http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2008/080527NIE.ppt
最大持続生態系サービスと
順応的生態系管理
松田裕之（横浜国大）
H Matsuda & PA Abrams（トロント大）
Ecol. Appl. 2006 16:225-237
牧野光琢（水産総研セ）・小谷浩示（国際大）
5th World Fisheries Congress
1
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2008/080527NIE.ppt
今日の話
1. 最大持続漁獲量（MSY)理論批判
2. 順応的生態系管理の限界
3. 最大持続生態系サービスの提案
2008/3/2
2
Requiem to Maximum
Sustainable Yield Theory
surplus production
• Ecosystems are uncertain, non-equilibrium
and complex.
• MSY theory ignores all the three.
• Myth #2 MSY theory
guarantees species
persistence…
12/6/06
3
Stock abundance
Catch in Japan (1000 mt)
Species Replacement of Pelagic Fishes
Anchovy
Horse mackerels
Pacific saury
Chub mackerel
Sardine
改定管理方式は順応的管理の先取り
だった。RMP is an AM
MSY
2
Production
limit stock level
managed
resource
1
Unused
resource
Catch quota
Fishing rate
Protected
resource
0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Relative Stock Size P t /P 0
0.8
1
MSY at 60%,
0 catch at 54%
Unconstrained MSY that maximizes the total
yield from the community
(Matsuda & Abrams 2006)
•
•
•
•
•
•
We choose fishing effort ei independently;
6-species systems including 2 prey
random matrix with 50% probabilities;
we seek r having a positive equilibrium;
price p is 0-1 for prey, 0-10 for predators
Unconstrained MSY that may result in
extinction;
12/6/06
6
5
4
3
1
2
6
Some resultant biological communities
at MSY (Matsuda & Abrams 2006)
Solution maximizing total yield from community
MSY solution often reduces species and links;
5
5
4
1
5
4 5 6
4
4
3
2
6
5
4
3
(e)
6
6
6
(d)
(c)
(b)
(a)
3
3
1
2
1
3
2
1
2
1
2
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2008/080527NIE.ppt
今日の話
1. 最大持続漁獲量（MSY)理論批判
2. 順応的生態系管理の限界
3. 最大持続生態系サービスの提案
2008/3/2
8
Feedback control in fishing effort is
powerful...
Stock size
Fishing effort
dE U N  N *


dt
dN  f ( N )  qEN
dt
12/6/06
N* N*N*
f(N)
Myth #4
• Even though the MSY
level is unknown, the
feedback control
stabilizes a broad
range of target stock
level .
Stock size N
9
Harvest of prey
(Matsuda & Abrams 2008 4th WFC Proceedings)
dN  r(1 N ) N  fN P  qEN
dt
K
1 hN










dP  d  P  bfN P
1 hN
dt
In the case of feedback
control,
dE
 U (N  S )
dt
Catch of prey will
decrease predator,
rather than prey
dP/dt=0
dN/dt=0
Fishing effort must be controlled
by the predator density P
• dE/dt = U(P – Target predator density)
• E = E(N, P), E/N > 0, E/P > 0
e.g. E = Etarget (1 + a log NP/NtargetPtarget)
• In this case, feedback control guarantees
persistence of the target stock and its
predators.
• Adaptive multi-species management is
sometimes needed (seek simplicity, but distrust it).
12/6/06
11
Feedback control with community
interactions also result in undesired
outcomes. (M & A unpublished)

