NiveshDaily
December 24, 2014
INDICES
Indices
Previous (day) Close
% chg
Sensex
Nifty
27,506.46
8,267.00
-0.71%
-0.68%
(As on 23rd December, 2014)
FROM RESEARCH DESK
 News Updates
NTPC issued bonus debentures for shareholders: Positive for Equity shareholder; Maintain
buy rating on the stock with target price of Rs.190
 Company Updates
Cipla Medpro wins R2bn (Rs10.8bn) of state ARV Tender; Raise PT to Rs644 (from
Rs632) maintain HOLD
HCL Technologies Ltd (HCTL)…Q2FY15 Pre-quarter earnings update; Maintain HOLD with
target price to Rs.1,697
 Global Markets - Outlook
 IndiaNivesh Universe | Valuation Table
Daljeet S. Kohli
Head of Research
Tel: +91 22 66188826
[email protected]
IndiaNivesh Research
IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited
601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.
News Updates
Daljeet S. Kohli
Head of Research
Tel: +91 22 66188826
[email protected]
NTPC issued bonus debentures for shareholders: Positive for
Equity shareholder; Maintain buy rating on the stock with target
price of Rs.190

NTPC has approved to issue bonus debenture (secured, non- convertible,
redeemable, taxable, fully paid debentures) for shareholders, on the occasion
of entering its 40th year of operations.

These bonus debentures would be issued through a scheme of arrangement.
Bonus debentures of face value of Rs. 12.50 each would be issued against
each equity shares of Rs. 10 (face value) held by its members by utilizing its
free reserves.

The proceed of issue of the debenture will be utilized for capital expenditure
in on-going project. Issue size for 8.24 bn equity share would be Rs. 103.06
bn

Coupon rate of debenture would be based on Gsec rate (10 years benchmark)
plus 50 basis points.

Over the years the company has accumulated free reserve (General reserve+
net surplus) of Rs. 724 bn and cash and bank balance was Rs. 153.11 bn as
March 31, 2014. Further the company has a comfortable debt equity ratio of
0.78x.

The debenture would be redeemed in three installments(Rs. 2.50 at the end
of 8th year, Rs. 5 in 9th and 10th year each)

If debenture is deployed /utilized for acquisition, construction or production,
then the interest of debenture would be capitalized till the time of assets is
available for production.
Abhishek Jain
Research Analyst
Tel: +91 22 66188832
[email protected]
Our take
IndiaNivesh Research

Through this accounting treatment the free reserve of the NTPC is being
converted into debentures. The amount lying in free reserves truly belongs
to shareholders getting paid in the form of bonus debentures is a lucrative
option. Shareholders, who have now become the debenture holders too,
receive interest on debentures regularly. Shareholders have the option of
selling the debentures in the secondary market if they desire. This is positive
for the equity shareholder of NTPC as this exercise is creating the value for
them. shareholder are getting an assured return in form of debenture of
Rs. 12.5 (paid in three tranches in 8th, 9th and 10th years) and ~Rs. 1 in form of
interest per year from debenture.

However book value of the company would be reduced by Rs 14.5 per share
(including dividend distribution tax), shareholders value would be
compensated by NPV of debenture of Rs. 12.5 share. Further, Interest on
debenture is a tax deductible expense, so company will get the tax benefit.
Further, there is no immediate cash outflow at the time of issue of bonus
debentures and this ensures availability of cash for next few years (life of
debentures) to meet funds requirement for NTPC expansion plan. Thus we
don’t find any material impact of our target price.

At CMP of Rs. 142, stock is trading at attractive valuation of 1.10x FY16E BV.
We maintain buy rating on the stock with target price of Rs.190 (1.5xFY16E
BV).
NiveshDaily
December 24, 2014 | 2
Company Updates
Daljeet S. Kohli
Head of Research
Tel: +91 22 66188826
[email protected]
Tushar Manudhane
Research Analyst
Tel: +91 22 66188835
[email protected]
Cipla Medpro wins R2bn (Rs10.8bn) of state ARV Tender; Raise
PT to Rs644 (from Rs632) maintain HOLD
Our View: Cipla announced yesterday that it has been awarded R2bn (Rs10.8bn) of
the South African Government’s 2015-17 national ARV tender. Cipla would have to
supply products in this tender over the period of three years starting from April
2015. This is the third tender after winning R280mn (Rs1.5bn) in August 2014 for
state therapeutic drug and R345mn (Rs1.8bn) national respiratory tender. We
incorporate Rs3.6bn of sales and Rs366mn of adjusted PAT in FY16E.
Key changes in estimates:
Source: IndiaNivesh Research
Valuation:
We raise EPS estimate of Cipla for FY16E by 1.8% to Rs25.7 and raise the target
price to Rs644 (from Rs632) on the basis of 25x FY16E (unchanged) earnings. With
capital investment almost done over past three-four years and efforts going on in
strengthening future leaders and building front end in regulated market, we expect
Cipla to show superior growth in sales and profitability in coming years. However,
we maintain HOLD rating on the basis of valuation at it is trading at 35.5x FY15E EPS
of RS17.7 and 24.5x FY16E EPS of Rs25.7.
IndiaNivesh Research
NiveshDaily
December 24, 2014 | 3
Company Updates
Daljeet S. Kohli
Head of Research
Tel: +91 22 66188826
[email protected]
Amar Mourya
Research Analyst
Tel: +91 22 66188836
[email protected]
HCL Technologies Ltd (HCTL)…Q2FY15 Pre-quarter earnings
update; Maintain HOLD with target price to Rs.1,697
HCL Technologies Ltd (HCLT) announced Q2FY15 (June Ending) business update.
The key highlights were following: (1) Cross-currency impact, (2) INR depreciation
impact, (3) Treasury Income Status, (4) Ex. One-offs impact on the bottom-line,
and (5) Effective Tax-rate.
Cross-Currency may hamper $-revenue performance…

