Presentation - Old Dominion University

Old Dominion University
2014 Regional Economic Forecast
February 5, 2014
Professor Vinod Agarwal
www.odu.edu/forecasting
1
Presentation outline
A.
Performance of local economy in 2013
B.
Jobs, Employment, and Unemployment Rate
C.
Taxable Sales and Hotel Revenue
D.
Port and Cargo
E.
Residential Market in Hampton Roads
F.
Forecast for 2014
2
Caps on Discretionary Defense Spending
FY 2012 through FY 2021
700
650
Billions of dollars
600
550
500
450
Discretionary Defense spending cap increases
by about $19 Billion in FY 2014 compared to FY
2013 but is about $32 Billion below the levels
imposed under BCA.
400
350
300
FY12
FY13
FY14
BCA 2011
FY15
FY16
FY17
Sequestration
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
BBA 2013
Source: BCA2011,Budget Requests for FY14, CBO Sequestration Update Report and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
3
Impact of Caps on DOD Spending during FY 2013
• Delays in Congressional action on Sequestration resulted in
lowering caps on discretionary spending to $42.5 billion from
the original $55 billion for FY 2013.
• DOD was also able to use unobligated funds to reduce the
impact of sequestration.
• Congress provided DOD flexibility in reducing spending
according to its priorities, as a result navy was least affected.
• Above actions resulted in an estimated $34 billion reduction in
DOD spending.
4
Impact of Caps on DOD Spending during FY 2014
• The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2013 provides $22.5 billion in
sequestration relief in FY 2014. As a result Defense Discretionary
Spending Cap increases from $498.1 billion to $521.4.
• The Act also provides $85 Billion to DOD for its Overseas
Contingency Operations. These funds, however, include $6 billion in
procurement funds that are spread across the DOD.
• The Act also provides a one percent pay increase to Federal Civilian
workers for the first time in four years.
• These actions will result in an increase in overall spending by DOD in
FY 2014.
5
Old Dominion University 2013 Hampton Roads Scorecard
Actual Change
2013
Real GRP
(2005=100)
+1.73%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project
Predicted
Change 2013
+1.68%
6
Rate of Growth of GDP (U.S.) and GRP (Hampton Roads)
2000- 2013
6
5
4
Growth Rate
3
1.92
2
1
1.73
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
Percent change real GDP
Percent change real GRP
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Data on GDP incorporates
latest BEA revisions on July 31, 2013
2011
2012
2013e
Estimated Direct DOD Spending in Hampton Roads
2000 to 2013
25
Spending increased from 2000 to 2011 by 6.1%
on an annual basis; declined by 1.7 % in 2013.
Billions of $
20
19.50
19.59
19.25
15
10
10.19
5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e
Source: U.S. Department of Defense and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Includes Federal Civilian and Military Personnel and Procurement
8
Hampton Roads’ Gross Regional Product Attributable to DOD Spending
1984-2013
49.5%
48.8%
50%
46.6%
42.9%
40%
33.4%
30%
20%
10%
Source: U.S. Department of Defense , U.S. Department of Commerce, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project
2013f
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
0%
9
Average Department of Defense Procurement
Per Capita, 2008 - 2012
Top four States ranked by total Procurement Funds
received were CA, VA, TX, and MD respectively.
Avg procurement in 2012:
$1058 per person
Avg Procurement
Per Capita
$0 - 500
$500 - 1000
$1000 - 2000
$2000 - 3000
$3000 - 5000
Source: Federal Procurement Data System and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
Top Ten
VA
$4,945.72
CT
$3,087.98
AK
$2,771.11
MD
$2,120.83
MA
$1,840.76
AL
$1,834.29
AZ
$1,832.12
HI
$1,775.61
ME
$1,630.20
MO
$1,610.71
Bottom Ten
ID
$125.06
WV
$172.79
MT
$293.08
WY
$295.29
MN
$300.98
OR
$308.80
DE
$309.96
AR
$324.87
NC
$391.64
IA
$417.19
10
Old Dominion University 2013 Hampton Roads Scorecard
Actual Change Predicted
2013*
Change 2013
Civilian
Employment**
2.0%
+0.7%
Unemployment
Rate
5.9%
5.6%
Source: Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Figures for calendar year 2013 include predicted values for
December 2013. **Employment data for 2012 and 2013 will be revised by U.S. BLS in March 2014.
