5/8/14 WE KNOW WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
PM Optimization:
Using Data-driven Analytics for
Life Centered Maintenance
Edzel Lapira, PhD
[email protected]
David Siegel, PhD
[email protected]
Rodrigo Vieira
[email protected]
OUR HISTORY & CORE TECHNOLOGY
•  Predictronics was started by senior researchers and developers from
the National Science Foundation Industry/University Cooperative
Research Center for Intelligent Maintenance Systems (IMS), which has
been a leader in predictive maintenance technologies since 2001.
•  At the core of Predictronics’ solutions is the Watchdog Agent®
Toolbox: A collection of intelligent, rapidly deployable software agents
that can enable users to realize worry-free uptime of critical assets.
2
1 5/8/14 INDUSTRY VALIDATIONS
3
E
ABL
R
GU
FI
PREDICTRONICS’ VALUE PROPOSITION
R
E
C
ON
4
2 5/8/14 EVOLUTION OF MAINTENANCE PARADIGMS
Trend of Maintenance Paradigm for Engineering Systems
Reactive
Maintenance
•  Fail & Fix
ConditionBased
Maintenance
Preventive
Maintenance
•  Time based
• 
•  Reliability centered
• 
maintenance
•  FMECA – usage based
(unit, hours, …)
Need based
Condition
monitoring and
assessment
Prognostics
and Health
Management
• 
• 
• 
• 
Predict & Prevent
Predictive maintenance
CBM+
ISHM, IVHM
Precision & Optimal Maintenance
“PHM is a system engineering discipline focusing on detection,
prediction, and management of the health and status of complex
engineered systems.”
-- the First International Conference on PHM (2008)
5
PM OPTIMIZATION
CONDITIONBASED
Maintenance
REACTIVE
Maintenance
and/or
PREVENTIVE
Maintenance
EVENT-BASED
(Maintenance
Records, alarms,
and fault logs)
LIFE
CENTERED
MAINTENANCE
HYBRID MODEL
and/or
PROGNOSTICS
& HEALTH
MANAGEMENT
DATA-DRIVEN
(Controller or process
data, sensor signals and
measurements)
6
3 5/8/14 IMS’ SYSTEMATIC PHM SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
7
ROBOT TORQUE MONITORING
Data
Performance Feature
Torque
Joint 1 Joint 6 Joint 5 Normal Behavior
Joint 2 3 Joint Most Recent Behavior
Health Assessment
Joint 4 Performance
Confidence Value
Health Radar Chart
Health Information
Health Visualization
8
4 5/8/14 TORQUE DATA DURING NORMAL/HEALTHY CONDITION
•  The RMS torque data for each of the six robot axis consists of a
single value for one complete cycle of the robot and the value is
acquired once per hour.
•  After each cycle, the disturbance torque values in the positive and
negative directions are also taken for each joint
9
TORQUE DATA DURING A KNOWN FAULTY CONDITION
•  In this example, the joint profile for axis 3 starts to deviate from the
• 
torque profiles for the other 5 axis, indicating that it is experiencing
degradation and eventual failure.
The failure signature is visually noticeable; however detecting the
early signs of this problem requires more advanced analytical
methods.
10
5 5/8/14 DATA-DRIVEN ROBOT TORQUE MONITORING
11
ROBOT MONITOR – SHOW TREND OPTION
12
6 5/8/14 Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
Life Centered Maintenance (LCM)
Rodrigo Vieira
Visiting Scholar
Center for Intelligent Maintenance Systems (IMS)
University of Cincinnati
Decision Making Process
Da
(M
e
as
ta
/ In
for
ure
m
en
ts
a
ma
nd
E
tio
n
ve
De
nts
)
Decision
Making
Support
“Agent”
Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
s
on
si ts)
i
c
(E
n
ve
De
ns
io
s
ci
rt
po
p
Su
Ex.:
Maintenance Strategy Models
14
7 5/8/14 Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)
►  Methodology and Practical Example:
Asset: Wind Turbine
Component: Gearbox
Maintenance Action: Gearbox Preventive Maintenance
(MTBM = 6 Months)
“Theoretical Maintenance Plan”
Last
Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance
Action
Action
Action
Action
Action
“Now”
...
Why?
- Asset Condition
- Production Windows
- Maintenance Team availability
- Spare Parts availability
- Work Tools availability
- Weather Constraints, etc…
“Real Maintenance Plan”
Maintenance
Action
Maintenance Maintenance
Action
Action
Last
Maintenance
Action
“Now”
...
Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
15
Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)
Maintenance Maintenance
Action
Action
Maintenance
Action
Last
Maintenance
Action
“Now”
...
