THE QUEST FOR 100% SELF-CONSUMPTION © Courtsy of SunPower Corp. Valérick CASSAGNE – TOTAL - New Energies IN A NUTSHELL 60% ● ● ● ● ● ● Revenue : 189.5 B€ Net income : 10.7 B€ Organic investment 21.3 B€ R&D : 7.1 B$ over 4 years Operating in 130 countries 98 800 employees ● ● ● ● Revenue : 2.5 B$ Net income : 41.7 M€ 1 GW/yr capacity 5 000 employees ● 5th ranked international oil and gas company ● Active in photovoltaics since 1983 The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 ● 21% modules efficiency 2 MOTIVATIONS FOR SELF-CONSUMPTION ● Financial reason - PV is an investment return on investment - Feed in Tariff Selfconsumption - Revenue : Subsidies Savings : buy less (expensive) electricity ● Energy autonomy - Value ? ● Regulation - EEG, other countries - 2020 EU building directives ? ● 100% self-consumption quest - 100%¨PV production consumed ? - 100% consumption covered by PV ? The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 3 SELF-CONSUMPTION DEFINITION PV self-consumption is real-time production/consumption. Inverter 10556 5250 28600 Self-consumption : 10556 – 5250 = 5256 kWh The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 4 Power (W) CONSUMPTION PROFILES 2500 Grid injection 2000 Self-Consumption Grid consumption 1500 1000 500 PV prod Consum Total consumption = Self Consumption + Grid consumption Total PV production = Self Consumption + Grid injection The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 5 23:00 22:00 21:00 20:00 19:00 18:00 17:00 16:00 15:00 14:00 13:00 12:00 11:00 10:00 09:00 08:00 07:00 06:00 05:00 04:00 03:00 02:00 01:00 00:00 0 Power (W) 250 SELF-CONSUMPTION RATIO 200 Saturday Winter 01/11-20/03 Sunday Winter 01/11-20/03 Weekday Winter 01/11-20/03 Saturday Summer 15/05-14/09 Sunday Summer 15/05-14/09 Weekday Summer 15/05-14/09 Saturday Interseason 21/03-14/05 and 15/09-31/10 Sunday Interseason 21/03-14/05 and 15/09-31/10 Weekday Interseason 21/03-14/05 and 15/09-31/10 150 Effect of PV power size Percentage (%) 100 100.0% 50 Selfconsumption/Total consumption Selfconsumption / Consumption 90.0% 0 0:00 3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00 Autoconsumption / PV production Selfconsumption/Total PV production 80.0% Storage • ~ 15 kWh x safe days or over size PV • Strong seasons effect • Competitivity >2018 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 PV power (kWp) 100 kWp Ex: Residential Germany, consumption = 4.5 MWh/yr The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 6 15:00 18:00 21:00 0:00 No grid parity = no sustainable selfconsumption economy 7 Looses FiT fade SC Margin Margin Net metering SC Margin Margin The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 SC Margin Self-consum incitation SC Margin Grid parity SC Bonus Historical Margin Margin 0 Price of electricity FiT PV LCOE Price of electricity + SC bonus Margin €/kWh ECONOMICAL PARAMETERS Final scheme CASE STUDY : GERMANY RESIDENTIAL 35 Power (W) 200 30 Optimum effect Saturday Winter 01/11-20/03 Sunday Winter 01/11-20/03 Weekday Winter 01/11-20/03 Saturday Summer 15/05-14/09 Sunday Summer 15/05-14/09 Weekday Summer 15/05-14/09 Saturday Interseason 21/03-14/05 and 15/09-31/10 Sunday Interseason 21/03-14/05 and 15/09-31/10 Weekday Interseason 21/03-14/05 and 15/09-31/10 • Still good returns thanks to - high electricity price 150 - Low system costs • Optimum at low power (1-2 kWp vs. standard 6-8 kWp in Germany) 100 25 50 20 0 0:00 3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 15 10 21:00 IRR on Capital Employed (%) €/kWh 250 20% 18% 0:00 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 5 Assumptions • 4.5 MWh/yr household • No Time Of Use price • No heater, no water heater The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 IRR 100% Equity IRR Debt fin 4.0% IRR loan4.0% 25yr 4% 2% 0% 0 2 4 6 8 8 10 12 PV power (kWp) CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOUR IMPACT 12 a.m. 100.0% 90.0% Selfconsumption / Consumption 12h 80.0% Selfconsumption / PV production 12h Selfconsumption / Consumption 3h 70.0% Selfconsumption / PV production 3h 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% IRR on Capital Employed (%) 3 a.m. 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% Wash 3 A.M 6.0% 4.0% 20.0% Wash 12 A.M 2.