11
Civilian Job Growth Rate in the Commonwealth and Selected MSAs in Virginia
bu
rg
nc
h
Ly
R
oa
hm
on
R
ic
pt
o
H
am
no
ke
d
R
oa
n
VA
er
n
N
or
th
C
om
m
on
w
ea
lth
ds
2012 to 2013
4%
3%
2.0%
2%
1.0%
1.2%
1.3%
1.0%
1.3%
1%
0%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Employment data
for 2012 and 2013 will be revised by U.S. BLS in March 2014.
12
Annual Civilian Employment (JOBS)
Hampton Roads: 1999 to 2013
800
775
761.0
767.4
775.4
766.3
750.0
750
725
758.8
740.8
737.7
730.5733.9
735.2737.7
743.8
720.3
706.6
700
675
20
13
20
12
20
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
19
99
650
Year
Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Employment data
for 2012 and 2013 will be revised by U.S. BLS in March 2014.
13
Job Gains and Loses (In Thousands)
Hampton Roads: 2012 to 2013
Losers (jobs)
Gainers (jobs)
Health Care and Social Assitance
3.8
Construction
3.7
Finance
2.7
Manufacturing
1.9
Leisure and Hospitality
1.8
Professional and Business Services
1.4
Local Government
0.6
Transportation and Warehousing
Retail and Wholesale Trade
-0.7
-0.3
-0.2
-1.0
0.1
Federal and State Government
Information
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Employment data
for 2012 and 2013 will be revised by U.S. BLS in March 2014.
5.0
14
Hampton Roads and U.S. Annual Unemployment Rate
2000 to 2013
Hampton
Roads
Hampton Roads
U.S.
U.S.
12.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
8.0
8.0
6.0
6.0
9.6
7.5
8.9
7.0 7.4
5.9
4.0
4.0
2.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
Source: US Department of Labor and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted
15
Old Dominion University 2013 Hampton Roads Scorecard
Actual Change
2013*
Predicted Change
2013
Taxable Sales
+2.9%
+3.7%
Hotel Revenue
-1.3%
+3.3%
Source: Virginia Department of Taxation, Smith Travel Research and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
*Figures for calendar year 2013 include predicted values for December 2013.
16
Rate of Growth of Taxable Sales
Hampton Roads: 1996 to 2013
Despite a positive growth in last three years,
total sales in 2013 are still about $117M below
their peak of $20.56B in 2007
10%
8%
Percent
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
Source: Virginia Department of taxation and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
2013e
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
-6%
17
Hotel Revenue in Hampton Roads
1996-2013
800.0
710.5
Hotel revenue in 2013 are 6.8 percent below
700.0 the peak observed in 2007.
661.9
600.0
Millions of $
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
Source: Smith Travel Research Trend Report, January 7, 2014 and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0.0
18
Percent Change in Hotel Revenue and REVPAR
2012 to 2013
10%
REVENUE
8%
REVPAR
6.2%
6%
5.4%
4%
2%
0%
-0.6%
-2%
-1.3%
-2.2% -2.4%
-4%
USA
Virginia
Hampton Roads
Source: Smith Travel Research Trend Report January 7, 2014 and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
19
Why have hotel revenue declined in Hampton Roads and Virginia?
• Sequestration
• Budget uncertainty in Washington D.C.
• Substantial reduction in travel by Federal employees,
especially military personnel and defense contractors.
20
Percent Change in Occupancy Rate within Hampton Roads
2012 to 2013
2%
1%
0.8%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-2.6%
-3.2%
-4%
-5%
-5.3%
-6%
Wmsbg
VaBch
-4.4%
-4.7%
Nrfk Ports
Nnews Hmpt
Ches Suff
Source: Smith Travel Research Trend Report, January 7, 2014 and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
HR
21
Percent Change in Hotel Revenue in Hampton Roads
2012 to 2013 by selected Months during the year
6%
4%
2.1%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-1.3%
-2.8%
-4.7%
-6%
-8%
Jan. to May
Summer Months
Sep. to Dec.
