100% duurzame energie in 2050 –
hoe matchen we vraag en aanbod?
Kornelis Blok
24/04/2014
Inzet elektriciteitscentrales in Duitsland
(derde week april, 2013)
Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, 2013
2
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
A scenario for 2030 (Germany)
Nabe et al., Ecofys, 2012, Preisauswirkungen der
Erneuerbaren Energien auf den deutschen Strommarkt
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© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Power plant dispatch and prices in 2030
(week 35/36)
Nabe et al., Ecofys, 2012, Preisauswirkungen der
Erneuerbaren Energien auf den deutschen Strommarkt
4
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Impact of limited grid expansion in Germany 2030
Generation 2030
H: high interconnection capabilities
L: low interconnection capabilities
Ecofys 2013 Impacts of restricted transmission grid expansion in Germany
5
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Impact of limited grid expansion in Germany 2030
Generation 2030
H: high interconnection
capabilities
L: low interconnection
capabilities
Ecofys 2013 Impacts of restricted transmission grid expansion in Germany
6
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Flexibility options for power systems
Energy
Storage
Supply
System
Network
7
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Demand
Two case studies for 2050
1. Germany only
– using excesses for hydrogen and methane production
– By Fraunhofer IWES, Kassel
2. Europe wide
– making maximum use of a strong European grid
– By Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe
8
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Two case studies for 2050
1. Germany only
– using excesses for hydrogen and methane production
– By Fraunhofer IWES, Kassel
2. Europe wide
– making maximum use of a strong European grid
– By Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe
9
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Renewable energy production and load pattern
Energy Target 2050: 100% Renewable Energy Supply, Fraunhofer-IWES, 2010
10
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Renewable energy production and load pattern
Energy Target 2050: 100% Renewable Energy Supply, Fraunhofer-IWES, 2010
11
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
German power system, 2050
Energy Target 2050: 100% Renewable Energy Supply, Fraunhofer-IWES, 2010
12
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Electricity balance 2050
Energy Target 2050: 100% Renewable Energy Supply, Fraunhofer-IWES, 2010
13
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Two case studies for 2050
1. Germany only
– using excesses for hydrogen and methane production
– By Fraunhofer IWES, Kassel
2. Europe wide
– making maximum use of a strong European grid
– By Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe
14
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Additional interconnector capacity (scenario A)
Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU
15
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Generation potential of renewables in the EU
Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU
16
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Germany’s (possible) load curve and supply in 2050, Week 42
Calculation based on the
PowerAce model
Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU
© ECOFYS |
|
Spains’s (possible) load curve and supply in 2050, Week 27
Calculation based on the
PowerAce model
Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU
© ECOFYS |
|
Development of renewable electricity curtailment
Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU
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© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Development of conventional generation (scenario A)
Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU
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© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Development of installed conventional capacity
(scenario A)
Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU
21
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Development of storage capacity
Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU
22
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Development of interconnector capacity
Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU
23
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Flexibility options for power systems
Energy
Storage
Supply
System
Network
24
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Demand
Thank you!
Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok
Wetenschappelijk directeur
Ecofys
Kanaalweg 15-G
3526 KL Utrecht
Telefoon: 030-6623399
E-mail: [email protected]
Twitter: @kornelisblok
www.ecofys.com
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© ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok
sustainable energy
for everyone
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© ECOFYS | 11/12/2013 | Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok
Development of average electricity production costs
Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU
27
© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok
Vermogensduurkromme elektriciteitsoverschot
GW
2000
4000
hours
K. Blok 1984, Onbeperkt houdbaar, Stichting Natuur en Milieu
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© ECOFYS | 24/04/2014 | Kornelis Blok

Network Expansion to Mitigate Market Power