᪥ᮏ㖟⾜࣮࣡࢟ࣥࢢ࣮࣌ࣃ࣮ࢩ࣮ࣜࢬ ࢃࡀᅜ࠾ࡅࡿ㈤㔠ኚືࡢ⫼ᬒ㸸 ᖺຌ㈤㔠ປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋ࡢᙳ㡪 Ọ᪩ኸ* [email protected] すᒸៅ୍* [email protected] No.14-J-9 2014 ᖺ 12 ᭶ ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ ࠛ103-8660 ᪥ᮏ㒑౽㸦ᰴ㸧᪥ᮏᶫ㒑౽ᒁ⚾᭩⟽ 30 ྕ * ㄪᰝ⤫ィᒁ ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜࣮࣡࢟ࣥࢢ࣮࣌ࣃ࣮ࢩ࣮ࣜࢬࡣࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ဨ࠾ࡼࡧእ㒊◊✲⪅ࡢ◊✲ᡂᯝࢆ ࡾࡲࡵࡓࡶࡢ࡛ࠊෆእࡢ◊✲ᶵ㛵ࠊ◊✲⪅➼ࡢ᭷㆑⪅ࡽᖜᗈࡃࢥ࣓ࣥࢺࢆ㡬ᡝࡍࡿ ࡇࢆពᅗࡋ࡚࠸ࡲࡍࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊㄽᩥࡢ୰࡛♧ࡉࢀࡓෆᐜࡸពぢࡣࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ࡢබᘧぢ ゎࢆ♧ࡍࡶࡢ࡛ࡣ࠶ࡾࡲࡏࢇࠋ ࡞࠾ࠊ࣮࣡࢟ࣥࢢ࣮࣌ࣃ࣮ࢩ࣮ࣜࢬᑐࡍࡿࡈពぢ࣭ࡈ㉁ၥࡸࠊᥖ㍕ࣇࣝ㛵ࡍࡿ ࠾ၥ࠸ྜࢃࡏࡣࠊᇳ➹⪅ࡲ࡛࠾ᐤࡏୗࡉ࠸ࠋ ၟ⏝┠ⓗ࡛㌿㍕࣭」〇ࢆ⾜࠺ሙྜࡣࠊணࡵ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ሗࢧ࣮ࣅࢫᒁ SRVWSUG#ERMRUMSࡲ࡛ࡈ┦ㄯୗࡉ࠸ࠋ㌿㍕࣭」〇ࢆ⾜࠺ሙྜࡣࠊฟᡤࢆ᫂グࡋ࡚ ୗࡉ࠸ࠋ ࢃࡀᅜ࠾ࡅࡿ㈤㔠ኚືࡢ⫼ᬒ㸸 ᖺຌ㈤㔠ປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋ࡢᙳ㡪* Ọ᪩ኸ† すᒸៅ୍‡ 2014 ᖺ 12 ᭶ ࠙せ ᪨ࠚ ᮏ✏࡛ࡣࠊࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࢆィ ࡋࠊࡑࡢ 㞳ࡀ㈤㔠ࡢఙࡧཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆ᳨ドࡋࡓࠋ௬ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝ࡛ ᙇࡉࢀࡿࡼ࠺ࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡼࡾ ࡶࡁࡃࠊ㧗㱋⪅㈤㔠ࡀ㧗タᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ࡞ࡽࡤࠊປാ⪅ࡢ 㧗㱋ࡣࠊᴗࡢ㈤㔠㈇ᢸࢆ㔜ࡃࡋࠊ㈤㔠ୖ᪼ࢆᢚไࡍࡿ᪉ྥാࡁ ᚓࡿࠋ1990 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࡢࢃࡀᅜࢆᑐ㇟ࠊᴗປാ⪅ࡢಶ⚊ࢆ ࣐ࢵࢳࣥࢢࡋࡓࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫࢆసᡂࡋ࡚ᐇドศᯒࢆ⾜ࡗࡓࡇࢁࠊ௨ ୗࡢ⤖ㄽࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓࠋ➨୍ࠊᴗࢆ୰ᚰ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡣປ ാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡼࡾࡶࡁ࠸ࠋ➨ࠊ㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࡢྜࡀ㧗 ࠸ᴗ࡞ࠊ㈤㔠㈇ᢸࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶẚ࡚┦ᑐⓗࡁ࠸ᴗ ࠊ㈤㔠ୖ᪼⋡ࡀᢚไࡉࢀࡿഴྥ࠶ࡿࠋ ㏆ᖺࡢࢃࡀᅜ㈤㔠ఙࡧᝎࡳࡢ⫼ᬒࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊᵝࠎ࡞せᅉࡀᣦࡉ ࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡑࡢ୰࡛ࡶࠊᮏ✏ࡢ⤖ᯝࡣࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋ࡀࠊᴗࢆ ୰ᚰࡍࡿᴗࡢ㈤㔠㈇ᢸࢆປാ⏕⏘ᛶẚ࡚㐣࡞ࡶࡢࡋࠊࡇ ࢀࡀ 1990 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࡢ㈤㔠ࡢᢚไࡘ࡞ࡀࡗࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࡇ ࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ * ᮏ✏ࡢసᡂ࠶ࡓࡗ࡚ࡣࠊ⤒῭⏘ᴗ┬ࠕᴗάືᇶᮏㄪᰝࠖࠊཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀 ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖࠊ⥲ົ┬ࠕᴗᡤ࣭ᴗ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ࠾ࡼࡧࠕ⤒῭ࢭࣥࢧࢫࠖࡢㄪᰝ⚊ ሗࡢᥦ౪ࢆཷࡅࡓࠋ㟷ᮌᾈᩍᤵ㸦ᮾிᏛ㸧࠾ࡼࡧ๓⏣ᰤẶࠊ⫧ᚋ㞞༤Ặࠊட⏣ ไసẶࠊ୍℩ၿᏕẶࡣࡌࡵ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ࡢࢫࢱࢵࣇࡽ㈗㔜࡞ࢥ࣓ࣥࢺࢆ㡬ᡝࡋࡓࠋグࡋ࡚ ឤㅰࡢពࢆ⾲ࡋࡓ࠸ࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊ࠶ࡾᚓࡁㄗࡾࡣ࡚➹⪅ࡽᖐࡍࡿࠋ࡞࠾ࠊᮏ✏୰ࡢ ពぢ࣭ゎ㔘࠶ࡓࡿ㒊ศࡣ➹⪅ࡽಶேᒓࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡾࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣㄪᰝ⤫ィ ᒁࡢබᘧぢゎࢆ♧ࡍࡶࡢ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ࠋ † ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ㄪᰝ⤫ィᒁ㸦saori.naganuma@ boj.or.jp㸧 ‡ ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ㄪᰝ⤫ィᒁ㸦[email protected]㸧 1 㸯㸬 ࡣࡌࡵ ᮏ✏࡛ࡣࠊࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࢆィ ࡋࠊࡑࡢ㞳ࡀ㈤ 㔠ࡢఙࡧཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆ᳨ドࡍࡿࠋࡇࢀࢆ㏻ࡌ࡚ࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋ࡀࠊᴗࡢ ㈤㔠㈇ᢸࢆປാ⏕⏘ᛶẚ࡚㐣࡞ࡶࡢࡋࠊ㈤㔠ࡢఙࡧࢆᢚไࡍࡿせᅉ ࡞ࡗࡓ࠺ࢆ⪃ᐹࡍࡿࠋ 1990 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࠊࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠ࡣఙࡧᝎࢇࡔࠋࡾࢃࡅࠊ2000 ᖺ௦༙ࡤ ࡣࠊᬒẼࡀᣑࡋࠊປാ㟂⤥ࡀࡦࡗ㏕ࡋࡓࡶᣊࢃࡽࡎࠊ┠❧ࡗࡓ㈤㔠ࡢୖ᪼ ࡣࡳࡽࢀ࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡇࡢ⫼ᬒࡋ࡚ࠊࢢ࣮ࣟࣂࣝࡀ㐍ᒎࡋࡓࡇࡸᴗ࢞ࣂ ࢼࣥࢫࡀኚࡋࡓࡇࡀᣦࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࢢ࣮ࣟࣂࣝࡢ㐍ᒎࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊᕝ ᮏ࣭⠛ᓮ㸦2009㸧ࡸᒣ⏣㸦2009㸧ࡀࠊ㈤㔠ࡀ┦ᑐⓗప࠸᪂⯆ᅜࡢᾏእ⏕ ⏘⛣⟶ࡸྛᅜᴗ㛫ࡢ➇தࡢ㧗ࡲࡾࡀࠊ㈤㔠ࡢఙࡧࢆᢚไࡋࡓࡇࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ ࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊⲈᮌ㸦2007㸧 ࠊᕝᮏ࣭⠛ᓮ㸦2009㸧ࠊᒣ⏣㸦2009㸧ࠊ㔝⏣࣭㜿㒊㸦2010㸧 ࡣࠊᰴࡼࡿ࢞ࣂࢼࣥࢫࡢᙉࡲࡾࡀࠊ┈ᛶࡸ㓄ᙜࢆ㔜どࡍࡿഴྥࢆᙉࡵࠊ ே௳㈝ࡢᢚไࡘ࡞ࡀࡗࡓᙇࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ㈤㔠ࡢఙࡧࡀᢚไࡉࢀࡿഴྥࡣࠊ ࢃࡀᅜ㝈ࡽࡎᾏእ࡛ࡶࡳࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡓ࠼ࡤࠊBassanini and Manfredi (2012) ࡣࠊከࡃࡢඛ㐍ᅜ࡛ປാศ㓄⋡ࡀ㊅ໃⓗపୗࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡋ࡚ࠊ㈨ᮏ㈈౯᱁ࡢ పୗࡀປാࡽ㈨ᮏࡢ௦᭰ࢆಁࡋࡓࡇࡸࠊඛࡢᣦྠᵝࠊࢢ࣮ࣟࣂࣝ ࡢ㐍ᒎࡸ㈨ᮏᕷሙࡽࡢᅽຊࡢ㧗ࡲࡾ࡞ࢆࡑࡢ⫼ᬒᣲࡆ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ୍᪉ࠊࢃࡀᅜ࡛ࡣࠊᖺຌ㈤㔠ไᗘࡢࡶ࡛ປാ⪅ࡀ㧗㱋ࡋࡓࡇࡀࠊ㈤㔠 ࡢఙࡧࢆᢚไࡍࡿ୍ᅉ࡞ࡗࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡶ࠶ࡿࠋ1990 ᖺ௦௨㝆ࠊከࡃࡢᴗ࡛ࠊ ே௳㈝ᢚไࡢほⅬࡽ᪂༞᥇⏝ࢆᢚไࡋࡓࡇࡀࠊᴗෆ࠾ࡅࡿປാ⪅ࡢ㧗 㱋ࢆᣍ࠸ࡓࠋࡉࡽࠊ2000 ᖺ௦༙ࡤࡅ࡚ࡣࠊປാேཱྀࡀከ࠸ᅋሢୡ௦㸦1947 㹼1949 ᖺ⏕ࡲࢀ㸧ࡀᐃᖺ㏆࡙ࡃࡘࢀ࡚ࠊປാ⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࡣ୍ẁ㧗㱋 ࡋࡓࠋࢃࡀᅜ࡛ࡣࠊᖺຌ㈤㔠ไᗘࡢࡶ࡛ࠊ㧗㱋࡞ࡿ㈤㔠ࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿഴ ྥࡀ࠶ࡿࡓࡵࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋ࡣᴗࡢே௳㈝ࢆቑຍࡉࡏࡿ᪉ྥാࡃࠋඛ⾜ ◊✲࡛ࡣࠊ㭯㸦2005㸧 ࠊ୕㇂㸦2005㸧ࠊ㯮⏣࣭ᒣᮏ㸦2006㸧ࠊ㉥⩚࣭୰ᮧ㸦2008㸧ࠊ ℈⛅㸦2011㸧ࡀࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋ࡀࠊ㈤㔠ࡢᘬࡁୗࡆࡸ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢࣇࣛࢵ ࢺࡘ࡞ࡀࡗࡓྍ⬟ᛶࢆᣦࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ࡇࡇ࡛ࠊ㔜せ࡞࣏ࣥࢺࡣࠊ㈤㔠ࡢ㧗ࡉࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㧗ࡉぢྜࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ ࠺࠸࠺Ⅼ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ௬ࠊᖺ㱋ࢆ㔜ࡡࡿປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡀ㧗ࡲࡾࠊ㈤㔠 