Asian Dynamism and Vietnam’s CPRGS August 30, 2002 Izumi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies Background • Diverse approaches to poverty reduction – Strategic alternatives – Options for institutional arrangements • Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) in East Asia? • Vietnam’s CPRGS as a model for growth-oriented poverty reduction Why Vietnam? • Vietnam’s CPRGS: widely recognized as “good practice” because of strong country ownership • PRSP renamed to “Comprehensive Poverty Reduction & Growth (CPRGS) Strategy” Why Vietnam? (contd.) • First East Asian country to complete Full-PRSP (May 2002) • Different perspective from the early PRSPs Agenda 1. PRSP Overview 2. Main Features of Vietnam’s CPRGS 3. Asian Dynamism as Key Factor 4. Japan’s Development Cooperation to Vietnam 1. PRSP Country Status • 61 countries engaged in PRSP process [as of Aug. 2002] • 18 completed Full-PRSP o/w： 12 Africa, 4 LAC, 1 ECA, plus 1 EA (=Vietnam) o/w: 15 linked to “Enhanced HIPC Initiative” PRPS Countries by Progress No. of countries Africa (35) East Asia (6) South Asia (4) Europe & Central Asia (10) Middle East & North Africa (2) Latin America & Caribbean (4) 11 1 3 1 3 1 17 7 2 7 2 Full-PRSP 1 1 Interim-PRSP 4 before Interim-PRSP PRSP Countries by HIPC Status No. of Countries 5 Africa (35) East Asia (6) 1 1 South Asia (4) 17 7 2 4 4 HIPC Completion Points reached 4 HIPC Decision Points reached Europe & Central Asia (10) Middle East & North Africa (2) Latin America & Caribbean (4) 10 HIPC Decision Points not yet reached HIPC Sustainable Cases 1 1 Non-HIPC 1 3 2. Features of Vietnam’s CPRGS • 3 key criteria for localizing PRSPs 1. No direct linkage with enhanced debt relief program, and low aid dependency 2. National development strategy, guiding budget & PIP 3. Relatively high social achievements, but underdeveloped economy Aid Dependency (US$ per capita and % of GDP, 1998) ODA/GDP % 30 Mozambique Nicaragua 25 Laos Mongolia 20 Mauritania Burkina Faso 15 Tanzania Cambodia 10 Zambia Ghana Nepal Uganda 5 0 Bolivia Honduras Vietnam Kenya Bangladesh Sri Lanka PakistanIndonesia 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 ODA/capita US$ National Development Strategy • National goal: “Industrialization and Modernization” by 2020 • PRSP as a supplementary document to the core documents (i.e., 10-Year Strategy & 5-Year Plan), which embraces a growth-oriented development vision. National Development Strategy • PRSP to reinforce (not replace) the existing development strategy, dealing with poverty reduction in a cross-cutting and participatory manner. PRSP as a Supplementary Document Existing dev. plan govern PRSP Sector plans supplement Budget PRSP as a Primary Document Existing dev. plan symbolic PRSP govern Sector plans, budget, MTEF, aid procedures Strong Concern for Social Equity • Gov’t commitment to giving high priority to social equity • Fairly developed network for social service delivery • Existing policies & programs targeted at the poor Infant Mortality Rate (2000) 100 (per 1,000 live births) 90 80 70 60 Average of low income countries Average of middle income countries 50 40 30 20 Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2002; For Taiwan, ADB, Key Indicators 2001 . Singapore Hong Kong Japan Taiwan Malaysia Korea Vietnam Thailand China Indonesia Cambodia Myanmar Lao PDR 0 Philippines 10 % Female Adult Illiteracy Rate (2000) 80 70 Average of low income countries 60 50 40 Average of middle income countries 30 20 Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2002; For Taiw an, ADB, Key Indicators 2001 . Korea Thailand Vietnam Hong Kong Singapore Taiwan Myanmar Malaysia Indonesia China Cambodia Lao PDR 0 Philippines 10 Vietnam’s CPRGS … This is an action plan for realizing economic growth and poverty reduction objectives. The CPRGS paper sees a harmony between economic growth and measures to solve social problems…. quoted from CPRGS “Introduction”by The Socialist Republic of Vietnam, May 2002, pp.2-3. East Asian Aspiration Goal: Equitable Growth < Vietnam > Industrialization & Modernization 5-Year Plan & 10Year Strategy Means: Growth Policies Social Policies 3. Asian Dynamism as Key Factor • Development driven by trade & investment • East Asian growth as collective phenomenon: “Flying Geese Pattern” • Development as catching up (vs. development as poverty reduction) • Participation in regional/global production network through int’l division of labor Share in World Export Per Capita GNP Growth (%) (%) 7 18 6 16 East Asia 14 5 East Asia 12 4 10 3 8 Sub Saharan Africa 2 6 Sub Saharan Africa 4 1 2 0 0 60s 70s 80s 90s Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, White Paper on International Trade 2001, p.78. 