Global Economic Forecasts

Global Economic Forecasts
Group Economics
Macro Research
13 March 2014
13/03/2014
GDP (% yoy)
Inflation (% yoy)
Unemployment (%)
2012
2013E
2014E
2015E
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2012
2013E
2014E
US
2.8
1.9
3.3
3.9
2.1
1.5
1.7
2.0
8.1
7.4
6.4
5.4
Japan
1.4
1.9
1.8
1.2
0.0
0.4
1.6
1.2
4.4
4.0
3.9
4.1
11.8
Eurozone
2015E
-0.6
-0.4
1.3
1.8
2.5
1.4
0.5
0.8
11.4
12.1
12.2
Germany
0.9
0.5
2.0
2.3
2.0
1.5
1.0
1.5
6.8
6.9
6.7
6.4
France
0.0
0.2
1.0
1.3
2.0
0.9
0.6
0.7
9.8
10.7
10.9
10.7
Italy
-2.4
-1.7
0.5
0.8
3.3
1.2
0.3
0.1
10.7
12.2
13.7
14.2
Spain
-1.6
-1.2
0.9
1.6
2.5
1.4
0.3
0.7
25.1
26.5
26.0
25.0
The Netherlands
-1.3
-0.8
1.2
1.3
2.8
2.6
0.9
1.5
5.3
6.7
7.3
7.1
Belgium
-0.1
0.2
1.3
1.6
2.6
1.2
1.2
1.4
7.7
8.4
8.5
8.3
Austria
0.6
0.4
1.6
1.8
2.6
2.1
1.8
1.9
4.4
4.9
4.9
4.8
Finland
-0.2
-0.9
1.9
2.1
3.2
2.1
1.6
1.4
7.7
8.2
8.2
7.9
Greece
-6.4
-3.9
-0.3
3.0
1.0
-1.0
-2.1
-0.9
24.1
26.9
26.2
25.2
Portugal
-3.2
-1.4
1.3
1.7
2.8
0.3
-0.2
0.5
15.9
16.5
16.4
16.0
11.6
0.1
-0.4
2.0
2.5
2.0
0.3
0.1
0.3
14.7
13.6
12.6
UK
Ireland
0.3
1.9
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.6
1.7
2.0
8.0
7.7
7.1
6.4
Sweden
1.3
1.3
2.6
2.8
1.6
0.2
1.2
2.2
8.0
8.2
7.8
7.6
Denmark
-0.4
0.3
1.4
1.6
2.4
0.8
1.4
1.8
6.0
5.8
5.7
5.5
1.0
1.7
2.0
2.2
-0.7
-0.2
0.5
0.8
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.0
Switzerland
Norway
3.3
2.0
2.3
2.5
0.6
2.0
2.0
2.3
3.1
3.5
3.5
3.5
Canada
1.8
1.7
2.4
2.8
1.6
1.3
1.3
2.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.5
Australia
3.6
2.5
2.8
2.9
1.8
2.1
2.6
2.7
5.4
6.0
6.2
6.0
New Zealand
2.5
2.7
3.4
3.2
1.0
1.2
2.0
2.0
7.3
6.2
5.0
4.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
2015E
World
World trade
2.9
2.8
3.6
3.9
1.9
2.3
6.0
6.0
Current account (% GDP)
Budget balance (% GDP)
Government debt (% GDP)
2012
2013E
2014E
2015E
2012
2013E
2014E
2015E
2012
2013E
2014E
-2.7
-2.3
-2.2
-2.4
-6.8
-4.1
-3.1
-2.4
70
72
73
73
Japan
1.1
0.7
0.7
1.0
-9.5
-10.0
-8.5
-6.5
214
224
230
233
Eurozone
1.3
2.5
2.7
2.8
-3.7
-3.1
-2.6
-2.0
91
97
98
97
7.0
7.0
6.6
6.4
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.3
81
80
78
74
France
-2.2
-2.0
-1.9
-1.8
-4.8
-4.1
-3.8
-3.0
90
93
96
96
Italy
-0.4
0.8
1.2
1.5
-3.4
-3.0
-3.0
-2.5
127
133
134
133
Spain
-1.2
1.0
2.3
3.0
-10.6
-6.5
-5.8
-4.5
86
93
98
102
9.4
10.5
10.7
10.7
-4.1
-2.9
-3.0
-2.5
71
75
75
75
-2.0
-2.0
-1.0
-0.7
-4.0
-2.7
-2.6
-2.5
100
100
101
101
US
Germany
The Netherlands
Belgium
Austria
1.6
2.4
2.7
2.8
-2.5
-1.9
-2.3
-1.6
74
75
76
75
Finland
-1.7
-1.3
-1.5
-1.2
-2.2
-2.2
-2.3
-2.0
54
58
61
63
Greece
-4.0
-0.5
1.0
0.5
-9.0
-13.5
-2.0
-1.1
157
176
176
172
Portugal
-1.9
0.5
1.1
1.3
-6.4
-5.8
-4.2
-3.0
124
128
129
127
Ireland
UK
4.4
5.5
5.5
5.0
-8.2
-7.4
-5.0
-3.0
117
125
121
119
-3.2
-2.1
-2.4
-2.5
-6.1
