19. European Police Congress
600 Days of DAESH
One Leader – One Authority – One Mosque
Submit to it, or be killed
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independend Security Consultant
, February 2016
1
2
Arabellion
3
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
4
History
2003
2004
Ansar al-Islam
from AFG under the lead of
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi
Arab faction in Iraq to counter US Invasion
AQI „(Al Qaeda in Iraq“)
as affiliate of AQC
Planner of 1st ‚dirty bomb‘, killed by US air strike, Jun 7, 2006 in Hibhi
2006
AQI became ISI
(„Islamic State of Iraq“),
Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi
became its leader;
2010
US-sponsored Sahwa militia,
„Sons of Iraq“, found him in a ‚safe house‘
Mastermind Abu Ayyub al-Masri and he killed themselves in a blast
5
,
5
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
History
2010
Comeback of ISI
thanks Iraqi‘s ex-Secret Services
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
infiltrated Syria, built up a Da‘wah-based
spy-network, eliminated secretly enemie‘s
leaders, gained ground (‚creeping exansion‘),
got power in Syria, finally decreted leadership
for Jabhat al-Nusra & created the
4/2013
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham;
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and Syria;
ISIL: Islamic State of Iraq and Levante;
ISIG: Islamic State of Iraq and Great Syria
DAESH: al-dawla al-islaamiyya fi-ali‘raaqwa al-shaam
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
6
6
June 29, 2014: “Islamic State” (IS)
“Caliph Ibrahim”
aka Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
8
Just Call them „DAESH“ !
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
7
The Silent „Architect“ of DAESH
ŒH PL7NFLX4UHGGULZHJLH]Q$UX=
³ÄUR V VHUS PRNH'
WJLW|QHE
Haji Bakr, ex-Iraqi colonel, Ba‘athist.
killed in January 2014 by Syrian rebels
"Lord of the Shadows"
But: It was Ayman al-Zawahiri who proposed the idea of „IS“ to Abu Musad al-Zarqawi - in 2005
9
9
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant, February 2016
Organisational Chart of DAESH
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
10
10
Organisational Chart of DAESH
9
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
DAESH’s Goals
Primary Goal
Establish a Caliphate - a unified,
transnational Islamic state based on
Sharia‘s Law
„Hold“ - Objektive
Obtain allegiance from local and global
factions to promote the creation of global
Caliphate
„Clear“ - Objective
Remove infidels and apostates from the
caliphate
Secondary Goal
Rectify injustices committed by
Western setates through AlMalhammah al-Kubra (great battle)
Objective
Use former Western ISIS fighters as
‚lone wolves‘ to conduct terrorism in
Western states
Dissolve the United States
Objective
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLF
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
HU4
4X N7LPH
HŒ
Œ
SUHVVR
RU
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|
Q|WLJW
W
EHQ|WLJW
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLF
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
GHU4
HU4XL N7LPHŒ
PHŒ
Œ
Œ
HVVRU
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
JW
EHQ|WLJW
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLF
FN7LPHŒ
Œ
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
Ä
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
86
Fin
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
10
http://www.ihs.com/jtic
DAESH
1
Most profilic and predominat
non-state armed group worldwide
3.317 Attacks
(+50% from 2014)
Attacks by the DAESH, its official
affiliates, and its supporters were
recorded in 28 countries worldwide.
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
11
Jabhat al-Nusra
2
Al-Qaeda Syrian affiliate, second
most active group recorded
worldwide
551 Attacks
(slightly reduced from 2014)
Leading member of ‘Jaish al-Fatah’,
the militant Islamist coalition against
Syrian government
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
12
Taliban
4
The Taliban has been reported as
the fourth most active group
worldwide.
502 Attacks
(+ 10 % from 2014)
Significant: Control of Kunduz (Sep)
& Helmand (Dec) = Increasing
capabilities vs. weakness of Afghan
state without NATO assistance
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
13
Ansar Allah
Local terror group in Yemen,
affiliated to DAESH
(Huthi / Al-Shabab al-Muminin)
6
285 Attacks
(+ >100 %, mainly hard targets)
After seizure of Sanaa in Sep 2014,
a Saudi-led coalition started in March
2015 an intervention that continues
to rage.
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Boko Haram
14
8
Rather domestic (regional) terror
group (Niger, Chad, Cameroon)
260 Attacks
(+ 50 % from 2014)
Enduring military pressure, losses of
territory, official DAESH affiliate,
intensified operations in NO, young
female suicide bombers
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
15
Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen 10
Regional terror group
(Somalia & neighbouring countries)
236 Attacks
(negligible increase from 2014)
Asymmetric operations against
domestic security forces and
AMISOM (Killing of 50 Burundian
peacekeepers in June 2015!)
