Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr
Global Aviation
Monitor (GAM)
Analysis and Short Term
Outlook of Global, European
and German Air Transport
September 2015
Flughafenwesen
und Luftverkehr
G loba l A viat ion M onitor (GAM)
September 2015
Main Results of Global Air Transport Supply Analysis and Outlook
Background:






Covers about 3,500 airports worldwide
Covers about 850 airlines worldwide
Air transport supply of 2014: More than 33 M flights (non-stop) worldwide, new record value
Busiest month 2015: July with 3.08 M flights
Air traffic increases slowly since April 2013
Forecasting methodology: Time series analysis
Analysis: October 2014 – September 2015
Global




September 2015: 2.9 M flights supplied (+3.3%)
About 5% growth per year before financial crisis 2008/2009, then a rapid decline of more than
9% between February 2008 and February 2009, followed by a rather slow recovery until 2011
(7.2% increase between February 2009 and February 2011). Since 2011, the number of flights
grows only very slowly; stagnation between September 2012 and March 2013, small growth
rates since April 2013
Airports: Heterogeneous development of no. of flights offered; strong growth e.g. at Shanghai
Pudong (+13.6%) or Dubai (+10.6%)
Airlines: Heterogeneous development of no. of flights offered; strong growth e.g. of Aeroflot,
Turkish Airlines and JetBlue; strong decease of United Airlines
World Regions, Europe



Overall small increase since April 2013; in Europe, small traffic increase since July 2013; in
Asia continued growth; no growth in North America
Airports: Heterogeneous developments of no. of flights offered; strong increase at Istanbul
Sabiha Glokcen and Dublin however decline at some airports, e.g. Moscow Domodedovo and
Stockholm Arlanda
Airlines: Heterogeneous developments of flights, some airlines, e.g. Aeroflot and Turkish
Airlines with strong growth, some growth in the low cost segment, e.g. Wizz, Ryanair, easyjet,
germanwings and Vueling (former Lufthansa flights in Germany and Europe are now operated
by germanwings except at Frankfurt and Munich), some airlines, e.g. Air Berlin and Air France
with decrease
Germany


Airports: Some airports, e.g. Hamburg, Stuttgart, Berlin Schoenefeld and some small airports,
with traffic growth; some German airports with downward trend, e.g. Leipzig and Bremen
Airlines: Heterogeneous developments of number of flights offered;
strong growth of e.g. Ryanair, easyjet Germania and Wizz; some airlines, e.g. Air Berlin and
Air France, with decreasing traffic
Outlook: October 2015 – December 2015
Global

For the next few months, a small traffic growth of 3-4% is expected
World Regions, Europe

