From Netscape and Amazon to Facebook and Alibaba: The Golden Age of company formation and how it is transforming our society Bill Brady Chairman, Global Technology Group December 2014 Alibaba Group – Largest IPO in history! Company Description Alibaba is the largest online and mobile commerce company in the world in terms of gross merchandise volume (GMV) in 2013, operating Taobao Marketplace, Tmall, Juhuasuan, Alibaba.com and other platforms US$296 billion (RMB1,833 billion) Total GMV 279 million Annual active buyers 8.5 million “To make it easy to do business anywhere” Transaction Structure Ticker / exchange: Pricing date: Deal size: Offer price: 14.5 billion Annual orders 32.8% US$71 billion Of total GMV from mobile transactions(1) (RMB442 billion) Mobile GMV 190+ 86.1% Countries where buyers are located(2) Of total mobile retail GMV in China(1) BABA / NYSE Largest IPO in history September 18, 2014 Nine day two-team roadshow, covering Asia, the US and London, meeting over 2,000 investors Price range was revised to $66 – 68 from $60 – 66, given overwhelming demand and priced at $68 Heavily subscribed book of demand with high quality long-only, sovereign wealth fund, and hedge fund investors Strong aftermarket performance: stock opened / closed at US$92.70 / US$93.89 on the 1st day of trading, up 36.3% / 38.1% from the IPO price, reaching an intra-day high of US$99.70 (up 46.6%) US$25,032 MM (14% of enlarged share capital, 41% primary) US$68.0 per ADS US$60.0 – 66.0 per ADS Revised price range: US$66.0 – 68.0 per ADS 1 Packages generated on Alibaba’s China retail marketplaces Offering Highlights Initial price range: FD market cap: Annual active sellers 6.1 billion US$176,806 MM The evolution of computing environments over time and subsequent company formations Each new computing cycle offers larger opportunities than the previous one (Devices or users in millions; logarithmic scale) Mobile Internet 1,000,000 100,000 Desktop Internet 10,000 10BN+ Units? 1,000 PC 1BN+ Units / Users 100 Minicomputer 100MM+ Units 10 Mainframe 10MM+ Units 1 1MM+ Units 0 1960 1970 Source: Morgan Stanley Mobile Internet Report (12/09). 3 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 A history lesson: 28 years of innovative companies which have changed the way we live 6,000 Mainframe PC Client Server Internet Web SaaS Social Big Data Mobile Cloud 5,000 / / 4,000 3,000 2,000 / 1,000 (1) 0 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Nasdaq (1) 4 NASDAQ down 11% in 1 day on Oct. 19, 1987. Amazon Roadshow slides 5 5 Amazon Roadshow slides (cont’d) 6 6 Amazon Roadshow slides (cont’d) 7 7 Amazon Roadshow slides (cont’d) 8 8 Amazon Roadshow slides (cont’d) 9 9 A history lesson: 28 years of innovative companies which have changed the way we live 6,000 Mainframe PC Client Server Internet Web SaaS Social Big Data Mobile Cloud 5,000 / / 4,000 3,000 2,000 / 1,000 (1) 0 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Nasdaq (1) 10 NASDAQ down 11% in 1 day on Oct. 19, 1987. So where are we now? Disruptive themes in the Technology and Internet sectors 8 disruptive themes in Internet 12 1 Golden age of company formation 2 eCommerce is transforming society / marketplaces 3 Sharing economy creates massive public infrastructure at no marginal cost 4 Educational system is broken resulting in shortage of skilled workers 5 Healthcare and wearables represent a massive opportunity 6 Peer to peer lending is a no brainer for borrowers and investors / Lending Club 7 Online video / OTT content threatening the traditional entertainment model 8 App proliferation and the re-imagination of our lives 1 Internet and mobile makes connection between people more seamless Smartphone shipments WW Internet usage & mobile penetration 1,296 Number of Internet users (BN) % mobile penetration of total Internet usage 978 Mobile penetration CAGR ’14 – ’18: CAGR ’09 – ’17: 28% 25% Internet users CAGR ’00 – ’18: 14% 4.0 175 2.9 61% 2009 2014 2017 Tablet shipments 398 271 CAGR ’10 – ’17: 53% 25% 20 0.4 0% 2000 2014 2018 Source: Statista 2014, Cisco Visual Networking Index, Portio Research. 