-6.4
-5.3
-4.3
89
95
97
99
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, EIU, ABN AMRO Group Economics
2
Global Economic Forecasts – 13 March 2014
13/03/2014
GDP (% yoy)
Inflation (% yoy)
2012
2013E
2014E
2015E
2012
2013E
2014E
Emerging Asia
5.8
6.1
6.1
6.0
4.4
4.4
4.3
2015E
4.5
Emerging Europe
2.1
1.6
2.3
2.9
6.4
5.2
4.7
4.4
Latin America
2.9
2.4
3.0
3.5
7.8
8.5
11.2
9.0
Middle East / North
Africa
1.6
1.3
3.2
3.7
8.5
13.7
8.9
8.0
EM Total
4.3
4.3
4.7
4.9
5.5
6.1
5.9
5.6
Eurozone
-0.6
-0.4
1.3
1.8
2.5
1.4
0.5
0.5
US
2.8
1.9
3.3
3.9
2.1
1.5
1.7
1.7
World
2.9
2.8
3.6
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
China
7.7
7.7
7.5
7.0
2.6
2.6
2.8
3.2
India
3.3
4.5
5.0
5.5
9.7
10.1
8.8
8.1
Turkey
2.2
4.0
3.0
4.0
8.9
7.5
7.5
6.5
Russia
3.5
1.3
2.0
2.5
5.1
6.8
5.5
5.0
Brazil
1.0
2.5
2.5
3.0
5.4
6.2
5.8
5.9
2015E
Current account (% GDP)
Budget balance (% GDP)
2012
2013E
2014E
2015E
2012
2013E
2014E
1.2
1.5
1.0
0.5
-2.2
-2.5
-2.5
-2.5
Emerging Europe
-0.9
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
-1.7
-2.0
-1.0
-2.0
Latin America
-1.6
-2.5
-2.5
-2.5
-2.6
-3.0
-3.5
-3.0
9.2
6.5
4.5
4.5
2.3
-0.5
-1.5
-1.0
Emerging Asia
Middle East / North
Africa
Eurozone
US
1.3
2.5
2.7
2.8
-3.7
-3.1
-2.6
-2.0
-2.7
-2.3
-2.2
-2.4
-6.8
-4.1
-3.1
-2.4
Emerging economies*
China
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
-1.6
-2.0
-2.0
-2.0
India
-5.0
-3.0
-2.5
-3.0
-4.9
-5.0
-5.0
-4.5
Turkey
-6.2
-7.5
-6.0
-6.0
-2.1
-1.0
-2.5
-3.0
Russia
3.6
2.5
2.0
1.0
-0.1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-2.4
-3.5
-4.0
-4.0
-2.4
-2.5
-3.5
-3.0
Brazil
* 2013, 2014 and 2015 for current account and b udget deficit are rounded figures
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, EIU, ABN AMRO Group Economics
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3
Global Economic Forecasts – 13 March 2014
KEY RATES FORECASTS
13/03/2014
Official policy rate (%, eop)
3m interbank rate (%, eop)
2012
2013E
2014E
2015E
2012
2013E
2014E
US
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.50
0.3
0.3
0.3
2015E
1.7
Japan
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
Eurozone
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.2
0.3
0.3
UK
0.50
0.50
0.50
2.00
0.5
0.6
0.6
2.2
Sweden
1.00
0.75
0.75
1.50
1.3
0.8
1.0
1.8
Denmark
0.20
0.20
0.20
1.20
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.5
Switzerland
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
Norway
1.50
1.50
1.75
2.50
1.8
1.5
2.0
2.8
Canada
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.7
Australia
3.00
2.50
2.50
3.00
3.2
2.4
2.7
3.2
New Zealand
2.50
2.50
3.75
4.75
2.7
2.7
4.0
4.9
10y government bond yields (%, eop)
Spread versus Bunds (% points)
2012
2013E
2014E
2015E
2012
2013E
2014E
US
1.6
3.0
3.5
4.1
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
