MOUN
Y
K
IN
STITU
TE
エイモリー B. ロビンス
ロッキーマウンテン研究所
共同創設者・主任科学者
Amory B. Lovins
Cofounder and Chief Scientist
東京、2016年03⽉月09⽇日
JREF, Tōkyō, 9 March 2016
RBON
A
C
IN
TA
ROC
The Emerging
Electricity
Revolution
W
AR
M
O
RO
© 2016 Rocky Mountain Institute
Netherlands: community connection
Flexible demand
Integrative
design
Efficiency
Customer
preferences
$
Distributed
renewables
Utility revenues
New financial and
business models
Regulatory shifts
Storage (including EVs)
Integrative
design
Efficiency
$
Utility revenues
Australia national electricity market
Actual vs. forecast electricity demand
1.8
Annual electricity use (TWh)
2010
2011
240
real GDP (billion 2011 Australian Dollars)
260
1.6
GDP (by calendar year)
2012
220
1.4
2013
200
2015
Historical
2014
1.2
180
1
160
0.8
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Inspiration: M. Liebreich, keynote, Bloomberg New Energy Finance summit, April 2015. GDP data: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook database, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/
download.aspx Historical and forecast electricity use: Australian Energy Market Operator, National Electricity Forecasting Report 2010–2015, http://www.aemo.com.au/AEMO%20Home/Electricity/Planning/Forecasting
Heresy Happens
U.S. energy intensity
Index of U.S. Primary Energy
Per Dollar of Real GDP
1.25
Government and Industry Forecasts, 1975
1
0.75
Actual
0.5
Lovins, Foreign Affairs, Fall 1976
0.25
Reinventing Fire, 2011
0
1975
1990
2005
2020
2035
2050
3-4x Energy Productivity in Buildings, 2x in Industry
Same or better services
U.S. buildings: 3–4× energy productivity worth 4× its cost
(site energy intensities in kWh/m2-y; U.S. office median ~293)
~277➝173 (–38%) 284➝85 (–70%)
2010 retrofit
2013 retrofit
...➝108 (–63%)
2010–11 new
...➝≤50 (–83% to –85%)
2015 new
Yet all the technologies in the 2015 example existed well before 2005!
2
1451-m
2015 Rocky Mountain Institute office
100-year building at 2015 m elevation, 30 km WNW of Aspen, Colorado
All-passive, no boilers/furnaces/chillers, net exporter of solar electricity
Energy performance increased capital cost 10.8% with <4-year payback
Rocky Mountain Institute Innovation Center (50-person office, 90-person convening center)
www.rmi.org/innovationcenter
22830 Two Rivers Road, Basalt, Colorado 81621
Images by Tim Griffith, courtesy of ZGF Architects
2
910-m
Bavarian mixed-use building produces nearly 5× as much energy as it uses
“House of Energy”, Kaufbeuren, 2013, world’s first Passive House Premium building:
total use 21 kWh/m2y (including 8 for heating); 250 m2 PVs produce 103 kWh/m2y
Flexible demand
$
Utility revenues
Storage (including EVs)
Distributed
renewables
LED and PV
800
1938
50
Halogen lamp
Incandescent lamp
1959
1879
1900
1950
Years
1996
2000
200
100
0
2014
Fluorescent lamp
2010
100
300
2006
1965
400
2002
Sodium-vapor lamp
500
1998
150
600
1994
Luminous efficacy (lm/W)
200
700
1990
250
Real busbar price or fuel cost, 2011 US$/MWh
White LED
300
0
Coal-fired steam turbine, fuel cost only
Oil-fired condensing, fuel cost only
Natural gas CCGT, fuel cost only
Utility-scale solar PV, total cost
Onshore windpower, total cost
German PV residential feed-in tariff
(Seattle-like climate)
Sources: L: courtesy of Dr. Yukio Narukawa (Nichia Corp., Tokushima, Japan) from J. Physics. D: Appl. Phys. 43(2010) 354002, doi:10.1088/0022-3727/43/35/354002, updated by RMI with CREE lm/W data, 2015, www.cree.com/News-and-Events/Cree-News/Press-Releases/2014/March/300LPW-LED-barrier;.
