Commodities Weekly Tracker

Commodities & Currencies
Weekly Tracker
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Contents
Returns
• Non Agri Commodities
• Currencies
• Agri Commodities
Non-Agri Commodities
• Gold
• Silver
• Copper
• Crude Oil
Currencies – DX, Euro, INR
Agri Commodities
• Chana
• Turmeric
• Jeera
• Soybean
• Refine Soy Oil & CPO
• Cotton
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Global Equities Performance (%)
4.0
3.9
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.7
1.0
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.0
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Currencies Weekly Performance (%)
2.0
1.7
1.2
1.0
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.0
(1.0)
(2.0)
(0.6)
(0.7)
(1.9)
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance (%)
0.0
(2.0)
(0.9)
(1.5)
(1.9)
(2.2)
(2.2)
(4.0)
(6.0)
(5.6)
(5.7)
(6.0)
(8.0)
(8.7)
(10.0)
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Gold
Weekly Price Performance
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Spot gold prices traded lower last week as traders were worried the U.S. Federal
Reserve may remove the phrase "considerable time" before raising interest rates.
As per market expectations following the U.S. Federal Reserve's signal that it
remained on track to raise interest rates in 2015.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the Fed was unlikely to hike rates for "at least a couple of
meetings," meaning April of next year at the earliest.
A drop in the greenback made dollar-priced bullion cheaper for holders of other
currencies.
Waning physical demand and investment demand also exert downside pressure on
prices.
Holdings of the SPDR gold trust also continue its outflow last week indicating low
demand for the metal
In the international markets, spot gold prices declined by 2.20 percent and closed at
$1195.35/oz
On the MCX, gold prices declined by around 0.78 percent and closed at Rs.26998/10
gms.
SPDR Gold Holdings
•
Last week, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust declined by 1.2 tonnes to 724.55 tonnes.
•
On a year-to-date basis, holdings have declined by 73.67 tonnes, or 9.23 percent.
Spot Gold Vs Dollar Index
90.0
1,650
85.0
1,550
1,450
80.0
1,350
75.0
1,250
1,150
70.0
Spot Gold -$/oz
US Dollar Index
MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance
35,000
34,000
33,000
32,000
31,000
30,000
29,000
28,000
27,000
26,000
25,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
MCX- Near Month Gold Futures - Rs/10…
Comex Gold Futures - $/oz
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Gold
CFTC holdings:
•
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the week to December 16th showed that investors have cut their
net longs positions by 794 contracts to 103738 contracts, down by 0.8 percent week on week.
India’s gold import rise is a cause of concern for the government
•
A "phenomenal" rise in India's gold imports is a concern and the government will watch the impact from a recent easing in gold import rules, Trade
Secretary Rajeev Kher said on Tuesday.
Gold imports jumped 34 percent in November to $5.61 billion, sending India's trade deficit to a 18 month high
•
The Swiss franc hit its lowest against the dollar in more than two years, and touched a two-month trough against the euro, last Thursday after the Swiss
National Bank said it would introduce negative interest rates.
In a brief statement, the SNB said it would impose an interest rate of -0.25 percent on sight deposit account balances of over 10 million Swiss francs as it
seeks to discourage safe-haven buying of francs.
Outlook
•
Bearish factors revolve around the commodity for most of this year and this week is also expected to end on the same note
•
Investment demand is waning with gold holdings in the SPDR gold trust at six year low
•
Falling oil prices is also reducing the inflation hedge appeal for the metal
•
Money managers have cut their long side bets on the commodity in the recent weeks acting as a negative factor for prices
•
Spot gold prices in the international markets can head lower towards $1160 mark
•
In the Indian markets, we expect gold prices to trade lower to Rs.26500 mark/10gms
Weekly Technical Levels – Trend Down
•
Spot Gold : Support $1173/$1155 Resistance $1218/$1238. (CMP: $1198)
•
MCX Gold Sell MCX Gold February between 27,450 – 27,500, SL- 27,950, Target – 26,600/26,500 (CMP: Rs.26968)
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Silver
Weekly Price Performance
•
•
•
•
Last week, spot silver prices declined in tandem with fall in gold prices
Strength in the dollar index coupled with weakness in Nickel and Copper prices also acted as
a negative factor
Spot silver prices in the international markets declined by 5.49 percent and closed at
$16.03/oz.
