CENTRE AFRICAIN POUR LES APPLIC ATIONS CA DE LA METEOROLOGIE AU DEVELOPPEMENT Institution Africaine parrainée par la CEA et l’OMM AFRICAN CENTRE OF METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT African Institution under the aegis of UNECA and WMO SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING PREVISION DES CONDITIONS METEO A FORT IMPACT: PSN06- 819 Date of issue / Etablie le: February, 0st 2015 This bulletin is a three days forecast for occurrences of five severe weather phenomena (Heavy Rainfall, Rainfall, Strong wind, wind, Extreme temperature, temperature, Dust or Sand, Sand, Wave) Wave). Ce bulletin donne une prévision à trois jours de l’occurrence de cinq phénomènes météorologiques à fort impact (Fortes Pluies , vent fort, fort, Températures Températures Extrêmes, Extrêmes, Poussière ou vent de sable, sable, Vague ). MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON FEBRUARY, 2nd 2015 LEGEND Rainfall > 50mm/24h Confidence: Medium: Medium East Mozambique, North/Central /Central Madagascar. Rainfall > 50mm/24h Confidence: Low: Central Zambia, Malawi, North-west North Mozambique. South Temperature > 40°C: South Chad, North CAR, South-east of Sudan and East/North/Central of South Sudan. Temperature < 0°C: North-west st Algeria. Algeria North-east Morocco, Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km: Northwest Mauritania, South South-east Morocco, South/West/North South/West/North-east Algeria, Central/South Tunisia, North/South-west/Central Libya, North-west west Egypt. Wave>3m: North-east coast of Libya. 85, Avenue des Ministères : (227) 20 73 49 92 -- Fax : (227) 20 72 36 27 -- BP : 13184 NiameyNiamey Niger : [email protected] -- Web : http//www.acmad.org MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON FEBRUARY, 3rd 2015 LEGEND Rainfall > 50mm/24h Confidence: Medium: Central Madagascar Madagascar. Rainfall > 50mm/24h Confidence: Low: Central Zambia, South Malawi, North/North-east North/North Mozambique. Temperature > 40°C: South Chad, North CAR, South-east South of Sudan and East/North of South Sudan. Temperature < 0°C: North Morocco, North Algeria.. Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km: South Morocco, North-west Mauritania, West Algeria, North/South/Central Libya, North-west west Egypt. Wave>3m: North-east Coast of Algeria, North coast of Tunisia. MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON FEBUARY, 4th 2015 LEGEND Rainfall > 50mm/24h Confidence: Medium: Medium NIL. Rainfall > 50mm/24h Confidence: Low: West/South-east DRC, South Malawi, Central/North Central/North-east Mozambique, Central Madagascar. Temperature > 40°C: South Chad, South of Sudan and East/North/Central East of South Sudan. Temperature < 0°C: North-east Morocco, North-west west Algeria. Algeria Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km: North-west west Mauritania, Mauritania North Niger, South Libya, North-west North Egypt, North/West Chad. Wave>3m: North-east coast of Algeria, North coast of Tunisia. Source: Synthesis of: 1) Dynamic of atmosphere by different global models (ECMWF, GFS, ARPEGE, UKMO), 2) Index of extreme events from ECMWF (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/med http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/efi/efi_tp/ ium/eps/efi/efi_tp/), 3) Occurrence probability of extreme precipitation from TIGGE project ensemble models (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_extreme_prob.html ( jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_extreme_prob.html), probability exceeding the 90th percentile [%] 4) MJO active phase. 85, Avenue des Ministères : (227) 20 73 49 92 -- Fax : (227) 20 72 36 27 -- BP : 13184 NiameyNiamey Niger : [email protected] -- Web : http//www.acmad.org
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