Early Warning System in Japan and Lessons learnt from recent TC

JMA/WMO Workshop on Effective Tropical Cyclone Warning in Southeast Asia
Tokyo, JAPAN, 11-14 March 2014
Early Warning System in Japan
and
Lessons learnt from recent TC Disasters
14 March 2014
Yosuke IGARASHI
Japan Meteorological Agency
1
JMA's Operational Service
Observations
Analysis and Forecast
Space Based
Observation
Numerical Weather
Prediction
Collection and
Dissemination of
Met. Data
Local Met. Observatories
Ocean
Observation
Information Issuance
Data Collection
Surface
Observation
Warnings, Advisories
Computer System for Met. Service
Upper Air
Observation
Radar
Observation
Products
Typhoon Forecast
Weather Forecast
One Week Forecast
International
Data
Exchange
Seasonal Forecast
Data/Products
Other NMHSs
Aeronautical Met.
Information
Marine Met.
Information
2
Dissemination of Warnings
JMA disseminates warnings and information via various channels in
order to reach people surely and quickly.
Prefectural Governments
(LocalMeteorologicalObservatories)
Issuanceof disasterprevention
information,such as:
-Weather Warning/ Advisory
-TyphoonInfo.
-Earthquake EarlyWarning/ Info.
-TsunamiWarning/ Advisory/ Info.
-VolcanicWarning/ Info.
-Aviation/ MarineWeather Info.
-VolcanicAsh Advisory
National PoliceAgency
FireandDisaster
Management Agency
NTT(Nippon Telegraph and
Telephone Corporation)
MLIT(Water and Disaster
Management Bureau)
The Public
PublicAgenciesetc.
Disaster Prevention
Activities
JMAWebsite, etc.
Cellular carrier
JapanMeteorological
BusinessSupport
Center
Japan Meteorological Agency
Municipality
Governments
NHK
(Japan Broadcasting Corporation)
Media Organizations
Public Weather Services
Service Users
Japan CoastGuard
MarineVessels
MLIT(Civil Aviation Bureau)
Airplanes 3
Recent Heavy Rain, Flood and Storms in Japan
Damages caused by heavy rain, flood and storms
Source: "Shobo Hakusho 2013" (white paper on fire and disaster management)
(Number of houses)
(Number of dead or missing)
Dead or missing
Houses destroyed completely or partially
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 (Year)
2004: 10 typhoons struck Japan!
2011: Heavy rain caused by typhoon Talas
4
10 Typhoons struck Japan from June to October 2004
500km
T0404
(landed on Japan around
16:00JST, Jun 11)
T0406
(landed on Japan around
09:30JST, Jun 21)
T0410
(landed on Japan around
16:00JST, Jul 31)
T0411
(landed on Japan around
22:30JST, Aug 4)
T0415
(landed on Japan around
06:00JST, Aug 20)
T0416
(landed on Japan around
10:00JST, Aug 30)
T0418
(landed on Japan around
09:30JST, Sep 7)
T0421
(landed on Japan around
08:30JST, Sep 29)
T0422
(landed on Japan around
16:00JST, Oct 9)
T0423
(landed on Japan around
13:00JST, Oct 20)
5
“Guidelines for Producing a Decision and Dissemination Manual for
Evacuation Advisories and Orders” (Cabinet Office, 2005)
During the disasters in 2004, mayors did not issue the evacuation advisory
/ order for appropriate hazardous areas in a timely manner.
Background:
Mayors can not make decision because they have not pre-determined
specific criteria for evacuation advisory / order.
Not determined: 15.6%
Specific criteria is pre-determined: 7.1%
Criteria is pre-determined: 84.4%
Not determined: 92.9%
Source: Cabinet Office, 2004
Municipalities should determine specific criteria.
6
Improvement of Warning
Warning
Municipalities
Evacuation
Order
Warning
JMA
Residents
Warning
In order that JMA's warnings help mayors' decision...
1. Warnings should be issued to city / town / village
respectively.
2. Warning criteria should be consistent with the criteria for
evacuation advisory and order.
7
Warning for Cities, Towns and Villages
Warnings used to be issued by zones that include several cities,
towns and villages together in the same group (375 zones in
Japan).
23区
東部
多摩西部
多摩北部
23 区西部
多摩南部
warning
advisory
no warning / advisory
20km
Tokyo
JMA divided warning zones into city, town and village basis in
2008 (more than 1,700 zones in Japan).
