The Taylor Wessing Technology Barometer Tracking the temperature of the UK technology sector > January 2015 Powered by: Contents Taylor Wessing View......................................................3 Share prices and valuation.........................................4 Trading & Confidence..............................................7 Sub-sector trends................................................... 8 M&A and fundraising.............................................10 About Taylor Wessing............................................... 12 All share prices quoted in this document are as at the close of business on 31 December 2014 Technology Barometer | 3 << Contents Taylor Wessing view Your # guide to the top takeaways from this quarter’s Technology Barometer: #(MBTW)All-Share The Megabuyte Taylor Wessing All-Share saw an increase in Corporate activity and an overall increase in performance at the end of 2014. #Boardroomconfidence Outlook overall positive outlook, with 89% of respondents feeling confident about the sector. #Equitymarkets Equity markets were impacted upon by the reduction of oil prices. #PrivateEquity Increase in Private Equity activity in Q4 2014, especially in public to private transactions. #Deals 7 Private Equity deals, valued at £3.2bn. #CapitalMarkets Decrease in activity in Capital Markets space. #Institutionalplacings 8 institutional placings in Q4 2014. IPO of Gamma Communications. 4 | Technology Barometer << Contents Corporate activity lifts MBTW All-Share Following two periods in decline, the Megabuyte Taylor Wessing (MBTW) All-Share enjoyed a strong end to 2014, albeit strengthened by corporate activity. As a result, the MBTW AllShare ended 2014 8% higher than where it started, significantly outperforming the FTSE All-Share, which has declined 2% over the last 12 months. In a period where equity markets were, in general, impacted by the slump in the oil price, the MBTW All-Share managed to return 9% in the final quarter of 2014. The strong end to the year more than offset a 3% decline in the previous quarter and outperformed the FTSE All-Share, which increased by just 1% over the same period. The outperformance was, however, augmented by a number of take-private bids announced over the last three months, including those for Allocate Software, Advanced Computer Software and Incadea in the Software sector and Daisy Group in ICT Services. The Software-related deals helped drive the sector’s index up by 13% in the fourth quarter, which compares to a 6% return for the ICT Services sector. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, the sectors have returned 14% and 3% respectively. Looking in greater detail at the Software sector, Accounting & Enterprise Software was by far the best performing peer group in fourth quarter, returning 25%, driven by the take-private bids for Allocate Software, Advanced Computer Software and Incadea, at respective 35%, 17% and 60% premiums to the prior day closing prices. Specialist Applications was the only group to finish the quarter lower, down 1%, as AVEVA continued to struggle to rekindle investor affection after its surprise September profit warning. The ICT Services sector was driven by an 11% increase for the Mobile Wireless & Satellite peer group, as a result of strong performances by Avanti (+45%), eServGlobal (+22%) and Bango (+21%). Meanwhile, Data Centre & Hosting Services increased roughly in line with the sector, up 5%. Other peer group performances were more muted, but it is worth noting a handful of Telecoms & Networks businesses, which all returned in excess of 20%, including Redcentric (+20%), Adept Telecom (+21%) and Maintel (+30%). 3 months 1200 MBTW All-Share Software ICT Services 1150 1100 index Chart 1: Megabuyte Index Series – Q4 2014 1050 1000 950 Source: Megabuyte, Capital IQ 900 08-Oct-14 28-Oct-14 17-Nov-14 07-Dec-14 27-Dec-14 Technology Barometer | 5 << Contents 2800 MBTW All-Share Software ICT Services 2300 index Chart 2: Megabuyte Index Series – since inception 1800 1300 800 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Source: Megabuyte, Capital IQ Valuations rebound from lows After falling to a 12 month low of 17.2x in October, the MBTW All-Share’s PE multiple started to pick up in the fourth quarter, to finish 2014 at 19.4x, albeit still 8% lower than where it started the year. On an EV/EBITDA basis, having eased back from the January high of 12.6x throughout the first, second and third quarters, the MBTW All-Share EV/EBITDA multiple ticked up 3% in the final three months of the year to 10.6x. The Software and ICT Services sectors’ PE multiples followed a similar path through the fourth quarter, ending the period up 6% to 18.8x and 7% to 20.0x respectively, with the ICT Services premium relative to Software edging up to 6%. By contrast, on an EV/EBITDA basis, the Software sector’s multiple improved by 5% to 11.5x, whilst ICT Services remained relatively unchanged from the previous quarter at 9.9x. As a result, on this metric, the Software sector is now priced at a 17% premium to ICT Services. 