13 2010 2014 2017 1 New age unicorns are created over-night $200K seed funding Aug 2009 expansion round valuation Jun 2014 valuation Aug 2013 $250K seed funding $170MM (Oct 2009) revenue 2012 vs. vs. $19BN $1.9BN acquisition by Facebook (Feb 2014) revenue 2013 Source: Thomson Reuters, Wall Street Journal, TechCrunch, Forbes, entrepreneur.com. 14 $18BN $3.5BN $800MM early stage valuation Jun 2013 vs. $10BN est. valuation in next round Jul 2014 $1BN valuation Jul 2011 vs. $10BN valuation Apr 2014 1 Golden age of company formation on the back of shrinking technology costs $1,197 $569 $222 1992 2012 1992 Computing 1/10 15 1992 2012 Digital Storage Bringing startup costs down to 2002 $23 $0.03 $0.06 th 2012 Bandwidth where they were a decade ago 2012 Source: Deloitte, Forbes. Note: Computing represents dollars per million transistors; digital storage represents dollars per gigabyte; bandwidth represents dollars per 1,000 Mbps. 1 Slashing ownership costs for enterprise-grade software Legacy Cloud ~77% reduction in TCO for ITSM software ~50% reduction in TCO for ERP Source: Servicenow.com, Hurwitz & Associates. 16 Retail infrastructure GDP (% consumption) Demographics Emerging markets present massive opportunity Disposable income growth 1 Population: 1,347MM 317MM 192MM 143MM 27 31 39 $1.9TN $2.2TN $2.1TN 62% 63% 52% Median age: 38 37 $16.8TN $9.2TN 69% 34% Strong Weak Weak Moderate Moderate Low High High High High Source: CIA world factbook, World Bank data, Euromonitor and OECD data. 17 1,211MM 1 Internet leaders are using their currency to expand outside the box October 2014 $200MM+ October 2014(1) $1,600MM October 2014 $725MM (Connected home) (Content) (Online video advertising) August 2014 $842MM July 2014 $500MM (Gaming) (Online video advertising) July 2014 $300MM June 2014 $555MM (Analytics) (Monitoring & security) June 2014 $500MM May 2014 $3,000MM April 2014 $60MM March 2014 $20MM March 2014 $2,181MM 18 (Satellites) February 2014 $637MM January 2014 $500MM January 2014 $3,200MM December 2013 $200MM November 2013 $345MM July 2013 $1,848MM May 2013 $1,100MM May 2013 $370MM July 2012 $334MM (Music) (Drones) (Drones) (Virtual reality) March 2012 $775MM January 2012 $492MM August 2011 $9,121MM Source: FactSet, company press releases, news. Note: Transaction date based on announcement date. (1) Alibaba rumored to be acquiring a 37.4% minority stake in Lions Gate Entertainment in a deal worth up to $1.6bn. (Digital map & navigation) DEEPMIND (Artificial intelligence) (Connected home) (Search & analytics) (3D sensor) (Mobile) (blogging) (Video streaming) (Semiconductor) (Robotics) (Semiconductor) (Mobile) 2 eCommerce is transforming society / marketplaces A vicious cycle: The Circuit City bankruptcy 41,495 (% Online penetration) 25.0% total jobs displaced Feb 2007 (Stock price) $35.00 553 stores 2003 22.5% 623 stores Plan to close 70 international stores $30.00 Nov 3, 2008 $25.00 398 stores 20.0% Plan to liquidate and close 155 stores $20.00 17.5% $15.00 15.0% Nov 10, 2008 $10.00 File for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy 12.5% $5.00 10.0% 2003 – 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Consumer electronics online penetration 19 Source: Wall Street research, Reuters, FactSet, Daily Finance. Note: Total jobs displaced represents number of jobs cut since peak. 2009 2010 2011 Circuit City stock price 2012 2013 2 eCommerce is transforming society / marketplaces A vicious cycle: Blockbuster bust 60,000 (% Online penetration) total jobs displaced Sep 15, 2009 40.0% 4,356 stores Announces closure of 960 stores (Stock price) $1.80 $1.60 $1.40 30.0% $1.20 Sep 23, 2010 20.0% $1.00 Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy $0.80 April 6, 2011 Dish Network acquires Blockbuster for $233MM 10.0% $0.60 0.0% 2008 2009 2010 Netflix US household penetration 20 Source: Wall Street research, Reuters, FactSet, news. Note: Total jobs displaced represents number of jobs cut since peak. 2011 Blockbuster stock price 2012 Nov, 2013 $0.40 Closes remaining 300 stores $0.20 $0.00 2013 3 Sharing economy creates massive public infrastructure at no marginal cost $160BN $21BN in construction costs(2) in construction costs(1) 19,521 unique listings in NYC 56.6 hotels(1) 12 countries covered by Bla Bla Car 21 Source: (1) (2) (3) Recode, Company websites, Google.com, Railway Technical, Skift, Crains New York. Based on equivalent number of rooms and residences and construction costs of the Park Hyatt Hotel in 2010. Construction costs based on cost per km for constructing a non-high speed, double-track line in France in 2010. Represents the distance across continental Europe from Lisbon, Portugal to Moscow, Russia. 4,564 km(3) of railroads 3 Airbnb: disrupting the hospitality industry Airbnb is the #1 hospitality provider in the world (Number of listings / available rooms, in thousands) 800 687 676 672 645 346 Source: Fast Company, Airbnb. 22 4 Online education models are democratizing and innovating the learning experience / MOOCs Stanford “Intro to AI” class demonstrates massive impact Classroom version MOOC version 200 students 160,000 students Reaching 3x the entire Ivy League student body Source: US News, CNN. 23 Engaging education experiences Access to high quality education Anywhere, anytime Asynchronous / learn at your own pace Free-to-learn Individualized, 1-to-1 engagement Source: Euromonitor Report. 24 Personal care Alcohol Communications Education Recreation / culture Clothing & footware Household goods Hospitality Food & beverage Leisure Transport Goods / services Housing Healthcare 5 Healthcare is a massive problem #1 cost of the US economy (% of GDP) 20% $3TN annual US healthcare spend 5 Digital health will drive efficiencies and improvements in healthcare / wearables Big Data Global wearable device data traffic (Petabytes per month) 98% 61 CAGR 2 2013 2018 $300–$450BN cost savings Changing behavior User 43% Takes more steps taken per day Pervasiveness of sensors 10x–40x Micro sensor 25 cost savings compared to CT scan Source: McKinsey & Co, 2013; entrepreneur.com; CBS News; Concord Imaging; Statistica. (1) Deloitte, 2014. Figure represents percent of problems that could be solved by an “eVisit” in the US and Canada. 50% fewer in-person doctor visits(1) 6 Peer to peer lending is a no brainer for borrowers and investors Lower costs for borrowers Higher returns for investors 29% F E D C decrease in rates on average B A 7.5x–18.5x better returns Direct end-to-end lending platform Credit card Acquire Price Underwrite 7.4% Originate 1.0% 0.4% 2yr Tsy Source: Bankrate, Credit Suisse and Lending Club. 26 2yr CD P2P 6 Disrupting a massive $1.1TN US credit card and SMB loan market Case study: Total loans issued for Lending Club skyrocketing ($ in billions) Next $2bn 5.5 (6 months) 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 2nd $1bn (9 months) 3.0 2.5 1st $1bn 2.0 (67 months) 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan 09 Source: Lending Club. 27 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 7 All-access Hollywood: disruptive online content shift Traditional studio model A boy + computer + Internet Development Louisiana Screenwriter Financing Pre-production Director Manager Casting Sound Talent Agency <1% make it Production Post-production <1% make it # of views: Distribution Source: YouTube, Yahoo. 