Compact Special Bulletin Failed Coup in Turkey Prepared for Overall Risk Rating Turkey Country Risk Overview Main Question to Be Answered What are the major implications of the attempted coup d’état for the security situation in Turkey? Major Risks High risk of political instability in the country Considerable risk of politically motivated attacks Increasing legal insecurity as mass arrests also target opponents and critics of the AKP-led government who are not directly linked to the putschists www.exop-group.com Intern - Internal 19 July 2016 Page 1 of 4 Compact Special Bulletin Failed Coup in Turkey Recent Developments in Turkey On Friday evening, 15 July 2016, parts of the Turkish military attempted a coup d’état that was focused on occupying key infrastructure in the two major Turkish cities Istanbul and Ankara. Among these strategic positions, the coup plotters were able to temporarily seize two Bosporus bridges and the Atatürk International Airport in Istanbul as well as various government offices and military barracks in Ankara. Additionally, television and broadcasting headquarters were occupied. The putschists were supported by military helicopters and warplanes. However, one of the key elements of the coup plan, to capture President Recep Tayyip Erdogan while he was staying in a holiday resort in Marmaris, failed. Almost simultaneously with the declaration of the putschists that they have taken control of the country, Erdogan called upon his supporters to take to the streets and demonstrate against the coup. Confronted with a massive turnout of supporters of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) as well as police and military units loyal to President Erdogan, many of the insurgent military units surrendered, and the situation was brought back under control on Saturday. At least 265 people were killed and another 1,440 were injured during these events. Temporary curfews and military zones were established in major cities, and the international airports in Ankara and Istanbul remained temporarily closed, with flights being cancelled. Communication was interrupted for several hours. In the meantime, the situation in Ankara and Istanbul has normalised again. However, the country is witnessing an unprecedented wave of mass arrests, targeting not only alleged putschists but also an increasing number of critics and opponents of the AKP-led government not involved in the attempted coup d’état. At least 7,500 people, among them judges, police and military staff, have reportedly been arrested in the aftermath of the failed coup. Assessment Turkey looks back on a long history of both failed and successful coups by the Turkish military, which perceives itself as the preserver of democracy and Kemalist ideals, including secularism and nationalism. The latest coup attempt apparently failed, among various other factors, due to the negative experience the Turkish population has made with (de facto) military rule over the past decades. Although this remains speculation, there are certain indications that the AKP leadership had some knowledge of the coup d’état in advance and were willing to let the putschists proceed with their plans, providing the government with a pretext to massively crack down on its opponents and critics. Outlook Short-Term Outlook Although the security situation has improved again after the turmoil of last weekend, the overall security risks are likely to remain at a considerable level throughout Turkey. The southeast of the country is expected to witness an ongoing high or even extreme risk of armed clashes between the Turkish military and Kurdish militants as well as of terrorist attacks. Additionally, most notably the two major cities Istanbul and Ankara are anticipated to remain strongly affected by terrorism and large-scale public manifestations given the significant political tensions in Turkey. www.exop-group.com Intern - Internal 19 July 2016 Page 2 of 4 Compact Special Bulletin Failed Coup in Turkey There is a possibility that supporters of the coup plotters, including recruits whose whereabouts remain unknown, may attempt to destabilise the security situation with attacks against security forces, politicians or strategic infrastructure. According to various sources, several military helicopters as well as warships appear to remain in the hands of putschists. However, such information may be deliberately spread by the government as a pretext to continue raids against opponents and critics. Additionally, jihadist militants may exploit the situation, most notably the focus of the security forces on hunting down putschists, to plan and carry out terror attacks in the country. Medium-Term Outlook In the medium-term, there is a considerable risk of radicalisation among those parts in Turkish society opposed to the increasingly autocratic rule of President Erdogan. With virtually no option for political participation left, they may either leave the country or turn to other means to fight against the accumulation of power in Erdogan’s hands, including violence. The possible reintroduction of the death penalty and the possible execution of prisoners soon thereafter is likely to further aggravate the political instability in the country. Excessive retaliation against putschists would most probably also result in political tensions between Turkey and Western countries, most notably the European Union. Impact The political developments in Turkey have an immediate impact on business travellers and operations: Repercussions on Freedom of Movement & Accessibility of Sites: Massive demonstrations and security measures, including roadblocks, checkpoints or the temporary blocking of entire neighbourhoods, could significantly restrict the freedom of movement of business travellers. Additionally, offices or other business facilities may become inaccessible, particularly if located in the vicinity of strategic infrastructure, such as government buildings or security installations, or near public squares. Physical or Material Damage: Terrorist attacks, even if not primarily directed against foreign nationals, may physically harm international business travellers who frequent areas and the vicinity of facilities that are exposed to a considerable risk of being targeted, including security installations, government buildings or public transport infrastructure. Business assets may be damaged in such attacks as well. Violent pro- or anti-government protesters may not only harm uninvolved bystanders but also vandalise business infrastructure, such as ground floor offices. Legal Insecurity: International businesses or businessmen partnering in one way or another with Turkish individuals or firms that are under suspicion of being opposed to the government, such as persons and institutions affiliated with the Gülen movement, may also come into the crosshairs of the Turkish judiciary. Foreign business travellers may face arrest and sentence to long jail terms if expressing criticism of the Turkish president or the government or support for Kurdish or other opposition groups. www.exop-group.com Intern - Internal 19 July 2016 Page 3 of 4 Compact Special Bulletin Failed Coup in Turkey Recommendations Travellers are advised to stay vigilant and to avoid large gatherings, public places and strategic targets, as there is a high risk of violent escalations and attacks Take into account additional time at security checks, and make sure to carry along valid identification papers at all times Bear in mind that communication networks may temporarily break down in the wake of a major security event, and consider alternative means of communication Avoid expressing political opinions in public, and re-evaluate your business contacts in Turkey on the background of their political stance towards the Turkish government Given the highly volatile political and security situation, business travellers should closely follow local media and observe local security instructions EXOP is closely monitoring the political and security situation in Turkey. In EXOP’s Global Risk Database, clients can find up-to-date and comprehensive recommendations of our risk analysts on how to adequately respond to the situation described above. If you have travellers or business operations in Turkey and need further information, please do not hesitate to contact us. About EXOP EXOP supports corporations, medium-sized companies, development organisations and authorities with risk management solutions for business activities abroad. The assessment and avoidance of security-relevant and medical risks enable successful business activities in markets with elevated risk potential. Preventive trainings for travellers, country information systems, risk assessments of sites and projects abroad, worldwide situation reporting, 24/7 assistance services, traveller tracking and professional crisis management belong to our core competences. Tel: +49 (0)7531 942 16 16 Email: [email protected] www.exop-group.com Intern - Internal 19 July 2016 Page 4 of 4
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