France
Japan
0.8
0.7
1.0
1.2
3.2
2.3
1.8
1.5
Italy
Eurozone (Bunds)
1.3
1.9
2.2
2.7
4.0
2.2
1.6
1.2
Spain
UK
1.8
3.0
3.4
4.0
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
The Netherlands
Sweden
1.5
2.5
2.5
3.0
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Belgium
Denmark
1.4
2.1
2.9
2.9
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
Austria
Switzerland
0.5
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Finland
Norway
2.1
3.0
3.3
4.0
10.6
6.5
6.0
5.0
Greece
Canada
1.8
2.5
3.0
3.5
5.7
4.1
3.0
2.5
Portugal
Australia
3.3
4.2
4.5
5.0
3.3
1.7
1.5
1.0
Ireland
New Zealand
3.5
4.7
5.8
7.0
Exchange rates (versus USD, eop)*
2012
2013E
2014E
Exchange rates (versus EUR, eop)*
2015E
USD
USD/JPY
2015E
2012
2013E
2014E
2015E
1.32
1.38
1.30
1.20
EUR/USD
107
139
143
144
EUR/JPY
EUR/GBP
82
103
110
120
USD/EUR
0.76
0.73
0.77
0.83
GBP/USD
1.63
1.66
1.71
1.62
0.81
0.83
0.76
0.74
USD/SEK
6.50
6.3
6.3
6.7
8.58
8.8
8.3
8.0
EUR/SEK
USD/DKK
5.66
5.5
5.9
5.9
7.46
7.5
7.1
6.8
EUR/DKK
USD/CHF
0.91
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.21
1.3
1.3
1.3
EUR/CHF
USD/NOK
5.77
5.9
6.0
6.3
7.34
8.1
7.8
7.5
EUR/NOK
USD/CAD
0.99
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.31
1.5
1.5
1.4
EUR/CAD
AUD/USD
1.04
0.9
0.9
0.8
1.27
1.5
1.5
1.6
EUR/AUD
NZD/USD
0.82
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.61
1.7
1.6
1.5
EUR/NZD
USD/CNY
6.3
6.1
6.0
6.1
8.3
8.2
7.2
7.0
EUR/CNY
USD/INR
53
53
65
68
70
72
78
78
EUR/INR
USD/TRY
1.8
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.9
2.6
2.5
EUR/TRY
USD/RUB
30
32
36
36
40
44
44
41
EUR/RUB
USD/BRL
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
EUR/BRL
* 2013, 2014 and 2015 are rounded figures
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, EIU, ABN AMRO Group Economics
4
Global Economic Forecasts – 13 March 2014
Update: 13/03/14
Nom inal GDP
GDP grow th (% yoy)
EUR bn
Inflation (CPI, % yoy avg)
Forecast:
Govt balance (% GDP)
Forecast:
Governm ent debt (% GDP)
Forecast**:
Forecast:
2012
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
Russia
2479
1.5
2.0
2.5
6.8
5.5
5.0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
8
8
8
Poland
794
1.6
3.0
3.5
0.9
1.5
2.0
-4.5
5.0
-3.0
58
50
51
Czech Rep
272
-0.9
1.5
2.5
1.4
1.0
2.0
-2.5
-3.0
-3.5
46
47
49
Hungary
193
1.1
2.0
2.0
1.7
1.5
3.0
-2.5
-3.0
-3.0
78
79
79
Romania
274
3.2
3.0
3.0
4.0
2.0
3.5
-2.5
-2.5
-2.5
36
37
37
Bulgaria
97
0.6
2.0
2.5
0.9
1.0
2.0
-2.0
-2.0
-1.5
19
23
24
China
12417
7.5
7.5
7.0
2.6
2.8
3.2
-2.0
-2.0
-2.0
16
20
18
India
4710
4.5
5.0
5.5
10.1
8.8
8.1
-5.0
-5.0
-4.5
51
51
50
South Korea
1540
2.5
3.5
3.5
1.3
2.0
2.8
1.0
1.0
1.0
36
36
35
Taiw an
897
2.0
3.0
3.5
0.8
1.1
2.1
-2.5
-2.0
-2.5
39
41
43
Hong Kong
366
3.5
4.0
2.5
4.3
3.6
3.6
2.0
1.5
1.0
35
34
33
Indonesia
1204
5.5
5.5
6.0
7.0
7.0
