RUHR
ECONOMIC PAPERS
Evgenia Samoilova
Colin Vance
Does Parenthood Make Happy People
Happier?
A Lifecycle Analysis Using Panel Quantile
Regression
#563
Imprint
Ruhr Economic Papers
Published by
Ruhr-Universität Bochum (RUB), Department of Economics
Universitätsstr. 150, 44801 Bochum, Germany
Technische Universität Dortmund, Department of Economic and Social Sciences
Vogelpothsweg 87, 44227 Dortmund, Germany
Universität Duisburg-Essen, Department of Economics
Universitätsstr. 12, 45117 Essen, Germany
Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI)
Hohenzollernstr. 1-3, 45128 Essen, Germany
Editors
Prof. Dr. Thomas K. Bauer
RUB, Department of Economics, Empirical Economics
Phone: +49 (0) 234/3 22 83 41, e-mail: [email protected]
Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Leininger
Technische Universität Dortmund, Department of Economic and Social Sciences
Economics – Microeconomics
Phone: +49 (0) 231/7 55-3297, e-mail: [email protected]
Prof. Dr. Volker Clausen
University of Duisburg-Essen, Department of Economics
International Economics
Phone: +49 (0) 201/1 83-3655, e-mail: [email protected]
Prof. Dr. Roland Döhrn, Prof. Dr. Manuel Frondel, Prof. Dr. Jochen Kluve
RWI, Phone: +49 (0) 201/81 49 -213, e-mail: [email protected]
Editorial Office
Sabine Weiler
RWI, Phone: +49 (0) 201/81 49 -213, e-mail: [email protected]
Ruhr Economic Papers #563
Responsible Editor: Manuel Frondel
All rights reserved. Bochum, Dortmund, Duisburg, Essen, Germany, 2015
ISSN 1864-4872 (online) – ISBN 978-3-86788-649-9
The working papers published in the Series constitute work in progress circulated to
stimulate discussion and critical comments. Views expressed represent exclusively the
authors’ own opinions and do not necessarily reflect those of the editors.
Ruhr Economic Papers #563
Evgenia Samoilova and Colin Vance
Does Parenthood Make Happy
People Happier?
A Lifecycle Analysis Using Panel
Quantile Regression
Bibliografische Informationen
der Deutschen Nationalbibliothek
Die Deutsche Bibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über:
http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4419/86788649
ISSN 1864-4872 (online)
ISBN 978-3-86788-649-9
Evgenia Samoilova and Colin Vance1
Does Parenthood Make Happy
People Happier?
A Lifecycle Analysis Using Panel
Quantile Regression
Abstract
Drawing on panel data from Germany, this paper analyzes the correlates of happiness,
with an eye toward isolating the role of parenthood over the lifecycle. The analysis
couples a panel quantile regression with an empirical specification that captures
different phases of parenthood, from the year preceding the birth of a child to the time
when all adult children have left the household. Together, these features allow us to
formally test for heterogeneity in the association of children with happiness according
to the intrinsic happiness of the parent, the age mix of their children, and whether
adult children reside at home. While the two years following the birth of the first child
is associated with significantly higher happiness, this result fades away with age and
with the presence of siblings. Moreover, the relationship between parenthood and
happiness is relatively invariant to the parent’s intrinsic level of happiness.
JEL Classification: J13, C22
Keywords: Panel quantile regression; subjective well-being; GSOEP; parenthood
June 2015
1 Evgenia Samoilova, GESIS; Colin Vance, RWI and Jacobs University Bremen. – All correspondence to: Colin Vance, RWI,
Hohenzollernstr. 1-3, 45128 Essen, Germany, e-mail; [email protected]
,QWURGXFWLRQ
)HZKXPDQHQGHDYRUVDUHVLPXOWDQHRXVO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKVXFKSURIRXQGIXOILOOPHQWDQGZLWK
VXFKLPPHQVHUHVSRQVLELOLW\DVFKLOGEHDULQJ*LYHQWKHZLGHVSUHDGSHUFHSWLRQWKDWSDUHQWKRRG
LVLPSRUWDQWWRKDSSLQHVV+DQVHQLW ZRXOGVHHPUHDVRQDEOHWRVXUPLVHWKDWZKDWHYHU
WKH FRVWV RI KDYLQJ FKLOGUHQ WKHVH DUH RIIVHW E\ EHQHILWV WKDW ZRXOG PDNH PRVW LQGLYLGXDOV
KDSSLHUZLWKFKLOGUHQWKDQZLWKRXWWKHP7KLVFRQFOXVLRQKRZHYHULVFKDOOHQJHGE\DODUJH
ERG\ RI HPSLULFDO UHVHDUFK WKDW ILQGV D QHJDWLYH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ SDUHQWKRRG DQG ZHOO
EHLQJ$VVXPPDUL]HGLQWKHUHFHQWUHYLHZVRIWKHOLWHUDWXUHE\+DQVHQ6WDQFD
DQG %ODQFKIORZHU LQWHUQDWLRQDO FURVVVHFWLRQDO DQG ORQJLWXGLQDO VWXGLHV FRQYHUJH LQ
WKHLU FRQFOXVLRQV WKDW FKLOGUHQ KDYH D SUHGRPLQDQWO\ QHJDWLYH HIIHFW RQ OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ
SDUWLFXODUO\LQZHVWHUQFRXQWULHV
6XFKILQGLQJVDUHVXUSULVLQJQRWRQO\EHFDXVHWKH\DUHFRQWUDU\WRPRVWSHRSOH¶VEHOLHIVDERXW
KDYLQJ FKLOGUHQ (DVWHUOLQ 7RXOHPRQ EXW DOVR EHFDXVH WKH\ DUH DW RGGV ZLWK
