David Harquail Oct. 16 ,2014

The New Normal
David Harquail
Oct. 16 ,2014
1
My Mining Roots
Thayer Lindsley
James Harquail
• Falconbridge
• Redstone Res.
• Ventures
• Nufort Res.
• Sherritt Gordon
• More Mines
• Giant Yellowknife
• Nahanni Mines
• Canadian Malartic
• Cumont Ltd.
• United Keno Hill
• Fort Reliance
• Lake Dufault
• Gortdrum Mine
• Opemiska Copper
• Nahanni 60’s
• Connemara
• Whim Creek
2
The Midas Brothers
Pierre
Lassonde
Seymour
Schulich
3
1980’s Writedowns
4
Lack of X-Ray Vision
Hypothetical 10 Moz open-pit (1g/t) drilled with a 4.4 cm DDH
Spacing
(m2)
Holes
Drilled
Metres
Drilled
Cost
($mm)
Knowledge
Density
100
75
41,000
$6
1/5.5 million
50
300
207,000
$31
1/1.4 million
25
1120
880,000
$132
1/345,388
Source: RBC Capital Markets
5
Mining Investment Outcomes
Mediocre
Frauds +
promotions
Write-offs
Better than
average
Negative capital returns Positive capital returns
World class
company makers
Real returns
6
Successive Investor Themes
Maximize:
1. Ounces
2. NPV
3. Growth
4. Free cash flow
7
Alternate Investments Are Taking Over
SILVER EQUITY UNIVERSE
Source: Silver Wheaton
8
Gold Equity Universe
Market Capitalization
Average Daily Trade Value
~$ 22 B
~$ 310 M
~$ 65 B
~$ 820 M
~$ 140 B
~$ 1775 M
Gold Equities
Gold ETFs
Royalty & Stream Companies
Gold Equities
Gold ETFs
Royalty & Stream Companies
9
Franco-Nevada’s Royalty Business
Duketon
Palmarejo
Goldstrike
Maximize
Minimize
Exploration upside
Cost exposures
Security of tenure
Potential for encroachments
Management time on new deals
Involvement in operations
Long term optionality
10
“A Gold ETF on Steroids”
Gold ETF
FNV
Operators
Capital Costs
0%
0%*
100%
Operating & Other Costs
0%
0%*
100%
Leverage to Gold Price
1
>1
>1
Exploration & Expansion
0%
100%
100%
(0.4%)2
~1.5%
0 - 3%
Risk of:
Benefit of:
Dividend Yield
FNV provides yield and more upside than a gold
ETF with less risk than an operator
1. Revenue royalties & streams
2. Source: SPDR® Gold Trust
11
“The Gold Investment that Works”
300%
CAGR1: 23%
FNV
250%
200%
150%
100%
GOLD
50%
0%
-50%
S&P/TSX Global
Gold Index
FNV IPO:
Dec 2007
-100%
2008
2009
2010
2011
FNV and S&P/TSX Global Gold Index converted to USD. Chart to October 14, 2014
1. From IPO to October 14, 2014 – includes dividends
2012
2013
2014
12
The Next New Thing?
•
•
•
•
Long term capital partnerships?
First Nations partnerships?
Production sharing?
……..
13
The New Normal
14