6.2
-3.5
-2.5
-2.0
24
25
24
Thailand
645
3.0
3.5
4.5
2.2
2.5
4.1
-3.0
-2.5
-2.5
46
47
49
Singapore
252
3.5
4.0
4.0
2.4
2.7
2.3
2.0
2.0
2.0
109
104
100
Malaysia
495
4.5
5.0
5.0
2.1
3.2
3.5
-4.0
-4.0
-4.0
51
51
52
Philippines
420
6.5
6.5
6.0
2.9
3.4
4.7
-1.0
-2.0
-1.5
49
48
46
Brazil
2335
2.5
2.5
3.0
6.2
5.8
5.9
-2.5
-3.5
-3.0
59
61
61
Mexico
2033
1.0
3.5
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.5
-2.5
-3.5
-3.0
37
40
41
Argentina
736
3.0
3.0
3.0
20.7
33.3
25.4
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
46
45
43
Venezuela
398
1.0
-1.8
1.0
40.6
65.2
42.6
-10.5
-12.0
-10.0
54
53
52
Colombia
499
4.0
4.5
4.0
2.0
2.6
3.0
-1.0
-0.5
-0.5
40
39
38
Chile
317
4.5
4.5
5.0
1.8
3.7
3.3
-0.5
-1.0
-0.5
14
15
17
Peru
323
5.0
6.0
6.0
2.8
2.5
2.9
0.5
0.0
0.5
15
14
13
Turkey
1108
4.0
3.0
4.0
7.5
7.5
6.5
-1.0
-2.5
-3.0
36
35
34
South Africa
577
2.0
2.5
3.5
5.8
5.6
5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
47
51
56
Macroeconomic forecasts and exchange rates (year end)
Current account (% GDP)
Forecast**:
2013
2014
2015
Exchange rate against USD:
Exchange rate against EUR:
Recent
Recent
13/03/2014
Forecast**:
2014
2015
13/03/2014
Forecast**:
2014
2015
Russia
2.5
2.0
1.0
36.50
36
36
50.76
47
43
Poland
-1.5
-2.5
-2.5
3.04
3.1
3.3
4.23
4.0
3.9
Czech Rep
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
19.67
23
23
27.35
27.0
27.0
Hungary
2.0
1.5
1.0
226
250
260
314
300.0
300.0
Romania
-1.5
-2.0
-3.0
3.24
3.4
3.5
4.51
4.0
4.0
Bulgaria
1.0
0.0
-1.5
1.41
1.6
1.7
1.96
2.0
2.0
China
2.0
1.5
1.0
6.14
6.0
6.1
8.54
7.8
7.3
India*
-3.0
-2.5
-3.0
61.17
65
70
85.05
85
80
4.5
4.5
3.5
1070
1100
1100
1488
1400
1350
11.0
10.0
9.5
30.33
31
32
42.17
40
38
2.0
3.0
2.5
7.77
7.8
7.8
10.80
10.1
9.3
Indonesia
-4.0
-4.0
-3.5
11425
12500
13000
15886
16250
15600
Thailand
-1.5
0.5
1.5
32.44
34
35
45.10
44
41
Singapore
20.5
20.0
18.5
1.27
1.3
1.3
1.76
1.7
1.6
Malaysia
5.0
5.5
5.0
3.29
3.1
2.9
4.57
4.1
3.5
Philippines
3.0
2.5
3.0
44.65
43
43
62.09
56
52
South Korea
Taiw an
Hong Kong
Brazil
-3.5
-4.0
-4.0
2.36
2.5
2.5
3.29
3.3
3.0
Mexico
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
13.27
12.5
12.5
18.46
16.5
15.0
Argentina
-1.0
0.0
0.5
7.87
11.2
14.1
10.95
14.5
16.9
Venezuela
3.0
1.5
1.0
6.29
6.3
6.3
8.75
8.2
7.5
Colombia
-3.5
-3.5
-3.5
2047
1950
2000
2847
2550
2400
Chile
-3.5
-4.0
-4.0
572
540
500
796
700
600
Peru
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
2.81
2.8
2.9
3.90
3.7
3.4
Turkey
-7.5
-6.0
-6.0
2.24
2.2
2.2
3.11
2.9
2.6
South Africa
-6.5
-6.5
-5.0
10.86
15.10
11.5
11.5
Exchange rate EUR/USD
Exchange rate USD/EUR
15.0
1.30
0.77
13.8
1.20
0.83
**Forecasts for govt balanc e, current acc ount and exchange rates are rounded
So urce: A B N A M RO Gro up Eco no mics, EIU
2013
2014
2015

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