dNi 
  ri   a ji N j  qei  Ni
dt 
j

9
10
8
r = (0.454,1.059,1.186,0.247,-0.006,-0.028,-0.059,-0.704,-0.308,-0.238)
7
A = (aji) =
1.
0.74
0.19
0.31
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.7
0.46
0.74
1.
0.87
0.08
0.46
0.66
0.48
0.73
0.84
0.
0.19
0.87
1.
0.96
0.08
0.14
0.83
0.
0.
0.68
0.31
0.08
0.96
1.
0.
0.
0.
0.28
0.
0.88
0.
0.46
0.08
0.
0.1
0.
0.
0.92
0.15
0.84
0.
0.66
0.14
0.
0.
0.1
0.01
0.
0.5
0.69
0.
0.48
0.83
0.
0.
0.01
0.1
0.56
0.
0.
e9 = 0.1, ei = 0
0.
0.73
0.
0.28
0.92
0.
0.56
0.1
0.28
0.
0.7
0.84
0.
0.
0.15
0.5
0.
0.28
0.1
0.
0.46
0.
0.68
0.88
0.84
0.69
0.
0.
0.
0.1
5
6
1
4
2
3
Feedback control may result in
extinction of other species (sp. 6).
ratio
de9/dt = u(N9-N9*)
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2008/080527NIE.ppt
今日の話
1. 最大持続漁獲量（MSY)理論批判
2. 順応的生態系管理の限界
3. 最大持続生態系サービスの提案
2008/3/2
14
地球環境変化Gobal change
人間の福利Human well-being
生態系サービスEcosystem services
供給サービス
生物多様性
Biodiversity
文化的サービス
支持サービス
生態系機能
Ecosystem
functions
調整サービス
(MA2005)
2008/3/2
15
なぜ自然を守るのか?
持続可能性
＝次世代の人間が生態系
サービスを享受できるよ
う、自然を守る
(米生態学会委報告 1996)
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2008/080223.ppt
生態系サービスと人間の福利
（MA 2005より）
生態系サービス
矢印の色
社会経済的認知度
低い
中間
高い
供給サービス
安全保障
•食料
•淡水
•木材と繊維
•燃料 その他
•個人の安全
•資源利用の保障
•災害からの保障
調整サービス
•気候調節
•洪水制御
•疾病制御
•水質浄化 その他
文化的サービス
•審美的
•精神的
•教育的
•娯楽的 その他
矢印の太さ
繋がりの強さ
弱い
中間
強い
生存権の基盤
•適切な生活条件
•十分な栄養ある食料
•住居
•生活用品の提供
健康
•活力
•快適さ
•きれいな空気と水の提供
よい社会関係
•社会の連帯感
•互恵
•扶助の能力
を一 選
達人 択
成一 と
す人
るが 行
能や 動
力り の
た自
い由
こ
と
、
大
切
に
し
た
い
こ
と
•
•
一支
次持
生サ
産ー
、ビ
そス
の
他栄
養
素
の
循
環
、
土
壌
形
成
、
人間の福利の構成要素
生態系サービスの価値
•
•
•
•
生物資源 農林水産物 約140兆円/年
生態系service 物質循環 約1700兆円/年
資源価値＜＜生態系サービス
漁場の自然価値＞漁業補償
2008/3/2
17
Risk of human lives by climate change
2008/3/2
Parry et al., (2001) IPCC報告書
18
Effect on ecosystems by climate chage
Global mean temperature increase above pre-industrial
2008/3/2
Hare, W. L. (2003). Assessment of Knowledge on Impacts of Climate Change –
Contribution to the Specification of Art. 2 of the UNFCCC.
http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2003_ex01.pdf.
19
Ecosystem services V(N, C)
• V(N, C) = Y(C) – cE + S(N)
•
•
•
•
Provisional Service (Fisheries Yield) … Y(C)
Fishing Cost… cE
Utility of standing biomass… S(N)
C… catch; E… fishing effort; N… stock biomass
2008/3/2
20
(Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)
Regulating services
S(N)= SN2/(B2+N2)
(S, B) = (100,10)
(S, B) = (50,50)
Stock abundance N
2008/3/2
21
(Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)
Mathematics
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Stock dynamics … dN/dt = (r – aN)N – C,
Catch and yield … C = qEN, Y(C) = pqEN,
Regulating service … S(N) = SN2/(B2+N2),
Equilibrium … N*(E) = (r – qE)/a
Service at N* … V*(E) = pqEN* – cE + S(N*)
Optimal effort Eopt satisfies that V*/E = 0
Maximum Sustainable Ecosystem Service
Eopt = (pqr – ac)/2pq2
2008/3/2
22
(Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)
Maximum Sustainable Ecosystem Service
(S, B) = (100,10)
(S, B) = (50,50)
(S, B) = (0,-)
2008/3/2
23
(Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)
Control rules
Constant escapement
ABC rule
Constant catch
MSY vs MSES with uncertainties
(Y*,V*) = (77.6 ,165.7)
fishing effort
2008/3/2
(Y*,V*) = (43.3, 216.4)
stock abundance
Catch
25
(Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)
MSES from food webs
• Community dynamics …
dNi/dt = (ri + ajiNj – qiEi)Ni
• Yield from foodweb… Y(E) = Ei(piqiNi – ci)
• Total ecosystem services...V(E) = Y(E) + Si(Ni)
• Si(Ni) = SiNi2/(Bi2+Ni2)
• We obtained EMSES ↑ Y(E) and EMSY ↑V(E)
2008/3/2
26
(Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)
3
(a)
6
4
(b)
5
6
(c)
5
(d)
5
6
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
(e)
1
2
(f)
6
2008/3/2
6
30
4
1
1
15
5
1
2
(g)
6
5
1
2
6
5
(h)
6
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
27
(Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)
Resultant food webs and fishing efforts from
1000 randomly constructed six species systems.
No. of
species
No. of extant
species using
MSY policy
No. of exploited No of extant
species using
species using
MSY policy
MSES policy
No of exploited
species using
MSES policy
0
0
0
0
9
1
0
204
0
96
2
206
792
13
318
3
531
4
43
337
4
236
0
31
201
5
25
0
8
35
6
2
0
905
4
(Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)
MSES saves fishing efforts
100%
YMSES/YMSY
80%
60%
40%
Ban-on-Fishing
20%
0%
0%
2008/3/2
20%
40%
60%
YMSY/VMSES
80%
100%
29
(Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)
Conclusion
• Responsible fisheries may play roles of
umbrella species that use a small part of
healthy ecosystem services, and give many
data of utilized resources…
• Fishing efforts that maximizes the total
ecosystem services are usually much smaller
than those for maximum sustainable yield.
2008/3/2
30
(Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)

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