平成22年度気候変動に伴う農地に関する適応策検討調査委託事業

平成２２年度
気候変動に伴う農地に関する
適応策検討調査委託事業
報告書
目
次
1. 事業概要
1.1
事業の目的 ···················································· 1-1
1.2
事業の概要 ···················································· 1-1
1.3
事業の流れ ···················································· 1-2
1.4
実施方針 ······················································ 1-4
2. 影響評価手法モデルの適応性検討 ·································· 2-1
2.1
検討の目的 ···················································· 2-1
2.2
検討のポイント ················································ 2-2
2.3
検討会における提示内容 ········································ 2-3
2.4
将来の降雨強度の予測（予測間断期間の補間） ····················· 2-4
2.5
1/10 年確率以外の基準雨量への適応検討 ························· 2-17
2.5.1 各種確率密度関数での評価 ································ 2-17
2.5.2 岩井法による 20km メッシュの基準降雨評価 ·················· 2-20
2.5.3 岩井法による 1km メッシュの基準降雨評価 ··················· 2-52
2.5.4 モデル地区における確率雨量の算定結果 ····················· 2-76
3. モデル地区における土地改良施設への適応策の検討 ··················· 3-1
3.1
モデル地区の選定 ·············································· 3-1
3.2
排水不良（湿潤化）及び土壌侵食（流出）への適応策の検討 ········· 3-7
3.2.1 現況施設における機能の「余裕高」の確認 ···················· 3-7
3.2.2 供用可能年数の算定及び計画上の耐用年数との比較 ··········· 3-23
3.2.3 最適施設更新計画の検討 ·································· 3-32
3.2.4 経済効果分析を行う上での課題整理及び試算 ················· 3-40
3.3
乾燥化による畑地かんがい事業に与える影響の把握 ················ 3-63
4. 適応策（案）の検討 ·············································· 4-1
5. 有識者等から意見聴取 ············································ 5-1

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