YDULRXV GLVFLSOLQDU\ DSSURDFKHV WR H[SODLQLQJ WKH PRWLYDWLRQV XQGHUSLQQLQJ SDUHQWKRRG ,Q
%HFNHU¶VFODVVLFDOIHUWLOLW\PRGHO%HFNHUIRUH[DPSOHFRXSOHVZHLJKWKHPDUJLQDOFRVWV
DQG EHQHILWV RI HDFK DGGLWLRQDO FKLOG ZLWK WKH WRWDO QXPEHU GHWHUPLQHG DFFRUGLQJ WR XWLOLW\
PD[LPL]DWLRQ7KHQHHGV WKHRU\ RIZHOOEHLQJLV DOVR SUHGLFDWHGRQWKH QRWLRQWKDWFKLOGUHQ
SRVLWLYHO\LPSDFWXWLOLW\E\VDWLVI\LQJEDVLFKXPDQQHHGVDQGELRORJLFDOLPSHUDWLYHV6FKRHQHW
DO6WLOORWKHUWKHRULHVIURPVRFLRORJ\DQGHYROXWLRQDU\SV\FKRORJ\IRFXVRQVRFLDOUXOHV
DQG H[SHFWDWLRQV GUDZLQJ FRQQHFWLRQV EHWZHHQ FKLOGUHQ DQG OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ YLD VRFLDO
UHFRJQLWLRQ HVWHHP DQG WKH PDLQWHQDQFH RI VRFLDO FRKHVLRQ &DOGZHOO DQG &DOGZHOO 0LFKDORV :KLOH IRFXVLQJ RQ GLIIHUHQW FKDQQHOV WKURXJK ZKLFK FKLOGUHQ DIIHFW ZHOO
EHLQJWKHVHWKHRULHVVKDUHWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWWKRVHZKRFKRRVHWREHFRPHSDUHQWVDUHKDSSLHU
IRUKDYLQJGRQHVR
$VPDOOSRRORIVWXGLHVKDVUHFHQWO\HPHUJHGWKDWVWDUWVWRUHFRQFLOHWKHRUHWLFDOH[SHFWDWLRQV
DERXWSDUHQWKRRGZLWKHPSLULFDOHVWLPDWHVRIWKHLPSDFWRIFKLOGUHQ7KHVHVWXGLHVVXJJHVWWKDW
DWWKHOHDVWWKHQHJDWLYHUHODWLRQVKLSIRXQGLQPXFKRIWKHOLWHUDWXUHPD\UHTXLUHTXDOLILFDWLRQ
'UDZLQJRQGDWDIURP WKH:RUOG9DOXHV6XUYH\ IURP FRXQWULHV0DUJROLVDQG0\UVN\Ol
ILQGWKDWDQHJDWLYHDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQWKHQXPEHURIFKLOGUHQDQGKDSSLQHVVIURPDQ
2/6UHJUHVVLRQ EHFRPHVSRVLWLYHZKHQOLPLWLQJWKHVDPSOHWR SDUWLFXODUVRFLRGHPRJUDSKLF
VXEJURXSVVXFKDVWKRVHRYHU8VLQJWKH%ULWLVKKRXVHKROGSDQHOVXUYH\DQGIL[HGHIIHFWV
UHJUHVVLRQ$QJHOHVDOVRILQGVHYLGHQFHIRUDSRVLWLYHLQIOXHQFHRILQFUHDVLQJQXPEHUV
4
RI FKLOGUHQ EXW VLPLODU WR 0DUJROLV DQG 0\UVN\Ol KH TXDOLILHV WKDW WKH HIIHFW LV
FRQWLQJHQW RQ WKH LQGLYLGXDO¶V FKDUDFWHULVWLFV PRVW QRWDEO\ PDULWDO VWDWXV )RFXVLQJ RQ
DGDSWDWLRQWRPDMRUHYHQWVOLNHSDUHQWKRRGXVLQJWKH*HUPDQ6RFLR(FRQRPLF3DQHO&ODUNHW
DOILQGHYLGHQFHIRULQFUHDVHGOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQRQH\HDUEHIRUHELUWKDQGRQH\HDUDIWHU
ELUWK7KLVHIIHFWKRZHYHUWDSHUVRIIWRVWDWLVWLFDOLQVLJQLILFDQFHE\WKHWLPHWKHFKLOGUHDFKHV
ILYH OHDGLQJ WKH DXWKRUV WR FRQFOXGH FRPSOHWH DGDSWDWLRQ WR WKH ELUWK RI D FKLOG &ODUN DQG
*HRUJHOOLV REWDLQ VLPLODU UHVXOWV IRUWKH%ULWLVK+RXVHKROG 3DQHO 6XUYH\GDWD 7DNHQ
WRJHWKHU WKH DERYH VWXGLHV VXJJHVW WKDW FRQWH[WXDO DQG WHPSRUDO KHWHURJHQHLW\ FDQ
IXQGDPHQWDOO\EHDURQWKHLGHQWLILHGDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQSDUHQWKRRGDQGKDSSLQHVV
7KH SUHVHQW SDSHU FRQWULEXWHV WR WKLV OLQH RI LQTXLU\ LQ WZR ZD\V )LUVW ZH LQFRUSRUDWH D
KHUHWRIRUHXQH[SORUHGVRXUFHRIKHWHURJHQHLW\DULVLQJIURPWKHSRVVLELOLW\WKDWWKHLPSDFWRI
FKLOGUHQRQKDSSLQHVVGHSHQGVRQKRZKDSS\WKHSDUHQWLV$VWKHUHYLHZVRIWKHOLWHUDWXUHE\
+DQVHQ6WDQFDDQG%ODQFKIORZHULQGLFDWHYLUWXDOO\DOORIWKHHPSLULFDO
VWXGLHVRQWKLVWRSLFKDYHXVHGVRPHYDULDQWRIPHDQUHJUHVVLRQWKHUHE\HIIHFWLYHO\DVVXPLQJ
WKDWWKHPDJQLWXGHRIWKHHIIHFWRIFKLOGUHQLVLQYDULDQWWRWKHLQGLYLGXDO¶VLQWULQVLFKDSSLQHVV
:HUHOD[WKLVDVVXPSWLRQE\HPSOR\LQJDSDQHOTXDQWLOHUHJUHVVLRQDSSURDFK&DQD\WR
DQDO\]H\HDUVRIGDWDIURPWKH*HUPDQ6RFLR(FRQRPLF3DQHO*62(3%H\RQGFRQWUROOLQJ
IRU WLPH LQYDULDQW KHWHURJHQHLW\ WKURXJK WKH HOLPLQDWLRQ RI IL[HG HIIHFWV WKH SDQHO TXDQWLOH
HVWLPDWRU DOORZV XV WR H[SORUH KHWHURJHQHLW\ LQ WKH LQIOXHQFH RI FKLOGUHQ DFURVV GLIIHUHQW
TXDQWLOHVRIWKHUHVSRQVHYDULDEOHPHDVXUHGRQDSRLQWKDSSLQHVVVFDOH6LPLODUWR%LQGHU
DQG&RDG¶VSLRQHHULQJDSSOLFDWLRQRIDFURVVVHFWLRQDOTXDQWLOHHVWLPDWRUWRGDWDIURP
WKH%ULWLVK+RXVHKROG3DQHO6XUYH\RXUDQDO\VLVUHYHDOVWKDWWKHPDJQLWXGHRIPDQ\RIWKH
H[SODQDWRU\ YDULDEOHV LV GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH OHYHO RI KDSSLQHVV D SDWWHUQ WKDW LV RWKHUZLVH
REVFXUHGE\DVWDQGDUGPHDQUHJUHVVLRQ
7KH VHFRQG FRQWULEXWLRQ LV DQ HPSLULFDO VSHFLILFDWLRQ WKDW LQFOXGHV YDULDEOHV PHDVXULQJ WKH
SUHVHQFHRIFKLOGUHQRIGLIIHUHQWDJHVIRUWKHHQWLUHSHULRGEHWZHHQWKH\HDUSUHFHGLQJWKHELUWK
RIDFKLOGWRWKHWLPHDIWHUWKHODVWFKLOGKDVOHIWWKHKRPHWKHUHE\SURYLGLQJDFRPSUHKHQVLYH
SLFWXUH RI KRZ WKH LPSDFW RI FKLOGUHQ FKDQJH RYHU GLIIHUHQW SKDVHV RI WKH OLIHF\FOH ,Q WKLV
UHVSHFW RXU VWXG\ FRPSOHPHQWV &ODUN HW DO¶V DQDO\VLV RI DGDSWDWLRQ WR OLIH HYHQWV
LQFOXGLQJSDUHQWKRRG$QRYHOW\RIWKHSUHVHQWDQDO\VLVLVLWVPRUHIRFXVHGORRNDWKRZGLIIHUHQW
FRPELQDWLRQV RI FKLOGUHQ RI GLIIHUHQW DJHV DQG WKHLU FRUHVLGHQFH ZLWK SDUHQWV FRUUHODWH ZLWK
KDSSLQHVV)ROORZLQJ(DVWHUOLQJ¶VGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQWKHWUDQVLHQWLPSDFWVRISHFXQLDU\
5
OLIHHYHQWVRQVDWLVIDFWLRQDQGWKHSHUPDQHQWLPSDFWVRIQRQSHFXQLDU\RQHVZHZRXOGH[SHFW
WRVHHHYLGHQFHIRUSHUVLVWHQWO\VLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWVLUUHVSHFWLYHRIWKHFKLOGUHQ¶VDJHPL[
$PRQJ RXU NH\ UHVXOWV ZH ILQG HYLGHQFH IRU D SRVLWLYH DVVRFLDWLRQ RI FKLOGUHQ ZLWK OLIH
VDWLVIDFWLRQRQH \HDUSULRUWRWKHELUWKRID FKLOGDVZHOODVRQH \HDUDIWHUWKHELUWKIRUERWK
