Commerzbank in Asien Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 1 Die Commerzbank ist seit mehr als 50 Jahren in der Region AsienPazifik vertreten! 1961: Eröffnung Filiale Tokyo 1972: Eröffnung Filiale Singapur 1979: Eröffnung Filiale Hong Kong Beijing Tianjin Seoul 1994: Eröffnung Filiale Shanghai Tokyo Shanghai 1997: Eröffnung Filiale Peking Dhaka Mumbai Hong Kong Taipei 2009: Eröffnung Filiale Tanjin Bangkok Ho-Chi-Minh-City 2012: Eröffnung Kuala Lumpur TPC Kuala Lumpur Singapore 2013: Partnerschaft mit Kasikorn Bank in Thailand Branches Jakarta Representative offices Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 2014: Partnerschaft in Indien 2 Commerzbank – Corporates & Markets Aktivitäten in Asien/Pazifik Beijing Singapore FIC FI, FX and Corporate Sales FX Trading Rates Trading Credit Trading EMC Sales Commodities Structuring PM Trading Coroporate Finance EMTN Desk Tianjin Seoul Hong Kong Tokyo Shanghai Taipei Dhaka Hong Kong Mumbai Bangkok Ho Chi Minh City Kuala Lumpur Singapore Jakarta Beijing EMC Sales EVF Trading Flow Trading FIC FI Sales Corporate Sales Corporate Finance M&A DCM Bonds DCM Loans Structured Cap. Markets ECM Tokyo Corporate Sales FX Sales Corporate Sales Melbourne Shanghai Corporate Sales EM FX&R Trading (1) Including Corporates & Markets / MSB Branches (1) Representative offices MSB only branches Representative Offices Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 3 Commerzbank – Corporates & Markets Asien/Pazifik Kundenbetreuung in verschiedenen Ländern Japan Banks, Central Bank, Exchange, Insurance Cos, Asset Mgrs, Margin Brokers, Corporates Philippines South Korea Thailand Banks, Central Bank & SWF, Insurance Cos, Asset Mgrs, Securities Cos Banks, Central Bank, Asset Mgrs Banks, Central Bank & SWF Malaysia China Banks, Central Bank & SWF Banks, Central Bank & SWF, Securities Cos, Corporates Indonesia Banks, Central Bank Singapore / HK Banks, Private Banks, IFAs, Family Offices, Central Banks & SWFs, Insurance Cos, Asset Mgrs, Securities Cos, Corporates Taiwan India Banks, Central Bank Australia & New Zealand Banks, Central Bank Banks, Central Bank, Insurance Cos, Asset Mgrs Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 4 Corporates & Markets Asia - Awards Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 5 Marktüberblick Asien / Pazifik Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 6 Asien weiterhin die stärkste Wachstumsregion Sources: Commerzbank, IMF Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 7 Entwicklung Asien 1996-2013 70 60 % share of GDP in Asia, 1996 vs 2013 1996 2013 - China was less important in 1996 60 50 40 - China 221BC…1911 1946…1-Oct-1949 1953, 1958, 1966,1976 1978,1989, 2001, 2008 29 30 ASEAN 15% 20 12 8 10 6 3 3 2 2 2 2 TH HK MY SG PH 0 CN 35 30 KR IN TW ID % share of the stockmarket capitalization in Asia, 2013 vs 1996 29 1996 28 2013 25 ASEAN 17% 20 15 10 9 10 8 5 5 4 3 3 2 TH PH 0 HK CN KR IN TW SG MY ID - Japan 1600-1868 1868-1890 1890-1930 1945-1965 1985 & 1989 1990-2010… Sources: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 8 Investment / GDP 50 % investment/GDP Malaysia+Thailand+Korea China 45 40 35 30 25 20 1990 50 1995 % 45 2000 2005 2010 80 China 2013 2015 % India 2013 60 37 40 60 34 40 30 20 11 20 14 8 10 0 0 -9 -20 Investment PCE Govt Net exports Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 Sources: Bloomberg PCE Investment Govt Net exports 9 Strukturreformen für Indien und Indonesien India – inflation moderating… Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 10 Indonesien Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 11 Strukturelle Reformen nötig India - “Modinomics” - Gujarat to Dehli - Lower House majority, 1st since 1984 - Change mindsets & implementation - Open to greater competition, FDI Indonesia - “Jokowinomics” – Solo to Jakarta; - Clean government; minority in parliament - 3% fiscal deficit; 60% govt debt to GDP - Revive investment; choice of cabinet 1) Quell graft Transparency 2) Welcome FDI 3) Eliminate inefficiencies 4) Red tape 5) Technocrats in place 6) Yoke into global supply chain 7) Slash subsidies Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 Ambivalence Inflation Red carpet Functionality Significance Infrastructure 12 Geopolitische Risiken - Known unknown - Ukraine-Russia - Iraq-ISIS - Oil prices Sources: Google Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 13 Erster Renminbi-ETF Die Commerzbank hat gemeinsam mit der CCB International Asset Management Limited (CCBI) den neuen CBK CCBI RQFII Money Market UCITS ETF gelistet. Die Auswahl an Anlagen in Offshore Renminbi Investments ist nach wie vor begrenzt. Der neue CBK CCBI RQFII Money Market UCITS ETF bietet europäischen Anlegern jetzt eine Anlagemöglichkeit in Offshore Renminbi und ebnet damit einen Weg für Investments in Renminbi denominierte Staats- und Unternehmensanleihen sowie Policy Bank Bonds. Die RQFII Quote ermöglicht Offshore Renminbi Investments im Geldmarkt der Volksrepublik China ebenso wie eine Repatriierung von Gewinnen. WKN A14QCT Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 14 Asiatische Indizes und Produkte Index Index-Zertifikat (ISIN) MSCI Pacific DE000CB77NS2 MSCI Pacific ex Japan DE000CB77NT0 FTSE/Xinhua China 25 DE000CB28YQ6 (Währungsgesichert) Hang Seng China Enterprises DE000CB6JFS3 (Währungsgesichert) Hang Seng Index DE000CB6JFR5 (Währungsgesichert) MSCI Singapore FREE Index DE000CB850H9 MSCI Taiwan TRN DE000CB77WM6 (Währungsgesichert) MSCI Thailand DE000CZ23YV6 Nikkei 225 DE0007029761 (Währungsgesichert) Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 15 Asiatische Indizes und Produkte Produkt Name ETFs (ISIN) ComStage HSCEI UCITS ETF LU0488316992 (ETF023) ComStage HSI UCITS ETF LU0488316729 (ETF022) ComStage China A50 Index USD LU0947415054 (ETF024) ComStage Nikkei 225 UCITS ETF LU0378453376 (ETF020) ComStage TOPIX UCITS ETF LU0392496773 (ETF021) ComStage MSCI Japan 100% Daily Hedged Euro UCITS ETF LU1033694107 (ETF025) ComStage MSCI Pacific TRN UCITS ETF LU0392495023 (ETF114) ComStage MSCI Pacific ex Japan TRN UCITS ETF LU0392495296 (ETF115) ComStage MSCI Japan TRN UCITS ETF LU0392495452 (ETF117) Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 16 Forecasts Sources: Commerzbank Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 17 Forecasts Sources: Commerzbank Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 18 Forecasts Sources: Commerzbank Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 19 Forecasts Source: Commerzbank Thorsten Heidt | Corporates & Markets | April 2015 20
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