Office Snapshot Q3 2016

MARKETBEAT
Office Snapshot Q3 2016
Tokyo
Economy
TOKYO OFFICE
Japan’s GDP expanded modestly by 0.7% on an annualized
basis in the second quarter of 2016. The weaker growth
compared to the previous quarter was mainly caused by the
sharp appreciation of the yen. During the third quarter, the job
market remained tight as the unemployment rate remained low,
hovering at 3.1% in August, and the job to applicant ratio
remained well above one. However, the Bank of Japan (BOJ)
continued to struggle to reach its 2% inflation target as the Core
CPI measure declined further. Prime Minister Abe announced a
JPY13.5 trillion stimulus package in August, while the BOJ
shifted its monetary policy to focus on yield curve control.
Although their effects are uncertain thus far, both measures are
expected to buoy the economy.
Economic Indicators
Q1 15
Q2 16
GDP Growth
2.1%
0.7%
CPI Growth
0.0%
-0.4%
Unemployment
3.2%
3.2%
12-Month
Forecast
CBD Grade A Office Market Indicators
Q2 16
Net Rent
Q3 16
12-Month
Forecast
JPY29,463 JPY29,514
Vacancy Rate
4.51%
4.35%
Rent excludes CAM charges
Market Overview
CBD Grade A Office Rent & Vacancy Rate
35,000
7%
30,000
6%
25,000
5%
20,000
4%
15,000
3%
10,000
2%
5,000
1%
0
0%
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Rent (JPY, tsubo/month)
Vacancy Rate (%)
During the third quarter, no new major properties opened
although several properties under 5,000 tsubo were completed.
The grand openings of Sumitomo Fudosan Roppongi Grand
Tower and Kyobashi Edogrand are expected next quarter.
Rent excludes CAM charges
CBD Grade A Office Supply Pipeline
250,000
10-year Historical Average = 94,000 tsubo
Outlook
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2016
2017
The office market continued to show positive signs. The Tokyo
CBD Grade A vacancy rate continued to decline, sinking to
4.35% in the third quarter, down from 4.51% in the second. No
significant supply was introduced during the quarter, which
contributed to the reduction of the overall vacant space in the
market. The IT and pharmaceutical sectors continued to be
active, as companies such as DMM and Roche Diagnostics were
reported to be moving. Rent showed positive growth as Tokyo
CBD Grade A rent marginally increased to JPY29,514 per tsubo
per month, reflecting tenants wary attitude on office costs.
Despite the slower pace of growth, rents grew 6.37% year-onyear this quarter, which put growth since January at 5.02%.
2018
2019
Economic growth remained moderate, while the stronger yen
and weaker stock market resulted in declining corporate
profitability. If this trend continues, we may see an increase in
corporations looking to optimize their office strategies, reducing
occupancy costs where appropriate. In the near term, limited
new Grade A supply for 2017 combined with low vacancy leaves
few options available. We therefore believe the market will
continue on its current course until the following year as a large
amount of new supply is scheduled for 2018 and 2019. This
supply increase is expected to push up vacancy rates and exert
downward pressure on rental rates.
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MARKETBEAT
Office Snapshot Q3 2016
Tokyo
MARKET
VACANCY RATE
Tokyo CBD 5-kus (5 wards)
4.35%
GRADE A RENT
JPY/TSUBO/MO
JPY/SQM/MO
US$/SF/MO
EUR/SF/MO
JP29,514
JPY8,928
US$8.2
€7.31
US$/JPY = 100.91; €/JPY = 113.41 as at 23 September 2016, Rent excludes CAM charges
Construction Completions
PROPERTY
SUBMARKET
GFA (SQM)
GFA (TSUBO)
COMPLETION DATE
Otemachi Financial City Grand Cube
Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku
193,800
58,624
Apr 2016
Tokyo Garden Terrace Kioicho Kioi Tower
Kioicho, Chiyoda-ku
147,000
44,467
May 2016
Significant Projects Under Construction
PROPERTY
SUBMARKET
GFA (SQM)
GFA (TSUBO)
COMPLETION DATE
Sumitomo Fudosan Roppongi Grand Tower
Roppongi, Minato-ku
202,500
61,256
Oct 2016
Kyobashi Edogrand
Kyobashi, Chuo-ku
119,050
36,012
Oct 2016
Sophia Tower
Kojimachi, Chiyoda-ku
39,000
11,797
Dec 2016
Otemachi Park Building
Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku
149,000
45,072
Jan 2017
Ginza 6-chome Project
Ginza, Chuo-ku
147,900
44,739
Jan 2017
経済
4－6月期の実質GDPは年率換算で0.7％増と緩やかな成長であった。円高がさらに進んだことが主に起因し、前期に比べて低い伸びに留まった。労働市場は引き
続き需給が逼迫しており、8月の失業率は3.1％と低く、有効求人倍率も1.37となり、求人数が求職者数より多いことを示す1.0を大きく上回る状態が続いている。消
費者物価指数（生鮮食品を除く総合）は引き続き前年比マイナス圏で推移しており、日銀は2％の物価安定目標の達成に苦戦している。8月上旬、安倍首相は13.5
兆円の財政措置を発表、一方、日銀は新たな金融政策としてイールドカーブ・コントロールの導入を決定した。こうした政策の経済効果は未だ不透明であるが、景気
浮揚となることが期待される。
オフィス市場
2016年第3四半期のオフィス市場では前期同様、空室率下落と賃料上昇が見られた。東京CBDのAグレードオフィスの空室率は前期の4.51％から4.35％に引き続
き下落した。今期は大規模ビルの竣工はなく、空室面積の減少に寄与した。テナント動向は、IT企業と製薬会社が活発であり、今期はDMM、ロシュ・ダイアグノス
ティックスといった企業の移転が報じられた。ITと製薬会社はここ数年オフィス市場の牽引役となっている。一方、第3四半期の賃料は29,514円（月・坪あたり）と、僅
かであるが前期の29,463円から上昇した。テナントは依然オフィスコストに敏感で、慎重な姿勢を見せており、賃料の伸びは緩やかである。しかし、賃料は前年同期
比では6.37％増、また年初からは5.02％の上昇となった。今期竣工した大型ビルはなかったものの、5,000坪以下のビルの竣工は複数見られた。来期には大型プロ
ジェクトの「住友不動産六本木グランドタワー」及び「京橋エドグラン」がグランドオープンを迎える。
見通し
現在の経済成長は力強さに欠け、円高や株式市場の低迷は、企業収益を悪化させている。こうした状況が継続すれば、企業はオフィス戦略の最適化やオフィスコス
ト削減を視野に入れるだろう。2017年は大型ビルの新規供給が少なく、現在の空室率も低いことから、短期的にはテナントの移転先の選択肢が限定的な状況が続く
ものと思われる。しかし、2018年、2019年には供給増が見込まれており、空室率は押し上げられ、賃料も弱含みに転じることが予想される。
About Cushman & Wakefield
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global insights that create significant value for occupiers and investors around the world. Cushman & Wakefield
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services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facilities services (branded C&W Services), global
occupier services, investment management (branded DTZ Investors), tenant representation and valuations &
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Copyright © 2016 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources considered
to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy.
Timothy Gregersen
Manager, Research, Japan
Sanno Park Tower 13F
2-11-1 Nagatacho, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo 100-6113
Tel: +81 3 3596 7079
[email protected]
www.cushmanwakefield.com

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