ZRPHQDQGPHQ)RUZRPHQWKHUHVXOWVLQGLFDWHDSRVLWLYHDVVRFLDWLRQRQFHDOOFKLOGUHQRYHU
KDYHPRYHGRXWFRQWUDVWHGE\DQHJDWLYHDVVRFLDWLRQDPRQJPHQ'XULQJWKH\HDUVZKHQ
FKLOGUHQDUHJURZLQJXSZHILQGWKDWWKHKDSSLQHVVRISDUHQWVLVE\DQGODUJHQRWVLJQLILFDQWO\
GLIIHUHQWIURPWKDWRIQRQSDUHQWV0RUHRYHUWKHPDMRULW\RIFRHIILFLHQWHVWLPDWHVUHODWHGWR
FKLOGUHQ KDYHPDJQLWXGHVWKDWDUH IDLUO\ VWDEOHRYHUWKHGLIIHUHQW TXDQWLOHVRIWKHGHSHQGHQW
YDULDEOH VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW WKH LQIOXHQFH RI FKLOGUHQ LV UHODWLYHO\ LQYDULDQW WR WKH LQWULQVLF
KDSSLQHVV OHYHO 6XEVWDQWLDO KHWHURJHQHLW\ LV KRZHYHU VHHQ IRU VHYHUDO RI WKH YDULDEOHV
LQGLFDWLQJ DGXOW FKLOGUHQ DV ZHOO DV IRU VHYHUDO FRQWUROV LQFOXGLQJ LQFRPH XQHPSOR\PHQW
HGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWGLYRUFHDQGVHSDUDWLRQ
7KHSDSHULVVWUXFWXUHGLQIRXUVHFWLRQV7KHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQGHVFULEHVGDWDIURPWKH*HUPDQ
6RFLR(FRQRPLF3DQHOLQFOXGLQJGHVFULSWLYHVWDWLVWLFVRQWKHVDPSOH7KHPRGHODQGWKHUHVXOWV
DUHSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQVWZRDQGWKUHH6HFWLRQIRXUFORVHVZLWKVRPHILQDOUHPDUNV
0HWKRGRORJ\
2.1 Data and specification
:H XVH GDWD IURP WKH *HUPDQ 6RFLR(FRQRPLF 3DQHO *62(3 ZKLFK VXUYH\V LQGLYLGXDOV
IURPDERXWKRXVHKROGVSHU\HDU7KHGDWDFRYHUVWKH\HDUVWKURXJKDQGZDV
H[WUDFWHGZLWKWKHKHOSRIWKH6WDWD$GG2QSDFNDJH3DQHO:KL],QGLYLGXDOV\RXQJHUWKDQ
DUHH[FOXGHGIURPWKHVDPSOH:HDGGLWLRQDOO\H[FOXGHLQGLYLGXDOV ZKRVHFRPSOHWHIHUWLOLW\
FDQQRWEHREVHUYHGGHVLJQDWHGDVWKRVHZKRDUHRU\RXQJHUZKHQODVWREVHUYHGLQWKHGDWD
7KLVWKUHVKROGLVGHHPHGWRDGHTXDWHO\FRYHUFKLOGEHDULQJ\HDUVJLYHQWKDWPRVWZRPHQDERXW
RIWKRVHLQWKHVDPSOHDUHRU\RXQJHUZKHQWKH\KDYHDEDE\
7KHGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH DQLQGLYLGXDO¶V OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQLV PHDVXUHGE\WKHUHVSRQVHWR WKH
TXHVWLRQRI³+RZGLVVDWLVILHGRUVDWLVILHGDUH\RXZLWK\RXUOLIHDOOWKLQJVFRQVLGHUHG´DQGLV
1
3DQHO:KL]http://www.PanelWhiz.euZDVZULWWHQE\-RKQ3+DLVNHQ'H1HZMRKQ#3DQHO:KL]HX6HH+DLVNHQ
'H1HZDQG+DKQIRUGHWDLOV7KH3DQHO:KL]JHQHUDWHG'2ILOHWRUHWULHYHWKHGDWDXVHGKHUHLVDYDLODEOHXSRQ
UHTXHVW$Q\GDWDRUFRPSXWDWLRQDOHUURUVLQWKLVSDSHUDUHRXURZQ
6
UHFRUGHGLQHDFK\HDURIWKHVXUYH\7KHUHVSRQVHVWRWKLVTXHVWLRQDUHUHSUHVHQWHGE\DQ
SRLQW/LNHUWVFDOHZKHUHPHDQV³FRPSOHWHO\GLVVDWLVILHG´DQGLV³FRPSOHWHO\VDWLVILHG´
)ROORZLQJWKHZHOONQRZQUHVXOWLGHQWLILHGE\'LHQHUDQG'LHQHUWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRI
OLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQLVSRVLWLYHO\VNHZHGRIUHVSRQGHQWVKDYHDVFRUHRIRUPRUHZKLOH
KDYHDVFRUHRIRUOHVV *LYHQ WKHWLJKW FRQQHFWLRQWKDWSUHYLRXVOLWHUDWXUHKDVHVWDEOLVKHG
EHWZHHQ JHQGHU DQG WKH VWUDLQV DQG HQMR\PHQW RI SDUHQWLQJ 6FRWW DQG $OZLQ WKH
DQDO\VHVDUHXQGHUWDNHQVHSDUDWHO\E\VH[ZLWKSHUVRQ\HDUVREVHUYHGIRUZRPHQDQG
SHUVRQ\HDUVIRUPHQ
7RH[SORUH WKHLQIOXHQFHRIYDULRXVVWDJHV RISDUHQWKRRG RQKDSSLQHVV ZHPDNHXVHRIWKH
SDQHOVWUXFWXUHRIWKHGDWDWRFUHDWHDVXLWHRIYDULDEOHVWKDWFDSWXUHWKHSUHVHQFHRUDQWLFLSDWHG
SUHVHQFHRIFKLOGUHQLQSHRSOH¶VOLYHV:HUHSHRSOHWRDGDSWWRSDUHQWKRRGZHZRXOGH[SHFW
WKDWDQ\LQIOXHQFHRQVDWLVIDFWLRQIURPWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIDFKLOGZRXOGHYHQWXDOO\GLVVLSDWH
%HFDXVH FKLOGUHQ FRQWLQXDOO\ FKDQJH DV WKH\ DJH KRZHYHU WKH XWLOLW\ GHULYHG IURP KDYLQJ
FKLOGUHQPD\DOVRFKDQJHZLWKWKHLUDJH0RUHRYHUZKHQPXOWLSOHFKLOGUHQDUHSUHVHQWXWLOLW\
PD\EHGLIIHUHQWLDOO\DIIHFWHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHDJHPL[HVRIWKHFKLOGUHQ7KHH[SHULHQFHRI
KDYLQJDVHYHQ\HDUROGIRUH[DPSOHLVOLNHO\WRGLIIHUIURPKDYLQJDWZR\HDUROGZKLFKLQ
WXUQLVOLNHO\WRYDU\GHSHQGLQJRQZKHWKHUDWHHQDJHULVDOVRSUHVHQW7RWDNHLQWRDFFRXQWWKLV
SRWHQWLDOO\WUDQVLWRU\LQIOXHQFHRIDFKLOGRQOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQZHFUHDWHGXPP\YDULDEOHVIURP
WKHUHFRUGHGLQIRUPDWLRQRQELUWKGDWHVWRFDSWXUHGLIIHUHQWFRPELQDWLRQVRIFKLOGUHQRIGLIIHUHQW
DJHUDQJHV)RXURIWKHGXPPLHVDUHGHVLJQDWHGDVLIWKHLQGLYLGXDOLVDSDUHQWRIDWOHDVWRQH
FKLOGLQWKHIROORZLQJDJHFDWHJRULHVYDULDEOHODEHOVLQSDUHQWKHVLV\HDUV&\HDUV
&\HDUV&\HDUV&7KHUHPDLQLQJGXPPLHVDUHEXLOWIURPWKHSRVVLEOH
FRPELQDWLRQVRIWKHVHFDWHJRULHV ODEHOHGE\FRQFDWHQDWLQJWKHRULJLQ ODEHOV7KHUHIHUHQFH
FDWHJRU\LVDFKLOGOHVVLQGLYLGXDO
6LPLODU WR WKH ZRUN RI &ODUN HW DO WKLV VSHFLILFDWLRQ DOORZV XV WR XQGHUWDNH
VWUDLJKWIRUZDUGWHVWVRIDGDSWDWLRQWRFKLOGUHQ8QGHUDVWURQJYHUVLRQRIWKHQXOOK\SRWKHVLV
WKDWSHRSOHDGDSWWREHLQJSDUHQWVZHZRXOGH[SHFWWKDWWKHPDJQLWXGHRIDOORIWKHFRHIILFLHQWV
RWKHUWKDQWKDWLQGLFDWLQJWKHILUVWWZR \HDUVDIWHUWKHELUWKRIWKHILUVW FKLOG&ZRXOGQRW
GLIIHUVLJQLILFDQWO\IURP]HUR$ZHDNHUYHUVLRQRIWKHK\SRWKHVLVZRXOGDOORZIRUDFKDQJHLQ
KDSSLQHVVZKHQHYHUDEDE\HQWHUVWKHKRXVHKROG8QGHUWKLVYDULDQWDQ\RIWKH FRHIILFLHQWV
FDSWXULQJDJHPL[HVWKDWLQFOXGHDEDE\ZRXOGEHVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQW
