Daily market overview - Oil Price Information Service

2014-12-03 07:27:09 EST
***Ethanol: DOE’s Hopeful Gasoline Number Helps Spots Rally
SPOT ETHANOL ASSESSMENT
LOW
HIGH
$2.1500-$2.3000
$2.3200-$2.3700
$2.3500-$2.4000
$2.2000-$2.2400
$2.2400-$2.2800
$2.3100-$2.3600
$2.3200-$2.3700
$2.4800-$2.5300
$2.5000-$2.5200
$2.1700-$2.2600
$2.3900-$2.4700
$2.5000-$2.5200
$2.5000-$2.5200
$2.4600-$2.5000
Chicago
Chicago Rule 11
Chicago Dead Prompt
New York
New York ITT
Gulf Coast
Dallas
Tampa
Phoenix
Nebraska
Pac NW (1-5 days)
S.F. (90.1 1-5 days)
L.A. (90.1 1-5 days)
L.A. (90.1 6-15 days)
MEAN
$2.2250
$2.3450
$2.3750
$2.2200
$2.2600
$2.3350
$2.3450
$2.5050
$2.5100
$2.2150
$2.4300
$2.5100
$2.5100
$2.4800
SPOT BRAZIL ETHANOL ASSESSMENT (FOB SANTOS)
LOW
HIGH
MEAN
Anhydrous ($/gal)
$2.11983 $2.19554 $2.15769
Anhydrous ($/cm)
$560.000 $580.000 $570.000
Anhydrous (R$/cm)
R$1433.82 R$1485.03 R$1459.43
Hydrous ($/gal)
$1.93056 $2.00627 $1.96841
Hydrous ($/cm)
$510.000 $530.000 $520.000
Hydrous (R$/cm)
R$1305.80 R$1357.01 R$1331.41
SPOT SME BIODIESEL ASSESSMENT
Chicago
Gulf Coast
New York
ETHANOL RIN CREDITS
2012
2013
2014
2015
LOW
HIGH
MEAN
$2.7000-$2.8300 $2.7650
$2.7500-$2.8500 $2.8000
$2.8500-$2.9500 $2.9000
LOW
HIGH
$0.5850-$0.5900
$0.5900-$0.6000
$0.5950-$0.6050
$0.5900-$0.6050
MEAN
$0.5875
$0.5950
$0.6000
$0.5975
CELLULOSIC RIN CREDITS (EPA Waiver Calculation)
LOW
HIGH
MEAN
2012
$0.7700-$0.7900 $0.7800
2013
$0.4150-$0.4250 $0.4200
BIODIESEL RIN CREDITS
2012
2013
2014
2015
LOW
HIGH
$0.5900-$0.6000
$0.5900-$0.6200
$0.6150-$0.6400
$0.6400-$0.6800
MEAN
$0.5950
$0.6050
$0.6275
$0.6600
ADVANCED BIOFUEL RIN CREDITS
2012
2013
2014
2015
LOW
HIGH
$0.5850-$0.6000
$0.5900-$0.6000
$0.6000-$0.6300
$0.6200-$0.6600
MEAN
$0.5925
$0.5950
$0.6150
$0.6400
CALIF. LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARD
Carbon Credit ($/MT)
Carbon Intensity Pts ($/CI)
$0.0039 $0.0038
Carbon CPG Diesel ($/gal)
LOW
HIGH
MEAN
$25.000-$27.000 $26.000
$0.0020-$0.0022 $0.0021 Carbon CPG Gasoline ($/gal)
$0.0036-
$0.0033-$0.0036 $0.0034
NATURAL GASOLINE (denaturant) SPOT SNAPSHOT Mt. Belvieu (any) $1.3375-$1.3400
Conway (any)
$1.3400-$1.3600
Ethanol markets already started to reveal some resilience off the lower values done yesterday
even before a midmorning DOE report appeared to give the market a significant bounce that
showed up both on paper and in the physical realm through the balance of the day.
Early trading in the Chicago market, before weekly DOE ethanol figures hit the street, had
some dead-prompt material getting done at $2.35/gal before later talks pushed to either side
of $2.40/gal for a time. A deal for material that could transfer late next week got done at
$2.15/gal after talks before the report ran $2.07 by $2.15/gal. Follow-up discussions with
bids at $2.15/gal and offers moving over $2.20/gal did not yield a confirmed deal.
By this afternoon, ethanol values for transfer this weekend and early next ran $2.28-$2.30/
gal and scuttlebutt indicating a trade in that range could not be confirmed at presstime.
Still, sources reported that bids for transfers at the start of next week did reach $2.28/
gal, with firmer numbers for anything that could be done before next week.