On account of strengthening USD relative to the global currencies, HCLT
management expects adverse cross currency impact of 210 bps in Q2FY15
(June End). In our opinion the seasonal weakness and higher cross currency
impact is likely to result in $-revenue growth of 1.7% Q/Q in Q2FY15. In
Q1FY15, HCLT posted 2.0% Q/Q $-revenue growth, partially offset by 130 bps
adverse impact of cross currency. The $-revenue growth was driven by IT
services (+2.0% Q/Q), and Infrastructure (+1.9% Q/Q), partially offset by BPO
(-0.1% Q/Q).
Chart: Revenue Geo-wise
Chart: Revenue Growth Trend (Q/Q %)
4.0%
3.5%
3.7%
3.0%
2.5%
3.1%
3.3%
3.5%
3.7%
3.1%
3.1%
2.7%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14E
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
INR depreciation could lead to exchange gain…

The depreciation of INR (v/s USD) could lead to foreign exchange gain of $2.0
mn (Rs.122 mn) largely occurring from cash flow hedges and mark-to-market
of assets and liabilities. In Q1FY15, the company reported foreign exchange
loss of $8.7 mn (Rs.530 mn). Additionally, management expect lower treasury
income (down ~5% Q/Q to $31.7 mn v/s $33.4 mn in Q1FY15).
Chart: Exch Gain/(Loss) Trend (Rs Mn) Chart: INR v/s USD Trend
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Bottom-line to be lower Ex. One-offs…

IndiaNivesh Research
In Q2FY15, net income would be lower by $25.2 mn (~Rs. 1553 mn) on account
of sale of property, which was one-off event in Q1FY15 not likely to repeat in
this quarter. The company reported net income of Rs.18,740 mn (21.5 % net
margin) in Q1FY15. Excluding the capital gain of ~Rs.1,553 mn, net income
was Rs.16,793 mn (19.2% of net margin). We expect net income of Rs.18,017
mn (20.3% net margin) in Q2FY15. During the quarter, the Company expects
effective tax rate to be in the range of 21-22%.
NiveshDaily
December 24, 2014 | 4
Company Updates (contd...)
Quarterly Performance (Rs Mn)
Particulars
`Revenues (USD)
Revenues
QoQ Gr (%)
YoY Gr (%)
Direct Costs
% of Rev
Gross Profits
Gross Margin
SG & A
% of Rev
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Depreciation
% of Rev
Amortisation
% of Rev
EBIT
EBITDA Margin
`Forex gain / (loss)
% of Rev
`Other Income, net
% of Rev
PBT
PBT Margin
Provision for Tax
% of PBT
`Net Income
Net Margin
Diluted – in INR
Sequential Gr (%)
Units
Q2 FY14
Dec
Q1 FY15 Q2 FY15e
Sep
Dec
Q/Q
Ch %
Y/Y
Ch %
US$ Mn
Mn
P%
P%
1321
81840
2.8
30.4
1433
87350
3.7
9.7
1457
88739
1.6
8.4
1.7%
1.6%
10.3%
8.4%
Mn
P%
Mn
P%
Mn
P%
Mn
P%
Mn
P%
Mn
P%
Mn
P%
Mn
P%
Mn
P%
50390
61.6
31,450
38.4
10,190
12.5
21,260
26.0
1,660
2.0
190
0.2
19,410
23.7
-1,580
-1.9
1,110
1.4
18,940
23.1
3,980
21.0
14,960
18.3
21.2
5.6
55220
63.2
32,130
36.8
10,210
11.7
21,920
25.1
920
1.1
120
0.1
20,880
23.9
-530
-0.6
3,580
4.1
23,930
27.4
5,190
21.7
18,740
21.5
26.5
2.2
56083
63.2
32,656
36.8
10,560
11.9
22,096
24.9
932
1.1
89
0.1
21,075
23.8
122
0.1
1,901
2.1
23,098
26.0
5,082
22.0
18,017
20.3
25.5
-3.9
1.6%
11.3%
1.6%
3.8%
3.4%
3.6%
0.8%
3.9%
1.3%
‐43.9%
‐26.1%
‐53.3%
0.9%
8.6%
NM
NM
‐46.9%
71.3%
‐3.5%
22.0%
‐2.1%
27.7%
‐3.9%
20.4%
‐3.9%
20.4%
P%
Mn
P%
Mn
P%
Rs.
P%
Cross Currency Impact
INR Depreciation (v/s USD)
Ex. profit from sale of asset
and lower treasury income
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Valuation
At CMP of Rs.1,553, the stock is trading at 14.7x FY15E (June YE) and 12.5x FY16E
(June YE) EPS estimates. We like the company’s performance in Software vertical;
however ability to maintain its margin post software vertical revenue expansion
remains the watchable going-ahead. We maintain HOLD with target price to Rs.1,697
(valuing at 14.7x FY16E).
IndiaNivesh Research
NiveshDaily
December 24, 2014 | 5
Global Markets - Outlook
Dharmesh Kant
VP Strategies & Fund Manager (PMS)
Mobile: +91 77383 93372
Tel: +91 22 66188890
[email protected]
Global Market Update