16
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Katibah Nusantara - a distant caliphate?
Ex-“Mujahidin Indonesia Timur“ (MIT)
700 Indonesians
fighting in DAESH
Bahrun Naim, Raqqa: Jakarta blast, Jan 17, 2016
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
17
Balance of Terror (> 2014)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
18
One Leader - One Authority - One
Mosque: Submit to it, or be killed !
,VODPLF&RQYR\LQ6\ULD
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
20
What is ‘Syrian’ with the ‚Syrian War‘?
Assad’s
Army
Nightmarish
Iraq, Iran, Hezbollah, Russia,
Popular Defense Committee,
DAESH
“Proxy War”
13 m displaced
470.000 dead
100.000 ?
Djihadists from 100 countries
Also Ex-Iraqi military, Hamas,
Saudi?
‘enforced disappearances’?
‚Rebels‘
Kurds
Gulf-States, Jordan, Turkey,
USA, Dschihadists, MB - who?
USA, Germany
21
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Division of Islamic (Sunni) Front
New Leader:
Abu Jabbar
Syrien
‚Rebels‘:
Ayman
al-Zawahiri
Cooperation
Ahrar-al-Sham
financed by Kuweit, in coalition with:
Dschaisch-al Islam,
FSA Brigades,
(distant enemy)
Nureddin Zengi Movement,
North-Front,
AQI (Jabhat al-Nusra)
Abu Muhammad South-Front,
Feylag al-Sham,
al-Jaulani aka
Al-Tawhid Brigade, renegades
al-Golani
Muthanna Movement
Thuwwar al-Sham
AQIM (Mahgreb);
Harakat Hazm
AQAP (Arab Pensinsula);
Liwa al-Haq
Al-Shabaab;
Taliban AFG; Taliban PAK.
....
provinces & renegades
Al Qaeda-C
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
renegades
Commanders
Yusuf al-Masri
Hassan Aboud ...
DAESH
(close enemy)
Abu Bakr
al-Baghdadi
24
24
The Realm of Terror - 250.000 km2
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
9
The Realm of Terror - 245.000 km2
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
22
Recruitment
400.000 men out of Work!
„We want a new and fresh army“
May 2003:
Paul Bremer,
Leader of the
‚Coalition
Provisional
Authority‘ ,
issued Order
Number 2,
disbanding
the Iraqi Army
23
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Recruitment
IRAQ:
Easily to recruite: Unemployed men (15-25 Y); Lacking
education; Sunni minority; Marginalised in political
process by PM Nuri al-Maliki & his Shiite-dominated
government.
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
28
28
Recruitment
1.400 prisoners freed
alone in Mossul, Summer 2014
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
24
Recruitment
Submit to it...
Nothing is more helpful in recruiting but the fear of suppression by Iraq‘s Schia Death Squads (ISOF)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
25
Recruitment
...or be killed!
400 civilians kidnapped in Deir ez-Zor and about
300 civilians killed in massacre (SOHR Report, Jan 17, 2016)
26
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Sexual Jihad
Submit to it
...
or be executed
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
27
Recruitment
Child Soldiers: Listen & Obeye
)HDUOHVVFKHDSHDVLO\WRPRWLYDWHEUDLQZDVKLQJ«6RSKLH¶VFKRLFH
28
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Recruitment
„Hide and Seek“ - Caliph-style
4DODDWDO5DKED5XLQLQ'HLU(]=RU6\ULD
http://breaking911.com/graphic-isis-child-soldiers-search-ruins-for-prisoners-then-shoot-them/
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
30
Recruitment
DAESH Training Camp at the Al-Farouq Institute
(International Business Times, Dec 9, 2015)
..batallions
Video: Videoelephant_german-CO
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
29
Recruitment
Child Soldiers: Trained to Execute
6RXUFH6FUHHQVKRWRIDOEDZDEDQHZV0DUFK
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
31
Recruitment
Child Soldiers: Used to Execute
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
… batallions
32
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Recruitment
-
No Problems
(PEW RESEARCH CENTER Apr 23, 2015)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independendt Security Consultant February 2016
33
Recruitment
Ä$&UD]\
*X\³
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
‚Donald Trump
is greedy, loud,
and incalculable‘
(SZ Jan 23, 2016)
PRVWKHOSIXO
He‘s calling "for a complete and total shutdown of Muslims entering the USA until our representatives can figure out what is goingon."
