC Metals & Mining NMDC Oil and Gas Reliance Gail Pharma Lupin Sun Pharma IT Infosys TCS Wipro e eco Telecom Bharti Airtel Media Zee Entertainment Total Now Weightage(%) 10 2 4 2 2 27 6 6 8 7 13 8 5 10 10 4 4 14 11 3 5 2 3 12 3 6 3 3 3 2 2 100 Name of the company Consumer Discretionary United Spirits Tata Motors DVR Bajaj Auto Titan BFSI HDFC HDFC Bank SBI Axis Bank Power, Infrastructure & Cement L&T UltraTech Cement FMCG ITC Metals & Mining Tata Steel Oil and Gas ONGC Gail Ph Pharma Lupin Sun Pharma IT Infosys TCS Wipro Telecom Bharti Airtel Media Zee Entertainment Total 12 Weightage(%) 12 4 4 2 2 30 8 7 8 7 15 8 7 8 8 4 4 8 6 2 5 2 3 13 5 5 3 3 3 2 2 100 Equity Model Portfolio (rejigged on December 29, 2014) – Midcap Earlier Name of the company Consumer Discretionary Bosch Cox & Kings Ltd Arvind IT Info Edge BFSI DCB IndusInd Bank FMCG Kansai Nerolac T Global Tata Gl b l B Beverages Pharma Natco Pharma Media PVR Capital Goods Cummins Realty/Infrasturcture/Cement JK Cement Container Corporation of India Oberoi Realty Shree Cement Total Now Weightage(%) 20 6 6 8 6 6 16 8 8 14 8 6 6 6 8 8 6 6 24 6 6 6 6 100 Name of the company Consumer Discretionary Bosch Cox & Kings Ltd Arvind Voltas Castrol IT Info Edge BFSI CARE IndusInd Bank FMCG Kansai Nerolac Pharma Natco Pharma Media PVR Capital Goods C Cummins Realty/Infrasturcture/Cement Heidelberg Cement Container Corporation of India Shree Cement Total 13 Weightage(%) 34 6 6 6 8 8 6 6 14 6 8 8 8 6 6 8 8 6 6 18 6 6 6 100 Equity Model Portfolio (rejigged on December 29, 2014) – Diversified (1/2) Earlier Name of the company Consumer Discretionary United Spirits Tata Motors DVR Bajaj Auto Titan Bosch Cox & Kings Ltd Arvind BFSI HDFC HDFC Bank SBI Axis Bank DCB IndusInd Bank Power, Infrastructure & Cement L &T UltraTech Cement JK Cement Container Corporation of India Oberoi Realty Shree Cement Now Weightage(%) 13 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 24 4 4 6 5 2 2 16 6 4 2 2 2 2 Name of the company Consumer Discretionary United Spirits Tata Motors DVR Bajaj Auto Titan Bosch Cox & Kings Ltd Arvind Voltas Castrol BFSI HDFC HDFC Bank SBI Axis Bank CARE IndusInd Bank Power, Infrastructure & Cement L &T UltraTech Cement Heidelberg Cement Container Corporation of India Shree Cement # Indicative diversified portfolio has 70% weightage to large cap and 30% to midcap 14 Weightage(%) 19 3 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 25 6 5 6 5 2 2 16 6 5 2 2 2 Equity Model Portfolio (rejigged on December 29, 2014) – Diversified (2/2) Earlier Name of the company FMCG ITC Kansai Nerolac Tata Global Beverages Metals & Mining NMDC Oil and Gas Now Weightage(%) 11 7 2 2 3 3 10 Reliance 8 Gail 2 Pharma 5 Lupin Sun Pharma Natco Pharma IT Infosys TCS Wipro Info Edge Telecom Bharti Airtel Media Zee Entertainment PVR Capital Goods Cummins Total 1 2 2 10 2 4 2 2 2 2 4 1 2 2 2 100 Name of the company FMCG ITC Kansai Nerolac Metals & Mining Tata Steel Weightage(%) 8 6 2 3 3 Oil and Gas 6 ONGC 4 Gail 1 Pharma 5 Lupin Sun Pharma Natco Pharma IT Infosys TCS Wipro Info Edge Telecom Bharti Airtel Media Zee Entertainment PVR Capital Goods Cummins Total # Indicative diversified portfolio has 70% weightage to large cap and 30% to midcap 15 1 2 2 11 4 4 2 2 2 2 4 1 2 2 2 100 Equity Model Portfolio Performance (return since inception)# All three portfolios continue to outperform their respective benchmark indices, indicating that our picks have been more consistent and stable vis-à-vis their respective indices on an average 97.0 100 80 63.5 56.6 56.1 % 60 86.1 79.8 40 20 0 Large Cap Midcap Portfolio Diversified Benchmark As on December 31, 2014 # includes the dividend yield 16 SIP in Model Portfolio Value as on December 31, 2014 8 500 000 8,500,000 7,500,000 6,106,326 6,733,481 4,300,000 6,757,034 7,9299,470 4,300,000 5,943,216 