資料９ ኺฎᝠբ˟ᜭᴾሊἅἳὅἘὊἑὊۀՃ˟Ὁዮ˟ᴾ੩Ј૰ᴾ ኺฎᝠሊỆấẬỦໜᛢ᫆ሁỆếẟềᴾ Ὅٻԧዮᄂᴾ ɼࠗᄂᆮՃᴾ ίἣἨἼἕἁἯἼἉὊἼἇὊἓਃ࢘ὸᴾ ᤠᴾஙᴾᴾแᴾ ᵐᵎᵏᵔ࠰ᵕஉᵐᵎଐᴾ ᴾ Public Policy Research ẔἘὊἰṞṟẕኺฎὉᝠɟ˳ો᪃ỉᙲࣱ῍ҔၲὉͤࡍЎỉ̊ίᵏᵍᵐὸᴾ ேཱྀつᶍ䛸1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝䛾ᆅᇦᕪ 䠄ᕷ⏫ᮧ䠅 ᗋᩘ䛸1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝䛾ᆅᇦᕪ y = 0.1848x + 0.7664 䠄㒔㐨ᗓ┴䠅 (9.4) (26.7) R² = 0.6610 1.20 ᖺ㱋⿵ṇᚋ䛾1ே ᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝䛜 ᅜᖹᆒ䜘䜚䜒㧗䛔 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 ேཱྀᙜ䛯䜚䛾 ᗋᩘ䛜ከ䛔 0.90 0.85 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 䠄ேཱྀ10ேᙜ䛯䜚ᗋᩘ䚸༓ᗋ䠅 2.5 2.0 䠄1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝䛾ᆅᇦᕪᣦᩘ䚸ᅜᖹᆒ䠙1䠅 䠄1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝䛾ᆅᇦᕪᣦᩘ䚸ᅜᖹᆒ䠙1䠅 1.25 1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝䛾ᐇ⦼䛜䚸 ᖺ㱋ู䛻ᅜᖹᆒ䛾་⒪㈝ 䛷⿵ṇ䛧䛯་⒪㈝䜘䜚䜒㧗䛔 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝䛾ᐇ⦼䛜䚸 ᖺ㱋ู䛻ᅜᖹᆒ䛾་⒪㈝ 䛷⿵ṇ䛧䛯་⒪㈝䜘䜚䜒ప䛔 0.6 3.0 0.4 0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 䠄ேཱྀつᶍ䚸༓ே䚸ᑐᩘ⾲♧䠅 䠄ὀ䠅䛂1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝䛾ᆅᇦᕪᣦᩘ䛃䛿䚸䛣䛣䛷䛿ᕷ⏫ᮧᅜಖ䛻㛵䛩䜛䜒䛾䛷䚸ᙜヱᆅᇦ䛾1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝䛻䛴䛔䛶ேཱྀ䛾ᖺ㱋ᵓᡂ䛾┦㐪䛻䜘䜛ᙳ㡪䜢⿵ṇ䛧䚸ᣦᩘ䠄ᅜᖹᆒ=1䠅䛧䛯 