60s 70s 80s 90s Structural Transformation in East Asia 3 Country 2 Latest comers Latecomers ASEAN4 NIEs 1 Japan Garment Steel Popular TV Video HDTV Time Popular TV Steel Video HDTV Competitiveness Garment Japan 2 Garment NIEs Japan Latecomers ASEAN4 Time Competitiveness Competitiveness 1 3 Time International Division of Labor Garment Popular Steel Video HDTV TV Latest comers Latest comers ASEAN4 Latecomers Japan NIEs East Asia Reduced Poverty Despite Currency Crisis Population in Extreme Poverty (%) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1999 East Asia Latin America South Asia SubSaharan Africa Vietnam’s Aspiration • Vietnam with typical East Asian aspiration • Very strong interest in narrowing intraregional gaps (vs. original ASEAN) • Also, interested in infrastructure, HRD, trade, FDI attraction • Narrow “poverty reduction” approach, not enough. Progress in the Last Decade Real GDP Growth Poverty ％ 12.0 70 10.0 60 % 58 1993 1998 50 8.0 40 37 6.0 30 4.0 20 2.0 15 10 0.0 86 9 1 25 0 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 000 2 01 Source: Government Statistics Office (GSO), Government of Vietnam. Below Total Poverty Line Below Food Poverty Line Source: World Bank, “World Bank and Vietnam,” [http://www.worldbank.or.jp/06group/RC_flame.htm]. Vietnam is a Large FDI Receiver Low & middle incomecountries 0.9 % of GDP, average 1991-99 High Income countries 3.2 Chile 3.5 Malaysia 3.2 Argentina 1.6 Mexico 1.2 China 1.1 Brazil 1 Korea, Rep. 0.8 Vietnam (1991-00) 5.4 0 1 2 3 Source: Government of Vietnam and World Bank, SIMA database (cited from Vietnam 2010 Entering the 21st Centruy , Joint Report of World Bank, ADB and UNDP, November 2000 . 4 5 6 (%) Per Capita Income (2000) US$ 40,000 at Actual Exchange Rate 30,000 20,000 at PPP 10,000 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2002 . Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia China Philippines Thailand Malaysia Korea Singapore Hong Kong Japan 0 ４. Japan’s Development Cooperation • Strong interest in the dynamic structure of the real economy • Since 1992, supporting Vietnam’s three strategic tasks: – Long-term development – Systemic transition to a market economy – Active participation in East Asia’s dynamic production network Japan’s Development Cooperation • Balanced growth with social equity • Infrastructure and policy advice – Transport & power – Large-scale, policy-oriented programs • Partnership efforts Japan's ODA to Vietnam by Priority Area 1991-2001 Unit: number of approved projects Economic infrastructure in transport and pow er etc. Human resource and institution development Environmental conservation Grant and Technical Cooperation Yen Loan Education and health Agriculture 0 10 20 30 40 50 Note: by fiscal year (April to March) and commitment base. Source: JICA Vietnam Office, JICA Activities and Grant Aid Projects in Vietnam, May 2002. JBIC Website, http://w w w .jbic.go.jp (Economic Cooperatin, ODA Project Data). 60 Future Challenges • Concrete growth strategy: – Preparing for global integration: AFTA & WTO – Enhancing productivity and industrial competitiveness – Coping with risks and emerging social problems in the growth process Future Challenges • Concern for growth: to be addressed not only in the bilateral context, but also under the multilateral framework • Japan: to support Vietnam’s balanced growth with equity—through an appropriate mix of grants, loans, and technical cooperation. The END For more details, please see our information module at: http//www.grips.ac.jp/forum-e/ by GRIPS Development Forum
© Copyright 2024 ExpyDoc