39
,
39
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Foreign Terrorist Fighters
$XJXVW
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultan February 2016
!7RMRLQ
XSWR
ILJKWHUV
'LIIHULQJILJXUHV
GXHWRGLIIHUHQW
VRXUFHV
/RVVHVDUHKDUG
WRYHULI\
34
Foreign Terrorist Fighters
Recruitment begins at information centers, in
mosques, meeting spots: Distributing Qur‘ans,
leflets, handout of videos & CDs, effective smcampaigns, talks,....
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LP HŒ
'HNRP SUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
㻌
Distribution of Qu‘rans in Wuppertal, N24
,
41
41
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
'HFHPEHU
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
35
Foreign Terrorist Fighters
36
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Migrants & Refugees
Syria 2016
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
470.000 dead
100.000 disappeared
13 million displaced
3 million in Turkey
1.8 million in Lebanon
0.8 million in Jordan
Aleppo, once the „City of Light“
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
37
Migrants & Refugees
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
Syria 2016
UN: Up to 300,000 of civilians cut off from food and aid
if Syrian government forces surround rebel-held parts of
(Huffington Post, Feb 9, 2016)
Aleppo
,
45
45
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Migrants & Refugees
Iraq 2016
1 million
3 million
Iraqi orphans;
Iraqi displaced;
30 - 40
3 million
civilian deaths / day (since „mission accomplished“);
Iraqi children suffer post-traumatic stress
disorder;
US Americans wounded, 4,500 dead;
$ 1 Trillion Financial costs, at least;
$ 6 Trillion Reconstruction costs in the next
40 year (Iraq!)
30,000
„Moment of Success“ ? (Barack Obama, Dec 14, 2011)
„It‘s harder to end a war than begin one“
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
38
Migrants & Refugees
UNHCR 2014 Global Report (June!)
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
If You Think Europe Has a Refugee
Crisis, You’re Not Looking Hard Enough
anon, Iran, Ethiopia, Jordan, Kenya, Chad, Uganda, China
39
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Migrants & Refugees
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
Jordan blocks 12.000 Syrian refugees in demilitarized zone (UNHCR/HRW, Dec 12, 2015)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
39
Migrants & Refugees
‚Europe or Dead!‘
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
"Sie können
1 Million
Menschen
„Sie können
nichtnicht
1 Million
Menschen
als Asylanten
behandeln.
als Asylanten
behandeln.
ist eine
Frage
Migration,
Es ist Es
eine
Frage
derder
Migration,
zum Teil auch der Invasion.“
zum
Teil auch der Invasion“
(Henryk M. Broder, BR, 09.11.2015)
(Henryk M. Broder, BR, 09.11.2015)
41
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Weapon of Mass Migration ?
We will conquer Rome and Andalusia,
by Allah‘s permission
4XLOOLDP)RXQGDWLRQ)HEUXDU\
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
42
Weapon of Mass Migration?
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
„IS militants smuggled to Europe“
Libyan Government adviser Abdul Basit Haroun, May 17, 2015, BBC; Derna
43
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
„Taharrusch dschama'i “
Hamburg (218 complaints),
Berlin,
Düsseldorf,
Bielefeld,
Frankfurt/M,
Stuttgart,
Weil am Rhein,
München (BY: 27 complaints)
Stockholm (8/2015),
Kalmar,
Malmö,
Zürich,
Salzburg,
Wien, ...
Jan 30, 2016: Passau
Dec 31, 2015:
„Shame of Cologne“
1,100 criminal charges
„Cologne Portent“
„varnish of civilization ripped“ vs. „moralistic infantilism“?
45
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
„Taharrusch dschama'i “
POL-K: 160101-1-K/LEV Ausgelassene Stimmung - Feiern weitgehend friedlich
01.01.2016 – 08:57
Die Polizei Köln zieht Bilanz
Gag Order ?
„Wie im Vorjahr verliefen die meisten
Silvesterfeierlichkeiten auf den Rheinbrücken,
in der Kölner Innenstadt und in Leverkusen
friedlich. Die Polizisten schritten hauptsächlich
bei Körperverletzungsdelikten und Ruhestörungen
ein….
Kurz vor Mitternacht musste der Bahnhofsvorplatz
im Bereich des Treppenaufgangs zum Dom durch
Uniformierte geräumt werden. Um eine Massenpanik
durch Zünden von pyrotechnischer Munition bei den
circa 1000 Feiernden zu verhindern, begannen die
Beamten kurzfristig die Platzfläche zu räumen.“
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
46
„Taharrusch dschama'i “ - Arabia
War Index of Males (15/19 vs. 55/59) is 3:6
= Aggressivity, Prey-Mode, Strayer
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
47
„Taharrusch dschama'i “
organised crime - flash mob - rape jihad - terror act ?
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
48
Crime Statistics 2015 – 2016 ?