ࡀࡇࢀぢྜࡗ࡚タᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡢ࡛࠶ࢀࡤࠊປാ⪅ࡀ㧗㱋ࡋࡼ࠺ࡶࠊ ᴗࡢே௳㈝ࡣ⏕⏘άື࡛ᚓࡓᡂᯝࡘࡾ࠶࠺ࡓࡵࠊே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡀ㐣࡞ࡿࡇ ࡣ࡞࠸ࠋ୍᪉ࠊ㧗㱋࡞ࡿ㈤㔠ࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡼࡾࡶ㧗࡞ࡿࡢ࡛࠶ࢀ ࡤࠊປാ⪅ࡀ㧗㱋ࡍࡿࠊᴗࡀᨭᡶ࠺㈤㔠ࡣ⏕⏘άື࡛ᚓࡓᡂᯝࢆୖᅇࡾࠊ 2 ே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡀ㐣࡞ࡾᚓࡿࠋᕝཱྀ㸦2007㸧ࡣࠊࢃࡀᅜ〇㐀ᴗ࠾࠸࡚㈤㔠 ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡼࡾࡶࡁ࠸ࡇࢆᐃ㔞ⓗ♧ࡋ࡚࠾ ࡾࠊ㧗㱋࡞ࡿࠊ㈤㔠ࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡼࡾࡶ㧗࡞ࡿᙇࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ᮏ✏ࡢࡓࡿ㛵ᚰࡣࠊປാ⪅ࡀ㧗㱋ࡋࡓᴗࠊ㈤㔠㈇ᢸࡀປാ⏕⏘ ᛶẚ࡚㐣࡞ࡾࠊࡇࡢࡇࡽᴗࡣ㈤㔠ୖ᪼ࢆᢚไࡋࡓࡢ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ ࠸࠺Ⅼ࠶ࡿࠋୖグࡢ࠾ࡾࠊࡇࢀ㢮ࡍࡿศᯒࡣከ࠸ࡀࠊປാ⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓ ᡂࡢ㛵㐃࡛ࠊ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㞳ࡀ㈤㔠ኚ⋡ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆ┤᥋ィ ࡋࡓ◊✲ࡣぢᙜࡓࡽ࡞࠸ࠋࡑࡇ࡛ࠊᮏ✏࡛ࡣࠊᴗປാ⪅ࢆࡦࡶ࡙ࡅࡓಶ⚊ ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚ࠊᖺ㱋㝵ᒙࡈࡢ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㞳ࢆィ ࡋࠊࡇࢀࡀ㈤ 㔠ኚ⋡ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆᐃ㔞ⓗ᳨ドࡍࡿࠋ ᮏ✏ࡢᵓᡂࡣḟࡢ࠾ࡾ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ2 ⠇࡛ࡣࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㛵ಀ ࡘ࠸࡚⌮ㄽⓗ࡞ᩚ⌮ࢆ⾜࠺ࡶࠊࢃࡀᅜ㈤㔠ࡢືྥࡸ㐣ཤࡢ⡿ᅜࡢ ࡘ࠸࡚㏙ࡿࠋ3 ⠇࡛ࡣࠊᖺ㱋㝵ᒙࡈࡢ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㞳ࢆィ ࡋࠊࡇ ࢀࡀ㈤㔠ኚ⋡ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆᐇドࡍࡿࠋ᭱ᚋ 4 ⠇࡛⤖ㄽࢆ㏙ࡿࠋ 㸰㸬㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㛵ಀ㛵ࡍࡿ⌮ㄽࡑࡢືྥ ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢᙧ≧ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㛵ಀࢆㄝ᫂ࡍࡿ⌮ㄽࡋ࡚ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠 ௬ㄝࡀࡼࡃ▱ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡢ௬ㄝࡣࠊᖺຌ㈤㔠ࠊ㛗ᮇ㞠⏝ࠊᐃᖺ㏥⫋࠸ࡗ ࡓࢃࡀᅜ㞠⏝័⾜ࡢ≉ᚩࢆྜ⌮ⓗㄝ࡛᫂ࡁࡿࠊᐇド㠃࡛ࡶࡑࡢጇᙜᛶࡀ ᨭᣢࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡇ࡛ࡣࠊࡑࡢᴫせࢆㄝ᫂ࡋࡓ࠶ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡀ㛗ᮇ ⓗᏑ⥆ࡍࡿせ௳ࡸࡑࡢせ௳ࡀᔂࢀࡓሙྜࠊ㈤㔠ࡸ㞠⏝ࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᙳ㡪ࡀ⏕ ࡌᚓࡿࢆ⪃ᐹࡍࡿࠋࡑࡢ࠺࠼࡛ࠊࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢືྥࡸ㐣ཤࡢ⡿ᅜࡢ ࢆᣲࡆࡿࠋ 㸰㸫㸯㸬ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝ 㸦㸯㸧ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡢᴫせ ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡣࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࢆປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡼࡾࡶഴࡁࡀᛴ࡞ྑୖࡀ ࡾタᐃࡍࡿࡇࡼࡗ࡚ࠊປാ⪅ࡢࡸࡿẼࢆᘬࡁฟࡍࡇࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡍࡿㄝ ࡛ࠊLazear (1979) ࡼࡗ࡚ᥦၐࡉࢀࡓ1ࠋලయⓗࡣࠊᴗࡣࠊⱝᖺᮇປാ⏕ ⏘ᛶࢆୗᅇࡿ㈤㔠ࢆࠊ㧗㱋ᮇປാ⏕⏘ᛶࢆୖᅇࡿ㈤㔠ࢆᨭᡶ࠸ࠊᐃᖺࡣ 1 ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡣࠊ ࠕࣥࢭࣥࢸࣈዎ⣙௬ㄝࠖ ࠊ ࠕᬯ㯲ⓗዎ⣙௬ㄝࠖࡸࠕಖド㔠✚❧௬ㄝࠖ ࡶࡤࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 3 ධ♫௨㝆ࡢ㈤㔠⥲㢠ࢆ⏕⏘⥲㢠୍⮴ࡉࡏࡿ࠸࠺ᬯ㯲ࡢዎ⣙ࢆປാ⪅⤖ࡪ 㸦ᅗ⾲ 1㸧 ࠋࡇࡢዎ⣙ࡣࠊປാ⪅ࡀⱝᖺᮇᴗᑐࡍࡿമᶒࢆಖ᭷ࡋࠊ㧗㱋ᮇ ࡑࡢമᶒࢆᅇࡍࡿࡇྠ⩏࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡇࡢዎ⣙ࡢࡶ࡛ࠊ௬ࠊປാ⪅ࡀ ᛰᴗ࡞ࡼࡗ࡚ゎ㞠ࡉࢀࡓሙྜࠊࡇࢀࡲ࡛ཷࡅྲྀࡗ࡚ࡁࡓ㈤㔠⥲㢠ࡀ⏕⏘ ⥲㢠‶ࡓ࡞࠸㸦മᶒࢆᅇࡋࡁࢀ࡞࠸㸧ࡇ࡞ࡿࡓࡵࠊປാ⪅ࡣࠊゎ㞠 ࡉࢀ࡞࠸ࡼ࠺ᠱാࡃࣥࢭࣥࢸࣈࡀ⏕ࡌࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊᴗࡀປാ⪅ ࡢົែᗘࢆ༑ศᢕᥱ࡛ࡁ࡞ࡗࡓࡋ࡚ࡶࠊປാ⪅ࡢ⏕⏘ᛶࢆ㧗ࡵࡿࡇ ࡀྍ⬟࡞ࡿࠋ ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡣࠊྑୖࡀࡾࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡔࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊ㛗ᮇⓗ࡞㞠⏝㛵ಀ ࡸᐃᖺ㏥⫋ไᗘࡀᏑᅾࡍࡿ⌮⏤ࡘ࠸࡚ࡶྜ⌮ⓗ࡞ㄝ᫂ࡀྍ⬟࡛࠶ࡾࠊࢃࡀᅜ ࡢ㞠⏝័⾜ࡢ≉ᚩࢆẚ㍑ⓗ࠺ࡲࡃᤊ࠼࡚࠸ࡿ࠸࠼ࡿ2ࠋᐇド◊✲࠾࠸࡚ࡶࠊ Okazaki (1993) ࡀࠊᴗ〇㐀ᴗ࡛ࡣࠊ40 ṓ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡀ ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡼࡾࡶࡁࡃ࡞ࡿࡇࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ㏆ᖺࡢ◊✲࠾ ࠸࡚ࡶࠊᕝཱྀ㸦2007㸧ࡣࠊࢃࡀᅜ〇㐀ᴗࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡣࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶ ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡼࡾࡶࡁ࠸ࡋ࡚ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡀᡂ❧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇࢆ♧၀ ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊKodama and Odaki (2012) ࡛ࡣࠊᐃᖺ㏆࠸㧗༞⏨ᛶࡢ㈤㔠ࡣ ⏕⏘ᛶࢆ 2 ⛬ᗘୖᅇࡿࡢ⤖ㄽࢆᚓ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 㸦㸰㸧ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡢᡂ❧せ௳㈤㔠ࡢᙳ㡪 ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝ࡛ࡣࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࢆປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡼࡾࡶ ࡁࡃタᐃࡍࡿࡇ࡛ࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗࠸⏕⏘ᛶࢆᘬࡁฟࡍࡇࢆ㦵Ꮚࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ㞳ࡀ⏕ࡌࡿࡓࡵࠊࡇࡢㄝࡶ࡙ࡃ㈤㔠ไᗘࡀ㛗ᮇⓗ Ꮡ⥆ࡍࡿࡓࡵࡣࠊࡓ࠼ࡤࠊḟࡢࡼ࠺࡞せ௳ࡀᚲせ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ ձປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ⥔ᣢ ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡢࡶ࡛ࡣࠊⱝᖺᮇࡣປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡀ㈤㔠ࢆୖᅇࡾࠊࡑࡢ ᚋࡶධ♫Ⅼ࡛ᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡓປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡀ㏥⫋Ⅼࡲ୍࡛ᐃ௨ୖಖࡓࢀ ࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࠋ௬ࠊ࠶ࡿⅬ࡛ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡀணᮇࡏࡊࡿࡓࡕ࡛పୗࡋࡓ ሙྜࠊᴗࡗ࡚ࡣᙜึᐃࡋ࡚࠸ࡓ㈤㔠ࡀ㐣࡞ࡿࡓࡵࠊዎ⣙ࢆ⥅⥆ ࡍࡿࡇࡀࡴࡎࡋࡃ࡞ࡿࠋ 2 ྑୖࡀࡾࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࢆㄝ᫂ࡍࡿ᭷ຊ࡞௬ㄝࡋ࡚ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡢேⓗ㈨ᮏ௬ ㄝ㸦Becker (1964)㸧ࡀᣲࡆࡽࢀࡿࠋேⓗ㈨ᮏ௬ㄝ࡛ࡣࠊປാ⪅ࡣࠊⱝᖺᴗෆカ⦎ࢆ㏻ ࡌ࡚ᴗ≉Ṧⓗ࡞ᢏ⬟ࢆ㌟ࡘࡅࠊ୰㧗ᖺࡅ࡚㧗࠸⏕⏘ᛶ㈤㔠ࢆᚓࡿࡓࡵࠊ㈤㔠࢝ ࣮ࣈࡣྑୖࡀࡾ࡞ࡿࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ㄪᰝ⤫ィᒁ㸦2010㸧ࡀᣦࡍࡿ࠾ࡾࠊேⓗ㈨ ᮏ௬ㄝࡢࡶ࡛ࡣࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢഴࡁࡢ᪉ࡀࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡼࡾࡶᛴ࡞ࡾࠊࡇࡢⅬ ࡣࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝ␗࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 4 ղປാ⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࡢࣂࣛࣥࢫ☜ಖ ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡢࡶ࡛ࠊᖺຌ㈤㔠ไᗘࡢ㐠⏝ࢆࠊࠕ✚❧᪉ᘧࠖ㸦ᴗࡀ࠶ ࡿປാ⪅ࡢ㧗ᖺᮇᨭᡶ࠺ࡁ㈤㔠ࢆࠊࡑࡢປാ⪅ࡀⱝᖺᮇࡢ࠺ࡕ✚ࡳ❧ ࡚࡚࠾ࡃࡇ㸧࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊࠕ㈿ㄢ᪉ᘧࠖ㸦㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࡢ✌ࡂࢆୖᅇࡿ㈤㔠ࢆࠊ ⱝᖺປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ࢆୖᅇࡿ✌ࡂ࡛ᨭᡶ࠺ࡇ㸧࡛⾜ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿሙྜࠊປാ⪅ࡢ ᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࢆ㐺ษࣂࣛࣥࢫࡉࡏࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࠋ௬ࠊ㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࡢẚ⋡ࡀ㐣 ᗘ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡗࡓሙྜࠊᴗయࡢ⏕⏘㢠ᑐࡋ࡚㈤㔠⥲㢠ࡀ㐣࡞ࡿࡓࡵࠊ ዎ⣙ࢆ⥅⥆ࡍࡿࡇࡀࡴࡎࡋࡃ࡞ࡿࠋ ࡍ࡞ࢃࡕࠊ㛗ᮇࢃࡓࡗ࡚Ᏻᐃⓗ࡞ᡂ㛗ࡀぢ㎸ࡵࠊⱝᖺປാ⪅ࢆᖖ㞠⏝ࡍࡿ ࡇࡀ࡛ࡁࡿᴗ࡛ࡣࠊ㛗ᮇ㞠⏝ࢆ๓ᥦࡋࡓྑୖࡀࡾࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࢆ⥔ᣢࡍ ࡿࡇࡀྍ⬟࡞ࡿࠋ୍᪉ࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡀணࡼࡾࡶపୗࡋࡓሙྜࡸປാ⪅ࡢ ᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࡀ㐣ᗘ㧗㱋ࡍࡿሙྜࠊᴗࡢ⏕⏘⥲㢠ẚ࡚㈤㔠⥲㢠ࡀ㐣 ࡞ࡿ㸦୍ே࠶ࡓࡾࡢ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ㞳ࡀ⏕ࡌࡿ㸧ࠋࡇࡢࡁࠊᴗࡣࠊ㈤ 㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㞳ࢆゎᾘࡍࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࡓࡵࠊձ㈤㔠ࡀ㧗࡞㧗ᖺປാ⪅ ࢆゎ㞠ࡍࡿࠊղᐃᖺ㏥⫋ᖺ㱋ࢆᘬࡁୗࡆࡿࠊճ㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ࢆᘬࡁୗࡆࡘ ࡘ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࢆࣇࣛࢵࢺࡉࡏࡿ࡞ࠊᬯ㯲ࡢዎ⣙ࢆษࡿࣥࢭࣥࢸࣈࡀ ⏕ࡌࡿ3ࠋ 㸰㸫㸰㸬㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢືྥ 㸦㸯㸧ࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ㈤㔠ୖ᪼⋡ ௨ୗ࡛ࡣࠊࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ㈤㔠ୖ᪼⋡ࡢືࡁࡘ࠸࡚ࠊୖグࡢ௬ㄝࢆ ㋃ࡲ࠼࡞ࡀࡽᐇ㛵ಀࡢᩚ⌮ࢆ⾜࠺ࠋࢃࡀᅜ࡛ࡣࠊ1970 ᖺ௨㝆ࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢ ࣇࣛࢵࢺࡀ⥆࠸࡚࠸ࡿ4㸦ᅗ⾲ 2㸧ࠋ1970 ᖺ௦ࡽ 1980 ᖺ௦ࡅ࡚ࡣࠊ55 ṓ ᐃᖺไࡽ 60 ṓᐃᖺไࡢ⛣⾜ࡀ㐍ࡳࠊ㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࡢே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡀ㧗ࡲࡗࡓ ࡇࡀࠊࣇࣛࢵࢺࡢせᅉࡋ࡚ᣦࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦Clark and Ogawa (1992)㸧ࠋࡓ ࡔࡋࠊࡇࡢᙜࡣ⤒῭ᡂ㛗⋡ࡀ㧗ࡃࠊ㈤㔠ࡢỈ‽⮬యࡣୖ᪼ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦ᅗ⾲ 3㸧ࠋ 1990 ᖺ௦ධࡿࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡣ୍ẁࣇࣛࢵࢺࡍࡿࡶࠊ㈤㔠ࡢఙ 3 ࡇࡢࠊⱝᖺປാ⪅ࢆ᪂ࡓ㞠⏝ࡋࠊࡑࡢ࢚࢘ࢺࢆᘬࡁୖࡆࡿࡇ࡛ࠊ㈤㔠ປാ⏕ ⏘ᛶࡢࣂࣛࣥࢫࢆಖࡘࡇࡀྍ⬟࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡋࡋ࡞ࡀࡽࠊࢃࡀᅜࡢࡼ࠺ࠊ⤒῭ᡂ㛗⋡ࡀ ప࡞ࡶ࡛ࠊⱝᖺປാ౪⤥ࡢ⦰ᑠࡀணࡉࢀࡿሙྜࠊⱝᖺປാ⪅ࡢቑຍࡣᑗ᮶ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓ ᡂࣂࣛࣥࢫࢆ࠼ࡗ࡚ᝏࡉࡏࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡶ࠶ࡿࠋ 4 ࢃࡀᅜ࡛ࡣࠊ➨୍ḟୡ⏺ᡓᚋࠊ㔜ᕤᴗศ㔝ࡢⓎᒎࡼࡾࠊ⇍⦎ᕤࡢ⫱ᡂᐃ╔ࡀㄢ㢟 ࡉࢀࠊ1930 ᖺࡈࢁࡲ࡛ࡣ㈈㛸⣔ᴗࢆ୰ᚰᖺຌ㈤㔠ไᗘࡀᑟධࡉࢀࡓ㸦୕㇂㸦1997㸧㸧 ࠋ ➨ḟୡ⏺ᡓᚋࡢ㧗ᗘᡂ㛗ᮇࡣࠊ㧗࠸⤒῭ᡂ㛗㇏ᐩ࡞ⱝᖺປാ౪⤥ࢆ⫼ᬒࠊᖺຌ ㈤㔠ไᗘࢆࡣࡌࡵࡍࡿ᪥ᮏⓗ㞠⏝័⾜ࡀᴗࢆ୰ᚰ☜❧࣭ᬑཬࡋࡓࠋ 5 ࡧࡣప㏞ࡋࡓࠋࡇࡢ⫼ᬒࡣࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡀప㏞ࡍࡿࡶࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋 ࡀ㐍ࢇࡔࡇࡀࠊᴗࡢே௳㈝㈇ᢸࢆቑຍࡉࡏࠊ㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࢆ୰ᚰࡋࡓ㈤ 㔠ୖ᪼ࡢᢚไࡘ࡞ࡀࡗࡓⅬࡀ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋᐇ㝿ࠊࢃࡀᅜᴗࡢປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡣࠊ 1990 ᖺࡈࢁࡽᶓࡤ࠸㌿ࡌ࡚࠾ࡾࠊᴗࡢே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡀቑࡋࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿ 㸦ᅗ⾲ 4㸧ࠋࡲࡓࠊ1990 ᖺ௦௨㝆ࠊᑡᏊ㧗㱋ࡢὶࢀࡀᙉࡲࡿ୰࡛ࠊປാேཱྀࡢ ከ࠸ᅋሢୡ௦ࡀ㧗㱋ࡋࡓࡇࡸࠊከࡃࡢᴗࡀ᪂༞᥇⏝ࢆᢚไࡋࡓࡇࡽࠊ ປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋ࡀ㐍ࢇ࡛࠸ࡿ㸦ᅗ⾲ 5㸧 ࠋປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋ࡣࠊே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡢቑຍ ࢆᚋᢲࡋࡋࡓࡳࡽࢀࠊࡓ࠼ࡤࠊ50 ṓ௦ᚋ༙ࡢே௳㈝ࡣࠊ2000 ᖺ௦༙ࡤࡣ 1990 ᖺࡢ 2 ಸ௨ୖ㐩ࡋࡓ㸦ᅗ⾲ 6㸧ࠋ ࡇ࠺ࡋࡓே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡢቑຍࢆཷࡅ࡚ࠊ୍㒊ࡢᴗ࡛ࡣࠊ୰㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࢆᑐ㇟ ࡋࡓ᪩ᮇ㏥⫋ไᗘࡢᑟධ࡞ࠊே௳㈝ᢚไྥࡅࡓᑐᛂࡀᅗࡽࢀࡓࠋࡉࡽࠊ ᖺຌ㈤㔠ไᗘࢆぢ┤ࡋࠊᡂᯝ⩏ไᗘࢆᑟධࡍࡿືࡁࡀࡳࡽࢀࡿ୰࡛ࠊከࡃࡢ ᴗࡀ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢࣇࣛࢵࢺࢆ㐍ࡵࠊ㈤㔠ୖ᪼ࢆᢚไࡋࡓ㸦ᅗ⾲ 7㸧 ࠋඛࡢᣦ ࡢ࠾ࡾࠊ௬ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡀጇᙜࡍࡿ࡞ࡽࡤࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢప㏞ࡸປാ ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋ࡣࠊࡇ࠺ࡋࡓ㞠⏝࣭㈤㔠⎔ቃࡢኚࢆࡶࡓࡽࡍࡶࡢ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ ᅋሢୡ௦ࡀᐃᖺ㏥⫋ࢆ㏄࠼ࡓ 2000 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࠊ㧗㱋ࡼࡿே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡢ ቑຍࡣࠊ࠸ࡗࡓࢇⴠࡕ╔࠸࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊඛ⾜ࡁࡣࠊປാேཱྀࡀከ࠸ᅋሢࢪ ࣗࢽୡ௦㸦1970 ᖺ௦๓༙⏕ࡲࢀ㸧ࡀ㧗㱋ࡍࡿࠋࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡣࣇࣛ ࢵࢺࡋࡓࡣ࠸࠼ࠊ⡿Ḣㅖᅜẚࡿ࡞࠾ࡶࢫࢸ࣮ࣉ࡛࠶ࡿࡇࢆ㋃ࡲ ࠼ࡿࠊᴗࡼࡗ࡚ࡣࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡸ᪂༞᥇⏝ࡢືྥḟ➨࡛ࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋 ࡀࡧே௳㈝㈇ᢸࢆᢲࡋୖࡆࡿᒁ㠃ධࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡶ࠶ࡿ5㸦ᅗ⾲ 8㸧ࠋ 㸦㸰㸧⡿ᅜࡢ ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᖺຌ㈤㔠ࡸ㞠⏝័⾜ࡢኚࡣࠊࢃࡀᅜ㝈ࡗࡓヰ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ࠋࡓ ࠼ࡤࠊ⡿ᅜ࠾࠸࡚ࡶࠊ1920 ᖺ௦ࡈࢁࡲ࡛ࠊ㛗ᮇ㞠⏝࣭ᖺຌ㈤㔠ไᗘࢆ᥇⏝ࡋ ࡚࠸ࡓᴗࡀᑡ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡗࡓࠋU.S. Steel ࡸ General Electric ࡞ࡢᴗ࡛ࡣࠊ ⥆ᖺᩘࡸᖺ㱋ᛂࡌࡓ㈤㔠ᨭ⤥ࡸෆ㒊᪼㐍ࡢࠊᴗෆ㓄⨨ࡼࡿࣞ ࢜ࣇᅇ㑊࡞ࠊ࠸ࢃࡺࡿ᪥ᮏⓗ㞠⏝័⾜㢮ఝࡢࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡀ᥇⏝ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡓ ᣦࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ6㸦୰㤿㸦1987㸧㸧ࠋࡶࡗࡶࠊ1929 