Maintenance
Action
Interval
Maintenance
Action
Interval
Maintenance
Action
Interval
Maintenance
Action
Interval
# Actions
Bad “-1”
Ok “0”
Very Bad “-2”
40
Good “+1”
50
Very Good “+2”
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance
PrevMaintCost
CorrMaintCost
TotalDownTimeCorr
TotalNoProdCorr
/
=
>> Preventive Maintenance Cost PrevMaintCost/h
>> Corrective Maintenance Cost CorrMaintCost/h
TBM
TotalDownTimeCorr/h
>> Total No Produced Energy due to
Corrective Maintenance
TotalNoProdCorr/h
>> Total Downtime due to Corrective
Maintenance
Life-Requirements
Label Description
(Very Bad)
-2
Unsatisfactory Life-Requirement
(Bad)
-1
Below Life-Requirement Reference
(Ok)
0
Achieve Life-Requirement Reference
(Good)
+1
Above Life-Requirement Reference
+2
Greatly Above Life-Requirement “Ref. (Very Good)
30
20
10
“Life-Requirements Class”
0
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
PrevMaintCostHour($/h)
Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
0.2
0.25
16
8 5/8/14 Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)
►  Wind Turbine Examples:
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance
140
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance
100
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance
70
120
80
60
80
20
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindFarm Class for TotalDownTimeCorr(h)
0.5
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindTurbine Class for 002 PrevMaintCostHour($/h)
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindTurbine Class for 002 CorrMaintCostHour($/h)
0.5
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindTurbine Class for 002 TotalDownTimeCorr(h)
Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
Ok
Very Good
1
Good
1.5
# Actions
Ok
Good
Very Good
1
2
Bad
1.5
# Actions
Ok
Good
Bad
Very Good
# Actions
0.5
1
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindFarm Class for TotalNoProdCorr(kW)
2
Very Bad
Very Good
Ok
Good
Bad
Very Bad
2
1.5
20
Bad
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindFarm Class for CorrMaintCostHour($/h)
2
40
10
Very Bad
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindFarm Class for PrevMaintCostHour($/h)
# Actions
30
20
20
1
# Actions
40
40
40
Very Bad
60
60
# Actions
80
1.5
60
50
# Actions
# Actions
100
0.5
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindTurbine Class for 002 TotalNoProdCorr(kW)
17
Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)
Maintenance
Action
Maintenance
Action
Maintenance
Action
Interval
“4x” Life-Requirements
Multi-Dimensional Scaling (MDS)
MDS 2
“4x” Life-Requirements Class
MDS 1
Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
18
9 5/8/14 Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)
Maintenance
Action
GLR Indicator Evaluation
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance
𝐺𝐿𝑅(𝑡) = ( 𝛾𝑟 ∗120
𝐿𝑅𝑟 (𝑡) 120
100
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance
100
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance
140
100
60
60
40
20
20
40
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindFarm Class for PrevMaintCostHour($/h)
20
80
30
20
Maintenance
Action
Interval
60
40
60
40
20
10
40
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindFarm Class for TotalDownTimeCorr(h)
2
2
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindFarm Class for TotalNoProdCorr(kW)
20
2
Good “+1”
Gearbox Preventive
Maintenance
1.5
1.5
120
0
1
-2
-1
01
1
2
-2
-1
01
1
2
WindFarm GLR
Indicator
WindFarm GLR
Indicator
0.5 100
0.5
0.5
1.5
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindTurbine Class for 002 CorrMaintCostHour($/h)
80
# Actions
2
60
Ok “0”
-2
0.5
Bad “-1”
1
-1
0
1
2
WindFarm GLR0.5
Indicator
2
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindTurbine 002 GLR Indicator
0
Very Bad “-2”
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindTurbine 004 GLR Indicator
Greater Cincinnati-Northern
1.5Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
# Actions
Very Good “+2”
1.5
40
0
0
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindTurbine Class for 002 TotalNoProdCorr(kW)
2
20
1
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindTurbine Class for 002 TotalDownTimeCorr(h)
MDS 2
0.5
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindTurbine Class for 002 PrevMaintCostHour($/h)
# Actions
0
1
# Actions
1.5
# Actions
# Actions
1.5
# Actions
0
-2
-1
0
1
2
WindFarm Class for CorrMaintCostHour($/h)
# Actions
2
# Actions
# Actions
50
# Actions
80
# Actions
# Actions
# Actions
40
80
60
80
80
60
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance
70
120
100
Maintenance
Action
MDS 1
19
1
0.5
0
WindTurbine 002 GLR Indicator
Life-Centered
Maintenance (LCM)
-2
-1
Decisions
“Clustering”
Decisions
“Label”
Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
0
1
2
… Decision (“Launch a Maintenance Action”)
… For Similarity
… Normal v.s. Abnormal
… Based on “System/Machine” Objective
… Better v.s. Worse
20
