The Five Technology Forces
Driving the Future
What Does it Mean For Your Supply Chain?
May 2014
Jeff Wacker
Principal Futurist
JLWFutures
Copyright JLWFutures 2014
KONDRATIEFF CYCLES
Euphoria
MATURITY
Anxiety
Professor Nickolai
Kondratieff
(1892-1938)
Technology Diffusion
Thrill
SYNERGY
Denial
Optimism
Fear
FRENZY
Excitement
Optimism
Desperation
Panic
Relief
ERUPTION
Hope
Despondency
Big Bang
2
Crash
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Recovery and Transition
Time
KONDRATIEFF CYCLES
CYCLE 1: INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 1771-1829
1771 INDUSTRIAL
REVOLUTION
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CANAL
PANIC 1797
(BRITAIN)
• Diffusion of manufacturing with water power
• Full network of waterways (canals, rivers, oceans)
• Development of public companies
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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES
CYCLE 2: STEAM AND RAILWAYS 1829-1875
1829 STEAM & RAILWAYS
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RAILWAY
PANIC 1847
(BRITAIN)
• Economies of scale
• Joint stock companies
• Repeal of tariff laws/free trade
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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES
CYCLE 3: STEEL, ELECTRICITY & HEAVY ENGINEERING 1875-1908
1875 STEEL, ELECTRICITY
& HEAVY ENGINEERING
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GLOBAL
COLLAPSES
OF THE 1890’S
(ARGENTINA,
AUSTRALIA, U.S.)
• Transcontinental rail, steamships and telegraph
• Gold standard, global finance
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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES
CYCLE 4: AUTOMOBILES, OIL & MASS PRODUCTION 1908-1966
1908 AUTOMOBILES, OIL
& MASS PRODUCTION
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GREAT CRASH
OF 1929
(U.S.)
• Interstate/international highways and airways
• Welfare state, Bretton Woods, IMF, World Bank
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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES
CYCLE 5: INFORMATION & TELECOMMUNICATIONS 1966~2016
1966 INFORMATION &
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
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NASDAQ
CRASH 2000 &
GLOBAL COLLAPSES
(ASIA, ARGENTINA,
U.S.)
• Global digital telecommunications network
• Institutional framework, facilitating globalization
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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES
CYCLE 6: INFOTECH2, NANOTECH, BIOTECH, ROBOTECH, ENERTECH
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BIOTECHNOLOGY
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BIOTECHNOLOGY
Unintended Consequences
Moral ethics
New bioWeapons
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NANO TECHNOLOGY
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NANO TECHNOLOGY
Potential toxicity
Binary nanoWeapons
Raw materials Availability
Grey Goo
Glowing Report
Smart BombMedicine Cabinet
Seek and Destroy
Tiny Turbine
Power Pack
Cell Control
molecular
manufacturing
Alien Invasion
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ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
Macro
Micro
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ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
Unrestricted growth
New source for weapons
Moderate jobs outlook
Thermopower
waves
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Traveling Wave
Nuclear Power
Multiferroic Alloy
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ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGY
Immobots
Mobots
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ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGY
Role of humans?
New battlefields
Negative jobs outlook
Expert
Systems
Modeling &
Simulation
mristors &
euromorphic
Computing
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ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGY
Desensitivity to War
xRobot
“Terminator”
Negative Jobs Outlook
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 2
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 2
Quantum
Computing
Memristors &
Neuromorphic Computing
2D to 3D Architectures
Photonic Computing
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 2
Privacy!
TMI
Dependence
Loss of Control
Cyber-Warfare
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5 FORCES ON SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
• IMPROVED
INFORMATION
GENERATED
THROUGH
SENSORS
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5 FORCES ON SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
• SENSORS
• DERIVED
KNOWLEDGE FROM
INTERNET-OFTHINGS CONTEXT
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5 FORCES ON SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
• SENSORS
• IOT
• IMPROVED WISDOM
THROUGH
ADVANCED
ANALYTICS
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5 FORCES ON SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
•
•
•
•
SENSORS
IOT
ANALYTICS
IMPROVED
PREDICTABILITY
THROUGH
DEMAND/INTENT
INPUT
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5 FORCES ON SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
•
•
•
•
•
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SENSORS
IOT
ANALYTICS
PREDICTABILITY
REDUCED
LOGISTICS
THROUGH POINTOF-NEED
MANUFACTURING
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5 FORCES ON SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
•
•
•
•
•
•
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SENSORS
IOT
ANALYTICS
PREDICTABILITY
P-O-N MFG
REDUCED COSTS,
LOSS, TIME,
ERRORS THROUGH
ROBOTICS &
AUTOMATION
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Copyright JLWFutures 2014
5 FORCES ON SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
INCREASED RISKS FROM:
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•
INFORMATION OVERLOAD
•
SECURITY CONCERNS
•
ENVIRONMENTAL DISRUPTIONS
•
GLOBALIZATION
•
GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS
•
SUSTAINABILITY
•
RESOURCE SHORTAGES
•
ENERGY COSTS
•
REGULATIONS
•
RAPID SOCIAL SHIFTS
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Copyright JLWFutures 2014
Recommended Reading on these topics
Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think*
- Peter Diamandis & Steven Kotler
Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in Nanotechnology will Change Civilization
- K. Eric Drexler
Singularity Rising: Surviving and Thriving in a Smarter, Richer and More
Dangerous World
- James D. Miller
Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation,
Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy
- Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee
The Age of Context: Mobile, Sensors, Data and the Future of Privacy
- Robert Scoble & Shel Israel
Breakout: Pioneers of the Future, Prison Guards of the Past, and the Epic Battle
That Will Decide America’s Fate
- Newt Gingrich
* Read this one if you’re only going to read one - JLW
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Copyright JLWFutures 2014
Q&A
[email protected]
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