ᖺࡢᜍៃࢆዎᶵ≧ἣࡣ୍ ኚࡋࡓࠋᙜึࡇࡑࠊᴗࡣ㞠⏝ࡢ☜ಖࡸ㈤㔠ࡢ⥔ᣢດࡵࡓࡶࡢࡢࠊἣࡀ㛗 5 ᴗࢆྲྀࡾᕳࡃ⎔ቃࡀࡁࡃኚࡋࡓࡶᣊࢃࡽࡎࠊࢃࡀᅜࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡀࡁ࠸ Ⅼࡘ࠸࡚ࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ㄪᰝ⤫ィᒁ㸦2010㸧ࡣࠊ㛗ᮇ㞠⏝ࢆ๓ᥦࡋࡓࢃࡀᅜࡢゎ㞠ἲไࡸ 㐣ཤ✚ࡉࢀࡓேⓗ㈨ᮏ࣭⤒Ⴀࣀ࢘ࣁ࢘ࡢ⥅ᢎ࡞ࢆ⫼ᬒࠊᖺຌ㈤㔠ไᗘࡀ᰿ᙉࡃṧ ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿⅬࢆᣦࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 6 ࡑࡢࡶࠊᴗࡀ♫Ꮿࡸࣞࢪ࣮࣭ࣕ⚟ཌ⏕タࠊკク་ไᗘࠊ♫ෆࡢᩍ⫱ᶵ㛵ࠊྛ ✀ಖ㝤ไᗘ࡞ࢆᥦ౪ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡇࡀሗ࿌ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 6 ᘬࡃࡘࢀ࡚ࠊつᶍ࡞ேဨᩚ⌮ࡸ㈤㔠ࡢᘬࡁୗࡆࢆవ࡞ࡃࡉࢀ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ1990 ᖺ௦௨㝆ࡢࢃࡀᅜఝࡓࡼ࠺࡞⌧㇟ࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓࠋ ࡑࡢᚋࠊ⡿ᅜ࡛ࡣᚑ᮶ࡢ㞠⏝ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡢぢ┤ࡋࡀᚎࠎ㐍ࢇࡔࠋࡑࡋ࡚ࠊ⤒ ῭ᡂ㛗⋡ࡀࡁࡃపୗࡋࡓ 1970 ᖺ௦௨㝆ࠊᴗࡢࣜࢫࢺࣛࢡࢳࣕࣜࣥࢢࡀάⓎ ࡋࠊ㛗ᮇ㞠⏝ዎ⣙ࡶ࡙ࡃᖺຌ㈤㔠య⣔ࡣࠊࢇࡳࡽࢀ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡗࡓ ࠸ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦Cappelli (2001)㸧 ࠋᐇ㝿ࠊ⡿ᅜ࠾ࡅࡿ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡣࠊᚎࠎ ࣇࣛࢵࢺࡋ࡚ࡁࡓࡇࡀࢃࡿ㸦ᅗ⾲ 9㸧ࠋ 㸱㸬ᐇドศᯒ ๓⠇࡛ࡣࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡀᡂ❧ࡍࡿࡶ࡛ࡣࠊணᮇࡏࡊࡿປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢప ㏞ࡸປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋ࡀ⏕ࡌࡓሙྜࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢࣇࣛࢵࢺࡸ㈤㔠ୖ᪼ࡢᢚไ ࡀ⏕ࡌࡿྍ⬟ᛶࢆᣦࡋࠊࡑࢀࢆᕠࡿᐇ㛵ಀࢆᩚ⌮ࡋࡓࠋࡇࡢ⠇࡛ࡣࠊᐇ㝿 ࠊ ࠕ1990 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࡢࢃࡀᅜ࠾࠸࡚ࠊປാ⪅ࡀ㧗㱋ࡋࠊ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ ᛶࡢ㞳ࡀࡁ࠸ᴗࠊ㈤㔠ୖ᪼⋡ࡀᢚไࡉࢀࡓࠖྍ⬟ᛶࢆᐇドࡍࡿࠋᐇ ドศᯒࡣẁ㝵࡛⾜࠺ࠋ➨୍ẁ㝵࡛ࡣࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࢆࡑࢀ ࡒࢀ᥎ᐃࡋࠊᖺ㱋㝵ᒙࡈࡢ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㞳ᖜࢆィ ࡍࡿࠋ➨ẁ㝵 ࡛ࡣࠊࡇࡢ㞳ᖜࡢࡁࡉࡀປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ኚ⋡ᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡋࡓ࠺᳨ ドࡍࡿࠋ 㸱㸫㸯㸬㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢ㞳ࡢィ ᐇドศᯒࡢ➨୍ẁ㝵ࡋ࡚ࠊᴗつᶍู࣭⏘ᴗูࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈປാ⏕⏘ᛶ ࣮࢝ࣈࢆ᥎ᐃࡋࠊࡑࡢ㞳ᖜࢆィ ࡍࡿ7ࠋ 㸦㸯㸧ࢹ࣮ࢱ ィ ⏝ࡍࡿࢹ࣮ࢱࡣࠊཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ⤒῭⏘ᴗ ┬ࠕᴗάືᇶᮏㄪᰝࠖࡢಶ⚊ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡇࡢ࠺ࡕࠊ ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪ ᰝࠖࡢಶ⚊ࢹ࣮ࢱࡽࡣࠊປാ⪅ಶேࣞ࣋ࣝࡢປാ㛫࣭㈤㔠ࡸࠊᛶู࣭ᖺ㱋࣭ ᏛṔ࡞ࡢᒓᛶሗࡢࠊປാ⪅ࡀᡤᒓࡍࡿᴗࡢ⏘ᴗ࣭ᚑᴗဨつᶍࢆ⏝ ࡍࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊࠕᴗάືᇶᮏㄪᰝࠖࡽࡣࠊಶูᴗࡢຍ౯್㢠ࠊ⤥⥲㢠ࠊ ㈨ᮏࢫࢺࢵࢡ㸦ᅛᐃ㈨ᮏᙧᡂ㸧 ࠊ⤒ᖖ┈ࠊタ❧ᖺࢆ⏝ࡍࡿࠋ ࡑࡢ࠺࠼࡛ࠊ ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖࠕᴗάືᇶᮏㄪᰝࠖࡢࡘࡢಶ⚊ 7 ィ ᪉ἲࡣࠊᴫࡡᕝཱྀ㸦2007㸧࡞ࡽࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 7 ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ࣐ࢵࢳࣥࢢࡋ࡚⤫୍ⓗ࡞ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫࢆసᡂࡍࡿ8ࠋᐇドศᯒ࡛ࡣࠊ ᴗࣞ࣋ࣝࡢᩍ⫱ᖺᩘู࣭ᖺ㱋㝵ᒙูࡢ⥲ປാ㛫ࡀᚲせ࡞ࡿࡢ࡛ࠊ ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀 ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖࡢಶேࣞ࣋ࣝࡢປാ㛫ࢆᴗู㞟ィࡋࠊࡇࢀࢆປാ⪅ᢳฟ ⋡ᴗᡤつᶍ࣭ᴗつᶍẚ⋡ࢆ⏝࠸࡚ᴗࣞ࣋ࣝࡢ⥲ປാ㛫⭾ࡽࡲࡋ ࡓ9ࠋ ࡇࡢࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫࡣࠊᶆᮏᮇ㛫ࡀ 1998 ᖺ㹼2012 ᖺࠊᶆᮏᴗᩘࡀᘏ 22,847 ♫ࠊປാ⪅ᩘࡀᘏ 806,235 ேࡢࣃࢿࣝࢹ࣮ࢱ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ ⤫ィㄪᰝ࡛ࠖࡣࠊㄪᰝᑐ㇟ࢆẖᖺὙ࠸᭰࠼ࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊ」ᩘᖺࢃࡓࡗ࡚⥅⥆ⓗ ㄪᰝࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿᴗࡀᑡ࡞࠸ࠊປാ⪅ಶேࡶᇶᮏⓗẖᖺධࢀ᭰ࢃࡿࠋ ࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊࡇࡢࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫࡣࠊ⣔ิ᪉ྥࡢḞ ್ࡀከ࠸ఝࣃࢿࣝࢹ ࣮ࢱ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 㸦㸰㸧᥎ᐃ᪉ἲ ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࢆィ ࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊḟࡢ⏕⏘㛵ᩘ㈤㔠㛵ᩘ ࢆ᥎ᐃࡍࡿࠋ⏕⏘㛵ᩘࡣࢥࣈ࣭ࢲࢢࣛࢫᆺࢆ࣮࣋ࢫࡋࡓࠋ 㸦⏕⏘㛵ᩘ㸧 log yit (1 E ) * ¦¦ log lhi ,ed ,age,t exp(D1 D 2 ed D3 age D 4 (age2 / 100)) ed age 㸩E log Kit d _ year d _ establishment㸩uit 㸦㈤㔠㛵ᩘ㸧 log wit J 0 ¦¦ log lhi ,ed ,age,t exp(J 1 J 2 ed J 3 age J 4 (age 2 / 100)) ed age d _ year d _ establishment H it ࡇࡇ࡛ࠊyit ࡣ i ᴗࡢ t ᖺ࠾ࡅࡿຍ౯್㢠ࠊlhi,ed,age,t ࡣ୍⯡ປാ⪅ࡢᏛᰯ 8 ࣐ࢵࢳࣥࢢࡢࡓࡵࡣࠊ ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ࠾ࡅࡿປാ⪅ࡀࠊ ࠕᴗάືᇶᮏㄪᰝࠖ ࡢࡢᴗᒓࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࢆ≉ᐃࡋ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࡀࠊ୧⪅ࡣඹ㏻ࡢᴗᡤ␒ྕࡀ࡞ ࠸ࠋࡇࡢࡓࡵࠊ⥲ົ┬ࠕ⤒῭ࢭࣥࢧࢫࠖ㸦ᪧࠕᴗᡤ࣭ᴗ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ 㸧ࢆ⏝࠸࡚ࠊ ࠕᴗά ືᇶᮏㄪᰝࠖ࠾ࡅࡿಶูᴗࡢ㒔㐨ᗓ┴␒ྕࠊᕷ༊⏫ᮧ␒ྕࠊㄪᰝ༊␒ྕࠊᴗᡤ␒ྕ ࢆᢕᥱࡋࡓ࠺࠼࡛ࠊࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ࠾ࡅࡿປാ⪅ࡀࡢᴗᒓࡍࡿࡢࢆ≉ ᐃࡋࡓࠋࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖࡣࠊࠕ⤒῭ࢭࣥࢧࢫࠖ㸦ᪧࠕᴗᡤ࣭ᴗ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ㸧 ඹ㏻ࡢ㒔㐨ᗓ┴␒ྕࠊᕷ༊⏫ᮧ␒ྕࠊㄪᰝ༊␒ྕࠊᴗᡤ␒ྕࡀᏑᅾࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊࡇࡢ᪉ ἲ࡛࣐ࢵࢳࣥࢢ࡛ࡁࡿࠋ 9 ᴗᡤつᶍ࣭ᴗつᶍẚ⋡ࡣࠊ ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖࡀᴗᡤࣞ࣋ࣝࠊ ࠕᴗάືᇶᮏ ㄪᰝࠖࡀᴗࣞ࣋ࣝࡢ⤫ィ࡛࠶ࡿࡓࡵ⏝ࡍࡿࠋ 8 ᩍ⫱ᖺᩘ㸦ed㸧ู10࣭ᖺ㱋㝵ᒙ㸦age㸧ู11ࡢປാᢞධ㛫ࠊKit ࡣ㈨ᮏࢫࢺࢵࢡࠊ wit ࡣ⤥⥲㢠ࢆ⾲ࡍࠋࡇࡢࠊᖺࢲ࣑࣮d_yearࠊᴗࡢタ❧ᖺ௦ࢲ࣑࣮ 㸦d_establishment㸧12ࢆㄝ᫂ኚᩘࡋ࡚ຍ࠼ࡓࠋuit İit ࡣㄗᕪ㡯࡛࠶ࡿࠋຍ౯ ್࣭㈤㔠ᖺ㱋ࡢ㛵ಀࡀ㠀⥺ᙧ࡛࠶ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࢆ⪃៖ࡋ࡚ࠊࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢㄝ᫂ኚᩘ ᖺ㱋ࡢ 1 ḟ㡯 2 ḟ㡯ࢆධࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣ Į3 Į4 ࡢࡁࡉ࡛ࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡣ Ȗ3 Ȗ4 ࡢࡁࡉ࡛ࡑࢀࡒࢀ⾲ࢃࡉࢀࡿࠋ ⏘ᴗ࣭つᶍࡢࠊᴗつᶍࡸ⏘ᴗࡼࡿᕪࢆ⪃៖ࡋ࡚ࠊᴗつᶍู㸦 ᴗࠊ୰ሀ୰ᑠᴗ㸧 ࣭⏘ᴗู㸦〇㐀ᴗࠊ㠀〇㐀ᴗ㸧᥎ᐃࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ13ࠋࡇࡇ࡛ࠊ ᴗࡣᚑᴗဨᩘ 1,000 ே௨ୖࠊ୰ሀ୰ᑠᴗࡣࡑࢀ௨እࡢᴗࢆᣦࡍࠋᅗ ⾲ 10㸦ୖẁ㸧࡛ࡣࠊグ㏙⤫ィ㔞ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ᥎ᐃ᪉ἲࡣࠊ㠀⥺ᙧ᭱ᑠἲ ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ 㸦㸱㸧᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝ ⏕⏘㛵ᩘࡢ㈨ᮏᢞධࡿࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ 㸦ȕ㸧 ᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝࢆᅗ⾲ 11 ࡛♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ࡣࠊ⏘ᴗ࡛ 0.7 ༙ࡤࠊ〇㐀ᴗ࡛ 0.7㹼0.8 ྎࠊ㠀〇㐀ᴗ࡛ 0.5㹼0.6 ⛬ᗘ࡛᭷ព ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ㈤㔠㛵ᩘ࠾ࡅࡿᏛᰯᩍ⫱ᖺᩘࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ㸦Ȗ2㸧ࡣࠊṇ࡛᭷ព ࡞ࡗ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ㧗ᏛṔ࡞ࡿ㈤㔠ࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇࡀ♧ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ⏕⏘㛵ᩘ ࠾ࡅࡿᏛᰯᩍ⫱ᖺᩘࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ㸦Į2㸧ࡣࠊ⏘ᴗࠊ〇㐀ᴗ࡛㈇࡞ࡗ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ ᏛṔࡢ㧗ࡉࡀᚲࡎࡋࡶ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㧗ࡉࢆ⾲ࡋ࡚࠸࡞࠸ྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࡀࠊ㠀〇㐀ᴗ ࡛ࡣṇ࡛᭷ព࡞ࡗ࡚࠾ࡾࠊᏛṔࡀ㧗࠸⏕⏘ᛶࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚ ࠸ࡿࠋ ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁ㛵ࡍࡿࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ㸦Į3࣭Į4ࠊȖ3࣭Ȗ4㸧 ࢆࡳࡿࠊ⏕⏘㛵ᩘࠊ㈤㔠㛵ᩘࡶࠊ1 ḟ㡯ࡣṇࠊ2 ḟ㡯ࡣ㈇࡛᭷ព࡞ࡗ࡚ ࠸ࡿ14ࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊຍ౯್࣭㈤㔠ࡣᖺ㱋ࡀୖࡀࡿࡘࢀ࡚ୖ᪼ࡍࡿࡀࠊࡑࡢ ୖ᪼⋡ࡣ㏴ῶࡍࡿࠊ࠶ࡿᖺ㱋࡛పୗ㌿ࡌᚓࡿࡇࡀ♧ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋປാ ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡢ㐪࠸ࡣࠊ1 ḟ㡯ࠊ2 ḟ㡯ࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡢ⤌ࡳ ྜࢃࡏᖺ㱋Ỉ‽౫Ꮡࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡢࡁࡉࢆẚ㍑ࡋ࡚ 10 ed ࡣ 9 ᖺ㸦୰༞㸧ࠊ12 ᖺ㸦㧗༞㸧ࠊ14 ᖺ㸦㧗ᑓ࣭▷༞㸧ࠊ16 ᖺ㸦༞௨ୖ㸧ࢆ⾲ࡍࠋ 11 age ࡣ 15㹼19 ṓࠊ20㹼24 ṓࠊ25㹼29 ṓࠊ30㹼34 ṓࠊ35㹼39 ṓࠊ40㹼44 ṓࠊ45㹼49 ṓࠊ 50㹼54 ṓࠊ55㹼59 ṓࡢ 5 ṓ้ࡳᖺ㱋ࢆ⾲ࡍࠋ㈤㔠య⣔ࡣࠊᐃᖺ㏥⫋ࢆ㏄࠼ࡿ 60 ṓ௦௨㝆 ࡁࡃኚࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊᮏ✏࡛ศᯒᑐ㇟ࡍࡿᖺ㱋༊ศࡣࠊ15㹼59 ṓ㝈ᐃࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 12 ῝ᑿ࣭ᶒ㸦2011㸧ࡀࠊ♫㱋ࡼࡗ࡚ᴗࡢ⏕⏘ᛶ㸦TFP㸧ࡀ␗࡞ࡿࡇࢆᣦࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ ࠊ⊦ᮌ㸦2001㸧ࡸຬୖ࣭᳃ᮏ㸦2006㸧ࡣࠊ♫㱋ࡼࡗ࡚㈤㔠య⣔࣭㞠⏝័⾜ࡀ␗࡞ࡿࡇ ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࢀࢆ㋃ࡲ࠼࡚ࠊ⏕⏘㛵ᩘ࠾ࡼࡧ㈤㔠㛵ᩘᴗࡢタ❧ᖺ௦ࢲ࣑࣮ࢆຍ ࠼࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 13 ⏘ᴗ࣭つᶍࡢ᥎ᐃᘧࡣࠊ⏘ᴗࢲ࣑࣮࠾ࡼࡧᴗつᶍࢲ࣑࣮ࢆຍ࠼࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 14 ᖺ㱋ࡢ 3 ḟ㡯௨ୖࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊᏳᐃⓗ᭷ព࡞⤖ᯝࡀᚓࡽࢀ࡞ࡗࡓࠋ 9 ࡶࠊ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡢᕪࡣ୍ᴫホ౯࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࠋࡑࡇ࡛ᅗ⾲ 12 ࡛ࡣࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࢆどぬⓗ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡇ࡛ࡣࠊᕝཱྀ㸦2007㸧ྠᵝࠊ 15㹼19 ṓⅬࡢ㈤㔠ࢆ 1 ᇶ‽ࡋࡓ࠺࠼࡛ࠊ⏕ᾭࡢ㈤㔠⥲㢠⏕⏘⥲㢠ࡀ୍ ⮴ࡍࡿࡼ࠺ᅗ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ᴗ࡛ࡣࠊ〇㐀ᴗ࣭㠀〇㐀ᴗࡶ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈ ࡢഴࡁࡼࡾࡶࡁ࠸ࠋ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡣ 40 ṓ௦࡛ࣆ࣮ࢡ࡞ࡾࠊ50 ṓ௦࡛⦆ࡸ పୗࡍࡿ୍᪉ࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡼࡾࡶࡸࡸ᪩࠸ࢱ࣑ࣥࢢ࡛ࣆ ࣮ࢡࢆ㏄࠼ࠊ50 ṓ௦ࡅ࡚పୗᖜࡀࡁࡃ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡍ࡞ࢃࡕࠊⱝᖺᮇࡢ ㈤㔠ẚ࡚ࠊ㧗ᖺᮇࡢ㈤㔠ࡢ᪉ࡀࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶẚ࡚㧗タᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠾ ࡾࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝᩚྜⓗ࡞⤖ᯝ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ୍᪉ࠊ୰ሀ୰ᑠᴗ࡛ࡣࠊ 〇㐀ᴗ࠾࠸࡚㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡣᴫࡡ୍⮴ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠊ 㠀〇㐀ᴗ࠾࠸࡚ࡶ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢᖺ㱋㛫ࡢ㞳ࡣᴗẚࢀࡤᑠࡉ ࠸ࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡣࠊᴗࡼࡾ㐺ࡋࡓ௬ㄝ࡛࠶ࡿ࠸࠼ࡿࠋ ࡇ࠺ࡋࡓ᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝࡣࠊ〇㐀ᴗࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡣປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁ ࡼࡾࡶᛴ࡛࠶ࡿࡇࢆ♧ࡋࡓᕝཱྀ㸦2007㸧࡞ࡢඛ⾜◊✲ࡶᴫࡡᩚྜⓗ࡛ ࠶ࡿ15ࠋࡲࡓࠊୖሙᴗࡢே࣭ປົᢸᙜ⪅ࢆᑐ㇟ࣥࢣ࣮ࢺㄪᰝࢆ⾜ࡗࡓබ ┈㈈ᅋἲே᪥ᮏ⏕⏘ᛶᮏ㒊㸦2013㸧ࡼࢀࡤࠊࡢᡂᯝ࣭㈉⊩ᗘẚ࡚㈤ 㔠ࡀ㧗࠸ᖺ㱋ᒙࡋ࡚ࠊ50 ṓ௦⟅࠼ࡓᴗࡀ 4 ࠊ40 ṓ௦ࡀ 3 ࠊ20㹼30 ṓ ௦ࡣ 1 ᮍ‶࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡇ࡛ࡢ᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝࡣࠊࡇ࠺ࡋࡓࣥࢣ࣮ࢺㄪᰝ ࡶᩚྜⓗ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ 㸱㸫㸰㸬㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㞳ࡀ㈤㔠ኚ⋡ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪 ᐇドศᯒࡢ➨ẁ㝵ࡋ࡚ࠊ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㞳ࡢࡁࡉࡀࠊປാ⪅ࡢ ㈤㔠ኚ⋡ࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡋࡓࢆᐃ㔞ⓗศᯒࡍࡿࠋ࠶ࡿᴗ࠾ ࡅࡿ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㞳ࡣࠊ3㸫1 ⠇࡛᥎ᐃࡋࡓ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࢝ ࣮ࣈࡢ㞳ࢆࡶ⟬ฟࡉࢀࡿࠋ 15 ᾏእ࡛ࡢᐇド⤖ᯝࢆࡳࡿࠊHellerstein and Neumark (1995) ࡣࢫ࢚ࣛࣝࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࠊ Hellerstein et al. (1999) ࡣ⡿ᅜࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚ࠊ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡣᕪ ࡀ࡞࠸ࡇࢆ♧ࡋࡓࠋ୍᪉ࠊHellerstein and Neumark (2004) ࡛ࡣࠊࡼࡾつᶍ࡞⡿ᅜࡢࢹ࣮ ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡿࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡀ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡼࡾࡶᛴ࡛ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡀᡂ❧ࡋ࡚ ࠸ࡿࡇࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋྠᵝࡢᯟ⤌ࡳ࡛ࠊVan Ours and Stoeldraijer (2010) ࡣࢻࢶ࡛ྠ௬ ㄝࡣᡂ❧ࡋ࡞࠸ࡍࡿ୍᪉ࠊCrépon