For the next few months, a small traffic growth of 3-4% is expected
Germany

For the next few month, a small traffic growth of 1-3% is expected
DLR-Global Aviation Monitor
2015-09-24
Page 2 of 6
Flughafenwesen
und Luftverkehr
G loba l A viat ion M onitor (GAM)
September 2015
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Airport
Chicago O'Hare International
Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson Intl
Dallas/Fort Worth Intl
Los Angeles International
Beijing Capital
Denver Intl
Frankfurt International
London Heathrow
Charlotte
Istanbul Ataturk
Shanghai Pudong International
Amsterdam
Paris Charles de Gaulle
Houston George Bush Intercontinental
Tokyo Haneda
New York J F Kennedy International
Toronto Lester B Pearson Intl
Jakarta Soekarno-Hatta
Guangzhou
San Francisco International
Dubai
Munich International
Hong Kong International
Seattle/Tacoma International
Philadelphia International
09/2015
36.016
35.204
26.768
24.746
24.123
21.214
20.739
20.312
20.195
19.856
19.749
19.608
19.549
18.432
17.854
17.628
17.475
17.444
16.788
16.464
16.389
16.291
16.079
15.911
15.882
Growth rate
-5,5
1,4
-2,1
1,2
-1,6
-8,1
0,3
1,8
-1,1
9,0
13,6
2,6
1,8
-4,3
0,8
2,8
2,9
3,7
-1,3
-3,2
10,6
1,6
4,0
13,5
-2,3
Tab. 1: Number of monthly Take-offs at
the biggest Airports in the World
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Airport
Frankfurt International
London Heathrow
Istanbul Ataturk
Amsterdam
Paris Charles de Gaulle
Munich International
Madrid Barajas
Rome Fiumicino
Barcelona
London Gatwick
Moscow Sheremetyevo International
Copenhagen
Paris Orly
Zurich
Oslo
Vienna
Moscow Domodedovo
Stockholm Arlanda
Brussels
Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen
Dusseldorf International
Palma Mallorca
Dublin
Berlin Tegel
Manchester International
09/2015
20.739
20.312
19.856
19.608
19.549
16.291
15.468
14.651
13.123
12.492
10.979
10.911
10.585
10.394
10.304
10.198
10.113
9.679
9.608
9.531
9.327
9.194
8.269
8.090
7.839
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Airport
Frankfurt International
Munich International
Dusseldorf International
Berlin Tegel
Hamburg
Stuttgart
Cologne/Bonn K.A.
Berlin Schoenefeld
Hanover
Nuremberg
Bremen
Leipzig/Halle
Dresden
Frankfurt Hahn
Dortmund
Dusseldorf Niederrhein
Munster
Karlsruhe/Baden Baden
Friedrichshafen
Memmingen
Saarbrucken Ensheim
Paderborn
Westerland
Mannheim
Erfurt
09/2015
20.739
16.291
9.327
8.090
6.414
4.751
4.268
2.530
2.369
1.762
1.195
993
894
836
615
588
490
474
415
374
334
324
190
80
71
Growth rate
0,3
1,6
1,7
2,0
3,8
7,1
2,5
10,7
0,0
-0,1
-8,0
-5,1
-8,0
-1,2
-8,8
0,7
9,9
32,4
17,6
42,2
21,5
-0,9
11,1
81,8
9,2
Tab. 3: Number of monthly Take-offs
at the biggest Airports in Germany
Growth rate
0,3
1,8
9,0
2,6
1,8
1,6
8,6
2,1
2,7
4,3
7,0
2,3
0,6
0,1
-0,9
-0,8
-3,5
-2,3
0,9
27,5
1,7
3,0
9,0
2,0
0,2
Tab. 2: Number of monthly Take-offs on
the biggest Airports in Europe
Source: OAG 2014/15, DLR 2014/15
DLR-Global Aviation Monitor
2015-09-24
Page 3 of 6
Flughafenwesen
und Luftverkehr
G loba l A viat ion M onitor (GAM)
September 2015
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Airline
Delta Air Lines
United Airlines
Southwest Airlines
American Airlines
US Airways
China Southern Airlines
China Eastern Airlines
Ryanair
Air Canada
Lufthansa German Airlines
easyJet
Turkish Airlines
Air China
British Airways
Air France
All Nippon Airways
Alaska Airlines
SAS Scandinavian Airlines
Aeroflot Russian Airlines
JetBlue Airways Corporation
Gol Transportes Aereos
Azul
Qantas Airways
Japan Airlines International
AVIANCA
09/2015
149.132
135.829
101.721
101.284
85.375
61.317
54.424
53.530
49.181
46.197
43.127
42.083
36.694
31.657
30.791
30.228
28.282
28.146
25.848
25.058
24.858
23.239
23.106
22.239
21.835
Growth rate
-0,7
-9,6
6,8
1,2
-5,1
2,1
9,2
6,6
3,1
-4,7
5,3
13,9
6,8
4,3
-3,9
-5,9
6,4
-1,3
11,6
10,1
-4,3
-2,2
-0,2
-0,0
-1,9
Tab. 4: Number of monthly Take-offs by
the biggest Airlines in the World
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Airline
Ryanair
easyJet
Lufthansa German Airlines
Turkish Airlines
SAS Scandinavian Airlines
Air France
British Airways
Aeroflot Russian Airlines
Air Berlin
KLM-Royal Dutch Airlines
Alitalia
Vueling Airlines
Iberia
Norwegian Air Shuttle
Flybe
germanwings
Pegasus Airlines
Swiss
Wideroe's Flyveselskap
Wizz Air
Austrian Airlines AG
Finnair
TAP Air Portugal
Aegean Airlines
Aer Lingus
09/2015
52.835
42.536
42.159
37.223
27.788
27.272
26.391
21.961
18.617
18.042
17.902
17.745
16.139
15.851
15.428
15.402
12.827
11.905
11.599
10.990
10.349
9.670
9.201
8.553
8.546
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Airline
Lufthansa German Airlines
Air Berlin
germanwings
Ryanair
easyJet
Condor Flugdienst
Turkish Airlines
TUIfly
KLM-Royal Dutch Airlines
British Airways
Air France
SAS Scandinavian Airlines
SunExpress
Swiss
Germania
Austrian Airlines AG
Aeroflot Russian Airlines
Wizz Air
SunExpress Deutschland
Vueling Airlines
Air Dolomiti
Intersky
Luxair
Pegasus Airlines
United Airlines
09/2015
27.945
11.647
9.731
2.983
2.325
1.961
1.549
1.502
1.412
1.390
1.263
1.261
1.100
1.034
988
909
706
639
598
532
513
499
440
438
429
Growth rate
-4,7
-5,3
6,8
19,4
15,0
2,1
14,4
4,1
-0,2
11,8
-2,7
4,6
41,2
-1,1
103,7
4,6
2,3
45,9
91,7
8,4
-2,8
33,1
-5,2
25,1
-2,5
Tab. 6: Number of monthly Take-offs by
the biggest Airlines in Germany from
German airports
Growth rate
6,5
5,3
-5,1
14,8
-1,3
-3,8
5,5
11,6
-5,9
-0,2
15,1
12,1
8,2
-0,9
4,2
7,5
14,7
1,4
-1,2
22,5
-1,9
19,1
-3,4
10,6
-3,0
Tab. 5: Number of monthly Take-offs by
the biggest Airlines in Europe from
European airports
Source: OAG 2014/15, DLR 2014/15
DLR-Global Aviation Monitor
2015-09-24
Page 4 of 6
Flughafenwesen
und Luftverkehr
G loba l A viat ion M onitor (GAM)
September 2015
Fig. 1: Development of the Global Air Transport Supply
Fig. 2: Changes in the Global Air Transport Supply
DLR-Global Aviation Monitor
2015-09-24
Page 5 of 6
Flughafenwesen
und Luftverkehr
G loba l A viat ion M onitor (GAM)
September 2015
Fig. 3: Development of the German Air Transport Supply
Fig. 4: Changes in the German Air Transport Supply
Authors:
Dr. Peter Berster
DLR
Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr
D-51147 Köln
E-Mail: [email protected]
DLR-Global Aviation Monitor
Dr. Marc Gelhausen
DLR
Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr
D-51147 Köln
E-Mail: [email protected]
Holger Pabst
DLR
Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr
D-51147 Köln
E-Mail: [email protected]
Dieter Wilken
DLR
Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr
D-51147 Köln
E-Mail: [email protected]
2015-09-24
Page 6 of 6

Flight Guide Summer 2014