6 | Technology Barometer << Contents 28.00 Forward looking PE ratio Chart 3: Valuation statistics MBTW All-Share Software ICT Services 23.00 18.00 13.00 8.00 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Source: Megabuyte, Capital IQ Whilst changes to PE valuations may have been similar for the sectors in the fourth quarter, there were some significant differences at the peer group level. Within Software, the PE multiple attached to the Accounting & Enterprise Software peer group widened by 17% to 19.3x, driven by the take-private bids for Allocate Software, Advanced Computer Software and Incadea. Meanwhile, Media & Telecoms Software also enjoyed a significant uplift from 16.6x to 20.7x. Banking & Insurance Software remained the most highly valued software group, up 5% to 22.6x, whilst Security & Infrastructure Software and Specialist Applications are now the most lowly valued, down 16% to 14.0x and up just 2% to 18.4x respectively. Aside from a 13% jump in the PE multiple for the Mobile, Wireless & Satellite peer group to 26.7x, changes in valuation in the ICT Services sector were much more subtle. Data Centre & Hosting Services enjoyed a 7% uplift to 19.0x, but Consulting & Systems Integration and Telecoms & Networks were up by just 3% and 2% to 19.5x and 17.8x respectively, whilst the Infrastructure Services PE multiple contracted by 3% to 11.8x. Table 1: Peer Group valuations Peer Group Weighted average current year valuation EV/Sales EV/EBITDA PE ratio Accounting & Enterprise Software 3.5x 12.8x 19.3x Banking & Insurance software 2.2x 9.8x 22.6x Media & Telecoms software 2.7x 10.9x 20.7x Security & Infrastructure Software3.9x 9.6x 14.0x Specialist Applications 3.3x 11.5x 18.1x All Software 3.3x 11.5x 18.7x Consulting & Systems Integration 2.7x 13.4x 19.5x Datacentre Hosting Services 5.0x 10.7 19.0x Infrastructure Services 0.8x 5.4x 11.8x Mobile, Wireless & Satellite 4.8x 10.3x 26.9x Telecoms & Networks 1.7x 9.9x 17.8x All ICT Services 3.2x 9.9x 20.1x Megabuyte All Share 3.3x 10.6x 19.4x Technology Barometer | 7 << Contents Trading and confidence A slightly more cautious outlook Chart 4: CXO change in confidence in Q4 2014 Boardrooms on the whole remained confident in the final quarter of 2014 although there were some signs of caution from a handful of the survey’s respondents, with 7% of CXO feeling less confident about their company’s prospects than three months ago. However, for the majority – 53% of respondents – confidence levels remained unchanged over the last three months, whilst 40% highlighted an improved sentiment. More confident No change Less confident 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% Dec-14 30.0% Sep-14 40.0% Jun-14 50.0% 60.0% Mar-14 Source: Megabuyte Chart 5: CXO level of confidence over next 12 months Very positive Positive Neutral Cautious Very Cautious 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% Dec-14 Source: Megabuyte 30.0% Sep-14 40.0% Jun-14 50.0% Mar-14 60.0% 70.0% With the marginal increase in cautious responses, the total proportion of CXOs feeling either ‘very positive’ or ‘positive’ for their company’s prospects over the next 12 months reduced by 4.6 percentage points, albeit still representing a significant majority at 89%. Moreover, the proportion feeling ‘very positive’ actually increased from 23% to 30%. At the other end of the spectrum, while the number of ‘very cautious’ responses remained at zero, ‘cautious’ responses increased slightly to 3% of the total. Meanwhile, the proportion of CXO’s that view their prospects as ‘neutral’ over the next 12 months increased from 7% to 10%. In addition to the figures showing a slightly more mixed sentiment, some of this quarter’s qualitative responses were certainly more cautious than others. Those of more positive sentiments highlighted an overall improving business environment, with companies committing more to software projects. Meanwhile, others noted that an increased level of consolidation in certain sectors is creating greater opportunities for the smaller players. In contrast to the optimism expressed by some CXO’s, others indicated that the trading environment in certain areas of Europe remained weak. 8 | Technology Barometer Technology Barometer | 9 << Contents Accounting & Enterprise Software During the fourth quarter we saw another European enterprise software vendor move into private hands, as US private equity outfit Vista Equity Partners acquired Advanced Computer Software, valuing the equity at £725m. The transaction follows similar deals for Dutch businesses UNIT4 and Exact, leaving just Sage and SAP as the two significant European enterprise software businesses that remain publicly listed. While each private equity-backed business is tackling the SaaS transition in a different way, all have been clear that the reason for their respective takeprivate deals has been to provide more flexibility in how they make the transition. And with the US SaaS vendors such as NetSuite and Workday now making a concerted push into Europe, the pressure is on for the European incumbents to take that step. Banking & Insurance Software We continue to see a mix of trading conditions in the Banking & Insurance Software peer group. IT spend within retail banks continues to be under pressure, as evidenced by a serious profit warning from Temenos in early January. Conversely, technology spend within the investment banking segment has been robust, although it remains to be seen if weaker capital markets will impact investment levels in 2015. The most active area of this peer group, both from a trading and corporate perspective remains the insurance software sector. Although there were fewer insurance software deals in the fourth quarter following a very active third quarter, we expect at least one major deal to complete before Easter. Meanwhile, the trading environment continues to be buoyed by aggregator-led disruption in the insurance supply chain, overlaid with ongoing regulatory change. Specialist Applications In this group of vertical software solutions, we are starting to see the impact of the falling oil price on vendors that are exposed to the oil & gas industry. First and perhaps most significant was AVEVA’s first half profit warning, which was related to weaker demand in the Oil & Gas industry, amongst other factors. Since then, Swedish provider of ERP software to a number of verticals, including oil & gas, IFS has warned that licence revenues for the fourth quarter will be below expectations, whilst full year results for Idox’s Engineering Information Management division were also held back by a fall in activity in the oil & gas sector. Interestingly, against this challenging backdrop, AVEVA recently completed the acquisition of 8over8, a provider of contract management software to the oil & gas, mining and other infrastructure industries, for £26.9m. << Contents Security & infrastructure Software The Security & Infrastructure Software peer group on the whole performed well in the quarter, with vendors continuing to take advantage of increasing adoption of newer IT infrastructures and the security implications of doing so. Of particular note was the news that Symantec is to split its Security and Information Management businesses into two separate publicly traded entities, as well as press reports that AVG Technologies may be in line for a take-private. In contrast, there has been IPO activity in the Infrastructure Software market as New Relic and Hortonworks both successfully debuted during the quarter, while UKheadquartered Sophos was recently reported to be eyeing a LSE IPO. Also in the UK, both Corero Network Security and Digital Barriers had to seek additional funding from the capital markets to finance short-term cash requirements. Telecoms & Networks Events in recent months in UK telecoms are likely to kickstart significant M&A in both consumer and business markets. BT’s planned move into mobile services has been the trigger for consumerfocused M&A as all players in the market consider their own options for a converged fixed/mobile/ video future. With BT now pursuing the acquisition of EE, having also been offered Telefonica O2, it seems likely that there will be at least one other major deal involving two or more of Vodafone, Telefonica O2, Virgin Media, Sky, 3UK and Talk Talk. Meanwhile, the take-private of Daisy and a change of backer for XLN are two events suggesting at least a continuation and perhaps an acceleration of already high levels of M&A among business comms providers, driven by the search for scale and product diversification into new growth areas. Sub-sector trends Media & Telecoms Software After a period of consolidation in the end market, momentum looks to be once again improving for software vendors exposed to developments in mobile technology, namely 4G. At the forefront of this trend are Anite and Spirent. In October, the latter warned that trading conditions had softened in the third quarter, particularly in the US and China, due to merger activity and delays in capital expenditure in the end market. However, just three months later, Spirent indicated that order intake in the fourth quarter had exceeded the Board’s expectations. In a similar fashion, after a slow start to the year, interim results from Anite indicated improving momentum in group’s Handset Testing and Network Testing businesses. Consulting & Systems Integration The overarching competitive dynamics in the European IT services market remain unchanged with the US and Indian players taking share from the European incumbents. We continue to believe that merging with each other is not the solution to the problem but, strategic moves in the US by the European players may help to level the playing field over time. Consequently, we were particularly interested to note the acquisition by Atos of Xerox’s US-based IT outsourcing operations in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the trading performance of many of the European mid-sized players, which are often national champions and/or have strong vertic5al market positioning, is generally much stronger. And this dynamic has not clearly not been lost on the private equity community as Apax acquired Nordic champion EVRY in a public-to-private transaction in the fourth quarter. Data Centre & Hosting services Fundamentals remain strong across the Data Centre & Hosting Services peer group, driven by the move to Cloud computing and companies outsourcing their IT requirements. However, the sector is also very dynamic, with service providers occasionally being blindsided by changing corporate demands, particularly the move to a hybrid Cloud model combining private and