et al. (2002) ࡣࣇࣛࣥࢫࠊDostie (2011) ࡣ࢝ࢼࢲࠊ Ilmakunnas and Maliranta (2005) ࡣࣇࣥࣛࣥࢻࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚ࠊྠ௬ㄝࡢᡂ❧ࢆᨭᣢࡋ࡚ ࠸ࡿࠋ 10 㸦㸯㸧ࢹ࣮ࢱ 3㸫1 ⠇࡛⏝ࡋࡓࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖࠕᴗάືᇶᮏㄪᰝࠖࢆ࣐ࢵ ࢳࣥࢢࡋࡓఝࣃࢿࣝࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝ࡋࠊࡇࢀኻᴗ⋡ࡸᾘ㈝⪅≀౯ᣦᩘ࠸ࡗ ࡓ࣐ࢡࣟࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ᥋ྜࡋࡓࠋ⿕ㄝ᫂ኚᩘࡋ࡚⏝࠸ࡿ㈤㔠ኚ⋡ࡣࠊ࠶ࡿᖺ ࡑࡢ๓ᖺ࠾࠸࡚ࠊձᴗࠊղᛶูࠊճᏛṔࠊմ⥆ᖺᩘࠊյᑵᴗᙧែࠊնᖺ 㱋ࡢ 6 ࡘࡢᒓᛶࡀࡍ࡚ඹ㏻ࡍࡿேࡢປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ࡽ⟬ฟࡋࡓ16ࠋ ᥎ᐃ࡛ࡣࠊ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㞳ࢆㄝ᫂ኚᩘࡋ࡚⏝ࡍࡿࠋࡇࢀࡣࠊ3㸫 1 ⠇࡛᥎ᐃࡋࡓ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡽᖺ㱋㝵ᒙࡈ୧⪅ࡢ㞳 ࢆ⟬ฟࡋࠊࡇࡢ㞳ಶูᴗ࠾ࡅࡿປാ⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࢆࡌ࡚⟬ฟࡍࡿࠋ ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࣭ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣࠊ࠶ࡿᴗࡀᒓࡍࡿつᶍู㸦ᴗ࣭୰ሀ୰ ᑠᴗ㸧 ࣭⏘ᴗู㸦〇㐀ᴗ࣭㠀〇㐀ᴗ㸧ࡢࡶࡢࢆ㐺⏝ࡍࡿ17ࠋࡲࡓࠊ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ࣭ ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣࠊ᥎ᐃᮇ㛫୰㸦1998 ᖺ㹼2012 ᖺ㸧ࠊ୍ᐃ௬ᐃࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ18ࠋ 㸦㸰㸧᥎ᐃ᪉ἲ ḟᘧࡢ࠾ࡾࠊ୍⯡ປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ኚ⋡ࢆㄝ᫂ኚᩘࡍࡿ㛵ᩘࢆ᥎ᐃࡍࡿ19ࠋ d log wit S 0 S 1 d log Pit S 2 d log CPI t 1 S 3 dUEit S 4 WageGapi ,t 1 d _ female d _ education d _ year㸩H it dlogwit ࡣࠊປാ⪅ i ࡢ㈤㔠ኚ⋡㸦ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ㸧ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ㈤㔠ࡋ࡚ࠊձ 㛫࠶ࡓࡾᡤᐃෆ⤥ࠊղ㛫࠶ࡓࡾᐃᮇ⤥㸦ᡤᐃෆ⤥㸩ᡤᐃእ⤥㸧 ࠊճ≉ ู⤥ࡢ 3 ࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࢆ⏝ࡍࡿࠋ ࠊdlogCPIt-1 dlogPit ࡣࠊປാ⪅ i ࡀᒓࡍࡿᴗࡢ⤒ᖖ┈ࡢ๓ᖺẚ㸦ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ㸧 ࡣࠊ๓ᮇࡢᾘ㈝⪅≀౯ᣦᩘ㸦⏕㩭㣗ရࢆ㝖ࡃ⥲ྜ㸧ࡢ๓ᖺẚࠊdUEit ࡣປാ⪅ i 16 ࠶ࡿ≉ᐃࡢປാ⪅࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊ␗࡞ࡿேࡢປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ࡽ๓ᖺẚࢆ⟬ฟࡍࡿ⌮⏤ࡣࠊ ᐃᮇ᪼⤥ࡢຠᯝࢆ㝖ࡃࡇ࠶ࡿࠋࡍ࡞ࢃࡕࠊ࠶ࡿ≉ᐃࡢປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ୖ᪼⋡ࡣࠊᖺ㱋 ࡀୖࡀࡿࡇ࡛⮬ືⓗ㈤㔠ࡀୖ᪼ࡍࡿᐃᮇ᪼⤥ࡀᫎࡉࢀࡿࠋࡇࡢຠᯝࢆ㝖ࡃࡓࡵࡣࠊ ᖺ๓ᖺ࡛ྠࡌᖺ㱋ࡢປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ࢆẚ㍑ࡍࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࠋ୧⪅ࡢ㈤㔠ᕪࡣࠊ⬟ຊࡢ ᕪ࡞ࡀᫎࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࡀࠊࡇࢀࡣࣉࣛࢫࡶ࣐ࢼࢫࡶ࡞ࡾᚓࡿࡶࡢ࡛ ࠶ࡾࠊ᥎ᐃୖࡣㄗᕪࡋ࡚ㄆ㆑ࡉࢀࡿࡶࡢࡋ࡚ᢅ࠺ࠋ 17 ࡇࡇ࡛⏝ࡍࡿ㈤㔠࣭ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣࠊつᶍู࣭⏘ᴗูࡢ 4 ࢝ࢸࢦ࣮ࣜศ㢮ࡉࢀ ࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᐇ㝿ࡢ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡸປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣᴗࡼࡗ࡚␗࡞ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿ ࡇࢆ㋃ࡲ࠼ࡿࠊࡉࡽ⣽࠸つᶍู࣭⏘ᴗศ㢮ูࠊ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣᴗู᥎ᐃࡍࡿࡇࡀ ᮃࡲࡋ࠸ࡀࠊᶆᮏࢧࢬࡢ☜ಖࡢほⅬࡽࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᢅ࠸ࡵ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 18 ㈤㔠࣭ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡀẖᮇኚࡍࡿࡼ࠺ᖺࡈ᥎ᐃࢆ⾜࠺ࡇࡀᮃࡲࡋ࠸ࡀࠊ ᶆᮏᩘࡢไ⣙ࡽࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᢅ࠸ࡵ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 19 ᥎ᐃࡣ୍⯡ປാ⪅ࡢࡳࢆᑐ㇟ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 11 ࡀᒓࡍࡿᛶู࣭ᖺ㱋㝵ᒙูኻᴗ⋡ࡢ๓ᖺᕪࢆ♧ࡍࠋWageGapi,t-1 ࡣࠊປാ⪅ i ࡀ ᒓࡍࡿᴗࡢ๓ᮇ࠾ࡅࡿ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㞳ࢆ♧ࡍࠋୖ㏙ࡢ࠾ࡾࠊ㈤ 㔠࣮࢝ࣈປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣࠊ᥎ᐃᮇ㛫࠾࠸୍࡚ᐃ࡛࠶ࡿࡀࠊ୧⪅ࡢ㞳 ࡌࡿປാ⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࡣ๓ᮇࡢ್ࢆ⏝ࡋࡓࠋࡇࡢኚᩘࡣࠊ๓ᮇ࠾ࡅࡿ ㈤㔠ࡀປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡼࡾࡶࡁ࠸ࠊᮇࡢ㈤㔠ࢆୗᢲࡋࡍࡿຠᯝࡀ࠶ࡿࢆ ᳨ドࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡾࠊᮇᚅࡉࢀࡿ➢ྕ᮲௳ࡣ㈇࡞ࡿ20ࠋࡇࡢࠊᒓᛶࡢ㐪࠸ ࢆ⪃៖ࡋ࡚ࠊᛶูࢲ࣑࣮㸦d_female㸧 ࠊᏛṔࢲ࣑࣮㸦d_education㸧 ࠊᖺࢲ࣑࣮㸦d_year㸧 ࢆຍ࠼ࡓࠋİit ࡣㄗᕪ㡯࡛࠶ࡿࠋグ㏙⤫ィ㔞ࡣᅗ⾲ 10㸦ୗẁ㸧࡛♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ᥎ᐃ᪉ἲࡣࠊ᭱ᑠἲ࡛࠶ࡿ21ࠋ᥎ᐃᮇ㛫ࡣ 1999 ᖺ㹼2012 ᖺࡋࡓࠋ 㸦㸱㸧᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝ ᅗ⾲ 13 ࡛᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡲࡎࠊつᶍ࣮࣋ࢫ࡛ࡳࡿࠊ⤒ᖖ┈ࡢ ఙࡧ⋡ࡀࠊ㈤㔠ࡢ✀㢮ࡼࡽࡎṇ࡛᭷ព࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠊᡤᐃෆ⤥ࡸᐃᮇ ⤥ࡼࡾࡶ≉ู⤥࡛ࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡢ್ࡀࡁࡃ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࢀࡣࠊᴗᴗ⦼ ࡢᨵၿࡣ㈤㔠ࢆୖ᪼ࡉࡏࡿຠᯝࢆᣢࡘࡀࠊࡑࡢᙳ㡪ࡣࡼࡾ≉ู⤥ᫎࡉࢀ ࡸࡍ࠸ࡇࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊᾘ㈝⪅≀౯ࡢఙࡧ⋡ࡶ㈤㔠ࡢ✀㢮ࡼࡽࡎ ṇ࡛᭷ព࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡀࠊ⤒ᖖ┈ࡢఙࡧྠᵝࠊ≉ู⤥࡛ࡑࡢឤᛂᗘࡀ㧗 ࡃ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋኻᴗ⋡ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊ≉ู⤥࡛ࡣ᭷ព࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࡶࡢࡢࠊᡤᐃ ෆ⤥ࡸᐃᮇ⤥࡛ࡣ㈇࡛᭷ព࡞㛵ಀࡀࡳࡽࢀ࡚࠾ࡾࠊປാ㟂⤥ࡢࡦࡗ㏕ࡀ㈤ 㔠ࢆୖᢲࡋࡍࡿഴྥࡀ࠶ࡿࠋ ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㞳ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊ≉ู⤥࡛᭷ព࡞㛵ಀࡣࡳࡽࢀ࡞࠸ࡶ ࡢࡢࠊᡤᐃෆ⤥ࡸᐃᮇ⤥࡛ࡣࠊ᭷ព㈇ࡢ㛵ಀࡀࡳࡽࢀࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊᡤᐃෆ ⤥ࡘ࠸࡚ࠊᴗつᶍู᥎ᐃࡋ࡚ࡶࠊ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㞳ࡣࠊᴗ࣭ ୰ሀ୰ᑠᴗࡶ᭷ព㈇ࡢ㛵ಀࡀ࠶ࡿࠋࡍ࡞ࢃࡕࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋ࡼࡗ ࡚ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢᑐẚ࡛㈤㔠ࡀ㐣࡞ࡿࠊᡤᐃෆ⤥ࢆ୰ᚰ㈤㔠ࡢఙࡧ ࡀୗᢲࡋࡉࢀࡿഴྥࡀ࠺ࡀࢃࢀࡿࠋ ࡇ࠺ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝࡽࡣࠊ≉ู⤥ࡣࠊࡑࡢࠎࡢᴗᴗ⦼ࢆࡼࡾᩄឤᫎࡋ ࡸࡍ࠸୍᪉ࠊᡤᐃෆ⤥ࡣࠊᴗᴗ⦼ࡸ≀౯ኚືࡢࠊ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ 㞳ࡢᙳ㡪ࢆࡼࡾཷࡅࡸࡍ࠸ࡇࡀ♧၀ࡉࢀࡿࠋࡾࢃࡅࠊ㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ ࡢ㞳ࡀࡁ࠸ᴗ࡛ࡣࠊປാ⪅ࡀ㧗㱋ࡋࡓࡇࡼࡿே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡢቑຍ ࡀࠊ1990 