7
2XUVSHFLILFDWLRQDGGLWLRQDOO\LQFOXGHVWKUHHGXPP\YDULDEOHVFDSWXULQJORQJHUWHUPLQIOXHQFHV
RIFKLOGUHQ7KHILUVWLGHQWLILHVSDUHQWVIRUZKRPDOOELRORJLFDOFKLOGUHQDUHRYHUDQGKDYH
PRYHGRXWRIWKHKRXVHKROGWKHVRFDOOHGHPSW\QHVWSKDVHZKLOHWKHVHFRQGGXPP\LGHQWLILHV
SDUHQWV ZKR KDYH FKLOGUHQ RYHU VWLOO OLYLQJ LQ WKH KRXVHKROG 7KH WKLUG GXPP\ YDULDEOH
LGHQWLILHVSDUHQWVZKRKDYHELRORJLFDOFKLOGUHQXQGHUDJHEXWZKRDUHQRWOLYLQJLQWKHVDPH
KRXVHKROG $V WKLV ODWWHU YDULDEOH LV LQGLFDWLYH RI IDPLOLHV WKDW KDYH VSOLW ZH H[SHFW WKH
FRHIILFLHQWWREHQHJDWLYH7KHVLJQRIWKHIRUPHUWZRYDULDEOHVLVDQHPSLULFDOTXHVWLRQ:RUN
IURP*OHQQDQG0F/DQDKDQXVLQJ86QDWLRQDOVXUYH\VILQGVVOLJKWO\ORZHUKDSSLQHVV
DPRQJSDUHQWVZKRVHFKLOGUHQKDYHOHIWKRPHUHODWLYHWRQRQSDUHQWV%\FRQWUDVW'HQQHUVWHLQ
HWDOILQGDQRYHUDOOPRRGLPSURYHPHQWDPRQJ$XVWUDOLDQPRWKHUVZKRVHFKLOGUHQKDYH
OHIWWKHKRPH/LNHZLVH+DQVHQHWDOXVLQJDFURVVVHFWLRQDO1RUZHJLDQVDPSOHIRXQG
WKDW HPSW\ QHVW PRWKHUV KDYH VOLJKWO\ KLJKHU VHOIHVWHHP DV ZHOO DV OLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQ ZKHQ
FRPSDUHGWRFKLOGOHVVZRPHQ$PRQJWKHIHZVWXGLHVRIDGXOWFKLOGUHQZKRDUHVWLOOOLYLQJLQ
WKH KRPH 3XGURYVND ILQGV GHFUHDVHG SV\FKRORJLFDO ZHOOEHLQJ IRU PRWKHUV EXW QRW
IDWKHUV
8
7DEOH/LIHVDWLVIDFWLRQEHWZHHQPHQDQGZRPHQ
:RPHQ
0HQ
WWHVW
(QWLUHVDPSOH
&KLOGOHVV
<HDUSULRUWRELUWK
&WKURXJK
&WKURXJK
&WKURXJK
&WKURXJK
$OONLGV!PRYHGRXW
$Q\NLGV PRYHGRXW
$Q\NLGV!LQKRPH
7DEOH SUHVHQWV GHVFULSWLYH VWDWLVWLFV WKDW VKRZ KRZ OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ GLIIHUV E\ JHQGHU IRU
SHRSOHZLWKDQGZLWKRXWFKLOGUHQRYHUVHOHFWFDWHJRULHV)RUWKHHQWLUHVDPSOHWKHPHDQOLIH
VDWLVIDFWLRQLV±DWIRUZRPHQDQGIRUPHQ±VWDWLVWLFDOO\LQGLVWLQJXLVKDEOHEHWZHHQ
WKHVH[HVDWWKHOHYHO$PRQJFKLOGOHVVSHRSOHOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQLVVRPHZKDWORZHUWKDQIRU
WKHVDPSOHDVDZKROHZKHUHE\ZRPHQLQWKLVVXEFDWHJRU\KDYHDVLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHUVFRUH
WKDQPHQ,QWKH\HDUSUHFHGLQJELUWKZRPHQDUHRQDYHUDJHXQLWVKDSSLHUWKDQPHQD
SRVLWLYHGLIIHUHQWLDOWKDWPDLQWDLQVIRUHDFKRIWKHVXEVHTXHQWDJHFDWHJRULHVRIRIIVSULQJDOEHLW
VWDWLVWLFDOO\LQVLJQLILFDQWIRUWKHWRFDWHJRU\0RUHRYHUZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRIWKHWR
\HDUFDWHJRULHVSDUHQWV RIFKLOGUHQLQ HDFK SUHDGXOW DJHEUDFNHW KDYHD KLJKHUDYHUDJHOLIH
VDWLVIDFWLRQWKDQFKLOGOHVVLQGLYLGXDOV3DUHQWVRIFKLOGUHQZKRKDYHPRYHGRXWDUHDOVRKDSSLHU
RQ DYHUDJH WKDQ WKH VDPSOH DV D ZKROH :KHQ WKH FKLOGUHQ RYHU PHQ DUH KDSSLHU WKDQ
ZRPHQZKLOHZRPHQDUHKDSSLHUWKDQPHQLQFDVHVZKHQFKLOGUHQKDYHPRYHGRXWZKRDUH
XQGHU$OWKRXJKWKLVODWWHUJURXSLVLQGLFDWLYHRIIDPLOLHVWKDWKDYHH[SHULHQFHGVHSDUDWLRQ
WKH PHDQ VDWLVIDFWLRQ IRU ERWK VH[HV LV QHYHUWKHOHVV KLJKHU WKDQ FKLOGOHVV SHRSOH 3DUHQWV RI
FKLOGUHQRYHUZKRDUHVWLOOOLYLQJLQWKHKRXVHKROGDUHWKHRQO\JURXSZKRVHDYHUDJHOLIH
VDWLVIDFWLRQLVOHVVWKDQWKDWRIFKLOGOHVVLQGLYLGXDOV7ZRFRQFOXVLRQVFDQEHGUDZQIURPWKHVH
FUXGHFRPSDULVRQV)LUVWZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRIWKRVHZLWKDGXOWFKLOGUHQLQWKHKRPHSDUHQWV
KDYHKLJKHUOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQRQDYHUDJHWKDQFKLOGOHVVSHRSOH6HFRQGWKHPDJQLWXGHRIWKHVH
GLIIHUHQFHVYDULHVLQPRVWFDVHVVLJQLILFDQWO\EHWZHHQZRPHQDQGPHQ
9
2.2 Estimators
2XUSRLQWRIGHSDUWXUHLQHFRQRPHWULFDOO\HVWLPDWLQJWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQFKLOGUHQDQGOLIH
VDWLVIDFWLRQLVWKHVSHFLILFDWLRQRIDIL[HGHIIHFWVUHJUHVVLRQ
ܵ௜௧ ൌ ߙ ൅ ߚ ȝ š௜௧ ൅ ߠ ȝ œ௧ ൅ ߶௜ ൅ ݁௜௧ ZKHUHܵ௜௧ PHDVXUHVWKHUHSRUWHGVDWLVIDFWLRQRILQGLYLGXDOiDWWLPHtšLVDYHFWRURIH[SODQDWRU\
YDULDEOHVœ௧ LVDYHFWRURIXQLWLQYDULDQW\HDUIL[HGHIIHFWV߶௜ LVDQLQGLYLGXDOOHYHOIL[HGHIIHFW
DQG݁௜௧ LVDVWRFKDVWLFGLVWXUEDQFHWHUP7KHFRHIILFLHQWVߙߚDQGߠDUHDVHWRISDUDPHWHUVDQG
SDUDPHWHUYHFWRUVWREHHVWLPDWHG,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHELQDU\LQGLFDWRUVIRUELRORJLFDOFKLOGUHQ
WKH YHFWRU šFRQWDLQV D VHW RI WLPHYDU\LQJ YDULDEOHV WKDW FRQWURO IRU RWKHU HOHPHQWV RI
VRFLRHFRQRPLFFLUFXPVWDQFH7KHVHLQFOXGHDORJJHGPHDVXUHRIDIWHUWD[LQFRPHDVZHOODV
GXPPLHVLQGLFDWLQJWKHLQGLYLGXDO¶VPDULWDOHPSOR\PHQWDQGKHDOWKVWDWXV:HDOVRLQFOXGH
GXPPLHVIRUWKHLQGLYLGXDO¶VDJHEUDFNHWDQGGXPPLHVLQGLFDWLQJZKHWKHUWKHLQGLYLGXDOKDV
DXQLYHUVLW\GHJUHHDQGZKHWKHUDGXOWVRWKHUWKDQWKHVSRXVHDUHOLYLQJLQWKHKRXVHKROG
2QH SRWHQWLDOO\ UHVWULFWLYH IHDWXUH RI WKH IL[HGHIIHFW HVWLPDWLRQ PHWKRG LV LWV IRFXV RQ WKH
FRQGLWLRQDOH[SHFWDWLRQIXQFWLRQZKLFKSUHFOXGHVWKHDELOLW\WRHVWLPDWHGLIIHUHQWLDOHIIHFWVRI
DQ H[SODQDWRU\ YDULDEOH DW GLIIHUHQW SRLQWV LQ WKH FRQGLWLRQDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH GHSHQGHQW
YDULDEOH%LQGHUDQG&RDOHODERUDWHRQWKLVLVVXHLQWKHFRQWH[WRIKDSSLQHVVUHVHDUFK
7KH\QRWHWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIPRYLQJEH\RQGDYHUDJHHIIHFWVZKHQHYDOXDWLQJWKHGHWHUPLQDQWV
RIKDSSLQHVVWKHUHE\DOORZLQJIRUWKHSRVVLELOLW\WKDWVRPHGHWHUPLQDQWVKDYHDKHWHURJHQHRXV
