The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2014 Free download at www.WorldNuclearReport.org Mycle Schneider International Consultant on Energy and Nuclear Policy, Paris, France Convening Lead Author of the World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR) Member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM) Coordinator of the Seoul International Energy Advisory Council (SIEAC) Internationale Partnerschaftskonferenz, Krzyżowa, Poland, 23-26 October 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the World 40 in Units, from 1954 to 1 July 2014 30 Reactor Startup Reactor Shutdown 20 2014 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1965 1960 0 1954 10 -10 -20 © Mycle Schneider Consulting -30 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Nuclear Power Reactors “in Operation” — Really? Source: Screenshot IAEA-website 25 October 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Japan’s Nuclear Fleet “Operational”? Source: Screenshot IAEA-website 25 October 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Source: JAIF, 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 The WNISR2014 Establishes New Reactor Status Category: Long-Term Outage or LTO “A nuclear power reactor is considered in Long-Term Outage (LTO) if it has not generated any power in the entire previous calendar year and in the first semester of the current calendar year of the WNISR.” 45 reactors woldwide in LTO - 43 in Japan, shut down between 1995 and 2012 - 1 in South Korea, Wolsong-1, shut down since 2012 - 1 in India, Rajasthan-1, shut down since 2004 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 350 300 250 200 in GWe, from 1954 to 1 July 2014 © Mycle Schneider Consulting 400 Number of Reactors Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the World GWe 438 reactors 332,5 GWe 388 reactors 450 312 GWe 420 reactors 400 350 300 250 200 Reactors in operation! 150 500 Operable capacity! 150 100 100 50 2014 2010 2002 2000 1989 1990 1980 1970 1960 1954 0 50 0 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 in GWe, from 1956 to 1 July 2014 80 © Mycle Schneider Consulting 160 120 Number of Reactors 200 Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the EU28 GWe 123 GWe 177 reactors 121.7 GW 131 reactors 180 160 140 Reactors in Operation 120 Operable Capacity 100 80 60 40 40 2014 2010 1999 2000 1990 1988 1980 1970 1960 0 1956 20 0 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 % 15% Nuclear Electricity Production in the World 1990-2013 © Mycle Schneider Consulting 20% TWh 4000 in TWh (net) and share of electricity production (gross) 17.5% max 17.6% 3500 max 2,660 TWh 2,359 TWh 3000 2500 2000 10% 10.8% 1500 1000 5% 2013 2010 2005 2000 1995 0% 1990 500 0 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Belgium Slovakia Hungary Ukraine Switzerland Czech Rep, Slovenia Finland Bulgaria Armenia South Korea Romania (in %) Spain USA Taiwan UK Russia Canada Germany South Africa Mexico Pakistan Maximum! 2013! 2012! India Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC 2014 Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Argentina Netherlands Brazil China Japan Iran © Mycle Schneider Consulting Nuclear Share in Electricity Production in 2013 Sweden %! 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Mycle Schneider Consulting France Age of 388 Reactors in Operation in the World 35 © Mycle Schneider Consulting as of 1 July 2014 30! 30 Number of Reactors 25 21! 20 19! 18! 17! Mean Age 28,5 Years 15 17! 14! 13! 12! 10! 10! 10 9! 9! 9! 9! 7! 6! 5! 5 4! 3! 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Average Annual Construction Times in the World 1954-2014 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 (by grid connection date) © Mycle Schneider Consulting Years 8 6 4 2 Size proportional to number of reactors! 0 -2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Age of the 153 Shut-down Reactors in the World 14 © Mycle Schneider Consulting as of 1 July 2014 12! 12 10! Number of Reactors 10 Mean Age 24 Years 8 7! 6! 6! 6 5! 5! 5! 4! 4! 4! 4 3! 3! 2! 2 1! 1! 1! 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Years 45 40 35 30 25 Average Age of Shutdown Reactors 1963-2014 (by shutdown year) © Mycle Schneider Consulting 50 20 15 10 Size proportional to number of reactors! 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 900 TWh! (in TWh) Nuclear Electricity Production by Country in 2013 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Mycle Schneider Consulting USA France Russia South Korea China Canada Germany Ukraine UK Sweden Spain Belgium Taiwan India Czech Rep, Switzerland Finland Slovakia Hungary Japan Brazil South Africa Mexico Maximum! Argentina 2013! Romania 2012! Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2013 Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Bulgaria Slovenia Pakistan Iran Netherlands Armenia © Mycle Schneider Consulting Number of Nuclear Reactors Listed as "Under Construction" by year, 1954 - 1 July 2014 250 234 225 48 200 Number of Reactors 175 150 Cancelled or Suspended Projects! 125 Completed and Ongoing Projects! 