㻌 㻌 㻌 䜒䛾䚹2013ᖺ䛾್䠄ཎฟᡤ䛿ཌ⏕ປാ┬䡞་⒪㈝䛾ᆅᇦᕪศᯒ䡟䠅䚹 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㒔㐨ᗓ┴䠖ᆅᇦᕪᣦᩘ䠙௬䛻ᙜヱᆅᇦ䛾ຍධ⪅䛾ᖺ㱋ᵓᡂ䛜ᅜᖹᆒ䛸ྠ䛨䛰䛳䛯䛸䛧䛯ሙྜ䛾1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝䠋ᅜᖹᆒ䛾1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝ 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 ᕷ⏫ᮧ㻌 䠖ᆅᇦᕪᣦᩘ䠙ᙜヱᆅᇦ䛾1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝䠋௬䛻ᙜヱᆅᇦ䛾ᖺ㱋㝵⣭ู1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝䛜ᅜᖹᆒ䛸ྠ䛨䛰䛳䛯䛸䛧䛯ሙྜ䛾1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝ 㻌 㻌 㻌 ᕥᅗ⾲䛾ᅇᖐᘧ䛾ᣓᘼෆ䛿t್䚹ྑᅗ⾲䛾ᶓ㍈䛾ேཱྀつᶍ䛿2010ᖺ䛾್䚹 䠄ฟᡤ䠅ෆ㛶ᗓ䛂⤒῭䞉㈈ᨻ䛸ᬽ䜙䛧䛾ᣦᶆ䛂ぢ䛘䜛䛃 䝕䞊䝍㞟䛃➼䜘䜚⥲◊సᡂ Copyright © 2016 Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. All rights reserved. 1 ẔἘὊἰṞṟẕኺฎὉᝠɟ˳ો᪃ỉᙲࣱ῍ҔၲὉͤࡍЎỉ̊ίᵐᵍᵐὸᴾ ≉ᐃデཷデ⋡䛸1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝䛾ᆅᇦᕪ 䠄㒔㐨ᗓ┴䠅 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 2,500 䠄ேཱྀ10ேᙜ䛯䜚ධ㝔ཷ⒪⋡䚸ே䠅 y = -0.5578x + 1.2821 䠄-2.7䠅 䠄13.5䠅 R² = 0.1398 1.20 y = -2539.7x + 2358.1 䠄-2.9䠅 䠄5.8䠅 R² = 0.1552 