MARKETBEAT Investment Q3 2016 J…

MARKETBEAT
Investment Q3 2016
Japan
Investment Volumes
Figure 1. Real estate purchasing activity (JPYbn)
Q1
Q2
Q3
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Q4
Figure 2. Real estate purchasing activity by sector (JPYbn)
Total commercial real estate investment volumes (excluding
residential and hotel properties) for Q3 2016 expanded by 11%
quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to JPY532 billion from JPY481 billion
in Q2 2016 (Figure 1). Although the Q3 volumes increased on a
quarterly basis, they sharply fell by 32% on an annual basis. The
total volumes in 2016 to date have only just reached the amount
recorded in H1 2015, highlighting a sluggish market compared to
the past three years when the market saw heightened activity.
Investors continue to be attracted by Japanese property as it
offers a wide yield spread. On the other hand, market yields
continued to compress, contributing to higher pricing, slower
investment decision making among investors and even cases of
deals getting called off. Several property bids also failed to reach
target pricing due to the difference in expected yields between
sellers and buyers.
Property Type
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Office
Industrial
Retail
Other/Unknown
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
The office sector once again remained the most transacted
sector in Q3 2016, accounting for 38% of the total transaction
volume (Figure 2). The logistics sector ranked second and
expanded its share to 30% due to a J-REIT IPO, as well as
several transactions focusing on this sector. The retail sector
followed with a 24% share of total volumes, making the share of
these top three sectors 91%.
Mixed Use
Figure 3. Real estate purchasing activity by purchaser type
(JPYbn, %)
100%
1,000
800
80%
600
60%
400
40%
200
20%
0%
REIT
Corporate
Private Property Company
REIT share (%)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
0
Private Property Vehicle
Quoted Property Company
Other/Unknown
Investor Type
As usual, REITs remained the strongest purchaser in Q3 2016.
They recorded higher figures from Q2 2016, in both absolute
terms and in terms of proportion (Figure 3). The increase was
driven by four new J-REIT listings on the Tokyo Stock Exchange
during the quarter. Among them, the largest was Mitsui Fudosan
Logistics Park, which invests in distribution centers and is the
fourth listed REIT for Mitsui Fudosan. Its initial AUM was
JPY75.5 billion with a portfolio of nine properties across Japan.
Other new J-REITs include Marimo Regional Revitalization REIT,
Oedo Onsen REIT and Sakura Sogo REIT. Sakura Sogo REIT
was formally listed as an A-REIT in Australia under the name of
Galileo Japan Trust but it changed its name and relisted in the
Tokyo market this time around. Its initial AUM was JPY57.3
billion. Thanks to these four IPOs, REITs remained the strongest
net purchasers in Q3, followed by private property vehicles,
which include asset managers and private REITs (Figure 4).
Private property vehicles were the largest net seller. Interestingly,
there were no significant deals by quoted property companies
during the quarter.
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MARKETBEAT
Investment Q3 2016
Japan
Sales
Net position
Figure 5. Real estate purchasing activity by source of capital
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Domestic
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
0%
Q1 2016
J-REITs have benefitted substantially from the negative interest
rate policy since its adoption as it has enabled REITs to reduce
financing costs. However, the market weakened after the BOJ
left its purchase amount unchanged in its July announcement.
That said, the market capitalization of JREITs rose by 1.5% to
JPY 11.8 trillion in Q3 from Q2, due largely to the four IPOs
during the quarter. Although the dividend yield decompressed to
3.55%, the yield spread between J-REIT’s dividends and the
Japanese Government Bond remained 363 bps in Q3, almost
unchanged from Q2 as the JGB yield has also nudged up (Figure
6). There were two reorganizations observed during the quarter
as Daiwa House REIT and Daiwa House Residential merged and
Nomura Master Fund merged with Top REIT. With these
mergers and IPOs, listed J-REITs totaled 56 at the end of Q3
2016.
Purchase
Q4 2015
J-REIT Market
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
Q3 2015
Purchase activities by foreign investors slightly increased in Q3
(Figure 5). Among them, the largest transaction was the
acquisition of Harumi Island Triton Square Office Tower Y by
Idera Capital Management for JPY50 billion. Harumi Island Triton
Square is a large scale redevelopment project comprising of four
office buildings and other facilities and was completed in 2001.