100 186 72 5 75 50 67 25 0 1954 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Reactors « Under Construction » in the World (1 October 2014) China Russia India Units MWe (net) Construction Start Grid Connection 27 9 6 26,756 7,273 3,907 2008-2013 1983-2019 2002-2011 2014-2018 2014-2019 2014-2016 South Korea USA UAE 5 5 3 6,320 5,633 4,035 2008-2013 1972-2013 2012-2014 2014-2018 2015-2019 2017-2018 Belarus Pakistan Slovakia Ukraine 2 2 2 2 2,218 630 880 1,900 2013-2014 2011 1985 1986-1987 2019-2020 2016-2017 2014-2015 2015-2016 Argentina Brazil 1 1 25 1,245 2014 2010 2018 2016 Finland France 1 1 1,600 1,600 2005 2007 2018 2016 67 65,022 1972-2014 2014-2020 Total Mycle Schneider Consulting Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2014 Country Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Commercial Costs Operating Costs Fix Costs Capital Costs Mycle Schneider Consulting Source: Rapport de la Commission de régulation de l’énergie, 4 June 2013 French Electricity Generating and Marketing Costs 2007-2012: +4.5%/a Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 French Nuclear Reactor Investments New Investment Initial Investment/ First Years of Operation Mycle Schneider Consulting Maintenance/Upgrading Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Share Value of a Selection of European Power and Utility Companies (by company) 1,80 1,60 1,40 1,20 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 0,00 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 SSE E.ON Jan-07 EDF CEZ Jan-08 RWE ENEL Jan-09 Jan-10 GDF Suez Source: Yahoo Finance, June 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Nasdaq.com on 28 July 2014… Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Traditional Utilities Under Pressure—UBS: “Time to Join the Revolution” The 20 largest European energy utilities lost over half of the €1 trillion stock market value since 2008, some a lot more (EDF, E.ON over 70%). Europe’s electricity providers face an existential threat. The Economist, London, October 2013 Utility business models are threatened by the dramatic growth in the deployment of technologies that generate electricity onsite or at the distribution grid level. Navigant Research, Boulder, USA, August 2014 A new technological paradigm in electricity and the end of the reign of the large-scale utilities. Institute for Public Policy Research, London, September 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 300 250 200 150 © Mycle Schneider Consulting $ billion 350 Global Investment Decisions in New Renewables and Nuclear Power 2004-2013 (in $ billion) 100 50 0 2004 2005 2006 Solar 2007 2008 Wind 2009 2010 Other Renewables 2011 2012 2013 Nuclear Source: UNEP 2014 and WNISR original research Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 700 600 Renewables! 500 Nuclear Power! 400 © Mycle Schneider Consulting Global Investment Decision in Renewable Energy and Nuclear 2004-2013 (in $ billion) $ billion 300 200 100 0 US Brazil America (excluding US and Brazil) Europe Middle East and Africa China India Asia (Excluding China and India) Sources: UNEP 2014 and WNISR original research Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Top 10 Renewable Energy Investment 2011-2013 (in billion US$) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2013-14 Sources: BNEF 2013; WNISR 2013 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 300 250 200 150 © Mycle Schneider Consulting GWe 350 Wind, Solar and Nuclear Grid Connections in the World 2000–2013 (cumulated, in GWe) 301 266 221 Wind 135 Nuclear Solar 103 98 100 66 57 50 30 17 13 22 17 6 0 -19 -23 -19 -50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: IAEA-PRIS, EPIA, GWEC 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 TWh/y 800 Variations in Global Electricity Production Compared to Reference-Year 1997 from Nuclear, Wind and Solar Photovoltaics (in TWh/y) 700 616 600 510 500 Wind 415 Nuclear 400 Solar 384 313 303 300 331 257 200 266 121 100 124 51 93 0 1 -100 4 18 114 30 © Mycle Schneider Consulting 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sources: BP, IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Global In 2013, Spain generated more power from wind than from any other source, outpacing nuclear for the first time. It is also the first time that wind has become the largest electricity generating source over an entire year in any country. Spain has thus joined the list of nuclear countries that produce more electricity from new renewables—excluding large hydro-power—than from nuclear power that includes Brazil, China, Germany, India and Japan. Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Mtoe 500 400 300 © Mycle Schneider Consulting 600 EU28 Domestic Energy Production 2001-2012 (in Mtoe) Fossil Fuels (All Domestic) Renewables Solid Fuels Natural Gas 200 Petroleum Products 100 Uranium (All Origins) Uranium (Domestic) 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Sources: Eurostat, Euratom Supply Agency, BEE/Raffaele Piria, 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Source: EWEA 2013 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 GWe Startup and Shutdown of Electricity Generating Capacity in the EU 2013 by Energy Source in GWe 15 11,2 11,0 7,5 5 3,3 1,9 0,2 -0,3 0,2 -0,8 -2,8 -7,7 -10,1 © Mycle Schneider Consulting Source: EWEA 2014 -5 -15 Wind Mycle Schneider Consulting PV Gas Other Renewables Coal Fuel Oil Nuclear Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 100 80 60 © Mycle Schneider Consulting GWe Installed Nuclear, Wind and Solar Capacity in China 2000-2013 (in GWe) 91 75 63 Wind Solar Nuclear 42 40 26 18 20 12 2 5 7 2002 Mycle Schneider Consulting 2004 8 3 1 0 2000 6 10 2006 6 0,1 2008 0,3 0,8 2010 12 3,3 13 16 6,8 2012 Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 TWh/y 140 120 100 80 Annual Electricity Production by Nuclear, Wind and Solar PV in China 2000-2013 (in TWh/y) © Mycle Schneider Consulting 160 132 Nuclear Wind Solar PV 111 86 74 96 97 70 55 60 45 43 40 28 20 17 12! 