US Markets: The Dow industrials closed above 18,000 for the first time ever
and the S&P 500 notched up its 51st record close of the year, underscoring
confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy.
The advances were relatively modest, particularly after some of last week’s
monster gains. But investors appeared to be particularly heartened by a farstronger-than-expected revision to third-quarter economic growth that put
the U.S. on its best pace in 11 years. Gross domestic product — the value of
all goods and services produced by the U.S. — grew at a real 5.0% annual rate
in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That’s up from
a prior reading of 3.9% and an initial estimate of 3.5%.
Consumer spending was revised up to 3.2% from 2.2%, led by purchases of
durable goods. Spending on business fixed investment was revised to 7.7%
from 5.1%. Spending on structures such as plants and office buildings was
revised up to 4.8% from 1.1%, while spending on equipment was raised to
11.0% from 10.7%. The gain in business inventories was revised to $82.2 from
$79.1 billion, a high level that could induce companies to scale back a little in
the fourth quarter and perhaps impinge on growth. In a sign of momentum
already ebbing, U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly fell in November,
down 0.7%, the third decline in the past four months. Inflation as measured
by the PCE index slipped to at a 1.2% annual rate.
Sales of new single-family homes fell in November to the slowest pace in four
months, with drops in three of four U.S. regions, the government reported
Tuesday. Last month sales of new single-family homes fell 1.6% to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 438,000. For November the sales pace fell 12% in the
Northeast, 6.4% in the South and 6.3% in the Midwest. Meanwhile, the sales
pace rose 14.8% in the West. The median price of new homes sold hit $280,900
in November, up 1.4% from the year-earlier period. The supply of new homes
on the U.S. market rose to 5.8 months in November from 5.7 months in
October.

Day’s Performance: The S&P 500 index set an intraday record of 2,086.75
and closed up 3.6 points, or 0.2%, at 2,082.17. Energy and materials stocks
led the gains, while the health-care sector closed with a 2.2% loss. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average added 64.73 points, or 0.4%, to 18,024.17, closing at
a record level for the 36th time in 2014. 25 of its 30 components ended higher.
the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite which finished 16.00 points, or 0.3%, lower
at 4,765.42.

Set ups on S&P 500, Dow Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 are indicating
weakness creeping in, we remain cautious on US markets. Though, the markets
have posted a rally of over 5% from their recent lows.

Emerging markets: Asian stocks are trading firm red this morning on positive
global cues and higher crude oil prices. Early morning rally is helped by
overnight gains in US equities which grew at a fastest pace since last quarter
of 2003.

Bullions & Commodities: Gold is trading at $1177 per troy ounce this morning
down (0.08%) from previous close. WTI Crude future is trading at 57.06 per
barrel while Brent Crude future is trading at $61.54 per barrel.