HIIHFW DFURVV LQGLYLGXDOV GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKHLU LQWULQVLF KDSSLQHVV 7KH TXDQWLOH UHJUHVVLRQ
HVWLPDWRU LQWURGXFHG E\ .RHQNHU DQG %DVVHWW DFFRPPRGDWHV VXFK KHWHURJHQHLW\ E\
HVWLPDWLQJWKHLPSDFWRIDUHJUHVVRUDWDQ\SRLQWLQWKHFRQGLWLRQDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHUHVSRQVH
QRWMXVWWKHFRQGLWLRQDOPHDQ
)ROORZLQJ WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI .RHQNHU DQG +DOORFN WKH VWDUWLQJ SRLQW IRU TXDQWLOH
UHJUHVVLRQDUHWKHXQFRQGLWLRQDOTXDQWLOHVREWDLQHGE\PLQLPL]LQJWKHVXPRIDV\PPHWULFDOO\
ZHLJKWHGUHVLGXDOVZLWKDQDFFRUGLQJO\FKRVHQFRQVWDQWE
ܳఛ ሺ‫ݕ‬ሻ ൌ ‹ ෍ ߩఛ ሺ‫ݕ‬௜ െ ܾሻ
௕‫א‬Թ
7KH ZHLJKLQJ VFKHPH ߩఛ ሺήሻLV WKH DEVROXWH YDOXH IXQFWLRQ ZKLFK WDNHV RQ GLIIHUHQW VORSHV
GHSHQGLQJRQWKHVLJQRIWKHUHVLGXDOVDQGWKHTXDQWLOHRILQWHUHVW
10
0RYLQJIURPWKHXQFRQGLWLRQDOWRWKHFRQGLWLRQDOTXDQWLOHVLVDFKLHYHGE\VXEVWLWXWLQJWKHܾE\
WKH SDUDPHWULF IXQFWLRQ ܾሺ‫ ݐ݅ݔ‬ǡ ߚሻDQG PLQLPL]LQJ WKH IROORZLQJ HTXDWLRQ XVLQJ OLQHDU
RSWLPL]DWLRQ
ܳఛ ሺ‫ݕ‬ሻ ൌ ‹ ‫ א‬Թ ෍ ߩఛ ൫‫ݕ‬௜ െ ܾሺ‫ݔ‬௜௧ ǡ ߚሻ൯
ఉ
ZLWKWKHYHFWRU‫ ݔ‬FRQWDLQLQJWKHFRQWUROYDULDEOHVZKLOHߚLVWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJSDUDPHWHUYHFWRU
7KHVROXWLRQWRWKLVPLQLPL]DWLRQSUREOHP\LHOGVHVWLPDWHVRIWKHLPSDFWRIWKHFRQWUROVDWDQ\
SRLQWLQWKHFRQGLWLRQDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHUHVSRQVH
4XDQWLOH UHJUHVVLRQ DIIRUGV VHYHUDO DGYDQWDJHV RYHU PHDQ UHJUHVVLRQ LW LV PRUH UREXVW WR
RXWOLHUVLWDYRLGVDVVXPSWLRQVDERXWWKHSDUDPHWULFGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHHUURUSURFHVVDQGWKH
HVWLPDWHV DUH HDV\ WR FRPSXWH UHTXLULQJ VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG OLQHDU SURJUDPPLQJ PHWKRGV $V
GHPRQVWUDWHGE\&DQD\DQDGGLWLRQDODGYDQWDJHDQGRQHZKLFKZHH[SORLWKHUHLVWKDW
LW FDQ EH UHDGLO\ DGDSWHG WR SDQHO GDWD 6SHFLILFDOO\ &DQD\ SURSRVHV D VLPSOH
WUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIWKHGDWDWKDWUHPRYHVWKHIL[HGHIIHFWVXQGHUWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWWKHVHHIIHFWV
KDYHDXQLIRUPLPSDFWDFURVVDOOWKHTXDQWLOHV7KHHVWLPDWRULVFRPSULVHGRIWZRVWHSVWKHILUVW
RIZKLFKFDOFXODWHV WKHIL[HGHIIHFWIURPWKH HVWLPDWLRQ RIHTXDWLRQ 7KHQH[W VWHSLV WR
VXEWUDFWWKHIL[HGHIIHFWREWDLQHGLQIURPWKHUHVSRQVHYDULDEOH
‫ݕ‬ො௜௧ ൌ ‫ݕ‬௜௧ െ ‫ݑ‬ො௜ (TXDWLRQ\LHOGVDGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHIUHHRIWKHLQIOXHQFHRIXQREVHUYHGKHWHURJHQHLW\7KH
TXDQWLOHUHJUHVVLRQHVWLPDWRULQWURGXFHGE\.RHQNHUDQG%DVVHWWFDQWKHQEHDSSOLHG
XVLQJ WKH WUDQVIRUPHG GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH LQ WR REWDLQ HVWLPDWHV IUHH RI WKH LQIOXHQFH RI
XQREVHUYHGWLPHLQYDULDQWKHWHURJHQHLW\
$ILQDOHVWLPDWLRQLVVXHUHODWHVWRWKHTXHVWLRQRIFDXVDOLW\$OWKRXJKWKHLQFOXVLRQRIWKHIL[HG
HIIHFWV DOORZV XV WR HIIHFWLYHO\ IROORZ WKH VDPH LQGLYLGXDO WKURXJK GLIIHUHQW VWDJHV RI
SDUHQWKRRG DQG WKHUHE\ FRQWURO IRU WKRVH LQIOXHQFHV WKDW GR QRW YDU\ RYHU WLPH DVFULELQJ D
FDXVDOLQWHUSUHWDWLRQWRWKHLPSDFWRISDUHQWKRRGLVQHYHUWKHOHVVSUREOHPDWLF$V'HDWRQDQG
6WRQHSRLQWRXWRQHGLIILFXOW\LVWKDWPDQ\RIWKHWLPHYDU\LQJFRYDULDWHVDUHSRWHQWLDOO\
EDGFRQWUROVEHLQJWKHPVHOYHVDIXQFWLRQRIWKHGHFLVLRQWRKDYHFKLOGUHQ,QFRPHIRUH[DPSOH
LVFRQFHLYDEO\DIIHFWHGE\WKHSUHVHQFHRIFKLOGUHQDVLVHPSOR\PHQWDQGPDULWDOVWDWXV7KH
LQFOXVLRQRIWKHVHYDULDEOHVFRXOGFRQVHTXHQWO\JLYHULVHWRVHOHFWLRQELDVUHQGHULQJDFDXVDO
LQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKHLQIOXHQFHRIFKLOGUHQXQZDUUDQWHG$QJULVWDQG3LVFKNHSS±
7KHUHLVQRVWUDLJKWIRUZDUGIL[WRWKLVGLIILFXOW\'HDWRQDQG6WRQHXQGHUWDNHUREXVWQHVV
FKHFNVE\H[FOXGLQJVHOHFWFRQWUROVIURPWKHPRGHODQH[HUFLVHZHUHSOLFDWHGZLWKRXWILQGLQJ
11
QRWDEOH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH HVWLPDWHV :KLOH WKLV ILQGLQJ GRHV QRW HVWDEOLVK FDXVDOLW\ ZH FDQ
QHYHUWKHOHVV WHVW WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV WKDW FRQWUROOLQJ IRU ERWK LQGHSHQGHQW FRQWUROV HJ
XQLYHUVLW\GHJUHHDQGWKRVHWKDWPD\SUHGLVSRVHSHRSOHWREHFRPHSDUHQWVHJLQFRPHWKHUH
LVQRGLIIHUHQFHLQOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQEHWZHHQWKRVHZLWKDQGZLWKRXWFKLOGUHQ,WLVLQWKLVVSLULW±
UHIUDLQLQJIURPFODLPVRIFDXVDOLW\±WKDWZHDWWHPSWWRLQWHUSUHWWKHUHVXOWVWKDWIROORZ
5HVXOWV
7R SURYLGH D UHIHUHQFH SRLQW IRU WKH TXDQWLOH IL[HGHIIHFWV PRGHOV 7DEOH SUHVHQWV WKH
FRHIILFLHQWVIURPVWDQGDUGIL[HGHIIHFWVPRGHOVHVWLPDWHGVHSDUDWHO\RQWKHVDPSOHVIRUZRPHQ
DQGPHQ:HLQFOXGHKHUHRQO\WKHFRHIILFLHQWVDORQJZLWKDVWHULVNVLQGLFDWLQJWKHLUVLJQLILFDQFH
OHYHOV7KHVWDWLVWLFDOSUHFLVLRQRIWKHVHHVWLPDWHVLVSUHVHQWHGJUDSKLFDOO\LQWKHGLVFXVVLRQRI
WKHTXDQWLOHUHVXOWV
:LWKUHVSHFWWRWKHUROHRIFKLOGUHQWKUHHPDLQUHVXOWVHPHUJH)LUVWVLPLODUWRWKHUHVXOWVRI
&ODUNHWDOWKHDQWLFLSDWLRQRIDFKLOGRQH\HDUSULRUWRELUWKDVZHOODVWKHSUHVHQFHRI