4 1 0! 1! 3! 2010 2011 6! - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 2013 Source: BP 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Markets at Solar Photovoltaics Grid Parity… More to Come Source: Deutsche Bank, « 2014 Outlook—Let the Second Gold Rush Begin », 6 January 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 “Austin’s Super Cheap Solar Agreement (5¢/kWh) Goes To Recurrent Energy” An unprecedentedly low price for a large solar project with 150 MW, 20-year Power Purchase Agreement. Austin Energy's estimates natural gas at 7 cents, coal at 10 cents and nuclear at 13 cents. Source: Greentechsolar, 21 May 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Solar Photovoltaics in the U.S. By 2017, more than half of the States could have rooftop solar that is as cheap as local electricity prices. Source: UCS, http://www.ucsusa.org/, 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 UBS: “Daily supply profile can be (almost) perfectly matched” Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 UBS: “Solar + battery + EV already pays off, but economics to further improve dramatically” Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Annual Balance of EV + Solar + Battery = €1,000 Savings Per Year Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 New Players: Example Seoul Target Phase 1: Saving or substituting 2 million TOE, achieved in 26 months (by June 2014, 6 months early) through: - Energy savings: 44.5% - Energy efficiency: 42.5% - RE production: 13.0% Key: Exceptional level of public involvement. Target Phase 2: Saving or substituting +4 million TOE by 2020, reduce CO2e emissions by 20.5% or 10 million tons (compared to 2011). Targets include: - 100% LED equipment public bldgs. - RE increase from 2—5%. - Boost electricity self-reliance from 4—20%. Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 “Large-scale power generation, however, will be the dinosaur of the future energy system: Too big, too inflexible, not even relevant for backup power in the long run.” UBS (largest Swiss bank) “Will solar, batteries and electric cars re-shape the electricity system?” 20 August 2014 Thank You! Contact: [email protected] Phone: +33-1-69 83 23 79 www.WorldNuclearReport.org - online now! Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 About the Author Mycle Schneider works as independent international consultant on energy and nuclear policy. He is the initiator and Convening Lead Author of the World Nuclear Industry Status Reports and the Coordinator of the Seoul International Energy Advisory Council (SIEAC). He is a member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), based at Princeton University, USA. In 2010-2011, he acted as Lead Consultant for the Asia Clean Energy Policy Exchange, implemented by IRG, funded by USAID, with the focus of developing a policy framework to boost energy efficiency and renewable energies. Between 2004 and 2009 he has been in charge of the Environment and Energy Strategies Lecture of the International Master of Science for Project Management for Environmental and Energy Engineering at the Ecole des Mines in Nantes, France. From 2000 to 2010 he was an occasional advisor to the German Environment Ministry. 1998-2003 he was an advisor to the French Environment Minister’s Office and to the Belgian Minister for Energy and Sustainable Development. Mycle Schneider has given evidence or held briefings at national Parliaments in 14 countries and at the European Parliament. He has advised Members of the European Parliament from four different groups over the past 26 years. He has given lectures or had teaching appointments at 20 universities and engineering schools in 10 countries. Mycle Schneider has provided information and consulting services to a large variety of clients including international institutions and organizations, think tanks and NGOs. In 1997 he was honoured with the Right Livelihood Award (“Alternative Nobel Prize”). Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Annexes Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Temperature Sensitivity of Power Systems in Europe (MW/°C) Source: RTE, “La vague de froid de février 2012”, Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Neighbors Save French Electricity Grid, 9 February 2012 (in MW) Source: RTE, “La vague de froid de février 2012”, April 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014 Source: Markus Steigenberger, Prague, 14 May 2013 Mycle Schneider Consulting Krzyżowa, Poland, 25 October 2014
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