Currencies: The U.S. Dollar Index tracking the U.S. currency against a basket
of six others currencies trading at 90.01 this morning down (0.06%) from
previous close. Long term set ups up on Dollar Index are looking strong. Our
target of 89 has been achieved. The dollar and U.S. stocks often trade on
opposite paths, with a weak dollar seen as providing investors with cheap
funding to buy stocks. Plus the dollar’s drop generally helps U.S. companies’
overseas sales.
Source: Bloomberg
IndiaNivesh Research
NiveshDaily
December 24, 2014 | 6
December 24, 2014
IndiaNivesh Universe | Valuation Table
Rs. Mn
Mcap
Rs.
CMP
Rs.
TP
Reco
%
(-) Dow n/(+) Up
YES
YES
YES
YES
NO
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
NO
NO
141,155
728,988
401,644
143,523
3,957
626,510
787,825
1,026,679
1,473,726
116,895
68,455
11,080
50
2,519
14,818
169
290
3,137
1,268
3,399
488
246
1,298
892
NA
2,840
NA
195
352
3,157
1,212
2,844
NA
158
1,076
1,184
NEUTRAL
BUY
NEUTRAL
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
SELL
NOT RATED
SELL
HOLD
BUY
NA
12.7
NA
15.5
21.3
0.6
-4.5
-16.3
NA
-35.8
-17.1
32.7
Information Technology
Infosys
Tata Consultancy Services
Wipro
HCL Technologies###
Tech Mahindra
NIIT Technologies
KPIT Cummins
Mastek
NIIT Ltd
SQS India BFSI (Thinksoft Global)
Onmobile Global
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
2,264,386
4,929,531
1,363,683
1,079,790
606,290
21,028
39,363
9,067
7,722
6,817
8,055
1,972
2,517
552
1,537
2,573
345
201
405
47
656
71
1,976
2,666
611
1,697
2,629
326
190
554
55
665
87
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
0.2
5.9
10.6
10.4
2.2
-5.5
-5.4
36.7
17.6
1.4
23.4
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Gail India
Oil India
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation
Reliance Industries**
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
461,772
567,453
342,467
3,011,960
2,891,343
246
447
570
352
894
377
530
680
462
1,111
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
53.1
18.5
19.4
31.2
24.3
Capital Goods
Ingersoll Rand
Greaves Cotton
Crompton Greaves
Voltas
Bharat Heavy Elec (BHEL)
Kirloskar Oil Engines
Siemens
ABB
Alstom T&D
BGR Energy Systems
NO
NO
YES
YES
YES
NO
YES
YES
NO
NO
27,115
33,676
111,906
79,429
640,292
38,402
300,583
247,053
117,000
11,098
859
138
179
240
262
266
844
1,166
457
154
613
124
NA
SUSPENDED
NA
NA
NA
NA
444
172
SELL
HOLD
HOLD
NOT RATED
HOLD
HOLD
NOT RATED
NOT RATED
BUY
HOLD
-28.6
-10.1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-2.8
11.8
5,787
17,359
134,806
52,437
403,660
22,870
113,526
76,316
35,638
33,008
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
117,734
78,641
37,291
38,246
Cement
ACC$$$
Ambuja Cements$$$
Ultratech Cement
Prism Cement
Mangalam Cement
YES
YES
YES
NO
NO
259,389
352,377
698,220
39,035
8,421
1,382
227
2,545
78
315
1,476
229
3,029
103
426
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
6.8
0.7
19.0
32.8
35.0
109,084
91,180
214,437
49,932
6,973
NA
91,180
233,966
56,274
11,015
Company Name
Auto
Ashok Leyland**
Bajaj Auto
Eicher Motors** $$$
Exide Industries
Lumax Auto
Hero MotoCorp
Mahindra & Mahindra**
Maruti Suzuki India
Tata Motors Company**
TVS Motor Company
SKF India $$$
Sw araj Engines
BSE200
Index
(CMP as of previous day)
Sales (Rs. Mn)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
114,867
121,595
154,927
197,263
215,132
250,948
68,098
29,903
43,729
59,727
70,123
84,989
7,628
8,619
9,912
251,249
296,380
337,307
669,310
771,050
906,957
444,506
446,109
487,937
2,306,771 2,645,608 3,074,195
83,790
102,253
123,334
22,464
24,579
28,857
6,083
6,144
7,668
EBITDA (Rs.Mn)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
PAT (Rs. Mn)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY14
EPS (Rs.)
FY15E
FY16E
P/E (x)
FY15E FY16E
4,239
41,650
7,178
8,253
608
35,649
101,641
