Global Sustainability and Local Sustainability @EcoLead Itaru Yasui, Prof. Prof.Emeritus, U of Tokyo Former Vice Rector, United Nation University President, National Institute of Technology and Evaluation http://www.yasuienv.net/ 1 Bankruptcy of the Earth ~Limit to Growth in 21st century 持続不可能な Published December in 2012 地球の限界 To provide information to have an insight と未来像 into non-sustainable future of the Earth Author Itaru YASUI Coauthors, 8 researchers below, Seita Emori NIES Hiroyuki Kawashima Univ. of Tokyo Ayako Sonoda Cre-en, President Koumei Halada NIMS Miki Baba Nikkei Ecology Junichi Fujino NIES Yuuichi Moriguchi Univ. of Tokyo Hiroyuki Matsuda National Univ. Yokohama 2 What is your evaluation in 21st Century? 5: Very Serious, 4:Serious, 3:Rather Serious, 2: Moderate for a while 1:Managiable 個人的な評価を書いてみて下さい Climate Change/Extreme Whether Loss of Biological Diversity Depletion of Metal Resources Depletion of Fossil Fuel Explosion of Population/Food Issues Environmental Pollution Issues Not Enough Budget to Handle Issues 3 Chapter 1. Local Bankruptcy 地域の破綻 & Global Sustainability 地球の持続可能性 4 Coral Reef? Republic of Nauru Population 9300, 20km2 ナウル共和国 5 Guano in Nauru ナウル産グアノ Guano manure is an effective fertilizer due to its high levels of phosphorus and nitrogen and its relative lack of odor compared to other forms of organic fertilizer such as horse manure. 6 Guano Depleted in Republic of Nauru 枯渇したナウルのグアノ 2 million tons every year Amount decreased from 1989 100 million tons of guano mined High income & No income tax Free electricity Free medical care and free education fee No cooking, always eat outside Laborers mainly from China Economy 100% dependence on export Started to Deplete from 2000 Job less rate 90% No intention to work 失業率９０％ 働く意思なし 7 2012 Drought in USA カンサス州の干ばつ 8 East Part of Kansas, USA 9 West Part of Kansas, USA Center Pivot Irrigation 回転式散水機 10 Ogallala Aquifer, Grate Planes, USA Ogallala Aquifer, USA オガララ帯水層 “Fossil Water” 化石水 Water from 2 to 6 million years ago ＋ ＋ ＋ ＋ Recharge Speed by rain << Extraction Speed 11 It is difficult to say, “Yes, they are OK. Because USA farmers are different from people in Nauru.” 12 Water Shortage - Hundreds of Millions of People 淡水不足 数億人 Biosphere may become net carbon source 植物圏が二酸化炭素排出原因に 湿性熱帯林 Food: Good in Some Place, Bad in Other Place 食料事情は地域にまばら 30% of Global Coastal Wetlands Lost 湿原が失われる 0 1 2 3 4 deg C 13 Tipping Elements and Temperature Rise Sea Level Rise ～7 meters in 1000 years or more 氷床の溶解で海面上昇 １０００年間で～７ｍ Lenton and Schellnhuber (2007) 14 Other Expression of Tipping Points 人間活動の圧力 Tipping Point =Recovery Force Becomes Zero θ 人間 Pressure By活動 Human の Activities 地球の復元力 圧力 Energy 0 TP 90 15 θ Temperature – History 1000years Temp. Northern Hemi-sphere Little Glacier Mann et al. (2008)より 小氷期の温度もそれほど違わない Little Glacier: Temperature differences were not so Big! 16 Trends in Living Planet Index ＝脊椎動物の減少 17 Loss of Biodiversity Climate Change ⇒ Distribution Change of Plant(Plantae) ⇒ Extinction of Species A typical species becomes extinct within 10 million years of its first appearance 種の寿命 １０００万年 Human Beings may last 5～9 m Years or more Global Scale Extinction Events When Scale 中生代白亜紀－新生代古第三紀 