Outline M ODELING D EPENDENCE IN M ULTIVARIATE T IME S ERIES WITH A PPLICATIONS TO B RAIN S IGNALS Hernando Ombao University of California at Irvine May 15, 2014 Outline O UTLINE OF TALK 1 S CIENTIFIC M OTIVATION 2 OVERVIEW S PECTRAL A NALYSIS 3 C URRENT WORK Outline O UTLINE OF TALK 1 S CIENTIFIC M OTIVATION 2 OVERVIEW S PECTRAL A NALYSIS 3 C URRENT WORK Outline O UTLINE OF TALK 1 S CIENTIFIC M OTIVATION 2 OVERVIEW S PECTRAL A NALYSIS 3 C URRENT WORK Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis C ONNECTIVITY A NALYSIS OF B RAIN S IGNALS Electrophysiologic data: multi-channel EEG, local field potentials Hemodynamic data: fMRI time series at several ROIs Neuronal: spike train and local field potentials Current Work Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work DATA F ROM D ESIGNED N EUROSCIENCE E XPERIMENTS External Stimulus Visual, Auditory, Somatosensory, Stress Personality traits, Genes, Socio-Environmental Factors Brain Signals (indirect measures of neuronal activity) Functional: fMRI, EEG, MEG, PET Anatomical: DTI Acute Outcomes Emotion, Skin conductance, Motor response Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work G OALS OF OUR RESEARCH Stimulus Neuronal Response Brain Signals Behavior Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work G OALS OF OUR RESEARCH Stimulus Neuronal Response Brain Signals Genes Moderators Modifiers Trait Socio-Environment Behavior Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation G OALS OF OUR RESEARCH Changes in the mean Changes in variance Changes in Cross-Dependence Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work P ROJECT ON L EARNING CONTE Center on OCD (Brown, Rochester, MGH) OCD characterized by abnormal risk assessment leading to excessive avoidance Compulsions can significantly interfere with normal routine OCD patients have reduced activation in the nucleus accumbens - dysfunctional reward circuitry At Brown Psychiatry (Rasmussen and Greenberg): brain stimulation of OCD patients My collaboration entails Studying dynamics of neural circuitry associated with OCD Identifying associations between neurophysiological response and behavior Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work P ROJECT ON L EARNING Learning study on a macaque monkey Collaborator: Emad Eskandar (Neurosurgery, MGH) Goal in one study: explore dynamic connectivity between the nucleus accumbens (NAc) and the hipocampus (Hc) NAc plays a central role in the reward circuitry Hc plays a role in memory (in particular, storing and processing spatial information) Data: local field potentials Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis P ROJECT ON L EARNING Fixation Picture on Picture off Four doors on ? ? ? ? NAc HC Time 0 512 block 1 1024 block 2 1536 block 3 2048 block 4 Current Work Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work P ROJECT ON THE DYNAMICS OF NEURONAL NETWORKS DURING DECISION MAKING Collaborator: David Moorman (Neuroscience, UMass-Amherst) Goals Model how neural systems assimilate information to produce decision Model interactions between neurons in the medial pre-frontal cortex (mPFC) during decision making Subjects: Rats Experiment: Choose between low risk-low reward vs high risk-high reward Data: spike train and local field potentials (multi-modal) Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work P ROJECT ON THE DYNAMICS OF NEURONAL NETWORKS DURING DECISION MAKING Microwire arrary implanted in the brain of a rat (Moorman Lab) Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work P ROJECT ON THE DYNAMICS OF NEURONAL NETWORKS DURING DECISION MAKING Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work P ROJECT ON THE DYNAMICS OF NEURONAL NETWORKS DURING DECISION MAKING Spike Train Neuron 1 LFP GC Spike to Spike GC LFP to Spike GC Spike to LFP GC LFP to LFP Neuron 2 Wavelet Coherence GC = Granger Causality Neuron 3 time t Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work P ROJECT ON THE DYNAMICS OF NEURONAL NETWORKS DURING DECISION MAKING The activity of ensembles of neurons provide more information than that of single neurons Some questions: Does past spiking activity in one neuron influence future propensity to spike of another neuron? Does past oscillatory activity in one neuron influence future propensity to spike of another neuron? Impact of pharmacologic agents on connectivity between neurons in a network Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work R ESEARCH ON S TATISTICAL T HEORY AND M ETHODOLOGY Characterize dependence in a brain network Temporal: Y1 (t) ∼ [Y1 (t − 1), Y2 (t − 1), . . .]