54,649
348,332
4,895
2,699
906
8,465
39,946
7,412
10,178
690
42,997
91,239
52,661
433,026
6,375
3,221
921
14,610
48,063
11,905
13,213
892
54,803
108,362
53,414
499,299
8,608
3,888
1,226
-1,641
33,803
3,939
4,872
302
21,027
46,669
28,529
139,910
1,863
1,667
670
1,004
35,353
5,187
6,346
348
28,560
45,308
28,444
185,324
3,442
2,203
702
6,288
41,098
8,167
8,362
480
36,624
57,195
30,374
220,127
4,979
2,698
915
-0.6
116.8
145.0
5.7
22.2
105.3
75.8
94.4
43.5
3.9
31.6
54.0
0.4
122.0
171.3
7.5
25.5
135.3
73.9
94.2
57.6
7.2
41.8
56.5
2.2
142.0
280.9
9.8
35.2
175.4
94.3
100.6
68.9
10.5
51.2
73.7
NA
20.6
86.5
22.5
11.4
23.2
17.2
36.1
8.5
34.2
31.1
15.8
22.4
17.7
52.8
17.2
8.2
17.9
13.5
33.8
7.1
23.4
25.4
12.1
539,008
604,062
972,564 1,153,284
490,894
556,458
369,777
422,853
222,017
272,458
23,142
25,724
30,319
34,324
9,541
10,683
10,393
12,429
2,343
3,218
8,687
9,555
134,270
251,528
95,078
80,822
42,076
3,631
4,204
726
598
399
1,337
146,449
291,078
106,080
93,823
46,135
3,587
4,079
739
689
551
924
176,100
346,961
123,185
106,711
58,519
4,090
5,011
821
1,043
576
576
106,480
191,639
77,967
65,095
30,288
2,305
2,490
518
178
300
-1,320
117,556
217,774
81,481
70,711
31,499
2,292
2,568
436
-138
335
104
138,221
265,446
91,019
80,555
38,366
2,612
2,982
523
208
543
1,057
93.2
97.7
31.7
91.9
126.8
37.8
13.0
23.0
1.1
28.7
-11.6
102.8
111.3
33.1
100.9
148.8
38.2
12.9
19.5
3.5
22.3
22.3
120.2
127.4
36.9
115.0
181.3
43.5
14.9
23.4
4.0
36.3
36.3
19.2
22.6
16.7
15.2
17.3
9.0
15.6
20.8
13.4
29.4
3.2
16.4
19.8
15.0
13.4
14.2
7.9
13.5
17.3
11.7
18.1
1.9
187,612
172,548
198,263
616,435
541,034
576,866
97,157
127,422
129,713
1,744,771 1,856,503 1,947,767
4,344,600 4,232,981 4,310,096
137,504
80,111
37,028
491,947
357,610
116,926
73,712
53,120
652,913
406,596
131,415
70,328
64,341
736,260
464,820
124,318
47,862
29,420
265,065
224,930
96,529
44,575
36,155
299,224
248,560
110,259
48,118
43,373
349,425
257,076
65.0
37.7
48.9
31.0
76.6
50.5
35.1
60.1
35.0
79.5
57.7
37.9
72.2
40.9
86.3
4.9
12.7
9.5
10.1
11.2
4.3
11.8
7.9
8.6
10.4
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
135,711
87,326
42,616
39,968
455
1,877
6,820
2,693
67,764
3,067
4,383
4,699
3,380
3,992
NA
NA
NA
NA
41,631
NA
9,448
5,471
3,882
4,520
NA
NA
NA
NA
44,331
NA
12,626
7,194
4,834
4,650
670
1,234
2,443
2,454
35,029
1,785
1,940
1,769
1,170
932
NA
NA
NA
NA
35,448
NA
5,173
2,416
1,315
1,607
NA
NA
NA
NA
37,998
NA
7,451
3,748
2,453
1,654
21.2
5.1
3.9
7.4
13.9
12.3
5.5
8.4
3.5
12.9
NA
NA
5.1
5.0
14.5
14.2
14.4
11.3
5.1
14.3
24.5
7.3
6.3
6.5
15.5
15.4
20.6
16.6
9.6
15.4
NA
NA
35.1
48.0
18.1
18.7
58.7
103.2
89.6
10.8
35.1
18.9
28.3
37.0
16.9
17.2
41.0
70.1
47.6
10.0
NA
NA
NA
65,646
13,112
16,300
16,908
39,284
2,056
558
16,764
16,908
NA
3,800
1,305
21,969
16,908
NA
5,510
2,229
10,947
12,786
23,080
-862
296
10,484
14,290
NA
537
463
13,292
17,454
NA
1,429
1,152
58.2
8.3
84.1
-1.8
11.1
55.8
9.2
NA
1.1
17.3
70.8
11.3
NA
2.8
43.2
24.7
24.7
NA
72.7
18.2
19.5
20.2
NA
27.3
7.3
501,330
818,094
434,269
321,437
188,314
23,050
26,940
9,096
9,510
1,944
8,653
IndiaNivesh Universe | Valuation Table (contd...)
Rs. Mn
Mcap
Rs.
CMP
Rs.
TP
Reco
%
(-) Dow n/(+) Up
NO
YES
YES
YES
YES
50,209
333,567
211,560
408,916
91,709
340
980
328
233
148
279
UR
UR
204
180
HOLD
HOLD
UR
HOLD
BUY
-18.0
NA
NA
-12.4
21.4
6,707
76,024
46,865
70,734
77,376
7,676
85,409
57,495
80,707
82,082
8,881
98,899
65,883
93,059
88,977
1,860
11,784
7,591
11,690
7,521
Pharma
Ajanta Pharma
Aurobindo Pharma
Alembic Pharma
Biocon
Cadila
Cipla
Divis Lab
Dr Reddy
Glenmark
Jubilant Life Science
Lupin
Sun Pharma
Ipca Lab
Torrent Pharma
JB Chemical
Shilpa Medicare
Sharon Bio-Medicine
NO
YES
NO
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
NO
YES
YES
YES
YES
NO
NO
NO
80,512
317,551
80,892
84,750
310,941
505,921
227,135
546,021
216,241
19,807
645,877
1,684,429
