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Insights into the German Storage Market
July 10th 2014
Daniela Schreiber| Partner| IBESA
Agenda
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Introduction IBESA
Market development
Profitability of PV storage systems
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The role of the installers
The attitude of the end customers
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The International Battery and Energy Storage
Alliance (IBESA)
IBESA´s common vision is:
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”To promote a path of cooperation and mutual
support in achieving proactive solutions between all
sectors within the Photovoltaic (PV) Power
Generation, Battery Storage and the Smart Grid
Technology value chain.“
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Who can be a Member of IBESA
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Market Development
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Forecast Market Development
A strong market growth is expected until 2020. Until then the share of retrofit storage systems
becomes the most important market driver.
Forecast Market Development
120.000
t
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Neue PV-Installationen mit Speicher
Speicheranteil
Storage share an
of neuen
new PVPV-Installationen
installations
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Anteil
vonshare
Speichern
bei Nachrüstungen
Storage
when retrofitting
80.000
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
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60.000
40.000
20.000
0
2011
2012
2013
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Anteil an
neuen bzw.
altenand
PV-Anlagen
Percentage
portion
of new
old PV systems
New PV installations with storage
Nachrüsten
PV-Anlagen
mitwith
Speicher
Retrofittingalter
old PV
installations
storage
100.000
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EuPD Research
Source: Quelle:
EuPD Research
2014
Prognose der Marktentwicklung
Anzahl
der storage
Speichersysteme
Number
of the
systems
•
0%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
6
Development of the PV Storage Subsidy
•
The subsidies for PV storage systems are increasing constantly. However there is still 60
percent of the total subsidy budget available.
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Source: KfW, BSW 2014
Development of subsidized residential PV-Storage batteries in Germany
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6,000
13%
5,000
87%
Total subsidy budget:
25 Mio. €
Used subsidy budget:
3.3 Mio. €
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Claimed subsidies
Still unclaimed subsidies
4,000
3,000
2,000
18.7 Mio €
1,000
Total subsidy budget:
25 Mio. €
Used subsidy budget:
8.8 Mio. €
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35%
65%
Claimed subsidies
Still unclaimed subsidies
40%
60%
90 Mio €
Claimed subsidies
80 Mio €
Still unclaimed subsidies
until August 2013
70 Mio €
66.0 Mio €
60 Mio €
50 Mio €
45.3 Mio €
40 Mio €
4,000
2,730
30 Mio €
20 Mio €
10 Mio €
1,100
0
100 Mio €
Total subsidy budget:
25 Mio. €
Used subsidy budget:
10 Mio. €
0 Mio €
until end of December 2013
Number of subsidized Systems
until Mid of May 2014
Total credit sum (kfW)
7
Market potential for residential storage batteries
In European comparison Germany is the most promising storage market. Yet Belgium and Italy
are showing high potential as well.
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Source: EuPD Research 2014
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Market potential for residential storage batteries
0.35
Residential electricity price EUR/kWh
•
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0.30
Germany
0.25
0.20
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0.10
0.05
0.00
0.35
Belgium
UK
0.15
0.30
0.25
Italy
France
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
-0.05
-0.10
FiT in EUR/kWh
Bubble size displays the installed PV capacity at the end of 2013 in segment < 10 kWp
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Profitability of PV Storage Systems
The example of the German incentive scheme for battery systems
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Profitability of PV Storage Systems
Assumptions
Installation date
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15.06.2014
System size
Yield
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6.6 kWp
905 kWh/KWp
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Equity
100%
Battery size (nominal)
DOD
Life time
5 kWh
80%
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Price PV system
Price storage system (Lithium Ion)
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Annual electricity consumption
Electricity price (private households)
1,534 €/ kW
2,273 €/ kWh
4,500 kWh
27.0 €/ kWh
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Profitability of PV Storage Systems
NPV PV system and battery prices (Lithium Ion)
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Source:
EuPD
Research
Source:
EuPD
Research2014
2014
14000
NPV PV System Depending on Battery System Prices
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Net present value (NPV)
12000
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10000
Net Present Value
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
-2000
-4000
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Storage system price
NPV PV System incl. Storage
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Profitability of PV Storage Systems
NPV PV system and battery prices (Lithium Ion)
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Source: EuPD Research 2014
14000
NPV PV System Depending on Battery System Prices
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12000
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10000
Net Present Value
8000
Today
6000
4000
2000
0
-2000
-4000
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Storage pays off
Storage system price
NPV PV System incl. Storage