„Migrant Crime Skyrockets“
(Bild/Gatestone Institute, Feb 21, 2016)
Confidential Report:
208,344 solved crimes in 2015
(+80 % from 2014) = 570/Day
How many unsolved crimes (50% +X) ?
Dark Number ?
Percentage of ‚Specific Foreigner‘s Crimes‘ ?
No Data from NRW !
10% of IRQ/SYR-migrants arrived, 90% to come ??
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
56
Secret Dossier
*
*
(BKA in PNP Jan 15, 2016)
850 Germans traveled to ‘Syria’
- did they fight with DAESH (?)
300 returned to Germany plus
420 additional „persons of
interest“ (PoI/Gefährder)
(to be observed? --- ROFL !)
*
8.000 Salafists in Germany,
Recruitment of Migrants
(BfV Jan 27, 2016: 230)
-
Nov 17, 2015: Soccer-game D-NL, Hanover
Dec 31, 2015: New Year‘s Eve, Munich
Feb 04, 2016: Arrests of four PoIs (i.a. Algerian jihadist) in BR, NI & NW (i.a. refugee camp in Attendorn Sauerland ) - French passports, akas....
Feb 16, 2016: Raid against ‘Islamischer Förderverein’, HB
49
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Secret Dossier
(BKA in PNP Jan 15, 2016)
More than 4 million have fled Syria since 2011
(7/2015)
BKA: Thousands of general informations
24 investigations
213 special notes to DAESH
18 investigations
230 acquisition contacts
(BfV, Jan 27, 2016)
... „small single figure of evidence to members of terror organisations
specifically channeled to Germany/Europe within the stream of refugees“
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
50
Weapon of Mass Migration ?
Oct 7, 2015: ‘IS’ Fighter Captured
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
Feb 4, 2016: Successful raid in Berlin
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
55
Without A Trace ...
Europol warns: Greatest terrorist threat ever!
5.000 active jihadists in the EU (SecurityIntelligence, Feb 21,2016)
In 2014/15 more than 10.000 unaccompanied
male juveniles (migrants) lost (SZ-Feb 2, 2016)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
TOP Secret Analysis
(German Intelligence Services)
Realistic Worst-Case-Scenario in EU Key Findings:
DAESH‘s Next Key War Theatre shall be Europe
2015-Flood of Refugees: 200.000 Potential Fighters
Already present:
20.000 - 30.000 ‚Sleepers‘
2016-Flood of Refugees: 200.000 Potential Fighters
2015-Refugees prepared the field: „It‘s Schlaraffia“
After Next Flood: Elimination of ‚Kufr‘, establishing IS
Ä9HUWUDXOLFKHU6FKZHL]HU%ULHI´1UYRP-DQXDU
52
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Weapon of Mass Migration ?
Tens of thousands
of stolen passports
in blank from Syria,
Iraq & Tunisia (Dec 21,2015, n-tv)
.. and the special machines to produce passports
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
53
Weapon of Mass Migration ?
Dec 12, 2015 - Airport Istanbul:
Austrian
Austrian
passports
passports
148 EU passports seized
54
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Weapon of Mass Migration ?
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LP HŒ
'HNRP SUHV V RUij
EHQ|WLJW
Syrian Passport: via Deepweb, Facebook, or WhatsApp
$750 – 2,000
(motherboard.de)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
Financing
Central Bank of Mossul, Summer 2014: $429 m
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
82
Financing
„The Gulf States pound hundreds of millions
of dollars and tens of thousands of tons of
military weapons into anyone who would
fight against Assad“ (Biden, Oct 2014, Harvad‘s Kenney School)
„CIA/Saudi funding of terrorists greater than
previously realised”
(Helena Cobran, ME-Expert, NYT, Jan 16,2016 )
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
57
Financing
6=1RYHPEHU
60
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Financing
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
Ankara's involvement in the illegal oil trade by „living68pipelines“
68
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Financing
Ongoing Economic Deals between DAESH & and Russian
Stroftransgaz/Hesco: Russian engineers working under
protection of DAESH? Protection Racket $50K/M
Tuweinan Gas Facility,FP, Feb 9, 2016
86
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Financing
The 8-Million DAESH makes most of its money by
Plunder
(one-time money, $1.2 billion in
2014, $500 million in 2015,
by
robbing captured IRQ
banks),
Extortion
($600 million)
Taxation
($ 1 million each day, 50% on
salaries of govt
$25,00
$2,20employees)
Kidnapping/
($20 million)
Ransom
Penalities/
Dues
($? Million)
1 ltr
$5,00
$0,30
NYT, May 2015 & Rand Corporation, quoted in Business Insider, June 2015
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
58
Financing
Wheat farmers,
Transport entrepreneurs,
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
Millers,
EHQ|WLJW
Bakers,
....