90,578
176,499
16,915
23,828
3,558
2,289
1,090
429
424
1,519
630
1,711
3,206
797
124
1,438
813
718
1,043
199
618
34
1,846
1,293
412
479
1,636
632
1,802
3,581
775
131
1,710
831
747
1,010
295
473
66
SELL
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
SELL
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
-19.3
18.7
-4.0
13.0
7.7
0.3
5.3
11.7
-2.8
5.3
18.9
2.2
4.1
-3.2
47.9
-23.5
95.8
12,083
80,366
18,632
28,773
70,600
101,004
25,253
132,170
60,052
58,034
112,866
160,804
32,288
40,363
10,006
5,482
13,248
13,935
125,460
22,694
33,263
84,145
112,980
31,786
150,023
69,747
60,354
136,395
187,329
33,272
48,834
11,282
6,114
13,910
16,466
142,379
26,585
38,801
99,115
136,037
38,011
169,881
80,060
68,332
162,445
203,407
39,987
57,643
12,734
7,642
15,997
Others
BASF India Ltd.** &&
UPL
Coromandel International Ltd.
Meghmani Organics Ltd
Sesa Sterlite **
Kajaria Ceramics
Somany Ceramics
Aditya Birla Nuvo Ltd.**
Radico Khaitan Ltd.**
Kaveri Seed Ltd**
HSIL Ltd**
Jindal steel and Pow er**
Godaw ari pow er and Ispat ltd
Liberty Shoes Ltd
HIL Ltd
Pennar Industries Ltd
KPR Mills Ltd
NO
YES
YES
NO
YES
NO
NO
YES
NO
NO
NO
YES
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
51,471
141,718
85,193
5,824
605,538
44,451
11,892
215,606
11,714
54,979
24,447
133,439
4,124
4,576
4,697
6,270
13,526
1,189
331
298
23
204
559
306
1,657
88
798
370
146
126
269
629
52
359
NA
480
353
34
378
635
332
2,729
165
795
380
200
198
336
898
81
570
UR
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
NA
45.2
18.5
48.5
85.1
13.5
8.4
64.7
87.4
-0.4
2.7
37.1
57.3
25.1
42.7
55.5
58.8
42,347
107,709
71,269
11,783
661,524
18,387
12,629
258,934
14,122
10,111
18,582
200,040
15,409
4,835
8,657
11,133
23,710
50,767
121,670
111,207
14,024
782,632
21,862
15,853
278,103
15,695
12,120
21,147
252,483
17,103
5,808
10,984
13,580
26,255
55,304
138,703
125,040
15,518
882,634
28,868
20,483
311,141
17,620
14,423
25,731
311,607
18,976
7,410
13,840
17,247
31,061
Company Name
FMCG
Bajaj Corp
Godrej Consumer Products**
Marico**
Dabur**
Tata Global Beverages**
BSE200
Index
Sales (Rs. Mn)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
EBITDA (Rs.Mn)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
PAT (Rs. Mn)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY14
EPS (Rs.)
FY15E
FY16E
P/E (x)
FY15E FY16E
2,369
13,559
8,708
13,542
8,056
NA
16,135
10,427
16,124
9,137
1,489
7,597
4,854
9,139
4,805
1,955
9,013
5,731
10,672
4,450
NA
11,003
6,937
12,752
5,174
10.1
22.3
7.5
5.2
7.8
13.3
26.6
8.9
6.1
7.0
NA
32.5
10.7
7.3
8.3
25.6
36.8
37.0
38.2
21.0
NA
30.1
30.6
31.9
17.8
3,690
21,396
3,615
7,249
12,207
21,572
10,152
25,465
11,004
11,165
30,859
71,969
8,141
10,545
1,546
1,222
1,575
4,306
28,358
4,614
7,810
16,905
24,392
13,570
33,898
14,876
5,885
36,182
85,130
6,801
12,338
1,817
1,255
1,629
5,138
33,377
5,593
8,970
20,862
32,688
16,400
37,794
17,166
9,634
44,642
89,080
8,819
13,622
2,113
1,652
2,001
2,339
11,729
2,355
4,138
8,036
13,884
7,733
21,515
5,423
1,090
18,364
31,415
4,785
6,639
615
757
703
2,880
17,713
3,124
5,008
10,887
14,240
10,001
22,035
8,965
188
22,881
68,796
4,266
8,916
1,559
809
745
3,462
21,317
3,834
5,780
13,958
20,305
11,962
24,401
10,460
2,332
28,342
71,687
5,890
9,498
1,784
1,118
1,009
66.4
40.2
12.5
20.8
39.3
17.3
58.3
126.0
20.0
6.9
40.8
15.2
37.9
39.2
7.3
19.6
4.7
81.5
60.0
16.6
23.3
53.2
18.0
75.3
129.0
33.2
1.2
51.0
33.2
36.2
49.1
18.0
21.0
6.1
98.0
72.0
20.3
26.9
68.2
25.0
90.1
143.0
38.8
14.6
63.2
34.6
44.4
56.1
21.0
29.0
8.3
28.1
18.2
25.8
18.2
28.5
35.0
22.7
24.9
24.0
103.6
28.2
24.5
19.9
23.4
11.1
29.4
5.5
23.4
15.1
21.1
15.8
22.3
25.2
19.0
22.4
20.5
8.5
22.8
23.5
16.2
18.6
9.5
21.3
4.1
3,642
20,484
9,982
1,684
203,918
2,818
868
46,232
1,935
2,213
2,651
55,287
2,119
394
406
898
4,495
3,294
22,009
9,675
2,309
263,643
3,321
1,013
55,704
2,159
2,948
2,958