public Cloud computing; Iomart is a good recent example. M&A continues unabated, with Host Europe (which attempted to buy Iomart in the summer of 2014) recently snapping up Intergenia in Germany and Onyx buying Knowledge IT. Meanwhile, we expect more private equity exits from the class of 2010/11 (after Pulsant last year), potentially including Six Degrees and Adapt in 2015 and Onyx, Attenda and UK2 in 2016. Mobile Services Whilst mobile network operators and handset manufacturers tend to be large, generally profitable and cash generative beasts, the multitude of smaller companies selling either to MNOs or to mobile users face on-going challenges, navigating slow moving MNOs, rapid changes in technology and market demands, and so on. Just in the last quarter or so, there have been revenue downgrades or misses for public companies as diverse as eServGlobal (mobile money), Telit (m2m) and Mobile Tornado (push to talk) and disappointing private company accounts from, for example, Truphone (low cost calling) and ip.access (small cells). In corporate activity, Monitise (mobile money), eServGlobal and Truphone raised funding, whilst M&A activity included recently IPOd IMImobile and Esendex. Infrastructure Services Following on from the negative news of Trustmarque’s problems in the third quarter, the corporate news in the Infrastructure Services peer group was altogether more encouraging in the fourth quarter as Core Capital sold its 35% stake in Kelway to CDW for a double digit multiple. From a trading perspective, we continue to see a wide range of growth performances in this sector as strong sales execution and a service-led approach differentiate the winners from the losers. Meanwhile, a rapid increase in demand for Cloud solutions, especially those that utilise multiple layers of Cloud infrastructure (hybrid Cloud) is benefitting those vendors with a strong service offering in this area. 10 | Technology Barometer << Contents M&A and fundraising Last minute deals The fourth quarter marked a standout period for private equity activity, with the seven deals registered under our coverage collectively valued at £3.2bn. Significantly, a resurgence of public-to-private transactions was a key feature of the period. By contrast, the capital markets were in a quieter mood leading up to the New Year, whilst M&A activity was helped by a busy December. The largest M&A deal was completed by Host Europe, through its acquisition of Intergenia from Oakley for €210m (£165m), at a valuation of just over 10x run rate EBITDA. Meanwhile, there were other Data Centre & Hosting related deals for Iomart, Onyx and SCC, with the acquisitions of ServerSpace for up to £4.25m, Knowledge IT for £6.7m and SSE Enterprise Telecoms’ Fareham data centre for £12m respectively. From a pan-European perspective, Idox completed its first acquisition for 18 months in the form of German compliance software player Digital Spirit. Alongside this, Datatec’s ICT Services subsidiary Logicalis completed the significant strategic acquisition of Inforsacom, to build a critical mass in the German region, and, in the opposite direction, privately owned panEuropean network operator Interoute acquired Vtesse. The Asia Pacific market also attracted corporate interest, with COLT spending €130m on sister company KVH, or 5.7x ‘underlying’ EBITDA. In addition, low-cost broadband provider New Call Telecom spent a rumoured $175m for a 70% stake in emerging markets-focused messaging provider Nimbuzz, following up this deal with the purchase of UK-based wholesale voice carrier Wavecrest. The largest deal in the Software sector saw US-listed Dealertrack Technologies make a formal offer for Incadea at 190p per share, valuing the equity at £122m, equivalent to a very healthy 20x current year EV/EBITDA. Meanwhile, the UK design/engineering software space continued to attract interest from international buyers with NASDAQ-listed Trimble acquiring UK-based Amtech. Elsewhere, investment banking software provider First Derivatives acquired a further 46% stake in US-based Kx Systems, whilst information management software provider Ideagen doubled-up with the purchase of Gael and Anite acquired US-based Xceed Technologies. Last, but certainly not least, Servelec acquired Corelogic for £23.5m, in order to expand into the complementary social care market. A busy end to 2014 for private equity A total of seven private equity deals were completed in the fourth quarter, valued at an aggregate £3.2bn; the highest level since at least the end of 2009. We believe that the primary forces behind the increased level of activity include buoyant debt markets and the easing of quoted company valuations. Table 2: Selected UK M&A deals Acquirer Target Value Interoute Vtesse Networks £30m* Anite Xceed Technologies £18.6m IMImobile TxtLocal £13.2m First Derivatives Kx Systems £36m (47%) New Call Telecom Nimbuzz £108.5m (70%) CDW Kelway £84m (35%) Trimble Amtech £50m* COLT Group KVH £102.3m Innovation Group EMaC £36m Servelec Group Corelogic £23.5m Dealertrack Technologies Incadea £132.5m Ideagen Host Europe Gael Intergenia £18m £164.6m Source: Megabuyte, Company announcements NB: *Megabuyte Estimate Technology Barometer | 11 << Contents Within the fourth quarter there