Cretaceous–Paleogene(K–Pg) 中生代三畳紀－中生代ジュラ紀 Triassic–Jurassic(Tr-J) 古生代ペルム紀－三畳紀 Permian–Triassic (P–Tr) 古生代デボン紀後期 Late Devonian (Late D) 古生代オルドビス紀－シルル紀 Ordovician–Silurian (O-S) ～66 Ma 75% ～201 Ma half ～252 Ma 96% Marine ～374 Ma half ～450 Ma 60% Marine 18 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phanerozoic 五大絶滅 属 の 数 千 脊椎動物亜門哺乳綱獣亜綱食肉目ネコ亜目ネコ科ネコ属 Vertebrata Mammalia Theria Canivora Feliformia Felidae Felis チーター属、レオパード属、オオヤマネコ属、ピューマ属、ヒョウ属、他に１２属 Acinonyx, Leopardus, Lynx, Puma, Panthera、12 Others 19 Numbers of Species (in thousand) 生物種の数 菌・カビ 節足動物 原生動物 線虫 植物 擬軟体 甲殻類 脊椎動物 昆虫・多足類 20 Speed of Extinction １０００年間で１０００種の生物種のうち絶滅する数 21 Global Scale Depletion of Underground Resources – Minerals/Fossil Fuel 22 Recent Trend: Price goes up! Probably because of Commodity Price Indices Excessive liquidity Food 過剰流動性 投機資金 Raw Materials Energy Metals and Minerals 1990 23 By 2050 all reserve will be used By 2050 twice of reserve be used By 2050 exceed reserve base Reserve Base Old Metals ＝漢字がある Estimated Use Accumulated Reserve Already Mined 原田幸明氏提供 24 Degradation of Ore Grades Ore Grades of Ni and Cu Mines（1885-2010） Australia（％Cu） Australia（％Ni） Canda（％Cu） Canada（％Ni） USA（％Cu） Cu Ni 0.3% 森口祐一氏提供 25 Env. Burden Ranking by TMR = Cu > Fe > Au > Al > Ni Others Zn U Rh Pt Pd Sn Ni Al Au Fe Cu TMR = Total Material Requirement 有用な資源を採掘する結果発生する廃土・廃岩石の量 Weight of Mine Waste Accompanied by Mineral Extraction 26 土地の改変 Area Converted Developed Countries Forests in Developing Countries From MA =Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (UN 2001~2005) ~1950 1950~1990 ~2050 27 石油資源はなかなか枯渇しない 気候変動防止の視点→ 多すぎる We still have enough petroleum. In some sense, TOO MUCH. Price $/barrel Ice Sea Deep Ocean 300~1500m Used Midle East Ultra Deep 1500m～ E O R Shale Oil Heavy Other Reserves in Billion Barrel Reserves vs. Cost for Oil Production 28 UN Prospect of Global Population up to 2100 ２ World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision Figure 1: Estimated and projected world population according to different variants, 1950-2100 (billions) “Megachange: The world in 2050” The Economist High Medium Ours Low “2052” by Jorgen Randers 29 World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision Projected of Regions up area, to 2100 Figure 2: EstimatedPopulation and projected population by major medium variant , 1950-2100 (billions) Asia 変曲点 Africa To be Flat Inflection Point North America 30 Fertility Rate is important 出生率が大きな要素 Asia Africa Latin America Oceania North America Europe 31 Chapter 2. Local Sustainability under the influence of Climate Change 32 Typhoon No.30 Haiyan Hit Leyte province in the eastern Philippines ２５日 ０９時 ２０日 １２時 ２２日 ０９時 33 World Economic Forum ダボス会議 Global Risks 2013 Eighth Edition Select 50 risks from 5 fields, Societal, Geopolitical, Economic, Technological and Environmental 10 risks from each field Total 50 risks with a scope of 10 years from now An Important Point＝Cognitive Biases 「認知バイアス」 Difficult to Overcome Inevitable to overcome somehow 34 Environmental 35 Impact 4 気候変動適応策 温室効果ガス 濃度の上昇 異常気象頻発 対策不能な環境汚染 3.5 土地と水路の無謀な改変 抗生剤の効かない病原菌 3 3.5 Likelihood 4 36 IPCC AR5 WGⅠ Relation between CO2 Emission vs. Temp. Anomaly 温度上昇は累積のCO2放出量と比例 37 Allowance of 放出可能な残り予算 Integrated Assessment Model Best Available Scenario？ IPCC AR5 WGⅠ 38 CO2 Emission from Fossil Fuel for 2050 and 2100 Target: Anomaly below 2.5 ℃ Delay of some Tipping Elements In order to this, with 9 B of population ２１００年 一人 あたり 放出量 現在の １／１０ In 2050 10 GtC/year Globally Per capita emission 1.1 ｔC/year/capita In 2100 4 GtC/year Globally Per capita emission 0.25 ｔC/year/capita cf. Currenly in Japan 2.7 ｔC/year/capita 39 Chapter 3. Local Risks Agricultural Activities and Related Risks 40 Environmental Risks for Agriculture Environmental Conditions for Agriculture Water supply・Temperature Change 水・温度 Essential Elements N, P, Others 元素 Status of Soil 土壌 農薬 Agrichemicals such as Insecticide or Herbicide Genetically Modified Organisms 遺伝子組換 Environmental Changes to be considered Change accompanied by Climate Change Limitation of Natural Resources 資源限界 Water/Soil Change caused by Human Activities Feelings of Consumers 消費者 水・土の変化 41 Amount of Stream Flow=Fresh Water 2081 to 2100 河川流量＝淡水量 From IPCC AR5 2013 DRY 42 Issues in Locations Location and Availability of Water Stream Flow will be affected by Climate Change Ground Water has different Characteristics Turkey, Spain, Portugal, Italy will be dry. In Japan, not so much difference. Temperature will affect most of suitable agri. products. 農作物の地域への適性・不適正 特産物 Special Products in the area will be affected. Apples in Nagano -> Pairs in Nagano? Grapes and Wineries in Europe already receive some changes. Germany will be the best place? ドイツ産? In most cases, Some kinds of Adaptations are required. 何らかの適応策が必須 43 Water Dependence on Snow or Ice of Glacier - High Mountains 山岳地帯農業 Snow or Ice in winter play role of Reservoir 雪は貯水池 In spring, water from snow melt used for agriculture Climate Change -> Early snow melting in 春には水不足 winter -> No water reservoir for Agriculture ヒマラヤ・チベット This tendencies already apparent in Himalayan or Tibetan Region and similar in Andean Area アンデスも Adaptation : To construct new water 貯水池建設は必須 reservoirs for Agriculture 44 Fragility is high in water supply in High Mountains ≒ 2℃ Important to keep less than 2 degree ≒ ５℃ 2℃程度以下に抑えたい 45 Fertilizer Issue Nitrogen Fertilizer Harbor-Bosch Process’ success to make Ammonia from Nitrogen and Hydrogen 肥料の問題 窒素肥料 ハーバーボッシュ法 Huge Energy Consumption More than 1% of Global Energy Consumption Side Effects of Excessive Use=Over-fertilization Pollutant to Underground Water 地下水汚染 Eutrophication(Nutrient Enrichment) of Lake and River Water 富栄養化 Increase N2O(one of GHG) emission from Patty Fields 一酸化二窒素＝温室効果ガス MUST: Appropriate Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer 46 The amount of Nitrogen Fixed by Harbor-Bosch Process (ton) 20世紀の人口爆発の原因は穀物単収（単位面積当たり 140,000,000 の収穫量）の増加にある 120,000,000 8 100,000,000 4 単収 (t/ha) 6 フランスの小麦 出展 Michel & FAO Harbor demonstrated the process in the summer of 1909. 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 2 20,000,000 0 1800 0 19401850 1950 1960 19001970 川島博之氏提供 チリ硝石の代替 第一次世界大戦 Ammonia was first manufactured on an industrial scale in 1913. And replaced "Chile saltpetre“ for munitions used in World War 1 (1914-1918). 