28 815,881,104 7 Driving online players to create their own content Wonderly Big Frame Fullscreen 29 7 And content owners to create their own online platforms Subscription 30 Transactional Ad supported 7 Global OTT (Over-the-Top) messaging services taking over >1B users in less than 5 years Global Messaging Ecosystem – Select Players 2013 31 WhatsApp (USA), 4+ Years Tencent WeChat (China), 3+ Years MAUs = 400MM, +100% Y/Y Messages / Day = 50B, +178% Y/Y MAUs = 355MM, +125% Y/Y Line (Japan), 2+ Years KakaoTalk (Korea), 3+ Years MAUs = 280MM Messages / Day = 10B Revenue= $388MM, +5x Y/Y (Q4:13) Messages / Day = 5.2B, +24% Y/Y Revenue= $203MM, +4x Y/Y Snapchat (USA), 2+ Years Viber (Israel), 3+ Years Messages / Day = 1.2B MAUs = 100MM Source: Publicly disclosed company data for 2013. Note: Snapchat messages / day comprises number of snaps sent per day and number of stories viewed per day. 8 Evolution of apps Internet unbundling First, multi-purpose web apps... ...now, single-purpose = 'there's an app for that... ' Source: Megan Quinn, KPCB Partner. 32 ... then, multi-purpose mobile apps... 8 Re-imagining life through apps Pinterest 750MM+ cumulative Boards (4/14) 30B+ cumulative Pins +50% Pin growth vs. 10/13 IMGUR 130MM MAUs (3/14) 3B page views per month 1.5MM images uploaded & 1.3B images viewed per day MyFitnessPal 65MM registered users (+50% Y/Y, 5/14) 100MM+ pounds lost by users since inception Source: Company data. 33 Fitbit 47B 2.4T steps (2011 2013)... Distance = Earth to Saturn Eventbrite Tinder $1B gross ticket sales in 2013 (+60% Y/Y) 58MM tickets sold (+61% Y/Y) 1MM events in 187 countries 800MM swipes per day (+21x Y/Y, 5/14) 11MM matches per day (+21x Y/Y) Github 13MM repositories in 2013 (+100% Y/Y) 10K users added per weekday 8 Re-imagining Snapchat… 34 China: Mobile commerce innovation leader Tencent WeChat = 400MM Mobile Active Chat Users… Increasingly Using Payments + Commerce WeChat 'My Bank Card' Page Manage money / invest in money market funds via WeChat Payment Order taxi – powered by Didi – pay via WeChat Payment New Year Lucky Money – fun / social game to incentivize users to link bank cards to WeChat Payment... 5MM users used on Chinese New Year Eve, 2014 Find restaurants / daily group buy deals – powered by Dianping and pay via WeChat Payment Source: Tencent, Liang Wu (Hillhouse Captial). 36 Tencent WeChat Services = Virtual Assistant Personal Banker Shopping Assistant Private Chef Grocery Getter China Merchant Bank allows customers to check & repay balances and ask live questions via WeChat Mogujie / Meilishuo (fashion discovery & shopping sites) give customers tailored suggestions via WeChat Hahajing (a chain deli restaurant) allows customers to order & deliver food via WeChat Xiaonongnv (a grocery delivery startup) prepares fresh groceries & delivers to your address via WeChat WeChat Service Accounts = Interactive Accounts with Communication / CRM / Ordering Capability Source: Liang Wu (Hillhouse Captial). 