′ Spectral: interactions between oscillatory activities at Y1 , Y2 Develop estimation and inference methods for connectivity Investigate connectivity as a biomarker Predict mental state (level of mental fatigue) At UC Irvine (PI: Cramer) Predict performance in learning a new motor skill in healthy controls Predict recovery of motor functionality in stroke patients Discrimination between patient groups (e.g., bipolar vs. healthy control) Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work R ESEARCH ON S TATISTICAL T HEORY AND M ETHODOLOGY Interpretability of new dependence measures Incorporate information across trials, across subjects Compare brain network across conditions Integrate multi-modal data (Spike train, LFP, EEG, fMRI, DTI) Statistical model should be informed by physiology and physics Dimension reduction: extract information from massive data that is most relevant for estimating dependence Develop formal statistical inference procedures Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work R ESEARCH ON S TATISTICAL T HEORY AND M ETHODOLOGY In this talk, Develop a directly relevant spectral measure of dependence Exploratory analysis of brain signals (LFPs and spike train) Present our proposed unified framework - Evolutionary Harmonizable Process Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work S PECTRAL A NALYSIS - A R EGRESSION P OINT OF V IEW X (t) STATIONARY TEMPORAL PROCESS Cramér Representation X (t) = R exp(i2πωt)dZ (ω), t = 0, ±1, ±2, . . . Basis Fourier waveforms exp(i2πωt), ω ∈ (−0.5, 0.5) Random coefficients dZ (ω) – increment random process EdZ (ω) = 0 and Cov[dZ (ω), dZ (λ)] = δ(ω − λ)f (ω)dωdλ Var dZ (ω) = f (ω)dω Spectrum f (ω) VARIANCERDECOMPOSITION of the time series: Var X (t) = f (ω)dω Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work I LLUSTRATION OF S PECTRUM = VARIANCE D ECOMPOSITION AR(1): Xt = 0.9Xt−1 + ǫt Low Frequency Oscillations 8 6 4 2 0 −2 −4 −6 −8 −10 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work I LLUSTRATION OF S PECTRUM = VARIANCE D ECOMPOSITION Spectrum of AR(1) with φ = 0.9 Frequency 0.5 0 0 1 Time Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work I LLUSTRATION OF S PECTRUM = VARIANCE D ECOMPOSITION AR(1): Xt = −0.9Xt−1 + ǫt High Frequency Oscillations 6 4 2 0 −2 −4 −6 −8 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work I LLUSTRATION OF S PECTRUM = VARIANCE D ECOMPOSITION Spectrum of AR(1) with φ = −0.9 Frequency 0.5 0 0 1 Time Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work I LLUSTRATION OF S PECTRUM = VARIANCE D ECOMPOSITION Mixture: Low + High Frequency Signal 20 15 10 5 0 −5 −10 −15 0 100 200 300 400 500 Time 600 700 800 900 1000 Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work I LLUSTRATION OF S PECTRUM = VARIANCE D ECOMPOSITION Spectrum of the mixed signal Frequency 0.5 0 0 1 Time Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work C ROSS - COHERENCE - A MEASURE OF DEPENDENCE Multivariate stationary time series: X(t) = [X1 (t), . . . , XP (t)]′ Random vector increment process d Z(ω) = [dZ1 (ω), . . . , dZP (ω)]′ Cramér representation Z 0.5 exp(i2πωt)d Z(ω) X(t) = −0.5 Cov[d Z(ω), d Z(λ)] = 0 for ω 6= λ Var d Z(ω) = f(ω)d ω Coherence between Xp (t) and Xq (t) |ρpq (ω)|2 = |Corr[dZp (ω), dZq (ω)]|2 Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work C ROSS - COHERENCE - A MEASURE OF DEPENDENCE Illustration: Interactions between oscillatory components Latent Signals U1 (t) - low frequency signal U2 (t) - high frequency signal Observed Signals X (t) Y (t) = = U1 (t) U1 (t + ℓ) + U2 (t) + + Z1 (t) Z2 (t) X and Y are linearly related through U1 . Cross-correlation will confirm the linear association between X (t) and Y (t). Cross-coherence will identify the frequency band(s) that drive the linear association. Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work C ROSS - COHERENCE - A MEASURE OF DEPENDENCE X1(t) Delta Theta Alpha Beta Gamma X2(t) Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work C ROSS -C OHERENCE : A N I NTUITIVE I NTERPRETATION Filtered Signals [see Ombao and Van Bellegem (2008, IEEE Trans Signal Processing)]: Xω (t) = Fω X (t) Yω (t) = Fω Y (t) Zω (t) = Fω Z (t) Filtered signals have power concentrated around ω Coherence at frequency band around ω ρX ,Y (ω) ≈ |Corr (Xω (t), Yω (t))|2 Partial coherence Remove Zω (t) from Xω (t): ξωX (t) = Xω (t) − βX Zω (t) Remove Zω (t) from Yω (t): ξωY (t) = Yω (t) − βY Zω (t) Cov(ξX (t),ξY (t)) 2 ω ω √ ρX ,Y |Z (ω) = X (t) Var ξ Y (t) Var ξω ω Fiecas et al. (2010, 2011) - estimation by shrinkage Relevant work: Pupin (1898) Estimator for fX (ω) is Var Xω (t). Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work C ROSS -C OHERENCE : A N I NTUITIVE I NTERPRETATION Limitation of classical coherence: interactions between oscillations only at a single frequency Low freq oscillations in X vs Low freq oscillations in Y High freq oscillations in X vs High freq oscillations in Y Dual-frequency (cross-frequency) interactions Interactions between low frequency and high frequency oscillations Limitation: interactions constant over time Further generalizations needed Evolutionary (time-varying) dual-frequency coherence Lagged dual-frequency coherence Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work A P ROPOSAL : G ENERALIZED C OHERENCE Frequency bands (1, 4) Hertz - Delta (4, 8) Hertz - Theta (8, 12) Hertz - Alpha (16, 30) Hertz - Beta (30, 70) Hertz - Gamma Dual-frequency (cross-frequency) interactions Contemporaneous dependence: interactions between alpha oscillation activity in X and beta activity in Y at the same time block Lagged relationships: dependence between oscillations at adjacent time blocks Predictions: does current oscillatory pattern predict future oscillations? Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis A P ROPOSAL : G ENERALIZED C OHERENCE X1(t) X2(t) Delta Theta Alpha Beta Gamma Classical Coherence Current Work Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis A P ROPOSAL : G ENERALIZED C OHERENCE X1(t) X2(t) Delta Theta Alpha Beta Gamma Dual Frequency Coherence Current Work Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis A P ROPOSAL : G ENERALIZED C OHERENCE X1(t) X2(t) Delta Theta Alpha Beta Gamma Evolutionary and Lagged Coherence Current Work Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work E XPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF A MONKEY LFP DATA Subject: male macaque monkey Data Local field potentials in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) and hipocampus (Hc) R = 100+ trials; each trial has T = 2048 time points (≈ 2 seconds); band-filtered at (0.05, 150) Hertz In memory and learning studies, evidence of θ − γ coupling Collaborators Gorrostieta (UC-Irvine), Prado (UC-SC), Patel (Boston Univ) and Eskandar (MGH) Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work E XPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF A MONKEY LFP DATA Fixation Picture on Picture off Four doors on ? ? ? ? NAc HC Time 0 512 block 1 1024 block 2 1536 block 3 2048 block 4 Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work E XPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF A MONKEY LFP DATA Fixation Picture on Picture off Four doors on ? ? ? ? Theta HC NAc HC NAc HC NAc HC NAc Gamma HC NAc HC NAc HC NAc HC NAc Time 0 512 block 1 1024 block 2 1536 block 3 Correct > Incorrect 2048 block 4 Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work H ISTORICAL OVERVIEW Harmonizable process (1955) Xt = Z 0.5 exp{2πiωt}dZ (ω) −0.5 {dZ (ω)} not necessarily uncorrelated. Generalized Spectrum - Loéve Spectrum Cov(dZ (ω), dZ (λ)) = f (ω, λ)d ωd λ Long history: Loéve (1955); Scharf (1990’s); Lii and Rosenblatt (1998,2002); Hindberg and Hanssen (2007) Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis H ISTORICAL OVERVIEW Stationary Process R 0.5 Xt = −0.5 A(ω) exp(i2πωt)dZ (ω) where Cov[dZ (ω1 ), dZ (ω2 )] = δ(ω1 − ω2 )d ω1 d ω1 Spectrum f (ω1 , ω2 ) = A(ω1 )A∗ (ω1 ), if ω1 = ω2 0, if ω1 6= ω2 In the stationary case, f is “diagonal" Current Work Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work H ISTORICAL OVERVIEW Locally Stationary Process R 0.5 Xt = −0.5 At (ω) exp(i2πωt)dZ (ω) [Priestley (1965)] R 0.5 Xt,T = −0.5 A(t/T , ω) exp(i2πωt)dZ (ω) [Dahlhaus (1997)] Evolutionary Spectrum f (u, ω) = A(u, ω)A∗ (u, ω) In our set up, the evolutionary spectrum f is time-dependent and diagonal. Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis H ISTORICAL OVERVIEW Harmonizable Process - Loève R 0.5 Xt = −0.5 exp(i2πωt)dZ (ω) Generalized Spectrum Cov[dZ (ω1 ), dZ (ω2 )] = f (ω1 , ω2 )d ω1 d ω2 Dual-frequency spectrum f (ω1 , ω2 ) Measures the “global" cross-oscillatory interactions between ω1 and ω2 f is not constrained to be “diagonal" Current Work Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work A PROPOSAL : E VOLUTIONARY H ARMONIZABLE P ROCESS Xt,T = R 0.5 −0.5 exp(i2πωt)dZt,T (ω) Cov[dZt,T (ω1 ), dZt,T (ω2 )] = ft,T (ω1 , ω2 )d ω1 d ω2 f is both time-dependent and not constrained to be diagonal Measures the time-varying dependence between the ω1 and ω2 oscillations ρ(pq) (t/T , ω1 , ω2 ) = |f (pq) (t/T , ω1 , ω2 |2 f (pp) (t/T , ω1 , ω1 )f (qq) (t/T , ω1 , ω2 ) Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work A PROPOSAL : E VOLUTIONARY H ARMONIZABLE P ROCESS 0 Stationary 1 0 T Locally Stationary 0 T Locally Harmonizable 0 T Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis A PROPOSAL : E VOLUTIONARY H ARMONIZABLE P ROCESS Current Work Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work A PROPOSAL : E VOLUTIONARY H ARMONIZABLE P ROCESS Stationary 0 1 0 1 Locally Stationary Harmonizable 0 1 Locally Harmonizable 0 1 Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work E STIMATION AND I NFERENCE X r (t) multivariate time series for trial r = 1, . . . , R Fourier coefficient on block around time t T d r ,p (t, ω) = 2 X Xpr (s) exp(−i2πωs) s=−( T2 −1) Contemporaneous dual-frequency cross-periodgram for the r -th trial at time block around t I r ,(pq) (t, ω1 , ω2 ) = d r ,p (t, ω1 )d r ,q,∗ (t, ω2 ) Estimator of contemporaneous generalized cross-spectrum R X bf (pq) (t/T , ω1 , ω2 ) = 1 I r ,(pq) (t, ω1 , ω2 ) R r =1 Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis E STIMATION AND I NFERENCE Estimator of the evolutionary dual frequency auto-coherence ρb(pp) (t/T , ω1 , ω2 ) = |bf (pp) (t/T , ω1 , ω2 )|2 bf (pp) (t/T , ω1 , ω1 )bf (pp) (t/T , ω2 , ω2 ) ρb(pq) (t/T , ω1 , ω2 ) = |bf (pq) (t/T , ω1 , ω2 )|2 bf (pp) (t/T , ω1 , ω1 )bf (qq) (t/T , ω2 , ω2 ) Estimator of the evolutionary dual frequency cross-coherence Current Work Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work E STIMATION AND I NFERENCE The contemporaneous Loéve (generalized) cross spectral estimator is asymptotically unbiased for the Loéve cross-spectrum, i.e., as R, T → ∞, Ebf (pq) (t/T , ω1 , ω2 ) −→ f (pq) (u, ω1 , ω2 ). Remark. This result is a generalization of the asymptotic unbiasedness of classical periodograms in Brillinger (1981) and Brockwell and Davis (1991). Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work E STIMATION AND I NFERENCE For sufficiently large block length T and number of trials R, (pp) bf (pp) (t/T , ω1 , ω1 ) f (t/T , ω1 , ω1 ) b(qq) f (qq) (t/T , ω2 , ω2 ) V (t/T , ω2 , ω2 ) f is AN b(pq) ℜf (pq) (t/T , ω1 , ω2 ) , R . ℜf (t/T , ω1 , ω2 ) ℑf (pq) (t/T , ω1 , ω2 ) ℑbf (pq) (t/T , ω1 , ω2 ) Details: Gorrostieta, Ombao and von Sachs (2014, under revision). Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work C OLLABORATORS Space-Time Modeling Group at UC-Irvine Yuxiao Wang, Zhe Yu, Babak Shahbaba, Duy Ngo, Cristina Gorrostieta Sam Behseta (Cal State Fullerton) and Rainer von Sachs (Université catholique de Louvain) Brain Scientists Moorman (UMass), Eskandar (MGH) Outline of Talk Scientific Motivation Overview Spectral Analysis Current Work ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Support from the NSF-DMS and NSF-SES Thanks for Professor Devin Koestler for the invitation! Thanks to the Department of Biostatistics at the University of Kansas Medical Center for the warm hospitality!
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