Idera, an affiliate of Fosun Group, acquired a 67.12% of
ownership of Office Tower Y this time. It also purchased Office
Tower W for JPY10.3 billon within the same project in 2015.
Another notable deal was a land transaction in Ginza. Hankyu
Corp purchased a 308 sq m vacant lot in Ginza 3-chome from
apparel company Onward for JPY13.5 billion. The high unit price
of JPY43.8 million per sq m drew market attention,
demonstrating the popularity of prime retail locations.
Figure 4. Real estate purchasing activity by purchase type
Q3 2016 (JPYbn)
Q2 2015
Significant Deals
Foreign
Figure 6. J-REIT market capitalization and yield (JPYbn, %)
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
12,000
Thanks to four J-REIT IPOs as well as several deals over JPY10
billion, total volumes in Q3 increased q-o-q despite a decline
compared to a year ago. Investor interest remains strong,
continuously putting downward pressure on yields. As the Bank
of Japan has shifted its monetary policy to focus on yield curve
control, interest rates will likely maintain current low levels going
forward, in turn keeping property investment attractive compared
to other asset classes. However, the rising property prices
caused by declining property yields are stifling market activities
and may potentially demotivate investors. As demonstrated by
the lower investment volume in 2016 to date, the market
activities are likely to remain subdued despite the strong investor
appetite.
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Outlook
Market capitalization (LHS, JPY bn)
JGB yield (RHS)
Dividend yield (RHS)
Source: J-REITs, Cushman & Wakefield Research
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MARKETBEAT
Investment Q3 2016
Japan
Table 1. Significant deals
PROPERTY NAME
TOWN/CITY
PURCHASER
VENDOR
SECTOR
PRICE (JPY BN)
Harumi Island Triton Square Office
Tower Y (67.12%)
Chuo-ku, Tokyo
Idera Capital Management
Virgo Property YK
Office
50.0
GLP Atsugi II
Aikawacho, Kanagawa
GLP J-REIT
SPC of GLP
Industrial
21.1
Umeda Gate Tower (88.4%)
Kita-ku, Osaka
Activia Properties (REIT)
Office
19.0
GLP MFLP Ichikawa Shiohama
(50%)
Ichikawa City, Chiba
Mitsui Fudosan Logistics
Park (REIT)
Industrial
15.5
GLP MFLP Ichikawa Shiohama
(50%)
Ichikawa City, Chiba
GLP J-REIT
Industrial
15.5
Mitsui Shopping Park LaLaport ShinMisato (50%)
Misato City, Saitama
Frontier REIT
Retail
15.1
United TMK (SPC of Phoenix
Properties)
Ichikawa Shiohama TMK
(SPC of Mitsui Fudosan and
GLP)
Ichikawa Shiohama TMK
(SPC of Mitsui Fudosan and
GLP)
Shin-Misato Development
Three TMK (SPC of Mitsui
Fudosan)
取引額
2016年第3四半期の商業不動産取引額（住宅、ホテルを除く）は前期の4,818億円から11％増の5,327億円となった。取引額は前期比では増加
したが、前年同期比では32％の大幅な下落となった。2016年年初からの取引額は、2015年の1-6月期と同じ水準にようやく到達した。このこと