奥多摩町
足立区
葛飾区
練馬区
西東京市
渋谷区
府中市
狛江市
多摩市
稲城市
世田谷区
目黒区
調布市
台東区
千代田区
中央区
杉並区
三鷹市
文京区
新宿区
港区
国立市
日野市
武蔵野市
江東区
江戸川区
小平市
国分寺市小金井市
墨田区
荒川区
豊島区
立川市
昭島市
八王子市
東村山市
中野区
あきる野市
福生市
檜原村
武蔵
村山市
東大和市
羽村市
板橋区
清瀬市
瑞穂町
北区
青梅市
品川区
町田市
大田区
8
Improvement of the Criteria for Flood Forecast
Criteria recommended in the Guideline
Mayor's
Decision
Flood Forecast with Level
Criteria
Water Level Setting
 Water level of the river
Evacuation
has reached "Flood
Order
Danger Level."
 Embankment is broken.
Flood Danger Level
Flood Alert Level
 Water level of the river is
expected to reach "Flood
Evacuation
Danger Level" in certain
Advisory
hours*.
Flood Watch Level
Standby Level
*: Necessary time for people to
evacuate
Flood Forecast Title
 Water level of the river is
expected to reach "Flood
Evacuation
Danger Level" in certain
Preparation
hours*.
Information
*: Necessary time for people who
require assistance to evacuate
Water Level
Lv5: Flood Occurrence Info. (Flood occur)
Lv4: Flood Danger Info.
Flood Danger Level
Lv3: Flood Alerting Info.
Flood Alert Level
Lv2: Flood Advisory Info.
Flood Watch Level
-
Standby Level
9
Improvement of the Criteria for Storm Surge Warning
Criteria recommended in the Guideline
Mayor's
Decision
Evacuation
Order
Criteria
 Sea level has reached "Storm
Surge Danger Level."
 Tidal embankment is broken.
 Sea level is expected to reach
"Storm Surge Danger Level" in
certain hours*.
Evacuation
*: Necessary time for people to evacuate,
Advisory
however, storm will be also expected as the
tyhoon approaching, mayors should consider
the advisory when it meets the criteria for
preparation information.
JMA set the criteria for storm
surge warning consistent with
"Storm Surge Danger Level."
1. If the municipality already set the
"Storm Surge Danger Level", JMA
set the level as the warning criterion
for the city, town or village.
2. If the municipality is NOT set the
"Storm Surge Danger Level", JMA set
the warning criterion based on the
survey (e.g. design high tide level for
embankment, lowest altitude of the
wharf).
 Sea level is expected to reach
Evacuation
"Storm Surge Danger Level" in
Preparation
certain hours*.
Information
*: Necessary time for people who require
assistance to evacuate
10
Improvement of the Criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert
Criteria recommended in the Guideline
JMA set the "Critical Line" as the
criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert.
Criteria
 The rainfall situation is
expected to reach
Evacuation
"Critical Line" in certain
Advisory
hours*.
*: Necessary time for people to
evacuate
 The rainfall situation is
expected to reach
Evacuation
"Critical Line" in certain
Preparation
hours*.
Information
*: Necessary time for people who
require assistance to evacuate
probability
60 min. 70
rainfall
60
amount
(mm) 50
40
降雨発現
of rainfall
確率値
occurrence
rainfall with NO
sediment
disaster
・非発生降雨
rainfall with
sediment disaster
Unreal Area
 The rainfall situation has
Evacuation
reached "Critical Line."
Order
 A sediment disaster has
occurred in neighbours.
60分間積算雨量（mm/hr）
Mayor's
Decision
1.0
0.8
0.6
30
0.4
20
0.2
10
0
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Soil Water Index (mm)
土壌雨量指数（mm）
Critical Line of Sediment Disaster Occurrence
11
Situation on Pre-setting Specific Criteria in 2012
Flood
Storm Surge
Sediment Disaster
Specific criteria has been pre-determined
Specific criteria are under reviewing
Specific criteria are under development
Not yet started
Source: Fire and Disaster Management Agency, 2013
12
Achievement of the Link between Warnings and Mayors Decision
Disaster
Mayors
Decision
Evacuation
Advisory
Sediment
Disaster
River Flooding
Sediment
Disaster
Alert
Storm Surge
Flooding
Flood
Alerting
Information
Storm Surge
Warning
Evacuation
Preparation
Information
Heavy Rain
Warning
Flood
Warning
Setting Up Disaster
Countermeasures
Heavy Rain
Advisory
Flood
Advisory
Flood
Advisory
Information
Storm Surge
Advisory
13
Typhoon Talas Brought a Long-term Heavy Rainfall in 2011
Cumulative rainfall amount
from 2 to 4 September, 2011.