10 5/8/14 Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)
►  Wind Turbine Examples:
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance - GLR Indicator Evaluation - Wind Farm vs Wind Turbine 002
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance - GLR Indicator Evaluation - Wind Farm vs Wind Turbine 004
2
2
1.5
3
1.5
3
BetDec
BetDec
1
2
1
2
0.5
0.5
1
0
0
MDS 2
MDS 2
1
0
0
-0.5
-1
-0.5
-1
-1
WorDec
-1
WorDec
-2
-2
-1.5
-3
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2
-1.5
-3
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2
MDS 1
MDS 1
Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
21
Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)
Decisions
“Clustering”
Decisions
“Label”
Decisions
“Understanding”
Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
… Decision (“Launch a Maintenance Action”)
… For Similarity
… Normal v.s. Abnormal
… Based on “System/Machine” Objective
… Better v.s. Worse
… Help/Support the “Decision Making Staff”
to understand its “decisions impact” over
the “machine objective”
22
11 5/8/14 Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)
►  Wind Turbine Examples:
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance - GLR Indicator Evaluation - Wind Farm vs Wind Turbine 002
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance - GLR Indicator Evaluation - Wind Farm vs Wind Turbine 004
2
2
1.5
3
1.5
3
BetDec
BetDec
1
2
1
2
0.5
0.5
1
0
0
MDS 2
MDS 2
1
0
0
-0.5
-1
-0.5
-1
-1
WorDec
-1
WorDec
-2
-2
-1.5
-3
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2
-1.5
-3
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2
MDS 1
MDS 1
Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
23
Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)
Decisions
“Clustering”
Decisions
“Label”
Decisions
“Understanding”
Decisions
“Learning”
Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
… Decision (“Launch a Maintenance Action”)
… For Similarity
… Normal v.s. Abnormal
… Based on “System/Machine” Objective
… Better v.s. Worse
… Help/Support the “Decision Making Staff”
to understand its “decisions impact” over
the “machine objective”
… From Previous Decisions
… Expert System
(Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System) - ANFIS)
24
12 5/8/14 Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)
GLR Estimation
(Based on “Health Indicators”)
OUTPUT VARIABLES
(Training Phase)
“Now”
GLR
“Life-Requirements”
Expert
System
INPUT VARIABLES
“Measurements”
GLR Estimation
f(“Measurements”)
Decision Making
Support
GLR Rules
AHRV11
AHRS11
.
.
.
AHRVij
AHRSij
GLR Estimation
f(“Measurements”)
Maintenance
Action
Maintenance
Action
GLR Real
f(Life-requirements)
“Now”
GLR Prognosis
f(“Health Indicators
Prediction”)
TBM
Maintenance
Action
Interval
Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
25
Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)
Decisions
“Clustering”
Decisions
“Label”
Decisions
“Understanding”
Decisions
“Learning”
Decisions
“Prognostic”
… Decision (“Launch a Maintenance Action”)
… For Similarity
… Normal v.s. Abnormal
… Based on “System/Machine” Objective
… Better v.s. Worse
… Help/Support the “Decision Making Staff”
to understand its “decisions impact” over
the “machine objective”
… From Previous Decisions
… Expert System
(Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System - ANFIS)
… Predict/Prognosis the “decisions impact”
over the “machine objective”
Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
“Now”
26
13 5/8/14 Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)
►  Wind Turbine Examples:
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance - GLR Indicator Evaluation - Wind Farm vs Wind Turbine 002
3 Weeks
GLRp = +0.1
Gearbox Preventive Maintenance - GLR Indicator Evaluation - Wind Farm vs Wind Turbine 004
2
1.5
3
2
3 Weeks
GLRp = +0.2
2 Weeks
GLRp = +0.6
3
BetDec
1
2
2 Weeks
GLRp = -0.6
1 Week
2
GLRp = -0.3
1
0.5
0.5
1
1
0
0
MDS 2
MDS 2
1.5
BetDec
0
0
-0.5
-1
-0.5
-1
-1
WorDec
-2
-1.5
1 Week
GLRp = -1.0
-3
-3
-1
WorDec
-2
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2
-1.5
-3
-3
-2
MDS 1
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2
MDS 1
Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
27
Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)
Decisions
“Clustering”
Decisions
“Label”
Decisions
“Understanding”
Decisions
“Learning”
Decisions
“Prognostic”
… Decision (“Launch a Maintenance Action”)
… For Similarity
… Normal v.s. Abnormal
… Based on “System/Machine” Objective
… Better v.s. Worse
… Help/Support the “Decision Making Staff”
to understand its “decisions impact” over
the “machine objective”
… From Previous Decisions
… Expert System
(Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System - ANFIS)
… Predict/Prognosis the “decisions impact”
over the “machine objective”
Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky
Chapter Meeting - SMRP
“Now”
28
14 5/8/14 Thank you for your attention…
29
15 

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