E-Mobility market and business model evolution

E-Mobility market and
business model
evolution
Labora 2014
HOTEL CASCAIS MIRAGEM, 16.10.14
Regulatory requirements push improvements in most regions –
In Europe, NA and Japan, there is also a strong customer pull
Assessment CO2 emission/fuel consumption regulation and customer pull
> Corporate CO2 emission
target [g/km]
> Fuel efficiency targets [km/l]
≙ 15.1
km/l
≙ 20.3
km/l
> Potential4) corporate CO2
emission targets [g/km]
> Additional potential fleet xEV
target share
> CAFE2) [g/mi]
> Additional ZEV regulation
CARB
≙ 286
≙ 213
≙ 163
g/mi
g/mi
g/mi
941)
169
154
-43%
-44%
116
105
75
≙ 2.07
MJ/km
≙ 1.82
MJ/km
-13%
-32%
132
> Inovar – Auto energy
efficiency increases [MJ/km]
178
-43%
166
132
95
145
101
t.d.b.
2012
>2021
2025
2013
2020
2025
t.b.d.
2013
2020
2025
2013
2020
2025
2013
2020
2025
Customer
pull3)
Customer will only buy cars with most efficient/lowest
Customer do not consider CO2 emissions/consumption
CO2 emission technology (^~2020)
in purchase decision (~2020)
1) Average weight depended CO2 emission target 2) Example for passenger car
3) End customer pull for low CO2 emission/low fuel consumption powertrain and/or alternative powertrains 4) No decision made yet
Source: FAW; EPA, EU; Inovar; Roland Berger
LABORA-Lisboa-16-10-2014.pptx
2
In Europe, OEMs need to reduce their CO2 emissions between 25% and
30% compared to 2012
Estimated OEMs CO2 emission targets Europe 2021
3)
-27%
-29%
101
2021
2012
2021
100
98
2012
2021
2012
-29%
-29%
143
138
94
2012
-30%
-29%
138
132
4)
2021
133
129
95
92
2012
2021
2012
2021
5)
-30%
-30%
133
93
2012
2021
1) Average weight depended CO2 emission target
Source: Roland Berger
2021
2) Example for passenger car
2021
2012
3) Incl. Mini, Rolls-Royce
-27%
121
93
93
2012
-25%
124
122
92
2012
-25%
-24%
131
2021
4) Incl. Smart
120
91
2012
88
2021
2012
2021
5) Incl. Alfa Romeo, Lancia
LABORA-Lisboa-16-10-2014.pptx
3
Electrification is needed to comply with CO2-targets – around 2% BEV
and 7% (plug-in) hybrids expected in 2021
Mid-term emission reduction level of selected OEMs
Volume OEMs –
CO2 emission reduction [g/km]
Premium OEMs –
CO2 emission reduction [g/km]
132
Propulsion share
[% of sales EU27]
100%
2%
136
20
23
9
2
98
4
8
94
123
2
106
8
98
2%
89%
143
~ 1.8
mio
cars
21
19
7
2012 ICE
7%
RL
2
95
9
2
93
Fleet CO2 Gap 2021
emis- for target
sion xEV1)
2012 ICE
RL
1) Full hybrids; PHEVs/REEVs; EVs ICE = Engine and other powertrain improvement,
RL = Road load reduction (weight reduction, tires, aero), Fleet – Change in vehicle segment shares
Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
2
111
10
101
Fleet CO2 Gap 2021
emis- for target
sion xEV1)
2021
EV
HEV/PHEV/REEV
CNG
Diesel/gas engines
LABORA-Lisboa-16-10-2014.pptx
4
Until 2016, cumulated production volume of EVs and PHEVs will be
around 1.5 mio vehicles globally
Projected production of EVs and PHEVs 2012 through 2016
Country
Domestic production of EVs/PHEVs ['000 units]
Top 3 models in each country
448
Nissan Leaf EV, Toyota Prius PHEV,
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
448
Chevrolet Volt PHEV, Tesla Model S, Nissan Leaf
204
BMW i3, VW e-up!, VW Golf PHEV
200
Renault ZOE Z.E., Renault Kangoo EV,
smart fortwo ED
169
26
Chery QQEV, BYD Qin, Kandi KD
Chevrolet Spark EV, Kia Soul EV, Kia Ray EV
Note: No significant EV/PHEV production is expected in Italy
Source: fka; Roland Berger
LABORA-Lisboa-16-10-2014.pptx
5
OEMs try to address all issues around EVs in a "one-stop" shopping
approach
Example: Renault offering together with partners
Charging
solution at home
(wallbox)
Contract
Insurance
Electricity
supply
Services
Buy
or lease
Buy
or lease
Monthly lease
Energy bill
"One-stop shopping" in the Renault network
Source: Renault
LABORA-Lisboa-16-10-2014.pptx
6
Battery leasing models are used to bring sales price down and increase
customer confidence in reliability
Example: Renault France – Vehicle comparisions
Passenger cars (5-seat sedan)
Commercial vehicles (2-seat LCV)
Selected model
Diesel
Clio Authentique
5P dCi 75 eco
Battery Electric
Zoe Z.E.