FKLOGUHQLQWKHWKURXJK \HDUROGUDQJHLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWK DERRVWLQOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQRQH
ZKRVH PDJQLWXGH LV VXEVWDQWLDOO\ VWURQJHU IRU ZRPHQ 6HFRQG WKH FRHIILFLHQWV RQ WKH
VXEVHTXHQW DJH PL[HV DUH LQ DOPRVW DOO FDVHV VWDWLVWLFDOO\ LQVLJQLILFDQW $ VLQJOH H[FHSWLRQ
DSSOLHVWRWKHYDULDEOH&&&LQGLFDWLQJDSRVLWLYHDVVRFLDWLRQDPRQJPRWKHUVRIDWOHDVWRQH
FKLOGLQHDFKRIWKHDJHUDQJHVWKURXJKWKURXJKDQGWKURXJK2WKHUZLVHWKH
UHPDLQLQJ PL[HV RI FKLOGUHQ LQFOXGLQJ WKRVH FRPSULVHG RI D EDE\ WKURXJK KDYH QR
VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW IRU ZRPHQ RU PHQ SURYLGLQJ VXSSRUW WR WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW DGDSWDWLRQ LV
FRPSOHWHRYHUWKH\HDUVGXULQJZKLFKFKLOGUHQDUHJURZLQJXS7KHILQDOQRWDEOHILQGLQJLVWKH
KLJKHUVDWLVIDFWLRQOHYHOVHHQDPRQJZRPHQZKRVHDGXOWFKLOGUHQDUHQRORQJHUOLYLQJLQWKH
KRPHFRQWUDVWHGE\WKHQHJDWLYHFRHIILFLHQWLIWKHDEVHQWFKLOGUHQDUHXQGHU1RHIIHFWRI
DGXOWFKLOGUHQLVVHHQIRUPHQ+RZHYHUDVIRUZRPHQWKHUHLVHYLGHQFHRIDQHJDWLYHHIIHFW
RIFKLOGUHQXQGHUZKRDUHQRWOLYLQJLQWKHKRPHDSDWWHUQZHUHWXUQWREHORZ
:LWK D IHZ H[FHSWLRQV WKH UHPDLQLQJ FRQWURO YDULDEOHV ZKHQ VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW KDYH
VLJQVWKDWDUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKLQWXLWLRQ7KHVWDWXVRIEHLQJPDUULHGLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKKLJKHU
VDWLVIDFWLRQIRUERWKPHQDQGZRPHQZKLOHWKDWRIEHLQJVHSDUDWHGKDVDVLJQLILFDQWO\QHJDWLYH
DVVRFLDWLRQIRUPHQRQO\%HLQJGLYRUFHGKDVDSRVLWLYHFRHIILFLHQWIRUERWKVH[HVDVRPHZKDW
VXUSULVLQJUHVXOWWKDWFRQWUDGLFWVQHJDWLYHDVVRFLDWLRQVIRXQGLQRWKHUVWXGLHV$QJHOHV
/XFDV6WXW]HUDQG)UH\EXWRQHWKDWPD\EHSLFNLQJXSDODJJHGLPSDFW,QWKLV
12
UHJDUGPRUHUHFHQWVWXGLHVIURP&ODUNDQGFROOHDJXHVILQGWKDWERWKGLYRUFHGPHQ
DQGZRPHQDUHVLJQLILFDQWO\PRUHVDWLVILHGZLWKWKHLUOLIH\HDUVDIWHUWKHHYHQWLQWKH%ULWLVK
SDQHODQG\HDUVLQWKH*HUPDQSDQHOGDWD&ODUNDQG*HRUJHOOLV&ODUNHWDO
$JH LV DQRWKHU YDULDEOH WKDW GRHV QRW IROORZ WKH FRPPRQO\ REVHUYHG SDWWHUQ RI D 8VKDSH
LQVWHDGLQGLFDWLQJDQLQFUHDVHLQVDWLVIDFWLRQRYHUWKHWRDJHEUDFNHWVUHODWLYHWRWKHEDVH
FDVHRIWRDPRQJZRPHQFRQWUDVWHGE\DQLQFUHDVLQJO\ORZHUVDWLVIDFWLRQLQROGHUDJH
EUDFNHWV DPRQJ PHQ 7KH LQGLFDWRUV IRU SRRU KHDOWK DQG HLWKHU EHLQJ XQHPSOR\HG RU QRW
ZRUNLQJ DOO KDYH QHJDWLYH DVVRFLDWLRQV SDUWLFXODUO\ DPRQJ PHQ ,QFRPH KDV D SRVLWLYH
FRHIILFLHQW RQH WKDW LV RI URXJKO\ HTXDO PDJQLWXGH IRU ZRPHQ DQG PHQ /DVWO\ VLPLODU WR
6WXW]HUDQG)UH\ZHVHHDQHJDWLYHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHSUHVHQFHRIDGXOWVRWKHU
WKDQWKHVSRXVHDQGVDWLVIDFWLRQIRUERWKVH[HV
13
7DEOH&RHIILFLHQWVIURPDIL[HGHIIHFWVUHJUHVVLRQ
<HDUSULRUWRELUWK
&±
&±
&±
&±
&&
&&
&&
&&
&&
&&
&&&
&&&
&&&
&&&
&&&&
$OONLGV!PRYHGRXW
$Q\NLGV PRYHGRXW
$Q\NLGV!LQKRPH
0DUULHG
'LYRUFHG
6HSDUDWHG
3RRUKHDOWK
3DUWWLPH
1RWHPSOR\HG
8QHPSOR\HG
2WKHUZRUNVWDWXV
8QLYHUVLW\GHJUHH
OQ,QFRPH
$JH
$JH
$JH
$JH
$JH
!DJH
2WKHUDGXOWVSUHVHQW
<HDUGXPPLHV
1XPEHURIREVHUYDWLRQV
:RPHQ
<HV
VLJQLILFDQWDWOHYHOVLJQLILFDQWDWOHYHO
14
0HQ
<HV
7R H[SORUH ZKHWKHU WKH DVVRFLDWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH PRGHOHG FRYDULDWHV DQG KDSSLQHVV YDU\
DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH LQWULQVLF KDSSLQHVV OHYHO )LJXUH SUHVHQWV D JUDSKLFDO GHSLFWLRQ RI
ERRWVWUDSSHGFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVIURPWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHSDQHOTXDQWLOHUHJUHVVLRQ
7KHILJXUHDOVRLQFOXGHVWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHVWDQGDUGIL[HGHIIHFWV
HVWLPDWHVDVDEDVLVIRUFRPSDULVRQ:LWKUHJDUGWRWKHFRHIILFLHQWVRQWKHYDULDEOHVLQGLFDWLQJ
FKLOGUHQXQGHUWKHTXDQWLOHHVWLPDWHV DUHODUJHO\LQOLQHZLWKWKRVHRIWKHVWDQGDUGIL[HG
HIIHFWV$SRVLWLYHDQGVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQLQWKH\HDUSUHFHGLQJELUWKDQGLQWKH
WZR \HDUV WKHUHDIWHU LV VHHQ IRU ERWK PHQ DQG ZRPHQ RYHU PRVW RI WKH TXDQWLOHV )RU WKH
VXEVHTXHQWDJHPL[HVRIFKLOGUHQKRZHYHUWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVRYHUODSZLWKRUOLHFORVHO\
DERYHRUEHORZ]HUR7KHVHUHVXOWVDUHEURDGO\VXSSRUWLYHRIWKHVWURQJHUYHUVLRQRIWKHDGDSWLRQ
K\SRWKHVLVEH\RQGWKHILUVWEDE\SDUHQWVRISUHDGXOWFKLOGUHQDUHQRPRUHRUOHVVKDSS\WKDQ
QRQSDUHQWV
7R JDXJH WKH GHJUHH RI KHWHURJHQHLW\ LQ WKH HVWLPDWHV 7DEOH SUHVHQWV )WHVWV IRU WKH
HTXLYDOHQFHRIWKHFRHIILFLHQWVLQWKHWKDQGWKTXDQWLOHV$PRQJPHQQRQHRIWKHVHWHVWV
DUHVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWIRUWKHLQGLFDWRUVRIFKLOGUHQXQGHU6RPHZKDWPRUHYDULDWLRQLV
VHHQ DPRQJ ZRPHQ ZLWK IRXU RI WKH )WHVWV EHLQJ VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW 1HYHUWKHOHVV DV
QRWHGDERYHPRVWRIWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJFRHIILFLHQWVKDYHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVWKDWRYHUODS]HUR
IRU WKH HQWLUH UDQJH RI TXDQWLOHV WKH RQH H[FHSWLRQ EHLQJ WKH FRHIILFLHQW RI && 7DNHQ