Source: Smith Travel Research Trend Report January 7, 2014 and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
Full Year
22
Percent Change in Hotel Revenue within Hampton Roads
2012 to 2013
4.00%
2.00%
1.4%
0.00%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-2.00%
-1.3%
-4.00%
-4.0%
-6.00%
-5.6%
-8.00%
Wmsbg
VaBch
Nrfk Ports
Nnews Hmpt
Ches Suff
Source: Smith Travel Research Trend Report January 7, 2014, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
HR
23
General Cargo Tonnage at the Port of Hampton Roads
1991 to 2013
20
18
16
18.84
17.83
General Cargo Tonnage increased by 7.5% in
2013 and we had forecasted a 4.2% increase.
Millions of Tons
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0
24
Twenty-Foot Equivalent Container Units (TEUs) at the Port of Hampton Roads
1991 to 2013
2500.000
2,224
2,128
Thousands
2000.000
TEUs increased by 5.6% in 2013 and
we had forecasted a 5.1% increase.
1500.000
1000.000
500.000
Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0.000
25
Some explanations for increase in Cargo in 2013
• Grain, Soybean, Pet and Animal feed exports increased by 38
Percent during first nine months of 2013.
• Exports (tend to be heavier that imports) grew by 8.4% and
imports grew by 6.3 %.
• Growth of new business and expansions from economic
development efforts.
• Computer problems in New York lead to diversion of cargo to
other east coast ports including Hampton Roads.
• Continue to have expanded volume of cargo by rail.
• Larger Ships coming to the port.
26
Shares of Total Loaded TEU Containers for Selected Ports on the East Coast
2006 to 2013*
45%
40%
After declining four years in a row, the market share of the Port
of Hampton Roads reversed course and began to increase in
2012. It has continued to increase in 2013 and is now above its
peak observed in 2007.
35%
30%
Savannah
25%
20%
16.78%
16.67%
15.87%
15.26%
14.88%
16.12%
16.87%
Hampton Roads
Charleston
16.75%
New York/NJ2
15%
10%
5%
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013*
Source: American Association of Port Authorities and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Market shares exclude TEUs for Philadelphia
Miami, Palm Beach and Port Everglades. * data for 2013 is through November.
27
Movement of Containers at the Port of Hampton Roads by Type of
Transportation
2011 to 2013
Millions of Containers
1.40
1.20
1.21
1.27
1.10
1.00
0.80
Rail
Barge & Truck
0.60
TOTAL
0.40
0.20
0.00
2011
2012
2013
Percent of containers moved by Rail has steadily increased from
30.0% in 2011 to 31.9 percent in 2012 and has further increased
to 33.8 percent in 2013.
Source: Virginia Port Authority and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project
28
Average TEUs per Container Vessel Call
2011 to 2013
1,350
1,307
Number of TEUs
1,300
1,250
1,201
1,200
1,158
1,150
1,100
1,050
2011
2012
2013
Average TEUs per Container Vessel Call increased by 3.7% in
2012 and increased further by 8.9 percent in 2013.
Source: Virginia Port Authority and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project
29
Old Dominion University 2013 Hampton Roads Scorecard
Actual Change
2013*
Single Family
Housing Building
Permit Value
+15.7%
Predicted Change
2013
8.2%
Source: Bureau of the Census and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Figures for calendar year 2013
include predicted values for December 2013.
30
Value of Building Permits for One Unit Family Homes
Hampton Roads: 1991 to 2013
1,600
1,338.4
1,400
Value of permits increased by
15.7% in 2013, but is still 39
percent below its peak in 2005
Millions of $
1,200
1,000
812.8
800
600
400
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
200
31
Number of Existing and New Construction Homes Sold
Hampton Roads: 2001-2013
Year
Existing Homes Sold
New Construction
Homes Sold
Percent New
Construction
2001
18,924
4,836
20.4%
2002
19,869
4,969
20.0%
2003
21,421
4,757
18.2%
2004
23,548
4,587
16.3%
2005
24,755
4,379
15.0%
2006
22,405
4,327
16.2%
2007
19,154
3,912
17.0%
2008
15,046
3,178
17.4%
2009
15,851
2010
14,703
2,673 54% decrease 14.4%
From 2002-10
2,265
13.4%
2011
15,818
2,366
13.0%
2012
16,856
2,664
13.6%
2013
18,791
2,878
13.3%
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not
Guaranteed. Figures reported here represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new
construction activity in our region. .
32
Median Sale Price of Existing Residential Homes
Hampton Roads: 2001-2013
Year
Median Price
Percent change year to year
2001
$109,000
9.1%
2002
$116,900
7.3%
2003
$130,000
11.2%
2004
$156,500
20.4%
2005
$192,000
22.7%
2006
$214,900
2007
$223,000
2008
$219,000
-1.8%
2009
$207,000
-5.5%
2010
$203,900
2011
$180,000
2012
$185,000
+2.78%
2013
$190,000
+2.70%
90% increase
from 2002-07
19% decrease
From 2007-11
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
11.9%
3.8%
-1.5%
-11.7%
33
Distribution of Existing Home Sales by Type of Financing
Hampton Roads: 1995-2013
90%
80%
FHA
70%
VA
60%
50%
CONV
cash
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information
Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed.
34
Estimated Inventory of Existing Residential Homes as Measured by Active Listings
Hampton Roads: 2010, 2012 and 2013
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
Average ( Jan. 1995 through December 2013) = 7,663
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2010
Jun
2012
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2013
Source: Real Estate Information Network Inc. and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
35
Estimated Months of Supply of Existing Homes in Hampton Roads
Based on Average Sales in the Last 12 Months: January 1996 – December 2013
12
10
December 2013: 5.34
Peak: 10.24 (November 2010)
8
6
Average (Jan 1996- November 2013) = 5.58 months
4
2
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
36
Existing Residential Homes Sold and Average Days on the Market
Hampton Roads: 2000-2013
30,000
23,548
24,755
102
25,000
20,000
15,000
88
83
18,924
97
88
88
18,791
19,154
17,058
15,851
15,818
65
16,856
67
61
15,046
10,000
27
5,000
14,703
28
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Homes Sold
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Average Days on Market
Source: Real Estate Information Network Inc. and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Days on Market is calculated from the date listed to the date under contract date for existing homes sold.
37
Summary on Existing Homes
•
•
•
•
Inventories have decreased substantially since 2010.
Days on Market have also decreased.
Sales volume of Homes have increased.
Supply of homes currently is at 5.34 months, below the
historic average of 5.58 months.
• But the median price of homes have increased only slightly:
2.8 percent in 2012 and 2.7 percent in 2013.
• The explanation lies in distressed market– Short sales and
bank owned homes (REOs).
38
Active Listing of Distressed Homes (REO & Short Sales)
As a Percentage of Total Existing Residential Homes Listings in Hampton Roads
35%
30%
December 2013: 22.89%
Peak: 29.13% (December 2012)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: Real Estate Information Network (REIN) and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
39
Sales of Distressed Homes (REO & Short Sales)
As a Percentage of Total Existing Residential Homes Sold in Hampton Roads
45%
40%
December 2013: 29.05%
Peak: 42.8% (March 2011)
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: Real Estate Information Network (REIN) and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
40
Number of Existing Short Sale and REOs Residential Homes Sold
Hampton Roads: 2006- 2013
Percent
Short
Sales
REO Sales
Percent REO
Sales
Year
All Sales
Short
Sales
2006
22,405
3
<1%
56
<1%
2007
19,152
40
<1%
223
1.2
2008
15,047
217
1.4
833
5.5
2009
15,849
598
3.8
2,271
14.3
2010
14,696
784
5.3
3,021
20.6
2011
15,817
1,127
7.1
4,213
26.6
2012
16,856
1,644
9.8
3,337
19.8
2013
18,791
1,769
9.4
3,178
16.9
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed.