72,699
2,854
473
1,074
1,358
4,142
4,368
26,543
10,879
2,698
289,632
4,417
1,320
63,955
2,415
3,578
3,873
80,604
3,152
654
1,748
1,811
5,020
1,279
9,498
3,565
228
62,985
1,242
289
11,429
712
2,090
340
19,104
578
132
71
260
1,417
1,125
12,335
4,328
605
66,145
1,605
451
13,910
759
2,864
852
18,145
907
168
563
528
1,735
1,679
16,338
5,070
833
81,698
2,293
646
17,346
882
3,523
1,277
20,431
1,146
286
1,019
816
2,414
23.6
21.6
15.4
16.4
21.5
16.7
8.3
91.1
3.7
30.3
5.1
20.5
17.7
7.9
14.3
2.0
37.3
26.0
28.7
15.3
2.4
22.5
20.2
11.6
106.9
6.0
42.9
12.9
20.1
27.7
9.9
75.4
4.0
46.1
38.8
37.9
17.9
3.3
27.4
28.9
16.6
133.2
7.0
52.3
22.1
22.2
35.0
16.8
136.5
6.2
64.1
45.8
11.5
19.5
9.5
9.1
27.7
26.4
15.5
14.6
18.6
28.7
7.3
4.5
27.1
8.3
13.0
7.8
30.7
8.7
16.6
6.9
7.5
19.4
18.4
12.4
12.7
15.3
16.7
6.6
3.6
16.0
4.6
8.4
5.6
IndiaNivesh Universe | Valuation Table (contd...)
Company Name
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Idea Cellular
Infra
IRB Infra. Dev
IL&FS Trans. Netw orks
Reliance Infra
Engineers India
Larsen & Toubro
Jaiprakash Associates
Gujarat Pipavav Ports
Real Estate
Oberoi Realty
Phoenix Mills
Nesco
Ashiana Housing Ltd
Company Name
Pow er
Adani Pow er**
CESC Ltd
Coal India
JSW Energy**
NHPC
NTPC
Pow er Grid Corporation
Reliance Pow er
Torrent Pow er**
Tata Pow er Company**
EBITDA (Rs.Mn)
FY14
FY15E
PAT (Rs. Mn)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY14
EPS (Rs.)
FY15E
FY16E
29,683
27,208
NA
32,454
7.0
5.9
8.7
7.7
NA
9.2
6.5
6.2
5.8
5.4
4,591
4,630
19,137
4,827
49,020
-8,248
2,459
NA
3,980
NA
NA
50,680
NA
NA
NA
5,121
NA
NA
61,322
NA
NA
13.8
21.8
72.8
14.3
52.7
-3.7
4.4
NA
15.4
68.7
NA
49.1
-2.0
NA
NA
20.0
76.4
NA
64.7
2.2
NA
8.0
NA
NA
NA
20.0
NA
NA
6.6
NA
NA
NA
16.6
NA
NA
7,295
NA
2,039
NA
3,111
1,285
816
816
3,966
NA
1,311
NA
4,787
NA
1,473
NA
9.5
8.9
58.0
58.0
12.1
NA
93.0
NA
14.6
24.8
104.5
NA
15.6
NA
10.1
NA
13.4
NA
8.6
NA
FY16E
PAT (Rs. Mn)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY14
EPS (Rs.)
FY15E
FY16E
1,282
7,350
208,341
12,439
24,327
103,787
66,617
19,735
125
16,478
-1.04
39.35
23.92
4.60
1.02
13.83
9.47
3.66
2.23
-1.61
-3.17
40.86
28.40
7.47
2.05
11.57
10.51
3.60
8.93
3.98
0.96
65.13
33.00
7.49
2.20
12.54
12.73
7.00
5.23
6.16
Rs.
Rs.
Mcap
CMP
TP
Reco
(-) Dow n/(+) Up
YES
YES
1,419,876
538,133
355
150
405
165
SELL
HOLD
14.0
10.3
857,461
264,320
960,690
302,317
NA
341,618
277,778
81,430
317,649
96,741
355,756
111,026
27,727
19,678
YES
NO
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
83,390
42,275
128,983
75,507
1,391,230
57,041
84,674
251
171
490
224
1,498
23
175
226
246
NA
301
NA
SUSPENDED
151
HOLD
BUY
EXIT
HOLD
NOT RATED
NOT RATED
HOLD
-9.9
43.6
NA
34.3
NA
NA
-13.8
37,319
65,870
190,337
18,465
851,284
198,344
5,830
NA
NA
NA
NA
643,515
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
769,178
NA
NA
17,652
19,031
31,720
3,889
110,951
65,313
2,880
NA
NA
NA
NA
74,426
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
89,477
NA
NA
NO
NO
NO
NO
92,053
50,956
19,816
18,010
280
352
1,406
192
308
329
1,680
202
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
9.8
-6.4
19.5
5.1
7,842
14,485
1,413
1,413
11,498
NA
2,441
NA
13,435
NA
2,698
NA
4,205
6,792
1,039
1,039
6,285
NA
1,549
NA
Rs. Mn
Mcap
Rs.
CMP
Rs.
TP
Reco
%
(-) Dow n/(+) Up
FY16E
EBITDA (Rs.Mn)
FY14
FY15E
118,898
85,254
2,423,273
164,826
209,236
1,178,689
727,453
169,570
79,891
220,021
41
643
384
101
19
143
139
60
169
81
50
NR
422
NA
NA
190
164
110
NA
104
SELL
NOT RATED
HOLD
NOT RATED
NOT RATED
BUY
BUY
BUY
NOT RATED
BUY
20.8
NA
10.0
NA
NA
32.9
17.9
82.0
NA
27.8
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
%
Sales (Rs. Mn)
FY14
FY15E
Rs. Mn
Sales (Rs. Mn)
FY14
FY15E
157,541
101,109
688,100
87,054
74,159
789,217
156,754
51,748
86,811
356,487
187,295
60,584
882,771
94,255
78,815
800,950
178,396
63,220
105,810
367,061