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Profitability of PV Storage Systems
NPV PV system and battery prices (Lithium Ion)
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Source: EuPD Research 2014
14000
NPV PV System Depending on Battery System Prices
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12000
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10000
Net Present Value
8000
Today
6000
4000
2000
0
-2000
-4000
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Storage is the better choice
Storage pays off
Storage system price
NPV PV System incl. Storage
(FiT June 2014: 13.01 €Cent/ kWh)
NPV only PV
(FiT June 2014: 13.01 €Cent/ kWh)
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Profitability of PV Storage Systems
NPV PV system and battery prices – Impact of support scheme (Lithium Ion)
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Source: EuPD Research 2014
14000
NPV PV System Depending on Battery System Prices
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12000
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10000
Storage support scheme
Net Present Value
8000
Today
6000
4000
2000
0
-2000
-4000
Storage support scheme
 660 €/ kWh battery
capacity
 max. 3,000 €/ system
 Budget 25 Mio. €
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Storage is the better choice
Storage pays off
Storage system price
NPV PV System incl. Storage
(FiT 13.01 €Cent/ kWh)
NPV only PV
(FiT 13.01 €Cent/ kWh)
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The role of the installers
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Installer´s Point of View
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A vast majority of installers already offer PV storage solutions or plans to offer them in 2014.
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Source:
EuPD
Research
Source:
EuPD
Research2013
2014
Do you offer storage solutions? | Size | Germany
Total
10%
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Low volume Installer
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2%
10%
17%
19%
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71%
3%
High volume Installer
9%
12%
68%
n = 186
79%
n = 66
We offer battery systems
Currently we do not offer battery systems but we plan to do so in 2014
We do not offer battery systems and we do not plan to do so in 2014
Don't know/no response
n = 252
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Importance of Features
•
Sales and profitability are given. For installers offering storage systems the price is not the key
buying factor. Technical reliability secured by good warranty conditions and service are
crucial.
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Source:
EuPD
Research
2013
Source:
EuPD
Research 2014
Storage solutions | Importance of features | Germany
Technological maturity
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70%
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Warranty conditions
56%
Service
53%
Easy of installation
43%
Low price
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32%
Brand
20%
Weight
15%
0%
10%
ø
1.3
24%
32%
1.5
37%
1.5
46%
1.6
41%
2.0
2.3
37%
27%
20%
1 = Very important
30%
2.7
40%
50%
2
3
60%
4
70%
80%
90%
100%
5 = Not important at all
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The attitude of the end customers
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Customer´s Point of View
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Customers normally don’t ask for a quotation, therefore installers should offer quotations.
Total
Are you aware of
storage solutions?
Did you consider
to invest in a
battery system?
Did you ask
for/receive a
quotation for a
storage system?
Did you install a
storage system?
New customers
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94%
55%
2011 – 2012
Before 2011
98%
95%
89%
66%
58%
42%
12%
22%
11%
7%
3%
7%
3%
2%
100%
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Major Obstacles
•
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As expected: Economic reasons are the major obstacle for the end customers.
In addition potential customers don‘t have trust in technical maturity.
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Quelle: EuPD Research 2013
Kunden do
haben
sich
kein
Customer
not take
the
Angebot eingeholt,
da:
installation
into consideration,
(Mittelwerte)
because…*
Customers
do not take
the
Kunden ziehen
Speicher
installation
into consideration,
nicht in Erwägung,
da:
because…*
(Mittelwerte)
3,7
No positive return (n = 804)
3,5
Missing technical maturity (n = 796)
3,3
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High feed in tariffs (n =756)
No need (n = 757)
No space (n = 727)
1,5
Installer advised against (n = 621)
1,5
ESS not available (n = 598)
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Price too high (n = 793)
2,5
2,2
3,3
3,2
2,8
3,1
1,5
1,8
1,3
1,3
1,3
1,2
1,2
3,7
3,7
1,6
1,2
1 = Completely
trifft überhaupt
unimportant
nicht zu
Customer
not take
the
Kunden do
haben
keinen
installation
into consideration,
Speicher installiert,
da:
because…*
(Mittelwerte)
1,8
1,2
4 = Highly
trifft absoult
important
zu
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Conclusion

The German market is an attractive market for PV storage!

PV storage systems are already economically!

Many of the installers already offer PV storage systems!

Rising demand for PV storage systems by the end customers!
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International Battery & Energy Storage Alliance
EUROPE
USA
Adenauerallee 134
D-53113 Bonn
Phone +49(0)228-97143-0
Fax +49(0)228-97143-11
[email protected]
P.O. Box 771507
Orlando, Florida 32877
Phone +1 407 856 9100
Fax +1 407 856 9500
[email protected]
ASIA
USA West
Rm 603, APEC Plaza
49 Hoi Yuen Rd.
Kwun Tong, HK
Phone +852-26232317
[email protected]
870 Market Street, Suite
1055
San Francisco, CA
[email protected]
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www.ibesalliance.org
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