4,500,000 6,324,587 5,500,000 4,300,000 | 6,500,000 3,500,000 Largecap Investment Midcap Value of Investment in Portfolio Divesified Value if invested in Benchmark SIPs in all three portfolios (large cap, midcap and diversified portfolio) continue to outperform their SIPs in the respective index Assuming | 1,00,000 invested as SIP at the end of every month Start date of SIP is June 30, 2011 17 Muhurat Picks – Recommended in October, 2014 Recommended on October 10, 2014 Scrip Name Exide Industries Kansai Nerolac Maharashtra Seamless Rallis India SBI* SKF India Ultratech Cement C Reco price 169 1918 335 246 246 1144 2550 Exit price/CMP 187 2085 223 214 305 1342 2719 * Target price achieved, stock price adjusted for share split 18 Return (%) 10.4 8.7 -33.4 -13.0 24.1 17.3 6.6 Status Open Open Open Open Open Open O Open Yearly Strategy picks – Fundamental Recommended on December 27, 2013 Scrip Name Bajaj j j Auto IndusInd Bank Idea Cellular ITC Marico Shree Cements Oberoi Realtyy Titan Industries Reco Price Exit price/CMP Return (%) 1935 2448 26.5 422 505 19.7 168 152 -9.7 322 387 20.2 221 262 18.6 4399 5080 15.5 231 271 17.3 229 279 21.8 19 Status Booked Profit Booked Profit Closed Call Booked Profit Booked Profit Booked Profit Booked Profit Booked Profit Yearly Technical picks Technical Outlook 2014 Rec. Date Jan-14 Jan-14 Jan-14 Jan-14 Jan-14 Jan-14 Jan-14 Jan-14 Jan-14 Jan-14 Stock Recommended JB Chemical Kesoram Ind CMC Ipca Lab Cummins India Colgate Bosch Tata Motors TCS Tata Global Rec Price 120 68 1510 700 458 1282 9600 368 2090 145 Target 170 95 1940 890 575 1585 12350 440 2500 225 • Recommendations: 10 • Open: 0 • Exit at cost: 1 • Strike Rate: 100% • Average return on positive calls: 27% Stoploss 97 51 1940 595 380 1140 8000 315 1860 115 20 % Profit/Loss 40.0 40.0 28.0 27.1 25.5 23.6 22.0 18.0 17.0 2.00 Comment Target Achieved Target Achieved Target Achieved Target Achieved Target Achieved Target Achieved Target Achieved Target Achieved Target Achieved Exit at 148 Research Performance – Medium Term Investing 21 Techno Funda picks As on Date Performance Recommendations: 36 Open: p 1 Strike Rate: 80% Average Return on positive calls: 20.0% Average Return on negative calls: -5.0% 22 Research Performance – Short Term Trading 23 Stock Picks: Stocks that can weather election volatility…. As on Date Performance Recommendations : 25 Exit at cost: 1 Strike rate:100% Average return on positive calls: 14.1% 24 Stock Picks: Riding the new wave of change…. As on Date Performance Recommendations : 11 Strike rate: 100% Average return on positive calls: 17.0% 25 Technical Delivery Call December Performance Recommendations : 12 Open: 5 Exit at cost: 0 Strike rate: 86% Average return on positive calls: 11.0% Average return on negative calls: -7.0% Year to date Performance Recommendations : 169 Open: 5 Exit at cost: 8 S ik rate: 73% Strike Average return on positive calls : 12.5% Average return on negative calls : -5.8% 26 Monthly Technical Sectoral December Performance Recommendations : 6 Open : 1 Exit at Cost: 0 Strike rate: 80% Average return on positive cash calls: 15% Average return on negative calls : -8.2% Year to date Performance Recommendations : 53 Open : 1 Exit at cost: 1 St ik rate: Strike t 82% Average return on positive calls : 12.0% Average return on negative calls : -7.5% 27 Monthly Call December Performance Recommendations : 2 No Trade: 0 Open: 0 Strike Rate: 50% Average return on positive calls : 7.0% Average return on negative calls : -3.5% Year to date Performance Recommendations : 20 No Trade: 4 Open: 0 Strike Rate: 69% Average return on positive calls : 8.6% Average return on negative calls : -3.3% 28 Stock on the Move Year to date Performance Recommendations : 30 Open: 2 Exit at cost : 1 Strike Rate: 85% Average return on positive calls : 