E-CL 3Q14.indd

EARNINGS REPORT
October 30th, 2014
Recommendation
E-CL 3Q14
NEUTRAL
Strong results in the period, due to be er prices and lower
costs. Net income boosted by higher net financial income and
posi ve FX eﬀects
CLP 914
CLP 815
12.1%
Target Price
Current Price
Upside Potential
3Q14 results above market expecta ons in EBITDA and Net Income, due to
lower fuel costs, higher energy selling prices and an increase in gas sales.
RATIOS FORECAST
2013
2014E
2015E
10,5x
7,2x
8,4x
2,2x
1,8x
1,9x
P/E
63,2x
17,0x
31,8x
P/B
1,2x
0,9x
0,9x
Dividend yield
2,6%
2,9%
4,4%
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
E-CL published its 3Q14 results, showing sales of USD 320M, in line with our es mates, an EBITDA of USD 92M (+25.1% YoY, 12.4% above our es mates), and a net income of USD 41M, well above market consensus and showing an increase of 180.2%
YoY.
During the period the company exhibited lower genera on, especially in diesel, leading to lesser fuel costs, which coupled with higher average selling energy prices and
more gas sales, led to a be er opera onal performance and an increase in EBITDA
of 25.1% YoY.
PRICE VS IPSA
120
IPSA
110
E-CL
Energy monomic prices were boost due to a posi ve indexa on to Henry Hub (4.62
USD/MMBtu), which increased by 27% YoY, leading to higher tariﬀs for regulated
clients by 4%.
100
90
80
70
60
50
jun/14
ago/14
abr/14
dic/13
feb/14
oct/13
jun/13
ago/13
abr/13
dic/12
feb/13
oct/12
jun/12
ago/12
40
Coal genera on improved QoQ due to fewer plants in maintenance, while LNG genera on decreased because U16 (a unit of Tocopilla thermal plant) low availability.
Deprecia on was reduced due to a change in the life of coal plants (to 40-45 years).
Gas sales represent a significant part of EBITDA growth, going from USD 1M IN 3Q13
to USD 28.3M this quarter.
CONTACT
Pilar Montaner
562 2692 - 1836
[email protected]
Agus n Álvarez
562 2692 - 2576
[email protected]
@BICEinversiones
Net income improved significantly compared to 3Q13 due to a low comparison base.
Financial costs decreased 10.5% YoY and foreign currency exchange diﬀerences registered earnings of USD 2.8M, as a result of the implementa on of strategies for
managing foreign exchange risk.
3Q14
BICE EsƟmates
%Real/Est.
3Q13
%YoY
Revenues
USD M
320
325
-1,7%
303
5,6%
EBITDA
92
82
12,4%
74
25,1%
28,8%
25,2%
41
24
EBITDA Mg.
Earnings
24,3%
71,2%
14
Net Margin
12,7%
7,3%
4,8%
EPS
0,039
0,022
0,014
180,2%
180,2%
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E-CL 3Q14
In our opinion market reac on to results should be posi ve due to strong opera onal
performance. However, we believe it is important to no ce that according to CNE esmates, Henry Hub indexa on should slow down next year, leading to lower energy
sale prices to regulated clients, situa on that could temper opera onal performance
of the company.
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SALES TEAM
RESEARCH TEAM
Felipe Figueroa E.
Agus n Álvarez M.
Equity Sales and Trading
ﬃ[email protected]
Head of Research
[email protected]
Jacinto Laso P.
Leonor Skewes L.
Research Vice President, Commodi es & Industrial
[email protected]
Equity Sales and Trading
[email protected]
José Manuel Baeza O.
Aldo Morales E.
Equity Sales and Trading
[email protected]
Retail & Consumer Staples
[email protected]
Daniel Sanhueza R.
Jason Barra V.
Equity Sales and Trading
[email protected]
Transporta on & Healthcare
jbarra @bice.cl
Tomás Ritchie M.
Pilar Montaner R.
Equity Analyst
[email protected]
Equity Sales and Trading
[email protected]
Sebas án Senzacqua B.
Andrés De la Cerda G.
Chief Economist
[email protected]
Fixed Income and Currency
[email protected]
Camilo Larraín D.
Senior Strategy Analyst
[email protected]
Francisca Bustamante C.
Strategy Analyst
[email protected]
Felipe Barragán H.
Economy and Fixed Income
Analyst
[email protected]
Contact
Follow
Download
Visit
600 400 4000
@BICEInversiones
App BICE Inversiones
biceinversiones.cl
The analyst or analysts involved in the crea on of this document hereby cer fy that the views expressed in this document accurately reflect their personal opinions
and that they have not and will not receive direct or indirect compensa on for expressing specific recommenda ons or views in this report. This report has been
prepared by BICE Inversiones and is subject to change without no ce. BICE Inversiones and employees shall have no obliga on to update or amend any informaon contained herein. This report is for informa onal purposes only, based upon publicly available informa on, which we believed is reliable, but its accuracy and
completeness cannot be guaranteed. BICE Inversiones makes no express or implied representa ons or warran es that such informa on is accurate or complete
and, therefore, BICE Inversiones and employees shall not in any way be liable for related claims. The informa on and analyses contained herein are not intended
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