からも、市場が活況だった過去3年と比べて、2016年の市場が落ち込んでいることが明らかである。不動産投資のスプレッドは高く、投資家に
とって引き続き魅力的である。一方で、利回りはさらに低下しており、価格を高く押し上げている。その結果、投資の意思決定の長期化や、投資
取りやめといった事態が起きており、いくつかの入札では、売り手と買い手の目線の違いが拡大し、不調に終わるという事態を招いている。
セクター種別
今期最も取引されたセクターは引き続きオフィスであり、全体の38％を占めた。インダストリアルセクターが次に続き、今期は物流施設投資特化
型のJ-REITの新規上場と、他にも多くの取引があったため、シェアを30％に拡大した。リテール取引は24％となり、3セクターの占める割合は
91％であった。
投資家種別
今期もREITが相変わらず最大の買い手として市場を牽引し、実額、全体に占めるシェア共、前期に比べて増加した。今期は4件の新規上場が
行われ、REITの取引額を押し上げた。中でも最大規模は物流施設投資特化型の三井不動産ロジスティクスパーク投資法人であり、三井不動産
にとって、4つ目の上場REITである。上場時の資産は国内9物件、755億円であった。その他の新規上場は、マリモ地方創生リート投資法人、大
江戸温泉リート投資法人、そしてさくら総合リート投資法人であった。さくら総合リート（上場時資産：573億円）はこれまでオーストラリアのA-REIT
市場にGalileo Japan Trust として上場していたが、今般、日本市場で新たに上場した。REITは今期もネットベースで最大の買い手となり、非上
場不動産ヴィークル（アセットマネジメント会社、私募REIT等）が続いた。非上場ヴィークルは今期もネットベースで最大の売り手であった。興味
深いことに、今期上場不動産会社による顕著な投資は見られなかった。
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MARKETBEAT
Investment Q3 2016
Japan
主要取引
今期はインバウンド投資が前期に比べて増加した。そのうち、最大の取引はイデラキャピタルマネジメントによる「晴海アイランドトリトンスクエア
オフィスタワーY棟」の取得であり、価格は500億円であった。晴海トリトンスクエアはオフィスビル4棟とその他施設からなる大規模再開発であり、
2001年に完成した。中国、復星集団（フォースン・グループ）傘下のイデラは、今回オフィスタワーY棟の67.12％を取得したが、2015年には同再
開発エリア内の「晴海アイランドトリトンスクエアオフィスタワーW棟」を103億円で既に取得している。今回取得のオフィスタワーY棟の主要テナ
ントである住友商事は、2018年に完成する大手町の再開発物件への移転が決定してる。その他、国内投資家による取引では、阪急電鉄による
銀座3丁目の土地取得が注目を集めた。オンワード所有の308㎡の土地の売却価格は135億円であり、単価にすると坪当たり1億4,400万円を
超える金額であった。
J-REIT市場
J-REIT市場はマイナス金利導入により調達コストの削減が可能になり、恩恵を受けてきた。しかしながら、7月に発表された日銀の新しい金融政
策で、J-REITの買入れペースの増額がなかったことから、市場は弱含みになった。一方で、今期は4件の新規上場があり、時価総額を11.8兆円
に押し上げた。分配金利回りは3.55％に上昇したが、債券の利回りがマイナス圏内で徐々に上昇したことから、スプレッドは前期とほぼ変わらず
363bpsであった。今期は2件のJ-REIT再編が行われ、大和ハウスリートと大和ハウス・レジデンシャルの合併、また、野村不動産マスターファン
ドとトップリートとの合併が見られた。これらの合併と新規上場により、2016年第3四半期末の上場REITは56件となった。
見通し
今期は4件のJ-REIT新規上場や100億円を超える取引が多くあったことから、取引額は昨年に比べて減少したものの、前期からは増加となった。
投資家の投資意欲は堅調で、利回りには引き続き下押し圧力が掛けられている。日銀の金融政策がイールドカーブコントロールの導入による金
利重視へとシフトしたことから、金利は今後も低い水準に維持されることが予想される。こうしたことから、不動産投資の魅力度は、他のアセット
クラスに比べて高い水準を維持することになるだろう。しかしながら、利回り低下による不動産価格の上昇は、投資を鈍らせ、投資家の意欲を低
下させる可能性もある。年初から続く取引額の前年割れに見られるように、投資家の投資意欲に関わらず、市場は弱含みで推移するものと思わ
れる。
Managing Director
Capital Markets
Research
Todd Olson
Yoshiyuki Tanaka
Timothy Gregersen
Managing Director, Japan
Senior Executive Director, Capital Markets Japan
Manager, Research, Japan
+81 3 3596 7050
+81 3 3596 7060
+81 3 3596 7079
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
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Copyright © 2016 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources considered
to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy.
Timothy Gregersen
Manager, Research, Japan
Sanno Park Tower 13F
2-11-1 Nagatacho, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo 100-6113
Tel: +81 3 3596 7079
[email protected]
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