日心第77回大会
（2013）
12. 言語,思考　3PM-088
ᅉᯝᖐ⣡࡟࠾ࡅࡿ୙⏕㉳஦㇟ࡢ㔜ࡳ࡙ࡅ
‫ۑ‬᭹㒊㑳Ꮚ ࣭᭹㒊㞞ྐ ࣭㧗ᶫ㐩஧ 㸦 ❧࿨㤋኱Ꮫ࣭ ᮾி㟁ᶵ኱Ꮫ㸧
࣮࣮࢟࣡ࢻ㸸ඹኚ᝟ሗ㸪Ǽ3 ࣔࢹࣝ㸪ᅉᯝ᥎ㄽ
The impact of non-occurrent events in causal induction
Ikuko HATTORI1, Masasi HATTORI1 and Tatsuji TAKAHASHI2
(1Ritsumeikan Univ., 2Tokyo Denki Univ.)
Key Words: Covariation, Delta P model, Causal inference
┠ ⓗ
ᅉᯝ᥎ㄽࡣほᐹࡉࢀࡓ஦㇟㛫ࡢඹኚ᝟ሗࢆ཯ᫎࡍࡿ㸬ேࡀ
ඹኚ᝟ሗ࠿ࡽ࡝ࡢࡼ࠺࡟ᅉᯝᙉᗘ㸦஦㇟㛫ࡢᅉᯝⓗ㛵㐃ᛶࡢ
ᙉࡉ㸧ࢆุ᩿ࡍࡿࡢ࠿࡟㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣ㸪'P ࣔࢹࣝ (Jenkins & Ward,
1965)ࢆࡣࡌࡵ࡜ࡋ࡚ᩘከࡢࣔࢹࣝࡸ⌮ㄽࡀᥦ᱌ࡉࢀ࡚ࡁࡓ㸬
ࡋ࠿ࡋ㸪ྛࠎࡢ᳨ドᐇ㦂࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢࣔࢹࣝࢆᨭᣢࡍ
ࡿ⤖ᯝࡀฟ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪࠶ࡿព࿡▩┪ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ࡜࠸࠼ࡿ㸬
࠶ࡿ஦㇟㸦⤖ᯝ㸧࡜ࡑࢀࢆᘬࡁ㉳ࡇࡋࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ஦㇟
㸦ཎᅉ㸧࡜ࡢ⏕㉳㛵ಀࢆศ๭⾲࡟ࡍࡿ࡜㸪ཎᅉ࠶ࡾ࣭⤖ᯝ࠶
ࡾ(a)㸪ཎᅉ࠶ࡾ࣭⤖ᯝ࡞ࡋ(b)㸪ཎᅉ࡞ࡋ࣭⤖ᯝ࠶ࡾ(c)㸪ཎᅉ
࡞ࡋ࣭⤖ᯝ࡞ࡋ(d)ࡢᅄࡘࡢࢭࣝࢆ⏝࠸࡚♧ࡍࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬
ࡇࢀࡲ࡛࡟ከࡃࡢ◊✲ࡀ㸪ࡇࢀࡽࡢࢭࣝࡢᅉᯝุ᩿࡟࠾ࡅࡿ
ᙳ㡪ຊ࡟ᕪࡀ࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆሗ࿌ࡋ࡚ࡁࡓ(e.g., Anderson & Sheu,
1995)㸬ཎᅉࡶ⤖ᯝࡶ⏕ࡌ࡚࠸ࡿ஦౛(a)ࡣᙳ㡪ຊࡀ᭱ࡶ㧗ࡃ㸪
࡝ࡕࡽࡶ⏕ࡌ࡚࠸࡞࠸஦౛(d)ࡣ᭱ࡶప࠸㸬d ࢭࣝࡢ᝟ሗࡣࡋ
ࡤࡋࡤ᏶඲࡟↓どࡉࢀࡿࡇ࡜ࡉ࠼࠶ࡿ㸬
ྛ⌮ㄽࡢ୺ᙇࡣᵝࠎ࡞Ⅼ࡛ᑐ❧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡀ㸪࡝ࡢ⌮ㄽ࡟ࡶ
ඹ㏻ࡍࡿⅬࡀ'P ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ᑐࡍࡿᢈุ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬'P ࢆࡣࡌࡵ࡜
ࡍࡿつ⠊ⓗᣦᶆ࡛ࡣ㸪ேࡢඹኚ᝟ሗࡢฎ⌮࡟࠾࠸࡚ d ࢭࣝࡢ
᝟ሗࡀ⪃៖ࡉࢀࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡿ㸬౛࠼ࡤ㸪'P ࣔࢹ࡛ࣝࡣḟࡢᘧࡢ
ࡼ࠺࡟ 4 ࡘࡢࢭࣝࡢ㢖ᗘ᝟ሗࢆࡍ࡭࡚⪃៖ࡍࡿ㸬
'P
P ( E | C ) P ( E | ™C )
a
c
ab cd