They all have to pay Zakât (if Muslim)
or Dschizya (if Dhimmï)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
62
Financing
“ISIS needs between $523.5 million and $815.3 million a
year to run its operations, including to pay its fighters,
run social services, and buy weapons and ammunition.”
$22-55 million taxing antiquities smuggling
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
64
Financing
Drugs
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
59
Financing
Kidnapping
Since US occupation of Iraq in 4/2003
2014 Kidnapping strongly re-emerged (‘IS’)
2015 (Sep 10) 18 Turkish workers kidnapped in Baghdad while
working on a soccer stadium project (Shiite “Death
Squad“ requested to lift Turkish siege on two Shiite
towns, success)
2015 (Dec 16) 100 Qatari hunters abducted by about 100
gunmen in Iraq, southern Muthanna province; fate still
unknown, $1 million ransom requested )
2016 (Jan 17) Three Americans abducted south of Baghdad,
fate unknown
2013 - to date: Large-scale slave trade
Shia (Iran) or Sunni (DAESH) - who is to blame
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
65
?
Financing
...
Iraq,
Sinai,
Egypt,
China,
Kosovo
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
ZEIT online / AP, Feb 18, 2015: UN Security Council called for investigation
63
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Financing
“Economic Jihad”:
* Pyramid Scheme
(2-digit Million-Euro tax
fraud, detected by Bavarian
taxmen).FAZ, Feb 14, 2016
*Counterfeiting/
Pirating
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
(Cigarettes, designer clothes
credit cards, documents, CD,
Nike trainers, captagon, ....)
THE NEXUS OF OC & TE
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
FARC, Hezbollah, Hamas, Al Qaeda, GSPC, LeT, DAESH...
58
Financing
DAESH’s own currency
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
21-carat gold coin (~ $139) ‘Dinar’
(‘Dirham’ in silver, ‘Flus’ in bronze)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
61
Military Equipment
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
2,300 Captured US Military Vehicles turned into
Moving Bombs (Mossul, Summer 2014)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
67
Military Equipment
AK-103-2 & F2000,
sold by Belgian
FN Herstal
to Libya,
Nov 2009
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LP HŒ
'HNRP SUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
Palestinian Islamic Jihad's al-Quds Brigade,
‚Military Parade‘ in August 2015
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
68
Military Equipment
Sulaymaniyah
SZ, Jan 22, 2016: G3/36 ~ $1.600, P1 $1.200
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
73
Military Equipment
„Missed Weapons“?
Oct 2015
Iraqi Army detected large arsenal with US weapons, e.g.TOW II
Anti-Tank Guided Missiles in DAESH area close to Falluhja
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
69
Military Equipment
FN-6
Where are the Ukrainian missiles from?
,QWHO1HZVRUJ
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant
, February 2016
70
Military Equipment
6LGHZLQGHUVWR6$0V"
Military Equipment Military Equipment
Is there a DAESH version of SAM?
At least 10 civilians dead, 40 wounded by rockets in south Syria, EFEDamascus3, Feb 2016
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
71
Military Equipment
Confirmed:
DAESH attacked 35 Kurdish troops in
Rebel/IRQ with Sulfur Mustard Gas
(2015)
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LP HŒ
'HNRP SUHV V RUij
EHQ|WLJW
Iraq’s chemical arsenal proved to have been
destroyed, so what?
* Captured (hidden) Syrian stockpiles?
* Self-made in Mossul with precursors
and experts at hand? More available?
Reuters, Feb 15, 2016, quoting an anonymous source of OPCW
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
58
Communications
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
74
Communications
DAESH counts for 200.000 entries/day
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LP HŒ
'HNRP SUHV V RUij
EHQ|WLJW
Text message services;
What‘s app?
Messenger;
Facebook;
YouTube;
Twitter;
IRC; JustPaste.it; Sound Cloud;
Telegram Messenger;
Video chat;
Snapchat;
Cryptography (e.g.pgp);
Paltalk...