37 Didi Taxi – 100MM+ Users = 5MM+ Daily Rides, +15x in 77 Days... Driven by WeChat Payment Integration & Subsidy(1) Didi Taxi, Daily Taxi Trips Booked, 1/10/2014 – 3/27/2014 38 Source: Didi, Liang Wu (Hillhouse Captial). (1) Subsidy ranges from $1-3 per ride. Estimated total subsidy during this period was ~$233MM. Alipay Yu’E Bao – Mobile Money Market Fund Launch... Drove $89B AUM(1) in 10 Months Simple, fun-to-use mobile product Built on top of Alipay – the most popular online payment platform in China with 160MM+ accounts Technology enables same-day settlement $0 $89B asset under management in 10 months Top 3 global money market fund by assets under management (AUM) Alipay Yu'E Bao Assets Under Management, 5/13 to C1:14 ($ in billions) Asset Under Management $89 $31 $9 $1 Launch (5/29/13) 39 Source: Alipay, Liang Wu (Hillhouse Capital). (1) AUM is asset under management, Fidelity and Vanguard manage more assets than Alipay’s Yu’E Bao. 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 Case Study of Alibaba Group Company highlights and key investor feedback Alibaba’s track record of growth Year and China Internet population(1) Alibaba founded in Jack Ma’s apartment in Hangzhou Alibaba.com launched 1688.com (formerly known as Alibaba.com.cn) launched 9MM 1999 80MM 2003 Aliwangwang instant messenger launched on Taobao Marketplace Alipay launched 94MM 2004 210MM 2007 TMall launched 298MM 2008 384MM 2009 Juhuasuan launched AliExpress launched Mobile Taobao App launched 457MM 2010 513MM 2011 618MM 2013 Alimama monetization platform launched Taobao Marketplace started to monetize (1) 41 Source: CNNIC. Taobao Marketplace launched Alibaba Cloud Computing founded Alipay separated from the Company Singles Day promotion recorded GMV settled through Alipay of RMB36.2 billion (US$5.8 billion) Major marketplaces and services China retail marketplaces Taobao Marketplace (Online shopping destination) Tmall.com (Brands and retail platform) Juhuasuan (Group buying marketplace) AliExpress (Global consumer marketplace) Alibaba.com (Global wholesale marketplace) 1688.com (China wholesale marketplace) Alipay (Payment services)(1) China Smart Logistics (Logistics information system)(2) Alimama (Online marketing services) Data Platform Alibaba Cloud Computing (Platform for internal and third-party use) 42 (1) (2) Through contractual arrangements. Alibaba’s 48% owned affiliate. Key investment highlights 43 1 Large China commerce opportunity 2 Scale and market leadership 3 Thriving marketplaces, platform and ecosystem 4 Unrivaled leadership in mobile commerce 5 Clear growth strategies 6 Proven management team and strong culture 7 Strong revenue growth, profitability and cash flow After Alibaba, where do we go from here? The future is brighter than ever Tech investment (both public and private) soaring, companies changing the world On track for 284 tech IPOs raising $92B in total since 2008 S&P 500 Information Technology Index continues to climb 70 658 56 48 45 44 402 $37 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014YTD $11 4 $1 $6 $6 2008 2009 2010 * 3/9/2009: 199 BABA $21 17 2011 FB $16B 2012 $22B $10 2013 2014 E Technology has become ingrained in our daily lives Over 300K listings Over 70MM active users Over 20MM songs available for free 100K new thermostats sold each month 100s of thousands new cameras sold annually 20K new drivers added per month 15MM devices shipped 450MM active users >100MM monthly active users Markets reflect excitement and appetite for tech in our daily lives 45 300K estimated owners Access to capital shifting to earlier in the lifecycle Market capitalization of selected tech leaders at IPO ($in billions) $167 $16.7 <50 tech IPOs a year More “large” IPOs Avg. age ~8 years old Hundreds of tech IPOs a year Most raising <$50MM Avg. age <5 years old $81 $11.5 $25 $9.0 $14 $8.0 $0.5 Alibaba Google Microsoft $0.5 $0.2 Cisco Capital coming from unconventional global sources 46 Outsized returns have shifted to the private market