On the MCX, silver prices declined by 4.57 percent and closed at Rs.36940/kg.
Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index
45.0
90.0
40.0
85.0
35.0
30.0
80.0
25.0
75.0
CFTC Holdings
•
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the
week to December 16th reported that net longs have declined by 4965 contracts to 14985
contracts, down by 25% week on week.
20.0
15.0
70.0
Spot Silver -$/oz
US Dollar Index
Outlook
•
•
•
•
•
Silver prices have lost momentum last week as Nickel and Copper prices lost its value
Waning speculative interest along with strength in the dollar will act as a negative factor
Meanwhile, money managers have cut their long side exposures on the asset class acting as
a negative factor for prices
International silver prices might head lower towards $15.50
In the Indian markets, silver prices is expected to trade lower taking cues from weak
international markets and possibly headed lower towards Rs.35000 mark
MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance
34
58,500
32
30
53,500
28
26
48,500
24
22
43,500
Weekly Technical Levels –Trend Down
•
•
20
18
38,500
Spot Silver: Support $15.65/$14.30 Resistance $16.40/$16.80. (CMP: $16.06)
Sell MCX Silver March between 37,700 – 37,800, SL- 38,710, Target – 36,100 / 36,000(CMP:
36901)
16
33,500
14
MCX- Near Month Silver Futures - Rs/ kg
Comex Silver Futures - $/oz
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Copper
Weekly Price Performance
•
LME Copper prices declined by 1.5 percent last week owing to rising supply concerns as China
showed copper output gaining by 3.1 percent in November from the previous month, hitting a
record for the fourth straight month acted as a negative factor.
•
Also, China's new home prices fell again in November as the market continued to defy
government efforts to revive it. Also, gain in LME stocks by 2 percent acted as a negative factor.
•
However, sharp losses were cushioned as Fed chair Janet Yellen stated the Fed may not signal
an increase in rates at least until early next year.
•
On the MCX, prices fell by 0.4 percent and closed at Rs.409.1/kg on Friday.
Copper Inventories
•
On the LME, copper inventories jumped by 2 percent to 170,000 tonnes in the last week as
against a closing of 166,500 tonnes in the prior week.
LME and MCX Copper Price Performance
525
8,300
505
485
7,800
465
445
7,300
425
405
6,800
385
6,300
365
LME Copper Future ($/tonne)
MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)
LME Copper v/s LME Inventory
CFTC Holdings
•
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the
week to December 16 have reduced net short position by 396 lots to 4921 contracts.
700,000
Outlook
•
We expect LME Copper prices to trade higher this week owing to estimates of favorable data
from the US.
•
However, lesser volatility will be observed as major global markets will be closed owing to
short week due to Christmas holiday.
•
In the Indian markets, Copper prices will trade on a positive note in line with trend in the
international markets.
500,000
8,300
600,000
7,800
However, technically we recommend – Trend Sell
•
LME Copper: Support $6295/$6200 Resistance $6490/$6550. (CMP: $6409)
•
Sell MCX Copper Feb between 414 – 415, SL- 419, Target – 404 / 401. (CMP: 409.45)
400,000
7,300
300,000
6,800
200,000
100,000
6,300
Copper LME Inventory (tonnes)
LME Copper Future ($/tonne)
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Crude Oil
Weekly Price Performance
•
•
•
•
Oil markets have continued its weakness in the last week also following a run of losses from the
past six months
Top exporter Saudi Arabia has resisted calls from poorer members to curb output and shore up
prices that have slumped more than 40 percent since June.
Many companies in the US are already starting to make deep cuts to spending for next year. On
Monday, Conoco said it would slash spending by 20 percent, or $3 billion, the biggest reduction
thus far announced by U.S. drillers.
There are speculation that other OPEC members such as Algeria and Venezuela may convince
the group to hold an emergency meeting early next year. Yet others doubt that Saudi Arabia
would agree to production cuts even if such a meeting is held.
•
Oil's near 50 percent drop over the past six-months began on worries about fast-growing U.S.
shale oil supplies and accelerated after OPEC's decision in November not to cut output.
•
WTI oil prices in the international markets declined by 2.2 percent and closed at $56.52/bbl.