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
75
Communications
#ISIS shifts to ‘dark
web’ to escape
#Anonymous hacktivists
following #OpParis
http://on.rt.com/6x6d
Only few hours after the Paris attack on Nov 13, 2015
DAESH claimed its responsibility in the darknet
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
76
Communications
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
77
Communications
Krypto-App ‚ALRAWI‘
DAESH‘s new Alternative to App Telegram or Twitter
Source: Ghost Security Group, in: Defence One , Jan 18, 2016
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
78
Communications
Ardit FERIZI, 20, Kosovar, IT-student in Malaysia,
arrested in 9/2015 for hacking data of 1.351 US-military
personal supplied to DAESH extradited to USA
(security affairs, Jan 30, 2016)
First case of terrorist hacker
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
79
Summary
First terrorist organisation demonstrating a previously
unknown amonunt of skills in various different fields:
Military Strategy
Secret Services
Media and PR
Administration
A totalitarian, expansive, hegemonial
borderless and vision based project
Jan 2015
LIBYA
PARIS
Charlie Hotel
Hebdo shooting
April 2015
TUNESIA YEMEN
Museum Mosque
shooting bombing
130 dead
July 2015
TUNESIA
CAIRO
Beach resort Embassy
shooting explosion
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Oct 2015
TURKEY
Peace
Rally
bombing
EGYPT
Russian
Plane
224 dead
PARIS
Attacks
130 dead
80
Terror Hotbeds 2016 - Syria …
Feb 21, 2016, Damascus: Two Car Bombs and
Two Suicide Bombers.
62 dead, ~200 injured,
Close to Holy Shrine of
Hazrat Zeinab;
Feb 21, 2016, Homs:
Twin Bomb Attack
(Near Homs),
57 dead, ~ 100 injured ;
Jan 31, 2016, Damascus: Bomb Attack
60 dead, ~ 110 injured ;
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
56
.
Terror Hotbeds 2016 - Libya
Libya - Springboard for EU invasion
DAESH starts building an air force in
Libya
Officials reveal DAESH fighters using flight simulators to
train pilots in Libya;
UN report lists up to 3,000 DAESH (?)
jihadists in Libya, the strategic state
for DAESH.
(Feb 12, 2015)
86
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Terror Hotbeds 2016 - Libya
Key: How strong is DAESH in Libya ?
Doubled to 5,000 – 6,500 (F: 10,000) from 2014
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
...on a glide slope
to SYR/IRQ ?
ISW, Feb19, 2016
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
44
Terror Hotbeds 2016 - Palestina
3rd INTIFADA?
Caliph Ibrahim, Audiomessage:
{IS}„has not forgotten Palestine for a single moment!“
(Security Intelligence.org, 27.12.2015)
,
95
95
96
96
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Terror Hotbeds 2016 - Palestina
2015
Palestinian Islamic Army
(PISA)
(allied with DAESH: „IS Province Sinai“)
former
2013
Ansar al-Dawla al-Islamija
(Anhänger des Islamischen Staates)
former
2010 Ansar Beit al-Makdis
(Partisanen von Jerusalem)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Terror Hotbeds 2016 - ‘AFPAK’
Masterplan on
Pakistan:
(End of 2014 - to date)
Establishment of a
‚Strategic Planning
Wing‘:
Infiltration,
Spy Network, Recruitment,
Attacks,
Nuclear weapons?
(NBC News, Nov 20, 2014)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
Terror Hotbeds 2016 - ‘AFPAK’
Pakistan: save havens to Taliban & Al Qaeda
Sirajuddin Haqqani
Leader of the Haqqani network, a sub-set of the
Talibanorganisation, member of „Quetta Shura“;
Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour
Leader of Taliban (Nov 2013), held openly meetings
in Quetta, started new offensives into Afghanistan
(Kunduz, Helmand). Seriously wounded in December
2015 in a heated scuffle with a former Taliban leader.
Ayman al-Zawahiri
Leader of al Qaeda (Jun 2011), establishes training
camps in S-Afghanistan, tries to keep the balance
between AQC, its affiliates, and DAESH
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
Terror Hotbeds 2016 - ‘AFPAK’
Fractured Pakistan‘s Taliban:
Attacks on schools and universities
Mullah Fazlullah
Leader of PAK Taliban
„Tehereek-e-Taliban“
(TTP) (Nov 2013), Swat
faction, nickname „Mullah
Radio“, very close to AFG
Taliban & vowed support
to DAESH 2014
He ordered the killing of
‚Malala‘ Yousafzai
2015: 3,545 civilians died and 7,457 were injured 4 % increase over 2014 (UN Report, Feb. 14, 2016)
Killed on Jan 25, 2016 ?
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
Terror Hotbeds 2016 - Somalia/Kenya
Mogadishu, Al Shabaab claims it is behind plane blast, Feb 2, 2016
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
Terror Hotbeds 2016 -Somalia/Kenya
Gulf News, Feb 6, 2016: AU troops retake key port of Merka from al-Shabaab
86
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Terror Hotbeds 2016 - Nigeria
Von der Leyen hält Libyen-Einsatz für möglich
Deutschland müsse einen Beitrag dazu leisten, das Land zu stabilisieren, sagte
die Verteidigungsministerin. Sie warnte vor einem Zusammenschluss von
IS und Boko Haram.