WRJHWKHUWKHVHUHVXOWVSURYLGHOLWWOHVXSSRUWIRUWKHLGHDWKDWWKHDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQSUHDGXOW
FKLOGUHQDQGKDSSLQHVVGHSHQGVRQKRZKDSS\WKHSDUHQWLV
15
)LJXUH4XDQWLOHUHJUHVVLRQIRUWKHVHOHFWHGFKLOGUHQYDULDEOHV9HUWLFDOD[HVVKRZ
FRHIILFLHQWVRIWKHUHVSHFWLYHLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHVDQGKRUL]RQWDOD[HVUHSUHVHQWTXDQWLOHVRI
WKHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHV7KHHUURUEDUVFRUUHVSRQGWRFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDO
:RPHQ
0HQ
16
17
7DEOH)WHVWVIRUWKHHTXLYDOHQFHRIWKHFRHIILFLHQWVLQWKHWKDQGWKGHFLOHV
<HDUSULRUWRELUWK
&±
&±
&±
&±
&&
&&
&&
&&
&&
&&
&&&
&&&
&&&
&&&
&&&&
$OONLGV!PRYHGRXW
$Q\NLGV PRYHGRXW
$Q\NLGV!LQKRPH
0DUULHG
'LYRUFHG
6HSDUDWHG
3RRUKHDOWK
3DUWWLPH
1RWHPSOR\HG
8QHPSOR\HG
2WKHUZRUNVWDWXV
8QLYHUVLW\GHJUHH
OQ,QFRPH
$JH
$JH
$JH
$JH
$JH
!DJH
2WKHUDGXOWVSUHVHQW
:RPHQ
0HQ
VLJQLILFDQWDWOHYHOVLJQLILFDQWDWOHYHO
0RUHSURQRXQFHGGLVFUHSDQFLHVE\TXDQWLOHDUHUHYHDOHGZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHDVVRFLDWLRQVZLWK
DGXOW FKLOGUHQ DW OHDVW DPRQJ ZRPHQ )RU H[DPSOH WKH FRHIILFLHQW FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR DGXOW
FKLOGUHQKDYLQJOHIWWKHKRPHLVSRVLWLYHIRUZRPHQDQGEHFRPHVVLJQLILFDQWO\ODUJHUEHWZHHQ
WKHWKDQGWKTXDQWLOHVZKLOHLWLVQHJDWLYHDQGRIUHODWLYHO\KRPRJHQHRXVPDJQLWXGHIRU
18
PHQ :KLOH WKH ILQGLQJV OHQG VXSSRUW WR WKH SUHYLRXV UHVXOWV RQ WKH VPDOO SRVLWLYH HIIHFW RI
HPSW\QHVWIRUZRPHQ'HQQHUVWHLQHWDO+DQVHQHWDOWKH\UXQFRXQWHUWRWKH
HYLGHQFHRIQRFRQVHTXHQFHVRIWKHHPSW\QHVWSKDVHIRUIDWKHUV+DQVHQHWDO)RUWKH
FDVHRIDGXOWFKLOGUHQVWLOO OLYLQJLQWKHKRPHWKHUHLVDQHJDWLYHDVVRFLDWLRQDPRQJZRPHQ
ZKRVH VDWLVIDFWLRQ OLHV EHORZ WKH PHGLDQ TXDQWLOH SDUWLDOO\ FRUURERUDWLQJ WKH ILQGLQJ RI
3XGURYVNDXVLQJ86GDWD+RZHYHUEH\RQGWKHPHGLDQTXDQWLOHDVLJQUHYHUVDOLVVHHQ
KDSSLHUZRPHQUHJLVWHUDVOLJKWO\KLJKHUOHYHORIKDSSLQHVVZKHQDGXOWFKLOGUHQDUHSUHVHQW
$PRQJPHQWKHVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWFRHIILFLHQWVDUHXQLIRUPO\QHJDWLYHDQGOLPLWHGWRWKH
UDQJHIDOOLQJEHWZHHQWKHWKDQGWKTXDQWLOHV
$GGLWLRQDOHYLGHQFHIRUKHWHURJHQHLW\LQWKHFRUUHODWHVRIKDSSLQHVVLVVHHQIRUVHYHUDORIWKH
FRQWUROYDULDEOHV)LJXUH3DUWLFXODUO\QRWHZRUWK\DUHWKHSDWWHUQVIRULQFRPHDQGDXQLYHUVLW\
GHJUHH$VLQ%LQGHUDQG&RDG¶VVWXG\XVLQJ%ULWLVKGDWDERWKVHWVRIHVWLPDWHVLQGLFDWH
DVWHDG\GHFUHDVHLQWKHVL]HRIWKHFRHIILFLHQWVRYHUKLJKHUTXDQWLOHV7KHVLJQRQLQFRPHLV
SRVLWLYHDQGVLJQLILFDQWRYHUWKHHQWLUHUDQJHEXWGHFUHDVHVIURPDPDJQLWXGHRIWR
IRUZRPHQDQGIURPWRIRUPHQDERXWDGURSIRUERWKVH[HVEHWZHHQWKHWK
DQG WK TXDQWLOHV $PRQJ PHQ WKH VLJQ RI WKH FRHIILFLHQW LQGLFDWLQJ D XQLYHUVLW\ GHJUHH
VZLWFKHVVLJQV±IURPSRVLWLYHWRQHJDWLYH±RYHUWKHKLJKHUTXDQWLOHV$VLPLODUEXWPLUURUHG
SDWWHUQ LV VHHQ IRU WKH FRHIILFLHQWV LQGLFDWLQJ WKH SUHVHQFH RI RWKHU DGXOWV LQ WKH KRPH
XQHPSOR\PHQW GLYRUFH DQG VHSDUDWLRQ IRU ERWK VH[HV WKH QHJDWLYH DVVRFLDWLRQ LV QRWDEO\
ZHDNHULIQRWEHFRPLQJSRVLWLYHDPRQJLQWULQVLFDOO\PRUHVDWLVILHGLQGLYLGXDOV
19
)LJXUH4XDQWLOHUHJUHVVLRQIRUWKHVHOHFWHGFRQWUROYDULDEOHV9HUWLFDOD[HVVKRZ
FRHIILFLHQWVRIWKHUHVSHFWLYHLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHVDQGKRUL]RQWDOD[HVUHSUHVHQW
TXDQWLOHVRIWKHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHV7KHHUURUEDUVFRUUHVSRQGWRFRQILGHQFH
LQWHUYDO
:RPHQ
0HQ
20
&RQFOXVLRQ
'UDZLQJRQSDQHOGDWDVSDQQLQJ\HDUVLQ*HUPDQ\WKLVSDSHUKDVHFRQRPHWULFDOO\HVWLPDWHG
FRYDULDWHVRIOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQZLWKDQH\HWRZDUGLVRODWLQJYDULDWLRQLQWKHUROHRISDUHQWKRRG
RYHUWKHIDPLO\OLIHF\FOH7KHDQDO\VLVKDVWZRPDLQGLVWLQJXLVKLQJIHDWXUHVWKHDSSOLFDWLRQD
SDQHO TXDQWLOH UHJUHVVLRQ FRPELQHG ZLWK DQ HPSLULFDO VSHFLILFDWLRQ WKDW LQFOXGHV GXPP\
YDULDEOHVFDSWXULQJWKHDJHFRPSRVLWLRQRIELRORJLFDOFKLOGUHQ7RJHWKHUWKHVHIHDWXUHVDOORZ
XVWRIRUPDOO\WHVWIRUKHWHURJHQHLW\LQWKHDVVRFLDWLRQRIFKLOGUHQZLWKKDSSLQHVVDFFRUGLQJWR
ERWKWKHLQWULQVLFKDSSLQHVVRIWKHSDUHQWDQGWKHDJHPL[RIWKHLUFKLOGUHQ%H\RQGWKLVWKH
PRGHOLQFOXGHVLQGLFDWRUVIRUWKH\HDUSULRUWRWKHELUWKDQGWKHSHULRGDIWHUWKHFKLOGUHQUHDFK
DGXOWKRRGZLWKWKHODWWHUGLVWLQJXLVKLQJEHWZHHQZKHWKHUVRPHVWLOOOLYHDWKRPHRUKDYHDOO
PRYHGRXW7KUHHPDLQFRQFOXVLRQVHPHUJHIURPWKHDQDO\VLV
)LUVWQRWZLWKVWDQGLQJGHVFULSWLYHHYLGHQFHWKDWSDUHQWVDUHVRPHZKDWKDSSLHUWKDQQRQSDUHQWV
WKHHFRQRPHWULFUHVXOWVSRLQWWRDQRYHUDOOLQVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQSUHDGXOWFKLOGUHQ
DQGKDSSLQHVVIRUERWKZRPHQDQGPHQ:KLOHWKH\HDUSULRUWRDQ\ELUWKDQGWKHWLPHIURP
21
EDE\KRRGWRWKHHQGRIWKHVHFRQG\HDURIWKHILUVWFKLOGLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKKLJKHUKDSSLQHVV
WKLVUHVXOWIDGHVDZD\ZLWKDJHDQGZLWKWKHSUHVHQFHRIVLEOLQJV7KHSRVLWLYHERRVWDVVRFLDWHG
ZLWKWKHSUHVHQFHRIDEDE\WKXVDSSHDUVWREHDRQHWLPHSKHQRPHQRQWKDWRQO\DSSOLHVWRWKH
ILUVW FKLOG &RQWUDVWLQJ ZLWK PXFK RI WKH H[LVWLQJ OLWHUDWXUH WKH SUHSRQGHUDQFH RI HYLGHQFH