•
On the MCX, crude prices declined by 0.6 percent and closed at Rs.3616/bbl.
Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance
7,700
120.0
110.0
6,700
100.0
90.0
5,700
80.0
70.0
4,700
60.0
3,700
50.0
MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl)
NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)
Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)
Oil Inventories
•
•
•
API crude inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels in the week to 381.1 million, compared with
analysts' expectations for a decrease of 2.4 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.8 million
barrels.
Distillate fuels stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1 million barrels,
compared with expectations for a 340,000-barrel gain
Crude inventories fell by 847,000 barrels in the last week. Distillate stockpiles, which include
diesel and heating oil, fell by 207,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 5.3 million barrels.
400
397.5
397.6
395
392
394.1
390
384
385
391.3
388.6
385.4
383.2
380
370.54
363.76
365
360
355
350
377.5
375.9
375
369.1
370
361.3
375.21
370
363.8
364.2
355.6
351.2
374
368.3
366.3
358.4
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
CFTC Holdings
•
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the week to December 16th reported that net longs in crude oil
have increased by 25232 contracts to 209327 contracts, up by 13.71% week on week.
Lower oil prices could boost demand in Asia 2015
•
BP faces a first and heavy loss from its stake in Russia's Rosneft due to plummeting oil prices and a crumbling rouble, potentially forcing it to write down
the value of its once-prized asset.
BP's fourth-quarter earnings could fall by more than two thirds from the previous quarter to 5 cents per share as Rosneft will weigh on its profits with a
loss of up to $750 million, according to several forecasts.
•
Lower oil prices could boost demand in Asia in 2015, with spot interest for diesel, Asia's most widely used fuel, picking up in countries like Vietnam,
Philippines and Indonesia, traders and analysts said.
Asia's oil demand is expected to grow 660,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 31.11 million bpd in 2015, up from this year's growth of 610,000 bpd, according
to estimates by oil and gas consultancy KBC Advanced Technologies.
Outlook
•
Ample supplies have been a dominant factor for rout in oil prices . Unless there is a slow down in shale out put from US or from the OPEC nations
output, prices would sail lower only
•
Persistent concerns over a supply glut and a bearish demand outlook is leading to decline in oil prices.
•
Crude oil prices have been trading lower since mid June this year, and last week also prices continued to trade lower
•
The situation between US and Iraq has to be closely monitored for impacts on the oil prices this week
•
Meanwhile, money managers have raised their bets on crude oil last week which might support prices
•
In the international markets, crude prices are expected to trade lower towards $55 mark.
•
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade lower and possibly headed down towards Rs.3500 mark.
Weekly Technical Levels – Trend Down
•
Nymex Crude: Support $56.30/54.80 Resistance $59.60/61.60 (CMP: $57.98)
•
MCX Crude: Sell MCX Crude Oil January between 3,720 – 3,730, SL – 3,850 Target – 3,520/3,430 (CMP: 3688)
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Rupee
Weekly Price Performance
•
•
•
•
•
•
On a weekly basis, The Indian Rupee and appreciated marginally around 0.1 percent in
yesterday’s trading session.
The currency appreciated after US Federal Reserve said that it would be patient in deciding
when to increase its interest rates.
Further, selling of dollars by the foreign banks supported an upside in the currency. Additionally,
recovery in domestic market sentiments after constant fall of 7 days acted as a positive factor.
However, in the initial part of the week currency has depreciated due to dollar demand from oil
companies and importers.
Further, concerns over the global economic growth acted as a negative factor.
The currency touched a weekly high of 62.20 and closed at 63.24 on Friday.
$/INR - Spot
69.0
67.0
65.0
63.0
61.0
59.0
57.0
55.0
53.0
Foreign Inflows
•
For the month of December 2014, FII inflows in equities totaled at Rs.3430.65 crores ($570.09
million) as on 19th December 2014. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.99450.09
crores ($16494.68 million) as on 19th December 2014.
Economic data
•
India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation declined to nil in November as against a rise of 1.77
percent in October. WPI Food inflation fell to 0.63 percent in November from 2.7 percent in
October.
•
WPI Fuel inflation slipped to negative 4.91 percent in last month with respect to 0.4 percent in
October. WPI Manufacturing Inflation was at 2.04 percent in November in November as
compared to 2.43 percent a month ago.