FY16E
204,203
63,679
882,771
98,773
81,928
881,569
210,265
89,011
122,462
387,456
49,899
17,375
178,713
NA
44,460
198,795
133,129
19,167
13,046
77,118
59,924
15,711
208,109
33,763
51,145
228,669
152,433
21,394
16,853
76,710
FY16E
70,555
16,424
240,101
35,325
52,713
207,687
180,051
39,784
16,731
83,014
-2,906
4,916
151,117
7,547
12,188
114,036
45,476
10,267
1,053
-2,600
-10,959
6,943
179,348
12,320
22,819
95,791
54,965
7,723
3,081
10,531
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY15E FY16E
P/BV (x)
FY15E FY16E
2.1
1.3
5.1
2.2
0.7
1.3
1.9
0.8
1.3
1.5
2.1
1.2
4.5
2.0
0.7
1.2
1.7
0.8
1.4
1.4
IndiaNivesh Universe | Valuation Table (contd...)
Company Name
Banking & Financial Services
State Bank of India
Punjab National Bank
Allahabad Bank
Bank of Baroda
Corporation Bank
Federal Bank
Canara Bank
ICICI Bank
HDFC Bank
Axis Bank
DCB Bank
Karur Vysya Bank
YES
YES
YES
YES
NO
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
NO
NO
Rs. Mn
Mcap
Rs.
CMP
Rs.
TP
Reco
%
(-) Dow n/(+) Up
2,293,473
402,984
67,858
454,858
52,491
125,409
199,817
2,044,104
2,318,907
1,166,686
33,695
68,451
307
223
125
1,059
313
147
433
353
960
494
120
566
323
165
87
1,118
NA
153
383
380
910
450
NA
633
HOLD
SELL
SELL
BUY
NOT RATED
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
5.1
-25.9
-30.2
5.5
NA
4.4
-11.6
7.6
-5.2
-8.9
NA
11.8
492,822
161,460
53,113
119,654
37,837
22,286
89,444
164,756
184,826
119,516
3,684
12,837
546,365
175,889
61,130
137,988
43,107
24,527
105,853
190,483
224,084
144,645
5,070
14,233
617,781
200,450
68,248
159,326
50,840
29,066
124,746
214,583
264,608
170,657
6,134
16,891
321,092
113,845
40,204
93,532
30,394
14,804
67,962
165,946
143,601
114,561
1,880
8,378
364,321
119,335
45,837
100,153
34,848
16,334
76,783
195,052
166,885
130,925
2,826
8,831
419,173
138,295
52,399
118,831
43,195
19,670
89,666
225,477
202,896
153,908
3,517
11,096
108,912
33,426
11,720
45,411
5,617
8,389
24,382
98,105
84,784
62,177
1,514
4,296
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
17.3
-18.0
20.7
-3.5
6.6
12.3
18,989
22,153
19,821
116,830
2,295
4,038
22,059
27,202
25,089
143,065
2,658
5,630
26,922
33,694
28,813
165,722
3,190
7,762
18,470
13,490
13,929
5,060
1,466
1,278
21,063
16,832
16,913
6,634
1,723
2,360
25,791
20,553
19,507
7,685
2,110
3,580
13,172
7,190
5,948
1,395
1,287
370
LIC Housing Finance
YES
208,577
413
485
Bajaj Finance
NO
174,693
3,484
2,855
L&T Finance Holding
NO
114,000
66
80
Max India+++
NO
101,387
380
367
CARE+++
NO
42,200
1,455
1,551
CFL
NO
29,603
356
400
Note: ** Bloomberg Est; +++ Manufacturing Format; $$$ Calendar Year; ### Y/E June, && EBIT
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Net Interest Income (Rs. Mn)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
Pre-Tax Pre-Prov. Profit (Rs.Mn)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
PAT (Rs. Mn)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY14
EPS (Rs.)
FY15E
FY16E
P/ABV (x)
FY15E FY16E
137,694
37,160
6,270
49,851
2,729
9,974
26,866
117,280
98,188
69,631
1,624
4,329
159,329
41,692
6,934
60,130
7,322
12,039
32,063
135,188
119,809
81,741
1,779
5,840
15.0
92.0
21.5
105.4
33.5
9.8
52.9
85.0
35.3
26.4
6.0
40.1
18.0
103.0
11.5
115.7
16.3
11.7
58.2
102.0
40.8
30.0
5.8
35.9
21.0
115.0
12.7
139.6
43.7
14.1
69.5
117.0
49.8
35.0
6.3
48.4
2.4
0.3
1.1
1.4
0.9
1.7
0.9
0.5
4.6
2.7
2.3
1.8
2.1
0.3
1.0
1.2
0.8
1.5
0.8
0.5
3.9
2.4
2.1
1.6
13,775
8,679
6,693
1,942
1,482
897
16,864
10,523
8,344
2,249
1,791
1,506
26.1
143.0
3.5
5.2
44.4
4.5
27.3
174.0
3.9
7.3
51.1
10.9
33.4
212.0
4.9
8.4
61.8
16.4
2.5
3.6
1.6
3.2
12.9
2.5
2.2
3.1
1.5
3.0
10.4
2.1
IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited
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Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899
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