SUHVHQWHGKHUHGRHVQRWVXSSRUWWKHLGHDWKDWSHRSOHZLWKFKLOGUHQDUHOHVVKDSS\WKDQFKLOGOHVV
LQGLYLGXDOV
6HFRQGWKHUHDUHQRWDEOHGLVFUHSDQFLHVEHWZHHQZRPHQDQGPHQLQWKHHVWLPDWHVSHUWDLQLQJWR
DGXOW FKLOGUHQ :RPHQ UHJLVWHU KLJKHU KDSSLQHVV ZKHQ DOO DGXOW FKLOGUHQ KDYH OHIW WKH
KRXVHKROGZKLOHPHQDUHOHVVKDSS\7KHSDWWHUQLVPRUHFRPSOH[ZKHQDGXOWFKLOGUHQVWLOO
UHVLGH LQ WKH KRPH WKH DVVRFLDWLRQ LV QHJDWLYH DPRQJ ZRPHQ EHORZ WKH TXDQWLOH DQG
SRVLWLYHDERYHLW$OHVVSURQRXQFHGQHJDWLYHDVVRFLDWLRQLVDOVRVHHQIRUPHQEHORZWKH
TXDQWLOH7KHVHUHVXOWVSRLQWWRWKHGLIIHUHQWSV\FKRORJLFDOFKDOOHQJHVDQGUHZDUGVWKDWZRPHQ
DQGPHQIDFHGXULQJYDULRXVVWDJHVLQWKHLUUROHVDVSDUHQWV 1RPDJXFKL DQG0LONLH
:KLOH WKH H[DFW FKDQQHOV DUH GLIILFXOW WR LGHQWLI\ WKH\ KLJKOLJKW WKH SRVVLELOLW\ WKDW HDUOLHU
H[SHULHQFHV EHDU RQ ZHOOEHLQJ HYHQ DIWHU FKLOGUHQ KDYH PRYHG RXW RU UHDFK DGXOWKRRG
8PEHUVRQHWDO
7KLUGWKHDQDO\VLVXQFRYHUVVFDQWHYLGHQFHIRUWKHSURSRVLWLRQWKDWWKHLQIOXHQFHRISUHDGXOW
FKLOGUHQRQKDSSLQHVVGHSHQGVRQWKHKDSSLQHVVRIWKHSDUHQW&RPSDUHGZLWKVHYHUDORIWKH
FRQWUROYDULDEOHVVXFKDVLQFRPHDQGPDULWDOVWDWXVWKHSDUHQWKRRGYDULDEOHVKDYHUHODWLYHO\
XQLIRUPHIIHFWVDFURVVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIKDSSLQHVVVFRUHV*LOEHUW¶VFRPPHQWRQSDUHQWKRRG
DQG ZHOOEHLQJ PD\ SURYLGH VRPH LQVLJKW LQWR WKLV UHVXOW ³WKH FRPSXOVLRQ WR FDUH IRU RXU
FKLOGUHQZDVORQJDJRZULWWHQLQWRRXU'1$VRZHWRLODQGVZHDWORVHVOHHSDQGKDLUSOD\
QXUVHKRXVHNHHSHUFKDXIIHXUDQGFRRNDQGZHGRDOOWKDWEHFDXVHQDWXUHMXVWZRQ¶WKDYHLW
DQ\RWKHUZD\´*LOEHUW*LYHQWKDWSDUHQWKRRGLVPRUHIXQGDPHQWDOWRRXUQDWXUHWKDQ
PRUHFXOWXUHVSHFLILFHYHQWVVXFKDVPDUULDJHRUGLYRUFHLWPLJKWEHWKDWWKHPHFKDQLVPEHKLQG
WKHSDUHQWKRRGH[SHULHQFHVDUHOHVVSURQHWREHDIIHFWHGE\SHUVRQDOLW\GLIIHUHQFHVRULQWULQVLF
KDSSLQHVV
22
%LEOLRJUDSK\
$QJHOHV/&KLOGUHQDQGOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQ-+DSSLQHVV6WXG±
GRLV]
$QJULVW-'3LVFKNH-60RVWO\KDUPOHVVHFRQRPHWULFVDQHPSLULFLVW¶VFRPSDQLRQ
3ULQFHWRQ8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV3ULQFHWRQ1-GRLEH
%HFNHU*6$WUHDWLVHRQWKHIDPLO\+DUYDUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV&DPEULGJH0$
%LQGHU0&RDG$)URPDYHUDJH-RH¶VKDSSLQHVVWRPLVHUDEOH-DQHDQGFKHHUIXO
-RKQXVLQJTXDQWLOHUHJUHVVLRQVWRDQDO\]HWKHIXOOVXEMHFWLYHZHOOEHLQJGLVWULEXWLRQ-
(FRQ%HKDY2UJDQ±GRLMMHER
%ODQFKIORZHU'*,QWHUQDWLRQDOHYLGHQFHRQZHOOEHLQJLQ.UXHJHU$%(G
0HDVXULQJWKH6XEMHFWLYH:HOO%HLQJRI1DWLRQV1DWLRQDO$FFRXQWVRI7LPH8VHDQG
:HOO%HLQJ8QLYHUVLW\RI&KLFDJR3UHVVSS±
&DOGZHOO-&&DOGZHOO37KHFXOWXUDOFRQWH[WRIKLJKIHUWLOLW\LQ6XE6DKDUDQ
$IULFD3RSXO'HY5HY±
&DQD\,$$VLPSOHDSSURDFKWRTXDQWLOHUHJUHVVLRQIRUSDQHOGDWD(FRQRP-
±
&ODUN$*HRUJHOOLV<%DFNWREDVHOLQHLQ%ULWDLQDGDSWDWLRQLQWKH%+3636(
ZRUNLQJSDSHUQR
&ODUN$('LHQHU(*HRUJHOOLV</XFDV5(/DJVDQGOHDGVLQOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQௗ
DWHVWRIWKHEDVHOLQHK\SRWKHVLV(FRQRP-±
'HDWRQ$6WRQH$(YDOXDWLYHDQGKHGRQLFZHOOEHLQJDPRQJWKRVHZLWKDQGZLWKRXW
FKLOGUHQDWKRPH3URF1DWO$FDG6FL86$±
GRLSQDV
'HQQHUVWHLQ/'XGOH\(*XWKULH-(PSW\QHVWRUUHYROYLQJGRRU"$SURVSHFWLYH
VWXG\RIZRPHQ¶VTXDOLW\RIOLIHLQPLGOLIHGXULQJWKHSKDVHRIFKLOGUHQOHDYLQJDQGUH
HQWHULQJWKHKRPH3V\FKRO0HG±
'LHQHU('LHQHU&0RVW3HRSOHDUHKDSS\3V\FKRO6FL±
(DVWHUOLQ5$$SX]]OHIRUDGDSWLYHWKHRU\-(FRQ%HKDY2UJDQ±
(DVWHUOLQ5$([SODLQLQJKDSSLQHVV3URF1DWO$FDG6FL86$±
GRLSQDV
*LOEHUW'7'RHVIDWKHUKRRGPDNH\RXKDSS\"7LPH0DJ
*OHQQ1'0F/DQDKDQ67KHHIIHFWVRIFKLOGUHQRQWKHSV\FKRORJLFDOZHOOEHLQJRI
ROGHUDGXOWV-0DUULDJH)DP±
23
+DQVHQ73DUHQWKRRGDQGKDSSLQHVVDUHYLHZRIIRONWKHRULHVYHUVXVHPSLULFDO
HYLGHQFH6RF,QGLF5HV±GRLV\
+DQVHQ76ODJVYROG%0RXP7&KLOGOHVVQHVVDQGSV\FKRORJLFDOZHOOEHLQJLQ
PLGOLIHDQGROGDJHDQH[DPLQDWLRQRISDUHQWDOVWDWXVHIIHFWVDFURVVDUDQJHRIRXWFRPHV
6RF,QGLF5HV±
.RHQNHU5%DVVHWW-U*5HJUHVVLRQTXDQWLOHV(FRQRPHWULFD±
.RHQNHU5+DOORFN.4XDQWLOHUHJUHVVLRQ-(FRQ3HUVSHFWSS±
/XFDV5(7LPHGRHVQRWKHDODOOZRXQGVDORQJLWXGLQDOVWXG\RIUHDFWLRQDQG
DGDSWDWLRQWRGLYRUFH3V\FKRO6FL±
0DUJROLV50\UVN\Ol0$JOREDOSHUVSHFWLYHRQKDSSLQHVVDQGIHUWLOLW\3RSXO
'HY5HY±
0LFKDORV$&0XOWLSOHGLVFUHSDQFLHVWKHRU\0'76RF,QGLF5HV±
1RPDJXFKL.00LONLH0$&RVWVDQGUHZDUGVRIFKLOGUHQWKHHIIHFWVRI
EHFRPLQJDSDUHQWRQDGXOWV¶OLYHV-0DUULDJH)DP±
3XGURYVND73DUHQWKRRGVWUHVVDQGSV\FKRORJLFDOZHOOEHLQJLQODWHPLGOLIHDQGHDUO\
ROGDJH,QW-$JLQJ+XP'HY±
6FKRHQ5.LP<-1DWKDQVRQ&$)LHOGV-$VWRQH10:K\GR$PHULFDQV
ZDQWFKLOGUHQ"3RSXO'HY5HY
6FRWW-$OZLQ')*HQGHUGLIIHUHQFHVLQSDUHQWDOVWUDLQ-)DP,VVXHV±
GRL
6WDQFD/6XIIHUWKHOLWWOHFKLOGUHQௗPHDVXULQJWKHHIIHFWVRISDUHQWKRRGRQZHOOEHLQJ
ZRUOGZLGH-(FRQ%HKDY2UJDQ±
6WXW]HU$)UH\%6'RHVPDUULDJHPDNHSHRSOHKDSS\RUGRKDSS\SHRSOHJHW
PDUULHG"-6RFLR(FRQ±GRLMVRFHF
7RXOHPRQ/9HU\IHZFRXSOHVUHPDLQYROXQWDULO\FKLOGOHVV3RSXODWLRQ3DULV±
8PEHUVRQ'3XGURYVND75HF]HN&3DUHQWKRRGFKLOGOHVVQHVVDQGZHOOEHLQJD
OLIHFRXUVHSHUVSHFWLYH-0DUULDJH)DP±
24

Document 4698438

Italy:healthprofile

1EV-024 - 日本心理学会