Outlook
•
We expect Indian Rupee to trade on a mixed note during the week on the back of upbeat market
sentiments along with inflow of foreign funds in markets will act as a positive factor.
•
However, strength in the DX coupled with dollar demand from oil companies and importers will
cap sharp upside or reversal in the currency.
Weekly Technical Levels
•
USD-INR SPOT : Support 62.90/62.40 Resistance 63.80/64.20.(CMP: 63.15)
Economic Data to be released during the
week
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Dollar Index
Weekly Price Performance
•
•
•
The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a positive note and strengthened by more than 1 percent
in the last week on the back of speculation that US Federal Reserve policy makers will remove
their pledge to keep borrowing costs low for a considerable period in their statement.
However, upside in the DX was capped due to upbeat market sentiments which led to decline
in demand for the low yielding currency along with unfavorable economic data from the
country.
The currency touched a weekly high of 89.88 and closed at 89.84 on Friday.
US economic data
•
•
•
•
US Empire State Manufacturing Index was at negative 3.6-mark in December as against a rise
of 10.2-level in November. Capacity Utilization Rate rose to 80.1 percent in November from
79.3 percent in October. Industrial Production increased by 1.3 percent in November with
respect to 0.1 percent a month ago. NAHB Housing Market Index slipped to 57-mark in
December as compared to 58-level in November.
US Building Permits was at 1.04 million in November as against a rise of 1.09 million in
October. Housing Starts grew to 1.03 million in last month from 1.05 million in October. Flash
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipped by 1.1 points to 53.7-mark in
December with respect to 54.8-level a month ago.
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.3 percent in November. Core Consumer Price
Index (CPI) gained 0.1 percent in November as against a rise of 0.2 percent in October.
US Unemployment Claims declined by 6,000 to 289,000 for the week ending on 12th Dec’14
as against a rise of 295,000 in the previous week. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index slipped
sharply by 16.3 points to 24.5-mark in December with respect to 40.8-level a month ago.
Outlook
•
•
We expect the dollar index to trade on a mixed note on the back of upbeat market sentiments
will lead to decline in demand for the low yielding currency which will act as a negative factor.
However, expectations of favorable economic data from the country and US Federal Reserve
going at slow pace for rise in interest rates will cushion sharp fall or reversal in currency.
Weekly Technical Levels
•
Dollar Index (DX) : Support 88.90/88.20 Resistance 90.30/91.0. (CMP: 89.53)
US Dollar Index
91.0
89.0
87.0
85.0
83.0
81.0
79.0
Economic data to be released during the week:
Core Durable Goods Orders – 23rd Dec’14
Time: 7:00pm
Previous : -1.1%, Forecast : 1.1%
Final GDP – 23rd Dec’14
Time: 7:00pm
Previous : 3.9%, Forecast : 4.3%
New Home Sales – 23rd Dec’14
Time: 8:30pm
Previous : 458K, Forecast : 461K
Bank Holiday – 25th Dec’14
Time: All Day
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Euro
Weekly Price Performance
•
The Euro plunged by more than 1.5 percent in the last week on the back of strength in
the DX. However, upbeat market sentiments coupled with favorable economic data
from the region cushioned sharp fall in the currency. The Euro touched a weekly low of
1.2219 and closed at 1.2226 on Friday.
Economic data from the Euro Zone
•
•
•
•
GfK German Consumer Climate grew by 0.3 points to 9-mark in December as against a
rise of 8.7-level in November. Euro Zone Current Account was at 20.5 billion Euros in
October from 32 billion Euros a month ago.
French Flash Manufacturing PMI declined by 0.5 points to 47.9-mark in December as
against a rise of 48.4-level in November. French Flash Services PMI rose by 1.9 points to
49.8-level in December from 47.9-mark in November. German Flash Manufacturing
PMI gained by 1.7 points to 51.2-level in December as compared to 49.5-mark in last
month. German Flash Services PMI fell to 51.4-mark in current month with respect to
52.1-level in November.
Euro Zone Flash Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.8-mark in December when
compared to 50.1-level in last month. Euro Zone Flash Services PMI also grew to 51.9level Dec’14 from 51.1-mark in Nov’14. German ZEW Economic Sentiment surged
sharply by 23.4 points to 34.9-mark in December as against 11.5-level in November.
Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment grew by 20.8 points to 31.8-level in current month
with respect to 11-mark in Nov’14.
German Ifo Business Climate rose to 105.5-mark in December as against a rise of 104.7level in November.
Outlook
•
•
The Euro will trade on a mixed note over the week on the back of upbeat market
sentiments and favorable economic data from the region will act as a positive factor.
While on the other hand, strength in the DX will cap sharp upside or reversal in the
currency.
Weekly Technical Levels
•
EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.2100/1.9870 Resistance 1.2450/1.2690. (CMP: 1.2238)
Euro/$ - Spot
1.4
1.36
1.32
1.28
1.24
1.2
Economic Data to be released during the week:
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Chana
Weekly Price Performance
•
Chana Jan. futures traded on a positive note up by 5.98% due to lower levels
buying as well as demand of Dal from the wholesalers. In the week, prices have
made a high of 3318 levels and low of 3073 levels .
Fundamentals
•
•
•
•
According to latest estimates of coverage under Rabi pulses has reached
119.19 lakh hectares as on Dec 19, 2014 which is 9.7% lower as compared to
previous year. Chana has been sown over 75.15 lakh hectares as on Dec 19,
2014 which is 16% lower than the area sown during the same period previous
year.(Source – Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture)
The Department of Revenue in consultation with the Ministry of Agriculture
proposes a 10% import duty on gram/chana.
The CCEA has set Chana MSP for 2014-15 season at Rs. 3175/qtl. from Rs. 3100
last year.
Canada chickpeas/chana production for 2014 is estimated at 123 thousand
which is -27.39% lower than previous year while -7.66% lower than previous
estimates released in September 2014.
Outlook
•
Chana futures are expected to trade on a mixed to negative note due to ample
supplies of imported Chana and sluggish demand may restrict sharp gains
Weekly Strategy
•
Buy NCDEX Chana Jan between 3240– 3250, SL – 3140, Target- 3400 / 3450
(cmp – 3297)
NCDEX Chana Jan.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Turmeric
Weekly Price Performance
•
Turmeric Apr. futures traded on a positive note up by 4% due to strong domestic
as well as export demand from overseas.
Fundamentals
•
Sowing of Turmeric in AP for the 2014-15 season is reported at 0.13lakh ha, as
against 0.1 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.19lakh ha. The area in
Telangana stood at 0.446 lakh ha against 0.431 lakh ha last year.
•
As per the market sources, the total production of turmeric in the current year is
expected to be around 35-37 lakh bags against 52 lakh bags of the last year.
•
Exports between Apr-Sep 2014 stood at 43,000 tn, up 9% compared to 39,200 tn.
in Apr-Sep2013. (Source: Spices Board).
•
In the last week, more than 1500 tns arrivals are recorded across the country.
Jamgipur (WB), Erode (TN) and Sangli (Mah) has seen maximum arrivals. Rajapuri
variety at Sangli has fetched average prices of Rs.7500/ qtl whereas finger and
bulb at Jangipur and Erode fetched Rs 5450/qtl and Rs 6725/qtl
Outlook
•
Turmeric futures may trade on a mixed to positive note. Arrivals of poor quality
crop, huge carryover stocks and higher acreage in Telangana may keep prices
under check. However, demand from the north and crop concerns may support
prices.
Weekly Strategy
•
Buy NCDEX Turmeric Apr between 7950 – 8000, SL – 7800, Target – 8200 / 8300
(CMP – 8060)
NCDEX Turmeric Apr.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Jeera
Weekly Price Performance
•
Jeera Jan. futures traded on a positive note up by 2.83% due to strong export
demand and as well as lower sowing acreage reported in major producing area
like Gujarat and Rajasthan.
Fundamentals
•
Sowing has been commenced in Gujarat and Rajasthan but it reported that there
was about 35-40% less sowing in Gujarat compared to last year in the beginning
of Dec.
•
Last year production of jeera in India was 55 lakh bags (around 3 lakh tons).
Around 35 lakh bags stocks from this year crop has come to the market so far.