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0.85 0.80 0 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 30% 40% 䠄≉ᐃデཷデ⋡䠅 80 እ᮶ y = -0.0129x + 65.486 䠄-3.4䠅 䠄13.9䠅 R² = 0.2068 70 60% 70% ᗣព㆑䛸⤒῭ᣦᩘ 䠄㒔㐨ᗓ┴䠅 80 ධ㝔 50% 䠄≉ᐃデཷデ⋡䠅 ཷ⒪⋡䛸⤒῭ᣦᩘ 䠄㒔㐨ᗓ┴䠅 y = -0.0079x + 95.427 䠄-3.5䠅 䠄7.3䠅 R² = 0.2123 70 60 y = 207.44x - 28.985 䠄3.5䠅 䠄-1.3䠅 R² = 0.2158 60 䠄⤒῭ᣦᩘ䠅 䠄⤒῭ᣦᩘ䠅 䠄1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝䛾ᆅᇦᕪᣦᩘ䚸ᅜᖹᆒ䠙1䠅 1.25 ≉ᐃデཷデ⋡䛸ධ㝔ཷ⒪⋡ 䠄㒔㐨ᗓ┴䠅 50 40 50 40 30 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 䠄ὀ1䠅䛂1ேᙜ䛯䜚་⒪㈝䛾ᆅ ᇦᕪᣦᩘ䛃䛿䚸䛣䛣䛷䛿ᕷ ⏫ᮧᅜಖ䛻㛵䛩䜛䜒䛾䛷䚸 ᙜヱᆅᇦ䛾1ேᙜ䛯䜚་ ⒪㈝䛻䛴䛔䛶ேཱྀ䛾ᖺ 㱋ᵓᡂ䛾┦㐪䛻䜘䜛ᙳ㡪 䜢⿵ṇ䛧䚸ᣦᩘ䠄ᅜ ᖹᆒ䠙1䠅䛧䛯䜒䛾䚹2013 ᖺ䛾್䚹 䠄ὀ2䠅≉ᐃデཷデ⋡䛿䚸≉ ᐃデᑐ㇟⪅ᩘ䠄᥎ィ ್䠅䛻༨䜑䜛≉ᐃᗣデ ᰝཷデ⪅ᩘ䛾ྜ䚹 2013ᖺ䛾್䚹 䠄ὀ3䠅ධ㝔ཷ⒪⋡䛸እ᮶ཷ⒪ ⋡䛿2014ᖺ䛾್䚹 䠄ὀ4䠅䛂⤒῭ᣦᩘ䛃䛿䚸㎰ᴗ⏘ ฟ㢠䚸〇㐀ရฟⲴ㢠➼䚸 ༺㈍㢠䚸ᑠ㈍㢠䚸 ᴗᡤᩘ䚸ᚑᴗ⪅ᩘཬ䜃 ㄢ⛯ᑐ㇟ᡤᚓ䠄⣡⛯⩏ົ ⪅ᩘ୍ேᙜ䛯䜚䠅䛾7䛴 䛾⤫ィ䝕䞊䝍䛻㛵䛩䜛೫ ᕪ್䜢⟬⾡ᖹᆒ䛧䛶⟬ฟ 䛥䜜䛯2010ᖺ䛾್䠄ෆ㛶 ᗓసᡂ䠅䚹 䠄ὀ5䠅ᗣព㆑䛿䚸ᅜẸ⏕ά ᇶ♏ㄪᰝ䛻䛚䛔䛶䚸⮬ศ 䛾ᗣ䜢䛂䜘䛔䛸ᛮ䛳䛶䛔 䜛䛃䠄䛂䜘䛔䛃䛸䛂䜎䛒䜘䛔䛃 䛾ྜィ䠅䛾ྜ䠄2013ᖺ 䛾್䠅䚹 䠄ὀ6䠅䛭䜜䛮䜜䛾ᅇᖐᘧ䛾ᣓ ᘼෆ䛿t್䚹 䠄ฟᡤ䠅ෆ㛶ᗓ䛂⤒῭䞉㈈ᨻ䛸ᬽ 䜙䛧䛾ᣦᶆ䛂ぢ䛘䜛䛃 䝕䞊䝍㞟䛃➼䜘䜚⥲ ◊సᡂ 30 30% 32% 34% 䠄ேཱྀ10ேᙜ䛯䜚ཷ⒪⋡䚸ே䠅 Copyright © 2016 Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. All rights reserved. 