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࡢᡤᐃෆ⤥ࡢᢚไࡘ࡞ࡀࡗࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࠋ 20 ࢽ࣮ࣗࢣࣥࢪࣥࣔࢹࣝ࠾࠸࡚ࡶࠊ㈤㔠⢓╔ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿሙྜࠊ๓ᮇࡢ㈤㔠ࢠࣕࢵࣉ 㸦㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㞳㸧ࡣ㈤㔠ࡢఙࡧ⋡㈇ࡢᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡍࡇࡀ♧ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦ྂ ㈡࣭すᓮ㸦2006㸧ࢆཧ↷㸧ࠋ 21 F ᳨ᐃࠊHausman ᳨ᐃࠊBreusch and Pagan ᳨ᐃࡢ⤖ᯝࢆཷࡅ࡚ࠊࣉ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ᥎ᐃࢆ㑅ᢥࡋ ࡓࠋ 12 㸲㸬ࡲࡵ ᮏ✏࡛ࡣࠊࢃࡀᅜ࠾ࡅࡿ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࢆィ ࡋࠊࡑࡢ 㞳ࡀ㈤㔠ࡢఙࡧཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆ᳨ドࡋࡓࠋᮏ✏ࡽᚓࡽࢀࡓ⤖ㄽࡣࠊ௨ୗࡢ ࠾ࡾ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ➨୍ࠊᴗࢆ୰ᚰ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢഴࡁࡣປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡼ ࡾࡶࡁࡃࠊ㧗㱋⪅ປാ⏕⏘ᛶẚ࡚㈤㔠ࡀ㧗࡛࠶ࡿ⟬ฟࡉࢀࡿࠋ ࡇࡢ⌮ㄽⓗ࡞ゎ㔘ࡋ࡚ࠊᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝࡀጇᙜࡋᚓࡿࠋ➨ࠊࡇࡢ㈤㔠࣭ ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢࡶ࡛ࠊ㧗ᖺປാ⪅ࡢྜࡀ㧗࠸ᴗ࡞ࠊ㈤㔠㈇ᢸࡀ ປാ⏕⏘ᛶẚ࡚┦ᑐⓗࡁ࠸ᴗࠊ㈤㔠ୖ᪼⋡ࡀᢚไࡉࢀࡿഴྥ ࠶ࡿࠋ ㏆ᖺࡢࢃࡀᅜ㈤㔠ࡀఙࡧᝎࢇࡔ⫼ᬒࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊᵝࠎ࡞せᅉࡀᣦࡉࢀ࡚࠸ ࡿࠋࡑࡢ୰࡛ࡶࠊᮏ✏ࡢ⤖ᯝࡣࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋ࡀࠊᴗࢆ୰ᚰࡍࡿᴗ ࡢ㈤㔠㈇ᢸࢆປാ⏕⏘ᛶẚ࡚㐣࡞ࡶࡢࡋࠊࡇࢀࡀ 1990 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࠊ ㈤㔠ୖ᪼ࡢᢚไࡘ࡞ࡀࡗࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࡇࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 2000 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࡣࠊᅋሢୡ௦ࡢᐃᖺ㏥⫋ࡀቑຍࡋࡓࡇࡽࠊ㧗㱋ࡼ ࡿே௳㈝㈇ᢸࡢቑຍࡣࠊ࠸ࡗࡓࢇⴠࡕ╔࠸࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡶࡗࡶࠊඛ⾜ࡁࡣࠊປാ ேཱྀࡀከ࠸ᅋሢࢪࣗࢽୡ௦ࡀ㧗㱋ࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊᴗࡼࡗ࡚ࡣࠊປാ⪅ࡢ㧗 㱋ࡀࡧே௳㈝㈇ᢸࢆᢲࡋୖࡆࡿᒁ㠃ධࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡶ࠶ࡿࠋࡇࢀࢆ㋃ࡲ࠼ࡿ ࠊᴗࡣࠊປാ⏕⏘ᛶࢆ㧗ࡵࡿྲྀࡾ⤌ࡳࡸ࣮࢝ࣈࡢタᐃࡶྵࡵࡓ㈤㔠య⣔ࡢ ぢ┤ࡋࢆ⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡃࡶࠊⱝᖺປാ⪅ࡢ⥅⥆ⓗ࡞㞠⏝࡞ࢆ㏻ࡌ࡚ࠊປാ ⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓᡂࢆ㐺ษࣂࣛࣥࢫࡉࡏ࡚࠸ࡃࡇࡶ㔜せ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ ࠙ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩ࠚ ㉥⩚ு࣭୰ᮧᮁ㸦2008㸧 ࠕᴗูࣃࢿࣝࢹ࣮ࢱࡼࡿ㈤㔠࣭⥆ࣉࣟࣇࣝ ࡢᐇドศᯒࠖ ࠊ ࠗ᪥ᮏປാ◊✲㞧ㄅ࠘ ࠊNo.580ࠊpp.44-60. Ⲉᮌ⚽⾜࣭ୖ⿱࣭᭷㤿ᇶஅ࣭୰㔝㈗ẚ࿅㸦2007㸧 ࠕᴗࡢ㈤㔠Ỵᐃ⾜ືࡢኚ ࡑࡢ⫼ᬒࠖ ࠊ ࠗ᪥ᮏປാ◊✲㞧ㄅ࠘ ࠊNo.560ࠊpp.31-40. ⊦ᮌṊᚨ㸦2001㸧ࠕᴗつᶍࠕṔྐࠖࡽࡳࡓேᮦ⫱ᡂࠖࠊ⊦ᮌṊᚨ࣭㐃ྜ⥲ ྜ⏕ά㛤Ⓨ◊✲ᡤ⦅ⴭࠗ ࠕ㌿⫋ࠖࡢ⤒῭Ꮫ 㐺⫋㑅ᢥேᮦ⫱ᡂ࠘ ࠊ➨ 7 ❶ࠊ ᮾὒ⤒῭᪂ሗ♫. ᕝཱྀྖ࣭⚄ᯘ㱟࣭㔠ᴿឩ࣭ᶒ㉪᪫࣭ΎỈ㇂ㅍ࣭῝ᑿிྖ࣭∾㔝㐩࣭ᶓᒣἨ 㸦2007㸧ࠕᖺຌ㈤㔠ࡣ⏕⏘ᛶ㞳ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ̿ᕤᴗ⤫ィㄪᰝ࣭㈤㔠ᵓ㐀 ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝಶ⚊ࢹ࣮ࢱࡼࡿᐇドศᯒ̿ࠖࠊ ࠗ⤒῭◊✲࠘ࠊVol.58ࠊNo.1ࠊ pp.61-90. 13 ᕝᮏ༟ྖ࣭⠛ᓮබ㸦2009㸧 ࠕ㈤㔠ࡣ࡞ࡐୖࡀࡽ࡞ࡗࡓࡢ㸽̿2002㹼07 ᖺࡢ ᬒẼᣑᮇ࠾ࡅࡿᴗே௳㈝ࡢᢚไせᅉ㛵ࡍࡿ୍⪃ᐹ̿ࠖࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟 ⾜࣮࣡࢟ࣥࢢ࣮࣌ࣃ࣮ࢩ࣮ࣜࢬࠊ No.09-J-5. 㯮⏣⚈Ꮚ࣭ᒣᮏ㸦2006㸧 ࠗࢹࣇࣞୗࡢ㈤㔠ኚື ྡ┠㈤㔠ࡢୗ᪉◳┤ᛶ㔠⼥ ᨻ⟇࠘ ࠊ➨ 8 ❶ࠊᮾிᏛฟ∧. බ┈㈈ᅋἲே᪥ᮏ⏕⏘ᛶᮏ㒊㸦2013㸧 ࠕ➨ 13 ᅇ ᪥ᮏⓗ㞠⏝࣭ேࡢኚᐜ㛵 ࡍࡿㄪᰝࠖ. ྂ㈡㯞⾰Ꮚ࣭すᓮྖ㸦2006㸧 ࠕ≀౯࣭㈤㔠ࣇࣜࢵࣉࢫ᭤⥺ࡢ᥎ィ㸸⢓╔౯᱁࣭ ㈤㔠ࣔࢹࣝࠖ ࠊ ࠗ㔠⼥◊✲࠘ ࠊ➨ 25 ᕳࠊ➨ 3 ྕࠊpp.73-106. ୰㤿ᏹஅ㸦1987㸧 ࠕ ͆᪥ᮏⓗ͇㞠⏝័⾜ࡢ⤒῭ྜ⌮ᛶㄽ᳨ウ̿1920 ᖺ௦ࡢ᪥⡿ ẚ㍑ࡢどⅬࡽ̿ࠖ ࠊ ࠗ⤒῭◊✲࠘ ࠊVol.38ࠊNo.4ࠊ pp.307-320. 㭯ගኴ㑻㸦2005㸧ࠕ᪥ᮏࡣ࣓ࣜ࢝ᆺ㈨ᮏ⩏㏆࡙࠸࡚ࡁࡓ㸽ࠖࠊࠗESP࠘ࠊ No.480ࠊpp.54-57ࠊ⤒῭⏬༠. ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ㄪᰝ⤫ィᒁ㸦2010㸧 ࠕṇ♫ဨࡢᴗ㛫⛣ື㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ㛵ࡍࡿᐇ ⪃ᐹ̿᪥ᮏⓗ㞠⏝័⾜ࡣᔂࢀࡓ㸽̿ࠖ ࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ㄪᰝㄽᩥ. 㔝⏣▱ᙪ࣭㜿㒊ṇᾈ㸦2010㸧 ࠕປാศ㓄⋡, ㈤㔠పୗࠖ ࠊෆ㛶ᗓ⤒῭♫⥲ྜ◊✲ ᡤ⏬࣭┘ಟࠊᵽཱྀ⨾㞝⦅ࠗࣂࣈࣝ/ࢹࣇࣞᮇࡢ᪥ᮏ⤒῭⤒῭ᨻ⟇࠘ ࠊ➨ 6 ᕳࠊ ࠗປാᕷሙᡤᚓศ㓄࠘ ࠊ᠕⩏ሿᏛฟ∧. ℈⛅⣧ဢ࣭ᇼ㞞༤࣭๓⏣బᜨᏊ࣭ᮧ⏣ၨᏊ㸦2011㸧 ࠕపᡂ㛗᪥ᮏⓗ㞠⏝័⾜̿ ᖺຌ㈤㔠⤊㌟㞠⏝ࡢ⿵ᛶࢆᕠࡗ࡚ࠖࠊࠗ᪥ᮏປാ◊✲㞧ㄅ࠘ࠊNo.611ࠊ pp.26-37. ῝ᑿிྖ࣭ᶒ㉪᪫㸦2011㸧 ࠕ᪥ᮏ⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࡢ※Ἠࡣࡇ࠶ࡿࡢ㸸࣑ࢡࣟࢹ࣮ ࢱࡼࡿᐇドศᯒࠖ ࠊRIETI Discussion Paper Seriesࠊ11-J-045. ୕㇂┤⣖㸦1997㸧 ࠗᴗෆ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ປാᕷሙ࠘ ࠊ➨ 1 ❶ࠊວⲡ᭩ᡣ. ̿̿㸦2005㸧 ࠕ90 ᖺ௦ࡢ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ࡢኚேཱྀせᅉࠖ ࠊ ࠗᅜẸ⤒῭㞧ㄅ࠘ ࠊ➨ 191 ᕳࠊ➨ 2 ྕࠊpp.13-27. ᒣ⏣ு࣭ᡞ⏣῟ோ࣭ᮧୖ㈗㸦2009㸧 ࠕ࡞ࡐ㈤㔠ࡣᢚไࡉࢀࡓࡢ㹼๓ᅇᬒẼᅇ ᮇࣂࣈࣝᮇࡢẚ㍑ࢆ୰ᚰ㹼ࠖ ࠊNew ESRI Working Paper SeriesࠊNo.12. ຬୖྐ࣭᳃ᮏᩔᚿ㸦2006㸧 ࠕᴗࡢࠕṔྐࠖࡣ㈤㔠ࡢỴᐃせᅉ㸽㸸ᴗ㸫ປ ാ ⪅ ࣐ ࢵ ࢳ ࣥ ࢢ ࢹ ࣮ ࢱ ࡼ ࡿ ᳨ ド ࠖࠊ ⚄ ᡞ Ꮫ Ꮫ 㝔 ⤒ ῭ Ꮫ ◊ ✲ ⛉ Discussion PaperࠊNo.1122. 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Stoeldraijer (2010) “Age, Wage and Productivity,” CEPR Discussion Paper, No.7713. 15 㸦ᅗ⾲㸯㸧ᚋᡶ࠸㈤㔠௬ㄝ :9 : 㸦㈤㔠㸧 ㈤ 㔠 劣 9 㸦⏕⏘ᛶ㸧 ⏕ ⏘ ᛶ :9 :!9 WW W!W W ᖺ㱋㸦⥆ᖺᩘ㸧 ࠉ㸦㈨ᩱ㸧/D]HDU W 7 㸦ᐃᖺ㏥⫋㸧 㸦ᅗ⾲㸰㸧㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ 㸦ṓ㸻㸧 ᖺ ᖺ ᖺ ᖺ ᖺ ṓ ࠉ㸦ὀ㸧⏨ᛶࠊᏛ࣭Ꮫ㝔༞㸦ᖺࡲ࡛ࡣᪧ࣭᪂༞㸧ࠊᚑᴗဨつᶍே௨ୖࡢ ࠉࠉࠉࠉᡤᐃෆ⤥㢠ࠋᖺࡢṓ௦ࠊṓ௦ࡣࠊṓ้ࡳࡢ್ࠋ ࠉ㸦㈨ᩱ㸧ཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ 㸦 㸦ᅗ⾲㸱㸧㈤㔠ኚ⋡ 㸧㈤㔠ኚ 㸦ᖺ⋡ࠊኚ⋡ࠊ㸣㸧 Ѝᖺ Ѝᖺ Ѝᖺ Ѝᖺ ṓ ࠉ㸦ὀ㸧ᅗ⾲ྠᵝࠋ ࠉ㸦㈨ᩱ㸧ཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ 㸦ᅗ⾲㸲㸧ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ㈤㔠 㸦ᖺᗘ 㸧 ㈤㔠㸦୍ே࠶ࡓࡾே௳㈝㸧 ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ㸦୍ே࠶ࡓࡾຍ౯್㢠㸧 ᖺᗘ ࠉ㸦ὀ㸧㈤㔠ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡣྡ┠࣮࣋ࢫࠋᴗࡣࠊ⏘ᴗ࣭つᶍࠋ ࠉ㸦㈨ᩱ㸧㈈ົ┬ࠕἲேᴗ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ 㸦 㸦ᅗ⾲㸳㸧ປാ⪅ࡢ㧗㱋 㸧 ാ⪅ 㧗㱋 㸦㸯㸧୍⯡ປാ⪅ࡢᖹᆒᖺ㱋 㸦ṓ㸧 㸦㸰㸧㞠⏝⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᵓᡂ 㸦㸣㸧 ᅋሢୡ௦ ᖺ ᖺ ᖺ ᖺ ᖺ ᖺ ṓ ࠉ㸦㈨ᩱ㸧ཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖࠊ⥲ົ┬ࠕປാຊㄪᰝࠖ 㸦ᅗ⾲㸴㸧ᖺ㱋㝵ᒙูࡢே௳㈝㈇ᢸ 㸦ᖺ㸻㸧 య ṓ ṓ ṓ ṓ ṓ ᖺ ࠉ㸦ὀ㸧ே௳㈝㸻୍ே࠶ࡓࡾ⌧㔠⤥⥲㢠㞠⏝⪅ᩘࠋ ࠉ㸦㈨ᩱ㸧ཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖࠊ⥲ົ┬ࠕປാຊㄪᰝࠖ 㸦 㸦ᅗ⾲㸵㸧୍⯡ປാ⪅ࡢ㈤㔠 㸧 ാ⪅ ㈤㔠 㸦๓ᖺẚࠊ㸣㸧 ᡤᐃෆ⤥ ⌧㔠⤥ ᖺ ࠉ㸦㈨ᩱ㸧ཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖ 㸦ᅗ⾲㸶㸧㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈࡢᅜ㝿ẚ㍑ 㸦㸯㸧⡿ᅜ 㸦㸰㸧ⱥᅜ࣭Ḣᕞ 㸦ṓ㸻㸧 㸦ṓ㸻㸧 ᪥ᮏ (8ᅜᖹᆒ ᪥ᮏ ⱥᅜ ⡿ᅜ ࢻࢶ ṓ ṓ ࠉ㸦ὀ㸧᪥⡿ࡣ༞௨ୖࡢ⏨ᛶࠊࡑࡢࡣᏛṔィࡢ⏨ᛶࠋ ࠉࠉࠉࠉᕥᅗࡣ㹼ᖺᖹᆒࠊྑᅗࡣࠊࠊᖺᖹᆒࠋ ࠉ㸦㈨ᩱ㸧ཌ⏕ປാ┬ࠕ㈤㔠ᵓ㐀ᇶᮏ⤫ィㄪᰝࠖࠊ86&HQVXV%XUHDXࠊ(XURVWDW 㸦ᅗ⾲㸷㸧⡿ᅜࡢୡ௦ู࣭㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ 㸦ṓ㸻㸧 ᖺ⏕ࡲࢀ ᖺ⏕ࡲࢀ ᖺ⏕ࡲࢀ ᖺ⏕ࡲࢀ ṓ ࠉ㸦ὀ㸧ⓑே࣭㧗༞࣭⏨ᛶࡢᖺ㱋㝵ᒙูᖹᆒ್ࢆ&3,⥲ྜ࡛ᐇ㉁ࠋ 㸦ὀ㸧ⓑே࣭㧗༞࣭⏨ᛶࡢᖺ㱋㝵ᒙูᖹᆒ್ࢆ&3,⥲ྜ࡛ᐇ㉁ ࠉ㸦㈨ᩱ㸧&HQVXVGDWD,380686$ 6WHYHQ5XJJOHV-7UHQW$OH[DQGHU.DWLH*HQDGHN5RQDOG*RHNHQ0DWWKHZ% 6FKURHGHUDQG0DWWKHZ6REHN,QWHJUDWHG3XEOLF8VH0LFURGDWD6HULHV9HUVLRQ >0DFKLQHUHDGDEOHGDWDEDVH@0LQQHDSROLV8QLYHUVLW\RI0LQQHVRWD 㸦ᅗ⾲㸯㸮㸧グ㏙⤫ィ㔞 ⏘ᴗ つᶍ ᖹᆒ ᶆ‽ ೫ᕪ 〇㐀ᴗ ᴗ ᖹᆒ 㠀〇㐀ᴗ ୰ሀ୰ᑠᴗ ᶆ‽ ೫ᕪ ᴗ ᖹᆒ ᶆ‽ ೫ᕪ ᖹᆒ ୰ሀ୰ᑠᴗ ᶆ‽ ೫ᕪ ᶆ‽ ೫ᕪ ᖹᆒ ຍ౯್㢠 㸦ᑐᩘ㸧 7.15 1.35 10.01 1.29 6.88 1.00 9.49 1.41 6.88 1.03 ⤥⥲㢠 㸦ᑐᩘ㸧 6.83 1.23 9.51 1.20 6.58 0.90 9.10 1.22 6.57 0.89 ㈨ᮏࢫࢺࢵࢡ 㸦ᑐᩘ㸧 7.10 1.85 10.07 1.65 6.95 1.32 9.13 2.52 6.68 1.88 78.04 225.24 492.90 611.04 35.42 38.16 486.11 543.37 33.87 38.33 ປാᢞධ㛫 㸦༓㛫㸧 タ❧ᖺ௦ࢲ࣑࣮ ࠉᖺ௦ 0.18 0.17 0.19 0.17 0.17 ࠉᖺ௦ 0.22 0.10 0.23 0.19 0.21 ࠉᖺ௦ 0.19 0.11 0.18 0.21 0.20 ࠉᖺ௦ 0.14 0.07 0.13 0.15 0.16 ࠉᖺ௦௨㝆 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.10 ⏘ᴗ つᶍ ᶆ‽ ᖹᆒ ೫ᕪ 〇㐀ᴗ ᴗ ᶆ‽ ᖹᆒ ೫ᕪ 㠀〇㐀ᴗ ୰ሀ୰ᑠᴗ ᶆ‽ ᖹᆒ ೫ᕪ ᴗ ᶆ‽ ᖹᆒ ೫ᕪ ୰ሀ୰ᑠᴗ ᶆ‽ ᖹᆒ ೫ᕪ 㛫࠶ࡓࡾᡤᐃෆ⤥ 㸦ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ㸧 -0.008 0.216 -0.003 0.250 -0.010 0.203 -0.012 0.238 -0.005 0.203 㛫࠶ࡓࡾᐃᮇ⤥ 㸦ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ㸧 -0.006 0.206 -0.001 0.238 -0.009 0.192 -0.008 0.222 -0.006 0.197 ≉ู⤥ 㸦ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ㸧 -0.040 0.408 -0.028 0.376 -0.055 0.438 -0.050 0.358 -0.020 0.402 ㈤㔠࣭⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㞳 0.034 0.691 0.282 1.656 0.003 0.009 0.032 1.497 0.032 0.623 ⤒ᖖ┈ 㸦ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ㸧 0.067 0.776 0.109 0.643 0.094 0.924 0.063 0.573 0.011 0.724 ኻᴗ⋡ 㸦๓ᖺᕪࠊ㸣S㸧 0.001 0.564 &3,㝖ࡃ⏕㩭 㸦๓ᖺẚࠊ㸣㸧 -0.345 0.529 ᛶูࢲ࣑࣮ 0.266 0.204 0.257 0.278 0.289 ࠉ㧗༞ 0.490 0.362 0.602 0.244 0.397 ࠉ▷࣭ᑓ㛛Ꮫᰯ 0.135 0.107 0.100 0.146 0.187 ࠉᏛ࣭Ꮫ㝔 0.327 0.503 0.225 0.601 0.391 ᏛṔࢲ࣑࣮ 㸦ᅗ⾲㸯㸯㸧᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝ 㸦㸯㸧⏕⏘㛵ᩘ ⏘ᴗ つᶍ ȕ *** 0.762 (0.004) Į1 *** -8.850 -0.108 0.491 (0.005) ** -48.029 -0.693 *** (0.579) *** -0.176 (0.008) 2.565 (0.032) -3.352 *** 0.600 0.546 *** -11.773 -7.166 -0.532 0.206 0.051 *** (0.007) *** 0.370 0.261 *** (0.023) *** -0.494 -0.362 (0.055) (1.364) (0.042) (0.105) (0.031) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No No Adj-R2 0.955 0.988 0.975 0.972 0.955 N 22,847 1,028 11,744 1,149 8,926 ᖺࢲ࣑࣮ タ❧ᖺ௦ࢲ࣑࣮ ⏘ᴗࢲ࣑࣮ ᴗつᶍࢲ࣑࣮ *** (0.407) *** (0.079) *** *** (0.007) (0.028) *** 0.398 ** ୰ሀ୰ᑠᴗ (1.533) *** -0.123 ** ᴗ (0.017) -7.570 (1.052) *** *** 0.737 (0.049) *** (0.040) Į4 *** 0.852 㠀〇㐀ᴗ ୰ሀ୰ᑠᴗ (20.044) *** (0.007) Į3 ᴗ (0.014) (0.672) Į2 〇㐀ᴗ *** 㸦㸰㸧㈤㔠㛵ᩘ ⏘ᴗ つᶍ Ȗ0 5.907 *** (0.017) Ȗ1 -17 376 -17.376 0.183 *** 0.574 -0.724 *** -25 383 -25.383 0.144 0.939 *** -1.092 ୰ሀ୰ᑠᴗ 4.802 *** -9 539 -9.539 0.013 *** 0.338 -0.452 *** -31 400 -31.400 0.347 1.168 *** -1.463 5.180 -9 184 -9.184 0.213 *** *** (0.011) *** 0.144 *** (0.023) (0 023) *** -0.191 (0.048) (0.304) (0.029) (0.367) (0.029) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No No Adj-R2 0.475 0.086 0.100 0.050 0.104 N 22,847 1,028 11,744 1,149 8,926 ᖺࢲ࣑࣮ タ❧ᖺ௦ࢲ࣑࣮ ⏘ᴗࢲ࣑࣮ ᴗつᶍࢲ࣑࣮ *** (0.435) *** (0.292) (0 292) *** ୰ሀ୰ᑠᴗ (0.029) (0.050) *** (0.022) (0 022) *** 7.094 (5.889) ** (0.006) *** ᴗ (0.130) (0.405) *** (0.261) (0 261) *** 㠀〇㐀ᴗ (0.027) (0.029) *** (0 038) (0.038) Ȗ4 7.219 (5.559) *** (0.009) Ȗ3 ᴗ (0.152) (0.750) Ȗ2 〇㐀ᴗ ࠉ㸦ὀ㸧ࡣ᭷ពỈ‽㸣ࠊࡣ᭷ពỈ‽㸣ࠊࡣ᭷ពỈ‽㸣࡛᭷ព࡛࠶ࡿࡇࢆ♧ࡍࠋ ࠉࠉࠉࠉ㸦㸧ෆࡣࠊᶆ‽೫ᕪࠋ *** 㸦ᅗ⾲㸯㸰㸧㈤㔠࣭⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡢ㞳 㸦㸯㸧〇㐀ᴗ࣭ᴗ ㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈD ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈE ṓ 㞳DE ṓ 㸦㸰㸧〇㐀ᴗ࣭୰ሀ୰ᑠᴗ ṓ ṓ 㸦㸱㸧㠀〇㐀ᴗ࣭ᴗ ṓ ṓ 㸦㸲㸧㠀〇㐀ᴗ࣭୰ሀ୰ᑠᴗ ṓ ṓ ࠉ㸦ὀ㸧㈤㔠࣮࢝ࣈ⏕⏘ᛶ࣮࢝ࣈࡣࠊ㹼ṓࡢ㈤㔠ࢆᇶ‽ࡋࠊ⏕ᾭࡢຍ౯್⥲㢠 ࠉࠉࠉࠉ㈤㔠⥲㢠ࡀ➼ࡋࡃ࡞ࡿࡼ࠺Ỉ‽ࢆㄪᩚࡋ࡚⾲♧ࠋ 㸦ᅗ⾲㸯㸱㸧᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝ ᴗつᶍ ⿕ㄝ᫂ኚᩘ ᐃᩘ㡯 ⤒ᖖ┈࣭ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ つᶍ ᴗ ୰ሀ୰ᑠᴗ つᶍ つᶍ 㛫䛒䛯䜚 ᡤᐃෆ⤥ 䠄ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ䠅 㛫䛒䛯䜚 ᡤᐃෆ⤥ 䠄ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ䠅 㛫䛒䛯䜚 ᡤᐃෆ⤥ 䠄ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ䠅 㛫䛒䛯䜚 ᐃᮇ⤥ 䠄ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ䠅 ≉ู⤥ 䠄ᑐᩘ㝵ᕪ䠅 0.007 0.025 -0.001 0.007 -0.139 (0.013) (0.040) (0.014) (0.013) (0.026) 0.002 0.004 (0.002) (0.002) 0.004 ** (0.002) ㈤㔠࣭⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㞳㸦ᮇ๓㸧 -0.004 0.015 *** (0.005) *** (0.001) -0.003 * -0.006 (0.002) (0.003) 0.000 0.015 (0.013) (0.006) -0.011 -0.007 (0.009) (0.004) 0.000 0.008 (0.004) (0.009) ᏛṔࢲ࣑࣮ Yes ᖺࢲ࣑࣮ &3,㝖ࡃ⏕㩭࣭๓ᖺẚ㸦ᮇ๓㸧 0.011 ** (0.005) ኻᴗ⋡㸦๓ᖺᕪ㸧 -0.009 * (0.004) ᛶูࢲ࣑࣮ Adj-R N 2 * -0.003 ** 0.010 *** -0.008 0.004 (0.003) * (0.005) * 0.051 (0.011) ** -0.008 (0.004) (0.008) 0.005 -0.008 (0.004) (0.004) (0.008) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 0.005 0.009 0.005 0.004 0.030 22,136 7,092 15,044 22,137 20,731 0.007 * * *** (0.004) (0.001) ** 0.028 *** 㸦ὀ㸧ࡣ᭷ពỈ‽㸣ࠊࡣ᭷ពỈ‽㸣ࠊࡣ᭷ពỈ‽㸣࡛᭷ព࡛࠶ࡿࡇࢆ♧ࡍࠋ ᭷ ᭷ ᭷ ᭷ ࠉࠉ㸦㸧ෆࡣࠊᶆ‽೫ᕪࠋ ***
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