•
Arrivals in the last week were down to almost 50% to around 2500 tonnes as
compared to the week ended Dec 12 in Gujarat and Rajasthan markets. (Source:
AGMAKRNET)
Exports jump due to Global supply concerns
•
Exports of Jeera between Apr-Sep 2014 stood at 87500 tn, up 24% as against
70,243 tn against same time last year. (Source: Spices Board).
•
Geo-political tensions in Syria, one of the largest exporters of the spice has led to
good demand for Indian Jeera from the overseas markets.
Outlook
•
Jeera futures are expected to trade on a positive note. Good export demand and
lower acreage may supports the prices.
Weekly Strategy
•
Buy NCDEX Jeera Jan between 13700 –13800, SL – 13400, Target –14450/14500.
(CMP – 14000)
NCDEX Jeera Jan.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Soybean, Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil
Weekly price performance
•
Soybean Jan futures closed on mixed note down by 0.66% due to thin trading
session noticed in spot as well as in futures market. Ref soy oil Jan futures closed
positive up by 1.65%.
NCDEX Soybean Jan.
Fundamentals
•
In 2014/15, Soybean sowing reported a decline of 12 lakh hac to 112 lakh and
production to decline by 3.5% to 9.17 mt compared to 9.5 mt last year.
•
As per Solvent Extractors’ Association data, total import of vegetable oils jumped
26% in Nov 2014. which stood at 1.2 mt compared to 944,309 tonnes last year.
•
November 2014 soymeal exports decline by almost 79% to 1.1 mt as compare to 5.2
mt exported during same month last year.
•
CPO has been hit hard due decline in crude oil prices. The correlation between palm
oil and crude oil is due the bio diesel and ethanol industry.
Highlights of USDA WASDE Report
•
Global Soybean production is projected at a record 312.8 mt in Dec 2014/15 up 9.6%
compared to 2013/14 estimates. During this month there is gain in production data
for Canada, Ukraine and Paraguay
•
Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 530.7 million tons, up
1.8 million tons from last month. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 104.1
million tons, up 1.1 million from last month and 23.5 million above year-earlier
levels.
Outlook
•
Soybean and Ref soy oil futures may trade on a mixed note. Expectation of higher
global oil seed production may pressurize the prices.
Weekly Strategy
•
•
Buy NCDEX Soybean Jan between 3230 – 3250, SL – 3120, Target – 3450 / 3500
(CMP – 3314)
Buy NCDEX Ref Soya Oil Jan between 595– 600, SL – 580, Target – 625/ 630 (CMP –
601)
NCDEX Ref Soy Oil Jan.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
Cotton
Weekly Price Performance
•
•
•
As Expected in the last week prices were closed on a negative note on increasing
arrivals of cotton in physical market. NCDEX Kapas and MCX Cotton Futures settled
0.25% and 1.25% lower respectively w-o-w.
In 2013-14 the cotton production in India was 3.75 crores bales (1 bale=170kg) and
this year production estimated is around 4 crores bales. Exports have dropped by
40% y-o-y with prices declining up to 30% for the same time period.
According to Chinese Government survey, the cotton production is down 2.2% and
fell by 6.16 mt as cotton area shrank nearly 3%. The output in Xinjiang, China's top
cotton growing region, was pegged at 3.68 million tonnes, lower than most market
estimates of around 4-4.1 million tonnes.
NCDEX Kapas Apr’15.
Global Cotton Updates (WASDE Report)
•
•
•
Latest report has pegged global output down from its previous month's estimates.
Production is reduced for the US and Greece, with smaller revisions in several
other countries. World ending stocks are projected at just over 108 million bales.
Global consumption is reduced nearly 1.3 million bales, reflecting lower forecasts
for China, India, Brazil, Pakistan, and Turkey.
US production reduced to 474,000 bales whereas Domestic mill use and exports
are unchanged. Ending stocks are now forecast at 4.6 million bales, or one-third of
total disappearance.
Outlook
•
Cotton futures may trade on a mixed note. Lower levels buying interest may
supports the prices, however international weak trend may pressurize the prices.
Weekly Levels
•
•
MCX Cotton Dec Trend Sideways. S1- 15700 , S2- 15300, R1– 16300, R2- 16800.
(cmp – 15810)
NCDEX Kapas April Trend Up. S1- 795, S2 – 775, R1 – 825, R2 – 840 (cmp – 812)
MCX Cotton Dec.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | December 22, 2014
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