15.0% A Average return t on negative ti calls ll : -6.7% 6 7% 29 Gladiator Stocks Year to date Performance Recommendations : 30 Open: 7 Exit at cost : 0 Strike Rate: 83% Average return on positive calls : 25.0% A Average return t on negative ti calls ll : -11.0% 11 0% 30 Weekly Call December Performance Recommendations: 6 No Trade: 2 Exit at cost : 0 Strike Rate: 75% Average return on positive calls : 8.0% Average return on negative calls : -3.5% Year to date Performance R Recommendations d ti : 69 No Trade: 26 Exit at cost: 4 Open p :0 Strike rate: 69% Average return on positive calls : 8.0% Average return on negative calls : -3.0% 31 Weekly Technical Calls December Performance Recommendations: 9 Open: p 3 Exit at cost: 1 Strike Rate: 60% Average return on positive cash calls : 11.0% Average return on negative cash calls : -4.7% Year to date Performance R Recommendations d i : 60 Open: 4 Exit at cost: 3 Strike St e rate: ate 83% Average return on positive cash calls : 12.5% Average return on negative cash calls : -4.5% 32 Monthly Derivatives December Performance Recommendations: 6 Strike Rate: 80% Open : 1 Average Return on positive calls: 12% Average profit per call : | 23200 Performance (FY 2014-2015) Recommendations: 47 Strike Rate: 86% Average Return on positive calls: 10.5% A Average profit fi per call: ll | 30930 33 Stock trader December Performance No. of Calls : 2 Positive Payoff: 1 Open : 11 Strike rate: 100% Average return on per call : 6.5% Performance (FY 2014- 2015) Number of strategies recommended: 95 Positive payoff: 71 Open : 4 Exit in loss /Stop loss : 20 Strike rate: 78% A Average return on positive i i callll : 11% Average Profit per call : | 30200 34 Volatility Insights December Performance No. of Calls : 1 Open: 1 Performance (FY 2014- 2015) Number of strategies recommended: 34 Positive payoff: 28 Open : 1 Closed in loss : 5 Strike rate: 85% A Average return per call: ll | 9164 35 Global Derivatives December Performance No. of Strategies: 7 Positive payoff : 4 Strike rate : 58% Average profit on Positive Calls: | 2250 Performance (FY 2014- 2015) Number of strategies recommended: 46 Positive payoff: 34 Strike rate: 79% Average return per call : | 1850 36 Alpha Trader December Performance No. of Strategies: 1 Average profit on calls : ( | 9500 ) Performance (FY 2014- 2015) Number of strategies recommended: 20 Positive payoff: 14 Strike rate: 70% Average return on calls : | 4250 37 Quant Pick December Performance No. of Calls : 6 Positive Payoff: 1 Open : 5 Strike rate: 100% Average return per call : 7.5% Performance (FY 2014- 2015) Number of strategies recommended: 12 Positive payoff: 3 Closed in loss : 2 Open : 6 Strike rate: 60% A Average return on positive i i call: ll 10% 38 Weekly Derivative Calls December Performance Number of strategies recommended: 7 Positive p payoff: y 3 Not initiated/ Exit : 1 Strike rate: 50% Net profit : (| 3500) Average profit on positive calls: | 6750 Performance (FY 2014-2015) Number of strategies recommended: 68 Positive payoff: 45 Exit in loss/Stop loss Triggered: 16 Strike rate: 70% Net profit: | 175500 Average profit per call: | 2650 39 Currency Derivatives December Performance Recommendations: 65 Strike Rate: 77% Performance (FY 2014-2015) Recommendations: 578 Strike Rate: 78% 40 Research Performance – Intra Day Trading 41 Trading Calls December Performance Strike rate of 76% Trading Total calls Positive Payoff Open p Strike rate Derivatives/Margin Calls 361 274 1 76% 42 Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Pankaj Pandey, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged g g in businesses of housing g finance,, asset management, g , life insurance,, g general insurance,, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. 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