18. Januar 2016 06:52 Uhr
Abubakar-Shekau,
Head of Boko Haram,
„who died more often than an
iPhone battery“
has sworn allegiance to
DAESH in March 2015 !
(BBC News Oct 3, 2015)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
Terror Hotbeds 2016 - Nigeria
Tunisia:
Jun 26, 2015, Sousse,
Beach Shooting,
39 dead (32 UK, G, B);
&
Nov 24, 2015, Tunis,
Attack on Presidential Gards
DAESH
D
Ansar
A
al-Sharia
ASL
S
GSPC
Only 1% of
promises spent
($ 166 million)
2,4 million need
humanitarian aid
(HRP)
AQIM
AQ
QIM
M
Ansar
al-Sharia
AST
In Jan 2015, an estimated
2,000 were massacred in Baga
(who cried: „Je suis Baga“?)
„IS West African
Province“
Dalori refugee camp
More than two million
Nigerians have fled their
homes seeking refuge
from Boko Haram
(BBC News Jan 7, 2016)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
The Growing Monster
KWWSZZZGDLO\PDLOFRXNQHZVDUWLFOH7KHWHUULI\LQJULVH,6,60DSVKRZVWHUURUJURXSVWHQWDFOHVUHDFK$OJHULD$IJKDQLVWDQKWPO
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
83
The Growing Monster
To date, DAESH established „wylats“ (provinces) in eight countries
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
83
DAESH’s Global Ambitions for 2016
There are close to 40 DAESH affiliates
globally with millions of adherents and
believers around the world
2016 more chaotic than 2015 !
“Jews, soon you shall hear from us in
Palestine which will become your
grave”
(Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Audio message, Dec 28, 2015)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
90
What Works ?
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
Last Words of a Syrian Soldier in Palmyra
Ä2*RG
KRPHODQG
\RXUKHURHV
DUHOLYLQJ
LQJUDYHV
DQG
\RXUWKLHYHV
DUHLQFDVWOHV³
1<7)HE
86
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
What Works ?
Spend money, give assistance, support !
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
110
110
READ !
111
,
111
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Thank you for listening May God reward you best !
Uwe G. Kranz,
Mayor General (ret.) & Independent Security Consultant
Tel: +49-8591-939124 GSM: 0151-155-39022 - Fax: +49-8591-939234 E-mail: [email protected]
$WWKH7UHVKROGRID'DUN(UDRI,VODP
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant
, February 2016
94
What Works ?
63-Member US-Led Coalition ?
Military Coalition
United States, Australia, Bahrein,
Belgium, Canada, Denmark,
France, Germany, Italy, Jordan,
the Netherlands, Poland, Saudi
Arabia, Turkey, UK, & United Arab
Special Military
Coalition
United States, Australia, France,
Germany, Italy, the Netherlands,
and UK
Special Meeting in February 2016:
„A good moment to do more“
Emirates
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHV V RUij
EHQ|WLJW
Dec 28, 2015, Tanks in Ramadi
U.S. “expeditionary targeting force”,
incl. 200 Special Operation troops,
deployed in Iraq;
3,500 French service members on the
front lines.
86
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
What Works ?
33 (Sunni)-Member
Saudi-led Anti-Terror
Coalition (?)
6DXGL$UDELD
V&URZQ3ULQFH0RKDPPHGELQ6DOPDQ
(Announcement Dec 15, 2015,
Adoption in Brussels, Feb 2016)
(& Turkey ... defending „Ottomans Land“,
disrupting Turkmen „genocide“? (Grey Wolves)
v. A 4+1 Schia Front ?!
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
What Works ?
Political Decisions (?)
UN General Secretary‘s
Action Plan Dec 24, 2015
„atrocities“
EU-Parliament
Feb 4, 2016
„6ystematic mass murder of
religious minorities by ISIS“
European Council
„genocide“
International Syria
Support Group
(ISSG)
Jan 29, 2016
Peace Talks?
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
What Works ?
Russia, the new ally against DAESH ?
'$(6+WDNHVUHVSRQVLELOLW\IUERPEDWWDFNRQ5XVVLDQDLUSODQH.*/4XLOOLDP
)RXQGDWLRQ%%&1HZV2FW
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
87
What Works ?
„Russia killed more Syrian
civilians than Assad & ISI“
in January 2016
(FoxNews,
Feb 16, 2016)
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LP
HŒ
'HNRP SUHV V RUij
EHQ|WLJW
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
88
What Works ?
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
88
What Works ?
Russian air strikes hitting „ISIS oil refinery“ in Syria
Belfast Telegraph, Nov 19, 2015
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
What Works ?