36% 38% 40% 42% 44% 䠄ᗣព㆑䠅 2 ẔἘὊἰṞṟẕኺฎểʴӝѣ७῍ࠊထКݩஹਖ਼ᚘʴӝầᅆՐẴỦẮểᴾ ⌧ᅾ䛾⤒῭ᣦᩘ䛸ᑗ᮶䛾㧗㱋⋡ ⌧ᅾ䛾⤒῭ᣦᩘ䛸ᑗ᮶䛾⥲ேཱྀ 140 80 70 䠄2040ᖺ䛾65ṓ௨ୖேཱྀྜ䚸䠂䠅 䠄2040ᖺ䛾᥎ィேཱྀ䚸2010ᖺ=100䠅 120 y = -0.4406x + 63.205 䠄-26.5䠅 䠄73.0䠅 R² = 0.2942 100 80 60 40 y = 1.1879x + 11.411 䠄32.9䠅 䠄6.1䠅 R² = 0.3918 20 0 30 40 50 60 70 60 50 40 30 20 80 30 40 50 䠄⤒῭ᣦᩘ䚸2010ᖺ䠅 ⌧ᅾ䛾⤒῭ᣦᩘ䛸ᑗ᮶䛾ᖺᑡேཱྀ 60 40 y = 0.9031x + 8.89 䠄24.9䠅 䠄4.7䠅 R² = 0.2696 0 䠄2040ᖺ䛾᥎ィ㧗㱋⪅ேཱྀ䚸2010ᖺ=100䠅 80 䠄2040ᖺ䛾᥎ィ⏕⏘ᖺ㱋ேཱྀ䚸2010ᖺ=100䠅 䠄2040ᖺ䛾᥎ィᖺᑡேཱྀ䚸2010ᖺ=100䠅 100 120 100 80 60 40 y = 1.0183x + 8.5303 䠄28.7䠅 䠄4.6䠅 R² = 0.3291 20 40 50 60 䠄⤒῭ᣦᩘ䚸2010ᖺ䠅 70 80 30 40 50 60 䠄⤒῭ᣦᩘ䚸2010ᖺ䠅 70 300 250 200 150 100 y = 2.6883x - 27.93 䠄34.8䠅 䠄-7.0䠅 R² = 0.4191 50 0 0 30 80 350 140 120 70 ⌧ᅾ䛾⤒῭ᣦᩘ䛸ᑗ᮶䛾㧗㱋⪅ேཱྀ ⌧ᅾ䛾⤒῭ᣦᩘ䛸ᑗ᮶䛾⏕⏘ᖺ㱋ேཱྀ 140 20 60 䠄⤒῭ᣦᩘ䚸2010ᖺ䠅 80 30 40 50 60 70 80 䠄⤒῭ᣦᩘ䚸2010ᖺ䠅 䠄ὀ䠅⤒῭ᣦᩘ䛿䚸ᅜ1741ᕷ༊⏫ᮧ䠄䛯䛰䛧ᑗ᮶᥎ィேཱྀ䛜ᚓ䜙䜜䛺䛔⚟ᓥ┴䛾ᕷ⏫ᮧ䜢㝖䛟䠅䛻㛵䛩䜛㎰ᴗ⏘ฟ㢠䚸〇㐀ရฟⲴ㢠➼䚸༺㈍㢠䚸ᑠ㈍㢠䚸ᴗᡤᩘ䚸ᚑᴗ⪅ᩘཬ䜃ㄢ⛯ 㻌 㻌 㻌 ᑐ㇟ᡤᚓ䠄⣡⛯⩏ົ⪅ᩘ୍ேᙜ䛯䜚䠅䛸䛔䛳䛯⤫ィ䝕䞊䝍䛻㛵䛩䜛೫ᕪ್䜢⟬⾡ᖹᆒ䛧䛶⟬ฟ䛥䜜䛯್䠄ෆ㛶ᗓసᡂ䠅䚹䛭䜜䛮䜜䛾ᅇᖐᘧ䛾ᣓᘼෆ䛿t್䚹 䠄ฟᡤ䠅ෆ㛶ᗓ䛂⤒῭䞉㈈ᨻ䛸ᬽ䜙䛧䛾ᣦᶆ䛂ぢ䛘䜛䛃 䝕䞊䝍㞟䛃䚸ᅜ❧♫ಖ㞀䞉ேཱྀၥ㢟◊✲ᡤ䛂᪥ᮏ䛾ᆅᇦูᑗ᮶᥎ィேཱྀ䛃䠄ᖹᡂ25ᖺ3᭶᥎ィ䠅䜘䜚⥲◊సᡂ Copyright © 2016 Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. All rights reserved. 