were three public to private transactions, with Allocate Software, Daisy and Advanced Computer Software agreeing offers from HgCapital, the Riley/ Penta/Toscafund consortium and Vista Equity Partners respectively. These deals were valued at a total of £1.5bn, with Vista’s buyout of Advanced Computer Software, struck at an enterprise value of £761m (15x current year EV/EBITDA), the largest take-private under our coverage since Vista took Misys off the public markets in June 2012 for £1.3bn. Aside from the public-to-private transactions, The Carlyle Group, Euromoney and private investors funded the estimated $700m buyout of Dealogic Holdings, little more than three years after it was taken off AIM for just under $250m. Meanwhile, in the telecoms space, there was a change in owners for provider of telecoms services to small businesses XLN, where Blackstone’s GSO Capital Partners backed a secondary buyout from ECI for a reported £140-150m, or about 8x trailing EBITDA. Cinven also had a busy end to 2014, buying Northgate’s Public Services unit from KKR for an estimated £380m, or 9x trailing EV/EBITDA. The deal represents the second exit for KKR of the Northgate group of companies following the sale of Northgate Managed Services to Capita in early 2013, and leaves KKR with only the underperforming HR software and services division Northgate Arinso. Rounding off the quarter’s activity, CVC Capital Partners purchased an 80% stake in Sky Bet from Sky (formerly BSkyB), for £600m in cash upon completion with a further deferred and contingent consideration up to £120m. Limited capital market activity There were a total of eight institutional placings completed in the fourth quarter, including the IPO of Gamma Communications, which successfully placed 50% of its shares to institutions, at a market capitalisation of £162m. However, the company did not raise any new money, given a healthy balance sheet and good cash generation. The main aim of the IPO was to raise its profile. Of the follow-on placings completed, Ideagen’s £17.5m fundraise was of particular note. The funds raised were used to finance the majority of the £18m acquisition of one its closest peers, Gael. The deal, completed at 7.8x EV/EBITDA, represents one of the group’s most significant acquisitions to date and will approximately double Ideagen’s revenue base to just under £20m. Elsewhere, security-related vendors Corero Network Security and Digital Barriers had to seek additional funding from the capital markets to finance short-term cash requirements. Table 3: Recent Private Equity deals Enterprise Value Company XLN Telecom Holdings £145m* Investor Deal type XLN Management SBO Allocate Software £95.9m HgCapital P2P Daisy Group £635.3m Chain Bidco P2P Dealogic Holdings £440.8m Advanced Computer £761m Software Sky Bet £750m Northgate Public Services £380m* Carlyle, Euromoney Vista Equity Partners CVC Capital Partners SBO P2P MBO Cinven SBO Source: Megabuyte, Company announcements NB: *Megabuyte Estimate Table 4: Recent Capital Markets Transactions Company Mkt cap @ issue price Amount raised Deal type £165.2m na IPO £9.5m £1.0m £12.7m £5.5m £30.3m £6.0m Follow-on public offering £17.3m £4.5m Follow-on public offering £12.9m £3.2m Digital Barriers £31.3m £7.4m Ideagen £59.3m £17.5m eServGlobal £76.0m £2.9m Gamma Telecom Holdings Outsourcery Group Castleton Technology Pinnacle Technology Group Corero Network Security eg solutions Source: Megabuyte, company announcements Follow-on public offering Follow-on public offering Follow-on public offering Follow-on public offering Follow-on public offering Follow-on public offering 12 | Technology Barometer << Contents About Taylor Wessing Key Contacts Russell Holden Partner, Head of Corporate Finance +44 (0)20 7300 4678 [email protected] Tim Stocks Partner, Corporate Finance +44 (0)20 7300 4737 [email protected] Mike Turner Partner, Head of International Technology Group +44 (0)20 7300 4271 [email protected] Graham Hann Partner, Head of UK Technology Group +44 (0)20 7300 4839 [email protected] Robert Fenner Partner, Private Equity +44 (0)20 7300 4986 [email protected] David Mardle Partner, Venture Capital +44 (0)1223 446425 [email protected] At Taylor Wessing we have a long history of acting for technology companies or those involved more generally in the TMT space. A large portion of our work is providing advice to technology suppliers and users. This means we have a greater familiarity with emerging technologies and business practices than would otherwise be the case. Our in-depth understanding of the legal issues that can arise in connection with the use of technology is based on specialists who have the requisite experience, both legal and practical, needed to analyse that issue, undertake an informed assessment of the risks and deliver a solution. We undertake the full range of legal services for our clients in the technology sector including M&A, funding arrangements, intellectual property, commercial contracts, employment and disputes. Equity Capital Markets Taylor Wessing has one of the largest dedicated capital markets practices in Europe, with genuine cross-border capability and a strong presence in Asia and the Middle East. 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