R: RMI analysis, at average 2013 USEIA fossil-fueled generation efficiencies and each year’s real fuel costs (no O&M); utility-scale PV: LBNL, Utility-Scale Solar 2013 (Sep 2014), Fig. 18; onshore wind: USDOE, 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report (Aug 2014), “Windbelt” (Interior zone) windfarms’ average
PPA; German feed-in tariff (falls with cost to yield ~6%/y real return): Fraunhofer ISE, Cost Perspective, Grid and Market Integration of Renewable Energies, p 6 (Jan 2014); all sources net of subsidies; graph inspired by 2014 “Terrordome” slide, Michael Parker, Bernstein Alliance
Renewable Energy’s Costs Continue to Plummet
Wind and photovoltaics: U.S. generation-weighted-average Power Purchase Agreement prices, by year of signing
levelized 2014 US$/MWh
250
utility-scale solar PPAs
200
U.S. wholesale
power price
150
100
50
wind PPAs
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Global power generation capacity additions, 2012–30
Capacity additions (GW)
300
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
300
Forecast
200
200
Forecast
Other
Biomass and waste
Hydro
Solar
Wind
181
290
225
146
106
87
100
0
2012
2013
78
2015
100
64
2020
52
2025
93
100
39
2030
0
2012
2013
2015
2020
2025
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, redrawn from Michael Liebreich’s Summit Keynote, 7 April 2014
2030
Cheaper renewables and batteries change the game
In Westchester, NY, 60% of residential consumption in the next decade could come more cheaply from PV
Load control + PVs = grid optional
kW#
8"
Dryer
DHW
Other
EV-charging
Solar PV
!10.00!!
10"
8"
!8.00!!
AC
Dryer
DHW
Other
EV-charging
Solar PV
kW#
10"
AC
!12.00!!
12"
kW#
12"
6"
!6.00!!
6"
4"
4"
!4.00!!
2"
2"
!2.00!!
0"
0"
!"!!!!
Uncontrolled: ~50% of solar PV
production is sent to the grid,
but if the utility doesn’t pay for
that energy, how could
customers respond?
Source: RMI analysis “The Economics of Load Flexibility,” 2015
Unc!Load!
Smart!AC!
Smart!DHW!
Smart!Dryer!
Controlled: flexible load enables
customers to consume >80% of
solar PV production onsite.
0 GW-y
3
1
2
“Cathedral”
Photovoltaics
Years
01
01
8
9
0
71
2
4
6
5
3
10
15
21
28
36
45
0 GW-y
1
3
6
Variable Renewables Can Be Forecasted At Least as Accurately as Electricity Demand
French windpower output, December 2011: forecasted one day ahead vs. actual
5
4.5
4
3.5
GW
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Source: Bernard Chabot,
10 April 2013, Fig. 7,
www.renewablesinternational.n
et/wind-power-statistics-by-thehour/150/505/61845/,
data from French TSO RTE
!
!
12% Downtime
10% Downtime
変動する再⽣生可能エネルギーの計画的発電
テキサス電⼒力信頼度協議会（ERCOT）電⼒力プール、テキサス州における2050年夏の1週間、（RMI による時間ごとのシミュレーション）
60
当初負荷量
効率向上後の負荷
50
⾵風⼒力 (37 GW)
太陽 (25 GW)
地熱など
40
GW
バイオマス・バイオガス
冷暖房空調HVAC ice/EV貯蔵
30
貯蔵リカバリ
デマンドレスポンス
損失電⼒力(~5%)
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
⽇日
5
6
7
Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation
ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
60
50
Original load
Load after efficiency
GW
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
Day
5
6
7
Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation
ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
60
50
Original load
Load after efficiency
GW
40
Wind (37 GW)
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
Day
5
6
7
Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation
ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
60
50
Original load
Load after efficiency
GW
40
Wind (37 GW)
Solar (25 GW)
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
Day
5
6
7
Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation
ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
60
GW
50
40
Original load
Load after efficiency
30
Wind (37 GW)
Solar (25 GW)
Geothermal etc.