୍᪉㸪グ㏙ⓗ࡞ࣔࢹ࡛ࣝࡣ㸪d ࢭࣝࡢ㔜ࡳࢆࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ࡛ㄪ
ᩚࡍࡿ㸪࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ d ࢭࣝࢆ඲ࡃ⪃៖ࡋ࡞࠸ࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡗ࡚㸪ண
ࢆࡼࡾேࡢ᣺ࡿ⯙࠸࡟㏆࡙ࡅࡼ࠺࡜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬
ࡇࢀࡲ࡛࡟ሗ࿌ࡉࢀࡓᩘከࡃࡢᐇ㦂ࡀࡑࢀࡒࢀ␗࡞ࡗࡓ⌮
ㄽࢆᨭᣢࡍࡿ࡜࠸࠺▩┪ࡋࡓ≧ἣࢆ⏕ࢇ࡛࠸ࡿ⌮⏤ࡢࡦ࡜ࡘ
ࡣ㸪ᐇ㦂ࡢㄢ㢟ᵓ㐀࡟࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ㸪'P ࣔ
ࢹࣝࡀグ㏙ຊࢆቑࡍㄢ㢟タᐃࢆ᫂☜࡟ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡗ࡚㸪ᅉ
ᯝᖐ⣡࡟࠾ࡅࡿ୙⏕㉳஦㇟ࡢᙳ㡪࡟ࡘ࠸᳨࡚ウࡍࡿ㸬ㄢ㢟タ
ᐃࡢ㐪࠸࡟ࡼࡗ࡚㸪d ࢭࣝࡀ↓どࡉࢀࡸࡍ࠸ሙྜ࡜ࡑ࠺࡛࡞
࠸ሙྜࡀ࠶ࡿࡢ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸࠿࡜⪃࠼㸪㢖ᗘ᝟ሗࡢᏛ⩦᫬࡟࠾࠸
࡚௓ධࡀྍ⬟࡞ሙྜ࡜ࡑ࠺࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ሙྜ㸪ཎᅉ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ
஦㇟ࡀ௚ࡢ஦㇟࡜ྍ᥮࡛࠶ࡿሙྜ࡜ྍ᥮࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ሙྜࢆタᐃ
ࡋ㸪ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࢆẚ㍑ࡋࡓ㸬⤖ᯝ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ㸪௓ධࡣほᐹࡼࡾ
ࡶ㸪ྍ᥮ཎᅉࡣྍ᥮࡛࡞࠸ཎᅉࡼࡾࡶ㸪d ࢭࣝ࡟ᑐࡍࡿ⪃៖
ࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡾ㸪'P ࡢࣇ࢕ࢵࢺࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿ࡜ண ࡋࡓ㸬
᪉ ἲ
ཧຍ⪅࡜ࢹࢨ࢖ࣥ
኱Ꮫ⏕ 75 ྡࡀ௵ព࡛ཧຍࡋࡓ㸬࠺ࡕ 7 ྡศࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࡣ࣮ࣚ
࢟ࣥࢢ㸦ᚋ㏙㸧ࡢ࣌࢔ࡀ࡞࠸ࡓࡵ௒ᅇࡢศᯒ࠿ࡽ㝖እࡋࡓ㸬
ほᐹ᪉ἲ࡟ࡼࡿせᅉ࡜ࡋ࡚௓ධ᮲௳(IV)࡜ほᐹ᮲௳(OB)ࡢ 2
᮲௳㸦ཧຍ⪅㛫せᅉ㸧㸪ཎᅉ஦㇟ࡢᛶ㉁࡟ࡼࡿせᅉ࡜ࡋ࡚ྍ᥮
ᛶࡢཎᅉ(XC)࡜㠀ྍ᥮ᛶ㸦ᅗᆅ㛵ಀ㸧ࡢཎᅉ(FG)ࡢ 2 ᮲௳㸦ཧ
ຍ⪅㛫せᅉ㸧ࢆ⏝ពࡋ㸪ཧຍ⪅ࢆ↓సⅭ࡟๭ࡾᙜ࡚ࡓ㸬
ㄢ㢟࡜ᡭ⥆ࡁ
ᯫ✵ࡢရ✀ࡢࢽ࣡ࢺࣜࡢ㣫⫱ࢆほᐹࡋ㸪࢚ࢧ㸦XC ᮲௳㸸A
♫࠿ B ♫࠿(=not A))ࡲࡓࡣࢧࣉ࣓ࣜࣥࢺ㸦FG ᮲௳㸸ࡸࡿ࠿ࡸ
ࡽ࡞࠸࠿㸧࡜࠸࠺ཎᅉ஦㇟ࡀ⏘༸࡜࠸࠺⤖ᯝ஦㇟ࡢ⏕㉳࡟࡝
ࡢ⛬ᗘຠຊࢆᣢࡘ࠿ࢆุ᩿ࡍࡿ࡜࠸࠺ㄢ㢟ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ㸬ㄢ㢟࡟
ࡣᏛ⩦ẁ㝵࡜ุ᩿ẁ㝵ࡢ஧ࡘࡢẁ㝵ࡀ࠶ࡗࡓ㸬Ꮫ⩦ẁ㝵࡛ࡣ㸪