Selected model
Diesel
Kangoo Gd Volume
Confort dCi 85
Battery Electric
Kangoo Maxi Z.E.
Length
4,027 mm
4,086 mm
Length
4,597 mm
4,597 mm
Width
Max. engine power
1,720 mm
1,540 mm
Width
2,133 mm
2,133 mm
55 kW
60 kW
Max. torque
200 kW
226 kW
Top speed
165 km/hr
135 km/hr
Top speed
158 km/hr
130 km/hr
Seats
5
5
Carrying capacity (weight)
800 kg
650 kg
Doors
5
5
Carrying capacity (volume)
4.6 m3
4.0-4.6 m3
Trunk volume
288 l
338 l
Transmission
Manual
Automatic
Range (NEDC)
1,375 km
200 km
Range (NEDC)
1,132 km
170 km
Fuel tank / battery
55 l
22 KWh
Fuel tank / battery
60 l
22 KWh Li-ion
Fuel consumption
4 l / 100 km
11 KWh / 100 km
Fuel consumption
5.3 l / 100 km
16.5 KWh / 100 km
Sales price, no subsidy
(+19.6% sales tax)
Battery rental
EUR 16,400
EUR 21,2001)
Sales price, no subsidy
(+19.6% sales tax)
Battery rental
1) ~+25% ∆ to ICE
EUR 16,000
EUR
20,7001)
EUR 79/month2)
EUR 89/month3)
2) 36 months, up to 15,000 km/year 3) 36 months. from 20,000 to 25,000 km/year
Source: ITF; Renault; Roland Berger
LABORA-Lisboa-16-10-2014.pptx
7
BEV's can be a positive business case in commercial usage even today –
Private only for "early adaptors"
Lower operating costs make BEV an option for esp. delivery vehicles
Passenger cars (5-seat sedan)
Commercial vehicles (2-seat LCV)
Selected model
Diesel
Clio Authentique
5P dCi 75 eco
Battery Electric
Zoe Z.E.
Selected model
Diesel
Kangoo Gd Volume
Confort dCi 85
Battery Electric
Kangoo Maxi Z.E.
Purchase cost [EUR] w/subsidy
15,800
15,700
Purchase cost [EUR] w/subsidy
16,400
16,200
Oil cost of fuel
Battery cost [EUR 79/month]
Other fuel costs
Electricity cost [EUR]
Fuel taxes
Electricity taxes [EUR]
3,620
10,540
10,249
11,874
983
1,190
2,501
3,807
3,117
444
Oil cost of fuel
Battery cost [EUR 75 month]
Other fuel costs
Electricity cost [EUR]
Fuel taxes
Electricity taxes [EUR]
8,827
1,420
Add. repair costs
Electric vehicle subsidiary [EUR]
778
5,000
Add. repair costs
Electric vehicle subsidiary [EUR]
778
5,000
Total lifetime usage cost [EUR]
24,199
29,074
Total lifetime usage cost [EUR]
38,755
34,501
4,875
Additional consumer cost
[vehicle life]
Additional consumer cost
[vehicle life]
-4,254
For details reg. underlying assumptions: see: IInternational Transport Forum: ELECTRIC VEHICLES REVISITED: COSTS, SUBSIDIES AND PROSPECTS; Discussion Paper No. 2012-O3
Source: ITF 2012; Roland Berger
LABORA-Lisboa-16-10-2014.pptx
8
Tesla's promotes that it's Supercharger program provides electricity "for
free" and "for life" to promote it's sales
• Major routes / highway will be
covered with Superchargers – in
Europe, within the next year
• Currently globally 202 stations,
>500 end of 2015
• In Europe: 70 currently, ~ 100
stations end of year, ~150 end of
first quarter
• Delivers DC power directly to the
battery, bypassing battery charge
equipment.
Open now
Source: Tesla, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants/s
• Selected stations utilize canopies
with solar panels to offset energy
use
Open 2015
LABORA-Lisboa-16-10-2014.pptx
9
In the long-term, PHEVs and EVs used for short-range trips will become
TCO competitive in Europe as battery costs decline
TCO comparison 2025 EU1) (Example C-segment car) and propulsions shares
[% of sales EU27]
USD/100 mi
37.7
38
210 mi
(340 km)
range
36
34
25%
32
30
28
100%
6%
27.6
26.8
27.0
26.7
26.6
24
23.7
22
5%
64%
30% e-drive
26
~ 6.2
mio
cars
80% e-drive
23.3
90 mi (150
km) range
2021
0
Gasoline
Diesel
Gasoline
micro
hybrid
Diesel
micro
hybrid
PHEV
EV
EV
HEV/PHEV/REEV
CNG
Diesel/gas engines
1) Only considering powertrain and fuel/consumption costs; Assumptions: 150,000 km/10 years lifetime, 15,000 km mileage p.a. (11,000 km short and 20 x 200 km long, consumption acc. to
today's NEDC, fuel cost 1.7 EUR/l, energy cost 0.25 EUR/kWh
Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
LABORA-Lisboa-16-10-2014.pptx
10
Contact and further information:
Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart
Senior Partner
Telefon: +49 (160) 7447421
E-Mail:
[email protected]

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