1980 2000 2010 2050 2020 1950 1990 2000 So called global population explosion depended on the increase in grain production, which is expressed in unit crop (t/ha). French Wheat 出展 Michel & FAO 8 単収の増加は５倍 4 単収 (t/ha) 6 2 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 川島博之氏提供 2000 2050 Phosphorous Fertilizer P as Phosphate リン肥 リン酸という物質 Inevitable For All Plants: To be used Nucleic Acids, ATP and membrane lipids. 核酸・細胞膜脂質 Guano from Nauru, Depleted : Guano is a highly effective fertilizer due to its exceptionally high content of nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium, three nutrients essential for plant growth P : Exist as a major component of the Earth. No.11 in the scale of abundance. Pは多く存在 F : Coexisting F may be a problem. F is No.13 in the scale of natural abundance. フッ素は有害物 49 Natural Abundance of Elements, Top 17 １位 酸素 Oxygen ４６％ ２位 ケイ素 Silicon ２８％ ３位 アルミニウム Aluminum ８％ ４位 鉄 Iron ５％ ５位 カルシウム Calcium ４％ ６位 ナトリウム Sodium ３％ ７位 カリウム Potassium ２％ ８位 マグネシウム Magnesium ２％ ９位 チタン Titanium ０．５％ １０位 水素 Hydrogen ０．１５％ １１位 リン Phosphorus ０．１％ １２位 マンガン Manganese ０．１％ １３位 フッ素 Fluorine ０．１％ １４位 バリウム Barium ０．０５％ １５位 炭素 Carbon ０．０３％ １６位 ストロンチウム Strontium ０．０３％ １７位 イオウ Sulfur ０．０３％ 50 Sustainability of Soil 土壌は問題か Maintenance and improvement of soil quality in continuous cropping systems is critical to sustaining agricultural productivity and environmental quality. 連作をする場合には確かに問題 Asian Rainforest are old and poor in minerals whereas the soils of the western Amazon (Ecuador and Peru) and volcanic areas of Costa Rica are young and mineral rich. 地殻の古さによる Change in Rainfall may affect the status of soil, i.e. mineral contents and contents of organic components. 降雨の状況が変わると土壌へ影響 51 Shortage in Food Supply? 食糧不足は？ 1. Insufficient Agriculture Field 生産農地不足 More than 1-2m of Sea Level Rise 国はどこ Production of Wheat and other crops will decrease. Local Temperature Change Large Scale of Loss of Agricultural Land in several countries 農地・居住地の喪失 Resident Area may be lost. -> Environmental Refugees -> Decrease in Food Supply Draught in Turkey, Spain, USA, Australia 2ｍの海面上昇 温度変化はどこでも Change in Suitable Crops -> Decrease in Supply Fields optimum to certain crop move to colder area. Is it possible for farmers to move? 栽培最適地の北方向への移動 52 2. Severe safety requirement by 消費者の要求 citizens/consumers GMO(genetically modified organisms) Issues for Soy, Corn etc. 遺伝子組換作物 As Japanese consumers, everybody wants to have “Zero Risk” environment without any Agrichemicals. 日本で農薬をゼロにせよ？ Is it Safe? Yes, safe if eaten. 食べるのは安全 Any environmental adverse side effects? 環境は？ Any abrupt change in productivity of crop? 突然変異は？ Yield may be go down. 生産量は下がる Even if Agrichemicals are safe for human, but is it safe for insects to help pollination? ミツバチのような受粉支援の昆虫は？ 53 Adaptation with Skilled Forecast 予測力と適応力 Average Rain Fall = Slight Increase Temperature will go up to some extent Agricultural Suitability of certain place will be changed, but the other place will become good land for agriculture. CO2 concentration increase =Some fertilizing 二酸化炭素の施肥効果 effect Area of farming land is about half of land 使用可能な農地 suitable for agriculture. 候補の半分を使用中 If enough farmers in the new agricultural 農民の数！ land, global supply of food will be enough. 