There have been 53 private placements for technology companies over $1B in value Companies are waiting longer to go public Without public scrutiny, companies can focus on growth at the expense of profitability Well-managed visionary companies will continue to drive innovation in our ecosystem Bigger and bolder companies as well as valuations Private Tech companies with valuations > $1BN Uber $41,200 Airbnb $10,000 Xiaomi $10,000 Dropbox $2,800 $800 $347 $10,000 Snapchat $507 $10,000 Palantir $150 $9,300 Theranos $900 $9,000 Square $91 $6,000 Pinterest $5,000 SpaceX $4,800 Cloudera $495 Funding rounds Dec. 2014 2009 6 Apr. 2014 2008 7 Aug. 2013 Jan. 2014 2010 2007 4 5 5 $1,100 2003 Bloom Energy $2,900 $600 Powa $2,700 Box $2,400 Houzz $2,300 Dianping.com $2,000 Trendy Group $2,000 Nutanix $2,000 Magic Leap $2,000 Intarcia $1,800 DocuSign $1,600 Jun. 2013 2009 6 Oct. 2013 2007 6 Aug. 2014 2007 6 Sep. 2013 2004 2 Jun. 2014 2001 8 Mar. 2014 2009 5 3 LaShou Group $1,100 $166 Mar. 2011 2009 $115 Dec. 2012 2002 4 Slack $1,100 $180 Oct. 2014 2009 4 $1,200 Mar. 2014 2008 7 Gilt Groupe $1,100 Apr. 2011 2007 3 Apr. 2013 1996 14 Sep. 2014 2010 7 Aug. 2014 2011 4 Aug. 2014 2010 4 Sep. 2014 2007 3 Jul. 2014 2008 5 Oct. 2014 1998 2 Aug. 2014 2007 7 Jul. 2014 2006 6 Jun. 2014 2011 4 Apr. 2014 2004 4 Mar. 2014 2009 5 Dec. 2014 $531 $320 $472 $1,100 $156 $543 $200 $312 $592 5 Latest valuation Source: Wall Street Journal. Total equity funding Honest Co. $1,000 JustFab $1,000 Credit Karma $1,000 AppDynamics $1,000 1999 10 2 Dec. 2011 2005 7 Dec. 2012 2005 7 Apr. 2014 2009 6 Razer $1,000 Sep. 2011 2001 6 Lookout $1,000 Nov. 2014 2007 2 Kabam $1,000 Jun. 2013 2005 10 Mogujie $1,000 2009 2003 4 5 Feb. 2012 1999 1 Aug. 2014 2009 5 Oct. 2014 2010 2 Mar. 2014 1995 10 InsideSales.c… $1,000 TangoMe $1,000 $221 $467 $600 $122 $300 $193 $157 $50 $284 $245 $200 $139 $367 New Relic $1,000 $217 $1,000 $197 Apr. 2014 2008 6 Mar. 2014 2006 6 Qualtrics $1,000 $220 Sep. 2014 2002 2 Evernote $1,000 $242 May 2012 2005 4 Dec. 2012 2009 3 Apr. 2011 2003 5 2004 9 Apr. 2014 2004 7 CloudFlare $1,000 12 Xunlei $1,000 1999 $207 Eventbrite Mar. 2014 Sep. 2011 $424 $1,000 1995 $598 $207 $1,000 Jun. 2013 Feb. 2014 $569 2009 Good Tech. Delivery Hero Feb. 2014 Jun. 2014 $215 Jasper $1,400 $205 Deem $1,400 3 7 $200 $470 $302 $1,100 2 2005 8 6 $3,000 $496 2004 May 2014 2009 6 Pure Storage $200 Sept. 2013 2008 2006 $3,000 $231 Funding rounds May 2014 2006 Legendary Ent. $335 Year founded Oct. 2014 Apr. 2014 $3,000 $1,200 Proteus Dig. Nov. 2013 VANCL $1,200 Sogou Jun. 2014 $190 $1,200 AppNexus 7 $521 $3,300 $1,200 3 $155 $3,100 $1,200 Fab 2004 $4,000 Fanatics Automattic MongoDB $290 $1,300 2012 $3,800 Jawbone Sunrun Sep. 2013 Spotify $3,600 Latest valuation Nov. 2013 Lending Club Stripe 47 Year founded Actifio $800 $4,100 Latest valuation Latest valuation $72 $111 Total equity funding Transformational companies are bigger and bolder Mobile Cloud services Content Alt. energy Video Next gen. transport E-comm Elon Musk (SolarCity et al) Advertising Mobile Payments Email Cloud services Content Cloud services Maps IoT Retail Social Payments ~1997 Visionary companies create ecosystems and empower future entrepreneurs 48 Wholesale E-comm 2014 The future looks brighter than ever Elon Musk (SolarCity et al) Connectivity OS Project Loon Energy Transport Hyperloop Self‐driving cars Smart home Biometrics Electric airplanes Proprietary WiFi Set‐top boxes IoT sensors Rumored wearables projects Chromecast Smart TVs Smart lenses AI Robotics DEEPMIND 2014 These companies will continue to innovate how we interact with technology everyday 49 2024
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