New U.S. intelligence estimates put the totals of
DAESH fighters at somewhere
“between 19,000 and 25,000 in Iraq and Syria,
down from prior figures ranging
from 20,000 to possibly more than 30,000.” (?)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
85
What Works ?
Brett McGurk, Special Presidential
Envoy for the Global Coalition to
Counter ISIL, Dec 10, 2015:
ÄConfirmed: Death of #ISIL finance minister
Abu Saleh & 2 associates as part of coalition
campaign to destroy ISILµs financial
infrastructure³
,
121
121
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
What Works ?
9LGHRRI86DLUVWULNHRQ,VLVFDVKVWRUDJHLQ0RVXO<RXWXEH6FUHHQJUDE&-7)2SHUDWLRQ,QKHUHQW5HVROYH-DQXDU\
81
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
What Works ?
“So on account of the exceptional circumstances the Islamic State is facing, it has been
decided to reduce the salaries that are paid to all mujahideen by half, and it is not
allowed for anyone to be exempted from this decision, whatever his position.”.
,
123
123
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
What Works ?
„Isis halves salaries for fighters in Raqqa“
(The Independent, Mon 18, 2016, citing ISIS treasury -“Bayt Mal al-Muslimeen”-)
You'll soon be laughing on the other side of your face! [B
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
124
124
What Works ?
We‘ll Have to Dig Deep in Our Pockets
The United States alone spent $ 5.2 billion
in fighting ISIS between Aug. 8, 2014, and Oct.
31, according to the Pentagon’s latest estimate.
They report that the average daily cost is
$11 million
over 450 days of operations as part of the mission
named "Inherent Resolve."
(abc NEWS, Dec 2, 2015)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
What Works ?
Project „Cassandra“ (vs. Hezbollah)
Feb 2, 2016 - Press release of DEA, GER, F, I, and B:
Mohammad Noureddine arrested, mastermind of global
cocaine trafficking network of Hezbollah BAC
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
66
What Works ?
Twitter deletes 125K terrorist
accounts
=XU$Q]HLJHZLUGGHU4XLFN7LPHŒ
'HNRPSUHVVRUij
EHQ|WLJW
2015: 46,000 Twitter accounts used by DAESH supporters
(Brooking Institutions)
Attractive recruiting & planning tool
86
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
What Works ?
Cachés derrière le masque de Guy Fawkes, des hackers se réclamant du groupe
Anonymous ont menacé l‘Etat islamique de représailles
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
128
128
What Works ?
Liberation of Ramadi - Dec 28, 2015
10.000 Iraqi troops vs. 300 DAESH fighters, 600 air strikes
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
22
What Works ?
Re-capturing of
Lost Area – 25 % ?
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
91
Sugarcoating of Military Results?
„ISIS devastated !“(2010)
„Reports on Weakness of ISIS are
exaggerated“, warn 50 Analysts of
US Central Command (9/2015)
„14 % losses!“ (12/2015)
“40 % in IRQ and 20% in SYR” (01/2016)
“800 km2 & 72 towns retaken (02/2016)
& Aleppo power station”
Survival is Victory! (“BAQIYA”)
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
92
More, please! Much More !!
Jan 20, 2016: German-Turkish Break of a People Smuggler Ring: 15 arrested
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
What Works ?
Watch out!
Don‘t become involuntarily
DAESH‘s Rapporteur, a
‚soldier ant‘ in DAESH‘s
propaganda war!
Don‘t sing their song and send
their dreadful videos or photos
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
What works ?
Listen to Experts!
In Germany, the intelligence agencies warned in the
early fall of 2015 that, "We are importing Islamic
extremism, Arab anti-Semitism, national and
ethnic conflicts of other peoples, as well as a
different understanding of society and law."
Four major German security agencies made it clear that
"German security agencies... will not be in the position
to solve these imported security problems and thereby
the arising reactions from Germany's population."
Still, this dire warning, which was leaked to the German press, did not cause
Germany's Chancellor, Angela Merkel, to change her open-door policy.
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
86
What Works ?
Take over successful actions!
Words & Ideas,
Hearts & Minds
UK „Authentic Ex-DAESH-Fighter Programme“
(70% rate of success)
86
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
What Works ?
Spend money, give assistance, support !
,
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
136
136
READ !
137
,
137
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant February 2016
Thank you for listening May God reward you best !
Uwe G. Kranz,
Mayor General (ret.) & Independent Security Consultant
Tel: +49-8591-939124 GSM: 0151-155-39022 - Fax: +49-8591-939234 E-mail: [email protected]
$WWKH7UHVKROGRID'DUN(UDRI,VODP
© Uwe G. Kranz, Independent Security Consultant
, February 2016
94