41
Average Price of Existing Short Sale, REOs, and Non-Distressed
Residential Homes Sold
Hampton Roads: 2006-2013
Year
NonDistressed
Sales
Short Sales
Short Sales
Price % NonDistressed Price
REO Sales
REO Price %
Non-Distressed
Sales
2006
$250,254
$241,666
96.6
$120,817
48.3
2007
$261,723
$237,897
90.9
$163,421
62.4
2008
$255,852
$239,110
93.5
$184,462
72.1
2009
$243,902
$239,913
98.4
$164,229
67.3
2010
$251,572
$231,211
91.9
$151,612
60.3
2011
$236,358
$212,967
90.1
$135,304
57.3
2012
$237,215
$187,527
79.1
$134,535
56.7
2013
$245,332
$180,001
73.4
$131,688
53.7
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed.
REOs represent Bank Owned Homes.
42
Hampton Roads Residential Foreclosure Fillings
Foreclosure filings in Hampton Roads
declined by only 7.9% in 2013, compared to a
decline of 22.8 % for Virginia.
2006 to 2013
15000
12,815
9,794
10000
8,267
6,536
6,988
7,615
5000
2,112
644
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: RealtyTrac and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. NTS and REO
43
Percent of Housing Units with Foreclosure Fillings
Hampton Roads: 2010 and 2013
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2010
2013
Source: RealtyTrac and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
44
Estimated Inventory of New Construction Residential Homes
as Measured by Active Listings
Hampton Roads: 2007, 2010, 2012, and 2013
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
Average ( Jan. 1995 through December 2013) = 1,908
1,000
500
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
2007
May
Jun
2010
Jul
2012
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2013
supply of new construction homes currently is
at 6.7 months, its historic average since 1996.
Source: Real Estate Information Network Inc. and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
45
Estimated Months of Supply of New Construction Homes in Hampton Roads
Based on Average Sales in the Last 12 Months: January 1996 – December 2013
14
12
10
8
6
Average (Jan 1996- December 2013) = 6.70 months
6.69
4
2
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
46
Estimated House Rental and Principal, Interest, and Taxes for a House Payment
Hampton Roads: 2001-2013
Year
Median Monthly Rent for
a Three Bedroom House
P,I&T Monthly for a
Median Priced
Existing House
Ratio of Monthly Rent
to P,I&T
2001
$ 882
836
1.05
2002
911
861
1.06
2003
1,037
890
1.16
2004
1,044
1,073
0.97
2005
1,087
1,315
0.83
2006
1,118
1,533
0.73
2007
1,164
1,598
0.73
2008
1,247
1,507
0.83
2009
1,236
1,307
0.95
2010
1,277
1,233
1.04
2011
1,319
1,071
1.23
2012
1,454
1,015
1.43
2013
1,570
1,080
1.45
Source: H.U.D. and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. It is assumed that real estate tax rate is 1% and the tax reduction
received by home owners would compensate for home owners insurance and maintenance expenditures.
47
Old Dominion University 2014 Forecast for Hampton Roads MSA
2013*
2014
Nominal Gross Regional
Product
$87.58B
$90.99B
Real Gross Regional Product
(2009=100)
$82.19B
$84.00B
+2.20
Civilian Employment
758,775
770,157
+1.5
Unemployment Rate
5.9 %
5.3 %
Taxable Sales
$20.44B
$21.18B
+3.6
Hotel Revenue
$661.90M
$677.78M
+2.4
18.84M
19.74M
+4.8
$812.84M
$877.05M
+7.9
General Cargo Tonnage
Housing Permit Value
*Figures for calendar year 2013 include predicted values for Dec. 2013.
% Change
48
2014 Regional Summary
•
Look for regional economic growth to be below its half-century annual average of
3.1 percent and below that of the nation.
•
Port, health-care industries, and tourism are likely to help the region’s economic
expansion in 2014
•
Single-family home prices in 2014 are likely to continue to increase at a moderate
pace.
– Inventories, sale volume, and days-on-market are all moving in the right
direction. Months of supply of both existing and new construction homes are
below their historic average.
•
Lingering distressed volume remains a concern
– REOs appear to be one of the driving forces behind lower sale prices.
49
Any Questions?
Slides used in both presentations will be
available on our website by tomorrow
Professor Vinod Agarwal
Professor Gary A. Wagner
www.odu.edu/forecasting
50

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