3 ẔἘὊἰṠẕᵐᵓ῍ᵒᵒബỉіࠊئನᡯίᵐᵎᵏᵓ࠰ὸᴾ ྜィ ⏨ᛶ ேཱྀձ ዪᛶ ே ே ே ᑵᴗ⪅ղ ே ே ே ᑵᴗ⋡ղձ! 㸣 㸣 㸣 ࠺ࡕ㠀ṇつࡢ⫋ဨ࣭ᚑᴗဨճ 㠀ṇつᑵᴗ⪅ྜճղ! ே 㸣 ࠺ࡕᐙ࣭⫱ඣ࣭ㆤ➼୧❧ࡋࡸࡍ࠸ࡓࡵ㠀ṇつᑵᴗմ ே ᐙ࣭⫱ඣ➼ࢆ⌮⏤㠀ṇつᑵᴗࡋ࡚࠸ࡿྜմղ! 㸣 ࠺ࡕṇつࡢ⫋ဨ࣭ᚑᴗဨࡢࡀ࡞࠸ࡓࡵ㠀ṇつᑵᴗյ ே ᮏព㠀ṇつྜյճ!ὀ 㸣 ኻᴗ⪅ն ே 㸦ኻᴗ⋡նղն!㸧 㸣 ࠺ࡕኻᴗᮇ㛫ᖺ௨ୖշ 㸦㛗ᮇኻᴗ⪅ྜշն! 㠀ປാຊேཱྀո ே 㸣 ே 㠀ປാຊேཱྀྜոձ! ࠺ࡕᑵᴗᕼᮃ⪅չ 㸣 ே ồ⫋ࡋ࡚࠸࡞࠸ᑵᴗᕼᮃ⪅ྜչո! 㸣 ே 㸣 ே 㸣 ே 㸣 ே 㸣 ே 㸣 ே 㸣 ே 㸣 ே 㸣 ே 㸣 ே 㸣 ே 㸣 ே 㸣 ே 㸣 ே 㸣 ࠺ࡕฟ⏘࣭⫱ඣࡢࡓࡵ㠀ồ⫋պ ே ே ே ࠺ࡕㆤ࣭┳ㆤࡢࡓࡵ㠀ồ⫋ջ ே ே ே ฟ⏘࣭⫱ඣ࣭ㆤ➼ࢆ⌮⏤ồ⫋ࡋ࡚࠸࡞࠸ᑵᴗᕼᮃ⪅ྜպջչ!ὀ 㸣 㸣 㸣 㸦ὀ㸧ճཬࡧչࡣ⌮⏤ヲࢆྵࡴ⥲ᩘ࡛࠶ࡿࡓࡵࠊࡑࡢෆヂྜࡘ࠸࡚⌮⏤ヲࢆ㝖࠸ࡓ⥲ᩘᑐࡍࡿẚ⋡ࢆู㏵ィ⟬ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 㸦ฟᡤ㸧⥲ົ┬ࠕປാຊㄪᰝ㸦ヲ⣽㞟ィ㸧ࠖࡼࡾ⥲◊సᡂ Copyright © 2016 Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. All rights reserved. 4 ᮏ㈨ᩱ䛿ᢞ㈨່ㄏ䜢ពᅗ䛧䛶ᥦ౪䛩䜛䜒䛾䛷䛿䛒䜚䜎䛫䜣䚹㻌 ᮏ㈨ᩱグ㍕䛾ሗ䛿ಙ㢗䛷䛝䜛䛸⪃䛘䜙䜜䜛ሗ※䛛䜙సᡂ䛧䛶䛚䜚䜎䛩䛜䚸䛭䛾ṇ☜ᛶ䚸ᛶ䜢ಖド䛩䜛䜒䛾䛷䛿䛒䜚䜎䛫䜣䚹䜎䛯䚸グ㍕䛥䜜䛯ពぢ䜔ண ➼ 䛿సᡂⅬ䛾䜒䛾䛷䛒䜚ᚋண࿌䛺䛟ኚ᭦䛥䜜䜛䛣䛸䛜䛒䜚䜎䛩䚹㻌 㻔ᰴ䠅⥲◊䛾ぶ♫䛷䛒䜛㻔ᰴ䠅⥲◊䝩䞊䝹䝕䜱䞁䜾䝇䛸ドๆ㻔ᰴ䠅䛿䚸㻔ᰴ䠅ドๆ䜾䝹䞊䝥ᮏ♫䜢ぶ♫䛸䛩䜛ドๆ䜾䝹䞊䝥䛾♫䛷䛩䚹㻌 ෆᐜ䛻㛵䛩䜛୍ษ䛾ᶒ䛿㻔ᰴ䠅⥲◊䛻䛒䜚䜎䛩䚹↓᩿䛷䛾」〇䞉㌿㍕䞉㌿㏦➼䛿䛤㐲៖䛟䛰䛥䛔䚹㻌 Copyright © 2016 Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. All rights reserved.
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