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 2 4 PV and prosumers– 06/03/2014 6 8 10 PV system size (kWp) 0 1 2 3 4 9 5 6 PV system size (kWp) SELFCONSUMPTION COVERAGE 250 250 200 (W) Power(a.u.) Power (W) Power(a.u.) Power Saturday Winter 01/11-20/03 Sunday Winter 01/11-20/03 Weekday Winter 01/11-20/03 Saturday Summer 15/05-14/09 Sunday Summer 15/05-14/09 Weekday Summer 15/05-14/09 Saturday Interseason 21/03-14/05 and 15/09-31/10 Sunday Interseason 21/03-14/05 and 15/09-31/10 Weekday Interseason 21/03-14/05 and 15/09-31/10 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0:00 3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 Residential 0:00 0 0:00 Saturday Winter 01/11-20/03 Sunday Winter 01/11-20/03 Weekday Winter 01/11-20/03 Saturday Summer 15/05-14/09 Sunday Summer 15/05-14/09 Weekday Summer 15/05-14/09 Saturday Interseason 21/03-14/05 and 15/09-31/10 Sunday Interseason 21/03-14/05 and 15/09-31/10 Weekday Interseason 21/03-14/05 and 15/09-31/10 3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00 15:00 Commercial Sources: Total, E-on The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 10 18:00 21:00 0:00 BUSINESS CASE : SUPERMARKET Ratio (%) ● kWp/kWh consumed 100% Selfconsumption / Consumption residential 90% Selfconsumption / PV production residential 80% Selfconsumption / Consumption Commercial 70% Selfconsumption / PV production Commercial 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0.0 0.5 The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 PV power (kWp/MWhcons) 11 PRODUCE ON THE ROOF, CONSUME UNDER THE ROOF ● Range of production : electricity consumption per square meter Consumption kWh/m2/yr Data Center 3000-7000 Industry 100-1000 Supermarket 400-800 Cold Warehouse 200-400 Hospital* 80-100 School * 25-35 Sport hall 15-35 Farm 1-100 Warehouse 3-30 * multi-floors 250 kWh/m2/yr 500 kWh/m2/yr 1000 kWh/m2/yr 0 PV production kWh/m2 Germany 100-230 France 130-315 Italy - Spain 160-360 Sources: Total, Ademe The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 12 BUSINESS CASE : SUPERMARKET IN MUNCHEN Module Efficiency Roof coverage 13% 50% 108% 161% 13% 50% 108% 161% 16% 40% 87% 131% 16% 40% 87% 131% 21% 31% 66% 100% 21% 31% 66% 100% 14% 12% 10% 800 000 € 700 000 € 600 000 € 500 000 € 8% 400 000 € 6% 91% PV SC 30% coverage 4% 300 000 € 200 000 € IRR 100% Equity IRR Debt fin 4.0% IRR loan4.0% 25yr 2% NVP0@0% PBT 100 000 € -€ 0% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 PV power (kWp) Supermarket: surface=1000m2, consumption =500 kWh/m2/yr The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 13 200 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Pay back time (years) Roof coverage NPV0@0(€) IRR on Capital Employed (%) Module Efficiency 250 300 PV power (kWp) BUSINESS CASE : HOSPITAL IN NAPOLI Module Efficiency Roof coverage 13% 69% 123% 161% 13% 69% 123% 161% 16% 56% 100% 131% 16% 56% 100% 131% 21% 42% 76% 100% 21% 42% 76% 100% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 93% PV SC 39% coverage 8% 6% 2% 10 1 400 000 € 9 8 1 200 000 € 7 1 000 000 € 6 800 000 € 5 600 000 € 4 3 400 000 € IRR 100% Equity IRR Debt fin 4.0% IRR loan4.0% 25yr 4% 1 600 000 € NVP0@0% PBT 200 000 € -€ 0% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 PV power (kWp) 2 1 0 0 50 100 150 Hospital: 7 floors, surface=7000m2, consumption =90 kWh/m2/yr The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 Pay back time (years) Roof coverage NPV0@0(€) IRR on Capital Employed (%) Module Efficiency 14 200 250 300 PV power (kWp) TO CONCLUDE 100% self-consumption quest ● 100% consumption covered by PV - Need absolutely storage - Large PV + large storage for winter Economically sustainable > 2018 ● 100% PV production self-consumed - Residential : small PV system, small consumption coverage - Commercial / industrial: limitation by roof size ! ● Reasonable optimum - Residential : ~ 1kWp/MWh consummed, 50%/50% - Industrial/commercial : Optimization of roof, 90%/40% - Share/sell extra energy thnaks to the grid - Partnership • DSOs • Neighbors consumers The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 15 COUNTRIES AT GRID PARITY – RESIDENTIAL Ratio electricity price /LCOE PV >110% 90-110% 80-90% <80% Sources: Total, Eurostat The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 17 COUNTRIES AT GRID PARITY – COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL Ratio electricity price /LCOE PV >110% 90-110% 80-90% <80% Sources: Total, Eurostat The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 18 Electricity costs (€/kWh) LATER GRID PARITY FOR COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL PV 0.35 0.30 0.25 VAT Elec. Taxes Energy + services 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Sources: Eurostat The quest for 100% self-consumption – V. Cassagne - 22/09/2014 19
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