(mm)
50km
14
Heavy Rain by Talas caused Catastrophic Damage
Damages:
98 dead or missing
3,538 houses comp / part destroyed
22,094 houses flooded
Source: Fire and Disaster Management Agency, 2012
Talas visible image and
its track (red line) at
12JST of Sep. 2.
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2011 (figure)
15
Warnings during the Heavy Rain by Talas
Sediment
Disaster
Alert
Kazeya
Cumulative rainfall amount (mm)
1 hour rainfall amount (mm)
Rainfall continued after JMA had issued warning, and the situation became worse
and worse. However, there was no effective way to inform the public of the
catastrophic situation we never experienced!
Heavy Rain
Warning
Heavy Rain
Advisory
Sediment
Disaster
1 hour rainfall amount
Cumulative rainfall amount
9月の月降水量の
282.7mm:
mean one-month
rainfall
amount
in September
平年値 282.7mm
0：00
Aug. 31
12：00
0：00
Sep. 1
12：00
0：00
Sep. 2
12：00
0：00
Sep. 3
12：00
0：00
12：00
Sep. 4
Observed Rainfall Amount at Kazeya in Totsukawa village, Nara prefecture
16
Establishment of "Emergency Warning"
Intensity level
(Precipitation etc.)
Serious disasters will most probably happen
Once in 50
years level
Emergency Warning
Serious disasters may happen
Warning level
Warning
Disasters may happen
Advisory level
Advisory
Disaster
Serious Disaster
Serious Disasters
(Higher possibility)
Time
Emergency Warning is issued when JMA expects the
precipitation amount of statistically estimated once in 50 years.
17
Expected Timing of Issuance of Emgency Warning
Sediment
Disaster
Alert
Kazeya
Cumulative rainfall amount (mm)
1 hour rainfall amount (mm)
Heavy Rain
Emg Warning
Heavy Rain
Warning
Heavy Rain
Advisory
Sediment
Disaster
1 hour rainfall amount
Cumulative rainfall amount
9月の月降水量の
282.7mm:
mean one-month
rainfall
amount
in September
平年値 282.7mm
0：00
Aug. 31
12：00
0：00
Sep. 1
12：00
0：00
Sep. 2
12：00
0：00
Sep. 3
12：00
0：00
12：00
Sep. 4
Observed Rainfall Amount at Kazeya in Totsukawa village, Nara prefecture
18
Emgency Warning during the Typhoon Man-yi in 2013
100km
Emgency Warning
Warning
Advisory
No Warning / Advisory
1 hour rainfall amount (mm)
50
40
30
20
Emg. Warning
05：05, 16 Sep
11時間降水量（ミリ）
hour rainfall (mm)
積算降水量（ミリ）
Cumulative rainfall (mm)
Warning
18:48, 15 Sep
Advisory
13:54, 15 Sep
Cumulative rainfall amount (mm)
Otsu, Shiga prefecture
300
200
100
10
0
Press briefing
0
0時 3時 6時 9時 12時 15時 18時 21時 24時 3時 6時 9時 12時
19
Categories of Weather Warnings
20
Summary of History on our Improvement
2 grades information --- advisory, warning
2004: 10 typhoons hit Japan
Lesson: Warnings need to connect to action
After 2004: Restructuring of warning
 warning zones be set as city, town and village areas
 warning criteria be consistent with the criteria of evacuation order
2011: Unprecedented rainfall by typhoon Talas
Lesson: Effective message in emergency situation.
2013: Emergency warning launched
Our efforts will continue forever so that the warnings save people
from natural disasters more effectively!
21
Public Awareness & Cooperation with other Organizations
Public Awareness
 Leaflets
Cooperation
 Consensus on warning criteria
Warning criteria are fixed under the consensus
through the discussion with municipalities
concerned.
 Joint information
 Movies
JMA issues flood forecasts jointly with the river
administrators, namely, Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism or
prefectural governments. Sediment disaster
alerts are also issued jointly by JMA and
prefectural governments.
 Personnel exchange
JMA exchanges personnel with other national
and municipal governments related to disaster
management.
 Education
 Workshop / events
Lecture at schools
Cooperation with the
Japanese Red Cross
Society
22
Thank you
23

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