Financial Model for a Tree Breeding Program (TBP) with Teak Juan Luis Lopez – Associate Director Camcore - NCSU Third World Teak Conference Guayaquil, Ecuador, May 11 – 15, 2015 Content • Importance of a tree breeding program (TBP) • The way we work on a TBP in Camcore with our members • The tree breeding model for teak The oldest Teak tree in the world Ton Sak Yai National park in Thailand 1500 years of age Seed provenances and sources + Provenances > Genetic Diversity + Genetic Diversity > Variability + Variability > Genetic Gain 8 12 16 2 12 22 Genetic Improvement Process The traditional process of tree breeding takes us to new generations of germoplasm with greater productivity www4.ncsu.edu/.../lnmay9702.htm What is better? This? Or this? Fourteen-year old P. taeda planting without genetic improvement. NC-USA Ramas laterales gruesas Bifurcación Fourteen-year old P. taeda planting with tree improvement – NCSU - USA Gmelina arborea plantings in Indonesia Without tree improvement With tree improvement What is better? This? McKeand 2010 What is better? Or this? McKeand 2010 Pine Foliage Damage (PFD) Phytophthora pinifolia attacking P. radiata in Chile From: A. Durán et al 2008. Plant Pathology. P. radiata is very susceptible to pitch canker (Fusarium circinatum). The disease is mostly found in the nursery, but occasionally it is found in adult trees in plantations. Pinus caribaea - very susceptible to frost Frost resistance among different P. patula families in South Africa Wood quality P. taeda P. tecunumanii P. elliottii Lack of adaptation of a species to environmental conditions Lack of adaptation of a species to environmental conditions Tree breeding strategy Long-term tree improvement Short-term veget. propag. • Provenance/progeny trials • Plus tree selections in plantations • Best tree, family and provenance selection • Seed orchards • Controlled pollination and hybrids • Advanced generations • Rooted cuttings • Clone trials in several sites • Propagation • Clonal plantations Tree improvement Seed collections Teak tree selected in Tanzania Drying, packing and distributing seeds Seedling production for Camcore provenance/progeny trials in Mexico Tree improvement Camcore collections: 336 families and 12 sources & provenances Three-year old Camcore Teak provenance / progeny trial in Colombia Four-year old Camcore Teak provenance / progeny trial in Guatemala Tree improvement CAMCORE runs sophisticated BLP/BLUP analyses in all sites of the trials to select the best trees. Tectona grandis in Refocosta - Colombia Results caribaea provenance trials Gananciafor (enPinus volumen) de PinoCamcore Caribe Evaluado en los Ensayos in almost 100 sites de CAMCORE Country Map Provenance Guatemala 10 Poptún Brazil Colombia Venezuela Foxt Gain Fams Trials Gain Fams Trials Gain Fams Trials 33 3.6 55 11 2.8 16 1 0.0 50 5 53 Araslaya -3.3 Culmí -0.7 Dursuna -1.5 El Porvenir -10.0 Gualjoco 4.3 Isla de Guanaja 9.0 La Brea -0.3 Limón 7.1 Los Limones 0.1 Pinalejo -5.5 Puerto Lempira 3.6 San Patricio -5.0 S. Ped. de Catacamas -1.7 Santa Cruz de Yojoa -4.8 Zacapa -2.4 21 38 14 11 25 98 15 38 48 27 17 27 33 20 27 3 5 2 3 6 7 2 3 14 8 2 8 8 6 4 -2.0 -1.2 6.5 -12.2 6.5 0.6 0.1 11.9 -0.3 -4.7 0.5 -5.0 -2.8 -3.4 -2.9 1 . 7 7 8 34 . . 8 . . . . 9 . 1 . 1 1 1 1 . . 1 . . . . 1 . -1.8 -2.3 2.8 -9.9 2.9 7.9 0.6 23.5 0.8 -6.6 -2.3 -7.9 -5.4 -3.9 -5.0 . 16 5 6 26 52 16 39 53 30 5 35 34 19 19 . 2 1 1 4 3 2 3 7 3 1 3 3 4 2 56 30 44 21 39 38 34 30 23 18 49 26 18 38 31 3.1 1.9 14 16 2 2 2.1 1.4 . . . . 2.3 1.6 . . . . . . Honduras 12 13 14 16 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Nicaragua 30 Alamikamba 31 Karawala Australia - Queensland 9.7 14 2 6.3 . . 6.5 . . . S. Africa - SAFRI Zululand 8.4 62 6 8.2 41 1 12.8 36 3 24 Teak grafts that might be used for the establishment of a clonal seed orchard Camcore Teak grafts in Guatemala Tectona grandis clonal seed orchard in Colombia Weeding, fertilization, irrigation, ripping, pest & disease management, and roughing Camcore P. maximinoi second generation trial in Colombia Ensayo clonal de G. arborea en Colombia Gmelina arborea clone x site interaction trial with 50 Camcore selections Teak financial model to the forest level Assumptions & inputs • Real terms, no nominal terms – without inflation • No taxes, no subsidies • Basic model without tree improvement • Tree breeding model including Camcore membership Assumptions & inputs • Rotation age: 20 years • Plantation forestry project starting from the beginning • Management regime – 1st. Thinning at 5 years without profits – 2nd. Thinning at 11 years with profits (53 m3/ha) – Final harvest at 20 years (174 m3/ha) • Mean annual Increment (MAI): 12 m3/ha/year Assumptions & inputs • Planting density: 1,100 trees/ha • Pruning: 3, 6 & 12 years • Fertilization: 1, 2 & 4 years (NPK & NPK+Bo) • Mechanized site preparation • Weed control: Greater emphasis first 4 years • Other costs: Protection & Administration Assumptions & inputs • Cash flow for 2 rotations (40 years) • First year cost (site prep & plant) = US$1610/ha • Maintenance cost (years 2 - 20) ≈ US$200/ha/year • Harvesting cost= US$42/m3 • Timber sold at road side – Price: • Second thinning: $130/m3 • Final cut: $250/m3 Assumptions & inputs (TBP) Genetic trials No. of families Area (ha) Establishment cost ($/ha) Maintenance cost ($/ha/año) 1st. gen. trials 300 22 2,000 450 2nd. gen. trials 130 14 2,000 450 Seed Orchard 100 10 3,000 550 Many clones 16 2,000 450 Clone trials • Genetic gain in MAI: 75% in 40 years • From 12 m3/ha/year to 21 m3/ha/year in 40 years Differences between the two projects No TBP project Yes TBP project • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • No genetic trials No clonal trials No genetic gains Less genetic diversity Greater risk No research staff Lower $ investment Less profitable With genetic trials With clonal trials With genetic gains More genetic diversity Lower risk With research staff Greater $ investment More profitable Outputs • Outputs: • Minimum annual planting area to justify a tree breeding program with Camcore • Net present value (NPV) at different discount rates and internal rate of return (IRR) • Sensitivity of NPV to different variables Outputs MAI (m3/ha/year) Discount rate (%) Minimum annual planting Total area of the area to justify the TBP with project in 20 years Camcore (Ha) (Ha) 12 8 230 4,600 10 338 6,760 12 493 9,860 Outputs Forestry company planting 1,000 ha/year Total project size = 20,000 ha MAI (m3/ha/año) Discount rate (%) 12 8 10 111 55 12 26 Project NPV (million US$) Outputs Questions?
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