Any-December ethanol seemed less impacted by DOE numbers, with talks running a wide $1.75
by $1.85/gal through most of the day, but late word had $1.84/gal perhaps getting done this
afternoon. Any-January ethanol, by the afternoon, had some sources indicating 17-18cts
cheaper than any-December.
Rule 11 ethanol shipping this week basically held in the lower $2.30s by upper $2.30s range
at different times today, with sources noting some trading at $2.34/gal during that time.
Meantime, on the Chicago Board of Trade, ethanol futures almost doubled midday gains by
the time contracts settled. December futures did not garner much action, but it settled up
21cts at $2.26/gal after the 20 lots that traded today ran from $2.10 to $2.265/gal. January
ethanol traded 338 lots during the session, from $1.65 to $1.754/gal, settling up 8.3cts at
the session-high $1.755/gal. Altogether, about 515 ethanol futures lots traded during the
CBOT session.
Posted prices at Midwest racks appeared more mixed overnight, but some big discounts showed
in Illinois again. Average prices at Illinois racks had its second big overnight drop in a
row, off 14.78cts on average, running just over $2.588/gal. That took rack prices in the
state to a discount against racks in many other areas that often price much cheaper than
Illinois. Iowa racks, for example, averaged nearly $2.724/gal today and actually added
1.25cts overnight.
Nebraska ethanol racks, posting nearly $2.607/gal on average, eased just 74 points since
yesterday.
Several FOB railcar deals shipping this week did show up today, including both Union Pacificshipped cars and cheaper Burlington Northern railcars, with a confirmed trading range that
spanned $2.17-$2.26/gal.
Elsewhere, New York Harbor remained a very thin market again, but early talk of a barge
deal at $2.20/gal came amid later reports of bids running $2.19/gal on December, though
afternoon reports pushed things to the middle $2.20s without a deal getting done. January
barges reportedly ran down to 33cts less than those for December, according to some roll
discussions.
West Coast markets also remained thin, though some railcars shipping this week to the
California Bay area did get done at $2.50/gal, where early bids were reported before prices
edged up. Railcars going this week to Arizona had early talks showing $2.47 by $2.52/gal
before sources reported $2.50 and $2.52/gal getting done.
Corn markets did not appear to have much juice to swing ethanol markets today, with CBOT
futures off a mere penny or two at midday and eventually settling up no more than a penny at
session’s end. December corn at $3.6875/bu regained some ground to end up a penny, while the
more active March contract at $3.82/bu added just 75 points at the settle.
Instead, most attention turned to DOE figures that seemed to have a little something for
everyone, showing ethanol supply bouncing back a bit even as production slipped off the
record-high output rate plants managed the previous week.
At 17.289 million bbl on hand nationwide for the week ending Nov. 28, DOE reported ethanol
stocks rebounded most of the way back from the draw reported the previous week, adding
217,000 bbl, or up 1.3%, from a month-long supply low. Stocks also climbed 4.3% against sametime-last-year inventory.
Regionally, a large build in Midwest ethanol stocks that accounted for 199,000 bbl of
additional supply in the last week is the key driver behind the nationwide supply build.
However, DOE also reported plants collectively cut production 20,000 b/d week- to-week, down
2% from the week before to average 962,000 b/d. Admittedly, that drop came off the highest
production rate ever recorded by DOE and still left output some 5.4% ahead of the same week
last year.
There were no imports of ethanol for the week, according to DOE, but blending indications
made an anemic turn, as blender net inputs dropped 2.1% from a week ago, to 856,000 b/d, or
about 11% under the week’s production rate.
It may well have been gasoline demand, and its implications for more ethanol demand, that
tipped the balance to a bullish report this morning. DOE reported implied gasoline demand
jumped to 9.425 million b/d -- up 1.9% for the week to take it up 4.7% in the last three
weeks and run 6.2% ahead of the same week last year.
Looking at petroleum markets, WTI futures closed the NYMEX pit session slightly higher but
products contracts could not hold the early gains they mounted in the wake of the DOE report
this morning.
January RBOB futures closed near its lows of the Merc session but losses ran under a penny
and ultimately settled down 46 points, at $1.807/gal. The February contract settled at
$1.8157/gal for a loss of 57 points.
DOE data revealed crude inventories declined last week. The Merc’s WTI contract held on to
earlier gains after a choppy session, with January settling at $67.38/bbl, up 50cts, after
trading as high as $68.23. Front- month Brent crude finished under $70, as the contract down
around $1 at the time, running $69.50/bbl.
Cash gasoline trading in the Gulf Coast had CBOB spots running 24.5cts under the Merc
benchmark, indicating outright prices making very little day-to-day change, at $1.5620/gal.
Chicago CBOB trading around a 15.5cts discount to Merc values and outright spots running
$1.6520/gal, or down 1.46cts from yesterday.
--Spencer Kelly, [email protected]
Copyright, Oil Price Information Service

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