多分大丈夫 54 It is a good strategy to have long perspectives of the global change as possible as we can, if we try to prepare for unexpected changes of local situation. 想定外の変化に対して準備をしておくこと 長期的な地球レベルの変化を予測することが重要 55 Theoretical Goal 理論上の解決法 “To realize Steady State of the Earth in 2100.” 定常状態を実現する Three Conditions そのための三条件 1:Renewable Resources : Use only the amount naturally renewed. 再生可能資源：再生の範囲内 2:Non Renewable Resources : Use No Energy resources. Recycle all Metals & Minerals perfectly using Renewable Energy. 地下資源を使うな 完全リサイクル 3:Environmental Pollutant : Release only the amount within the capacity of the Earth. 汚染物：地球の処理能力以内 56 More Detailed Description by Herman Daily in 1971 ハーマン・デイリーの原則 1. Renewable Resources: Do not use renewable resources at higher speeds than the speed of regeneration. 再生速度以内で利用 Good for : Fishery, Forestry, etc. 漁業、林業など 3. Wastes: Discard wastes Only at a speed less than the speed of reduction by the capacity of the Earth. 地球の処理能力以内で廃棄 Including “Nuclear Spent Fuel” 使用済み核燃料も 57 Continued 枯渇性資源は、再生可能資源に変換せよ 2. Non-Renewable Resources: Do not use non-renewable resources at higher velocities than the velocity of conversion of non-renewable resources into renewable resources. = We have to use a part of non-renewable resources such as oil to construct devices or equipment for renewable energy such as wind and photo voltaic, which can produce more energy than non-renewable energy consumed. 例：石油を使うなら、その一部で自然エネルギー機器を作り 石油より多くの再生可能エネルギーを生み出せ 58 Practical Goal 現実的な分かりやすいゴール “ Use only the Energy from renewable resources in 2100” 再生可能エネルギーだけ！ の２１００年 This will be 90% achievement to the これで90%目標達成 theoretical goal. It means the life of natural resources will be extended about 10 times. 資源の寿命が１０倍伸びる It can be said, “Human Life Reach A New Stage”. 人類は新しいステージに到達したと言える 59 Energy Innovation in the Past The 5th will be the Ultimate One 人類史上のエネルギーのイノベーション ５番目は究極 Energy Innovation from the view point of Human History 1st＝Started to Use Fire 火 500 thousand Years 2nd＝Use Fossil Fuel 化石燃料 from 1800 電気 3rd＝Use Electricity from 1880 4th＝Other than Fossil Fuel 原子力 ＝Nuclear Energy in 1943 ＝PV cells, Wind full operation not yet 再生可能エネルギーは未達成 5th＝Steady State 定常状態の達成 2100 or so 60 Energy Balance of the Earth Solar Energy Moon Global Energy Consump. Reflection x To Space Tidal Absorbed Geothermal Kinetic Energy Photosynthesis 地球上のエネルギー使用量の１００００倍が供給されている 100% Renewable Energy Scenario by WWF http://www.wwf.or.jp/activities/lib/pdf_climate/green-energy/WWF_EnergyVisionReport_sm.pdf 2050 = too early to be realized. Need New Social Systems. No Technologies available so far to utilize unstable electricity. 2050年は早過ぎる。不安定な電力を使いこなす技術、社会制度が不足 62 Conclusions No Possibility of Extinction of Homo-sapience in spite of Limitation of the Earth. 地球の限界のために人類が絶滅することは無さそう Local Sustainability will be affected by global environmental changes including climate change, limitation of some resources and loss of biological diversities. 地域の持続可能性はグローバルな持続可能性の影 響を受ける。気候変動、資源の有限性、そして、生物 多様性の喪失など Crisis can be averted by prediction and management of environmental risks. 適切な予測と環境リスクの管理で危機は回避できる Possible solutions for global environmental issues must be discussed and proposed. 何が起きるか不確実！ グローバルな環境問題の解決法を提案することが必須 63
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