⏕㉳ࡍࡿཎᅉ஦㇟ࢆ㑅ᢥࡋ࡚ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࢆほᐹ࡛ࡁࡿ௓ධ᮲௳
(IV)࡜㸪஦㇟ࡢ⏕㉳ࢆࡓࡔほᐹࡍࡿほᐹ᮲௳(OB)ࡀ⏝ពࡉࢀ㸪
ཧຍ⪅ࡣ࡝ࡕࡽ࠿ࡢ᮲௳่࡛⃭ࡢほᐹࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬௓ධ᮲௳࡜
ほᐹ᮲௳ࡢཧຍ⪅ࡣ୍ᑐ୍ᑐᛂ࡛࣌࢔࡟ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ほᐹ᮲௳ࡢ
ཧຍ⪅ࡣ㸪⮬ศࡢ࣌࢔ࡢ௓ධ᮲௳ࡢཧຍ⪅ࡀయ㦂ࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡜
᏶඲࡟ྠ୍ࡢ่⃭ࢆ༢࡟ほᐹࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࡢᡭ⥆ࡁࢆ࣮ࣚ࢟ࣥࢢ
࡜࠸࠺㸬
඲ཧຍ⪅ࡣᏛ⩦ẁ㝵࡜ุ᩿ẁ㝵ࢆ㸯ࢭࢵࢩࣙࣥ࡜ࡍࡿᅄࡘ
ࡢࢭࢵࢩࣙࣥࢆཷࡅࡓ㸬ࢱ࣮ࢤࢵࢺࡢཎᅉࡀ㉳ࡁ࡚࠸ࡿ࡜ࡁ
࡟⤖ᯝࡀ㉳ࡁࡓ☜⋡ P(E|C)࡜㸪ཎᅉࡀ㉳ࡁ࡚࠸࡞࠸࡜ࡁ࡟⤖
ᯝࡀ⏕ࡌࡓ☜⋡ P(E|not-C)࡜ࡋ࡚㸪{P(E|C),P(E|not-C)} =
{0.3,0.3}, {0.6,0.2}, {0.7,0.7}, {0.8,0.4}ࡢ 4 ㏻ࡾࢆ⏝ពࡋ㸪ཧຍ
⪅ࡣࡇࢀࡽࡢ⏕㉳☜⋡࡛⏕ࡌࡓ஦㇟ࢆᅄࡘࡢࢭࢵࢩ࡛ࣙࣥほ
ᐹࡋࡓ㸦㡰ᗎࡣཧຍ⪅㛫࡛࢝࢘ࣥࢱ࣮ࣂࣛࣥࢫ㸧㸬
⤖ ᯝ ࡜ ⪃ ᐹ
௓ධ᮲௳࡛ࡣほᐹ᮲௳ࡼࡾࡶ㸪ࡲࡓྍ᥮ᛶཎᅉࡢሙྜࡢ᪉
ࡀᅗᆅ㛵ಀཎᅉࡢሙྜࡼࡾࡶ㸪'P ࡢࣇ࢕ࢵࢺࡀ㧗࠸㸪࡜࠸࠺
⤖ᯝࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ (XC-VI: r = .74, FG-VI:r = .71, XC-OB: r =.68,
FG-OB: r =.47)㸬ࡇࡢ⤖ᯝ࠿ࡽ㸪ྠ୍ࡢ㢖ᗘ᝟ሗ࡛࠶ࡗ࡚ࡶ㸪
௓ධࡸྍ᥮ཎᅉ࡜࠸ࡗࡓㄢ㢟タᐃࡢ㐪࠸࡟ࡼࡗุ࡚᩿࡟㐪࠸
ࡀ⏕ࡌࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ♧ࡉࢀࡓ㸬஦㇟ࡢᛶ㉁ࡸࡑࢀࢆほᐹࡍࡿ㝿ࡢ
᮲௳࡜࠸ࡗࡓㄢ㢟ᵓ㐀ࡢ㐪࠸ࡣ㢖ᗘ᝟ሗࡢฎ⌮࡟ᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼㸪
ࡼࡾ⇍⪃ⓗ࣭ศᯒⓗ࡞ほⅬ࡟ࡼࡿฎ⌮ࢆྍ⬟࡟ࡍࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽ
ࢀࡿ㸬ࡑࡢࡓࡵ㸪㏻ᖖ↓どࡉࢀࡸࡍ࠸ d ࢭࣝࡢ᝟ሗࢆ⪃៖ࡋ
ࡓุ᩿ࡢ๭ྜࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡗࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
ᘬ⏝ᩥ⊩
Jenkins, H. M., & Ward, W. C. (1965). Judgment of contingency between
responses and outcomes. Psychological Monographs: General and
Applied, 79, 1-17. (Whole No. 594)
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