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
Day
5
6
7
Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation
ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
60
GW
50
40
Original load
Load after efficiency
30
Wind (37 GW)
Solar (25 GW)
Geothermal etc.
Biomass/biogas
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
Day
5
6
7
Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation
ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
60
50
Original load
Load after efficiency
GW
40
Wind (37 GW)
Solar (25 GW)
Geothermal etc.
Biomass/biogas
HVAC ice/EV storage
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
Day
5
6
7
Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation
ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
60
50
Original load
Load after efficiency
GW
40
Wind (37 GW)
Solar (25 GW)
Geothermal etc.
Biomass/biogas
HVAC ice/EV storage
Storage recovery
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
Day
5
6
7
Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation
ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
60
50
Original load
Load after efficiency
Wind (37 GW)
Solar (25 GW)
Geothermal etc.
Biomass/biogas
HVAC ice/EV storage
Storage recovery
Demand response
GW
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
Day
5
6
7
Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation
ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
60
50
Original load
Load after efficiency
Wind (37 GW)
Solar (25 GW)
Geothermal etc.
Biomass/biogas
HVAC ice/EV storage
Storage recovery
Demand response
Spilled power (~5%)
GW
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
Day
5
6
7
Choreographing
Variable %
50
Renewable Generation
Scotland
%
59
Europe, 2014 renewable %
of total electricity consumed
Denmark (33% wind; 2013 windpower
peak 136%—55% for all December)
%
27
Germany (2013 peak 70%)
%
64
Portugal (peak 100% in 2011; 70% for the whole first
half of 2013, incl, 26% wind & 34% hydro; 17% in 2005)
%
46
Spain (including 21% wind, 14% hydro, 5% solar)
Grid flexibility supply curve
(all values shown are conceptual and illustrative)
distributed
electricity
storage
cost
thermal
storage
dispatchable
diversify renewables and
renewables by cogeneration
type and
location
efficient use
demand
response
accurate
forecasting
of wind + PV
fossilfueled
backup
bulk
storage
ability to accommodate
reliably a large share of
variable renewable power
Denmark’s transition to distributed electricity, 1980–2012
1980
Source: Risø
Central thermal
Other generation
Wind turbines
2012
$
Utility revenues
Regulatory shifts
New financial and
business models
The German example
Share price ($/share), European Utilities Share Price
150
130
European
utilities lost $500
billion market
cap in 6 years
110
90
70
50
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
The German example
Value > Price > Cost
Easter Parades on Fifth Avenue, New York, 13 years apart
1900: where’s the first car?
1913: where’s the last horse?
?
Images: L, National Archive, www.archives.gov/research/american-cities/images/american-cities-101.jpg; R, shorpy.com/node/204.
Inspiration: Tona Seba’s keynote lecture at AltCar, Santa Monica CA, 28 Oct 2014, http://tonyseba.com/keynote-at-altcar-expo-100-electric-transportation-100-solar-by-2030/
A new and old utility
Indexed stock market price
(13 December 2012 = 1)
8
7
SolarCity
6
$6b market cap
5
4
3
2
1
0
12 December 2012
(SolarCity’s IPO)
Exelon
$34b market cap
May 2015
A new and old automaker
Indexed stock market price
(30 June 2010 = 1)
14
50 thousand
cars per year
12
10
$30b market
cap
Tesla
8
6
4
2
0
29 June 2010
(Tesla’s IPO)
General Motors
8 million cars per year
$57b market
cap
May 2015
WHERE WOULD YOU INVEST YOUR MONEY?
OR
33
WHERE WOULD YOU INVEST YOUR MONEY?
OR
34
From the Age of Carbon to the Age of Silicon
Japan can lead this global energy hiyaku (飛躍) ⽇日本は、世界のエネルギーの飛躍を牽引することができる
Japanese frogs jump too!
⽇日本の蛙も飛躍する！ The old pond
frog jumps in
plop
—Bashō, 1686