OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Japan’s Postwar Economy Toshihiko Hayashi [email protected] http://www.hayashiland.com Osaka School of International Public Policy Osaka University OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University The Size of Japan’s Economy Only US and Japan have more than 100 million population among advanced economies. Only US and Japan have per capita GDP over 30 thousand dollars among OECD nations. US and Japan take up 40 % of world GDP. Average grwoth rate over past 30 years: Japan 268%, US 258%. Average growth rate over past decade: Japan 16%, US 37%. OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Average Distance between People (m) Korea Netherland Japan India Britain Germany Italy China Thailand France Indonesia Spain Myanmar Malaysia US New Zealand Russia Canada Australia 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ GDP per Capita (1998) Dollar 40,000 35,000 at current exchange rate 30,000 at PPP 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 d ite EU l ng y do C m an a Au da st ra lia Ko re M a Ne ex th ico er la nd s Sw Sp itz ain er la nd Ki Ita Fr y an ce an n er m pa Ja G Un Un ite d St a te s 0 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ Passenger Car Production (1998) 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 n ny a m s pa a J e at it Un ed St r Ge Fr c an e in a Sp ng m do d ite n U Ki a K e or Ca da a n ly Ita zil a Br OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ Average Life Expectancy Ja p Fr an an ce Ita Ca ly na Sw da ed en S Au pai st n Un G ral ite erm ia d Un Kin any ite gd d om St at e Ko s re Br a az Ch il ina Eg yp t In dia 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Male Female OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ Crime Rates Serious Crimes United States United Kingdom Germany France Japan Rate of Incidence 1990 1996 5,820 8,630 7,108 6,169 1,324 5,079 9,360 8,125 6,110 1,440 Arrest Rate(%) 1990 1996 21.6 31.6 47.0 37.5 42.3 21.8 26.5 49.0 30.2 40.6 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ Arrest Rates Homicides United States United Kingdom Germany France Japan Rate of Incidence 1990 1996 9.4 2.3 3.9 4.5 1.0 7.4 2.6 4.3 4.1 1.0 Arrest Rate(%) 1990 1996 67.2 92.0 94.2 77.2 96.7 66.9 91.0 92.1 74.9 98.5 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ Food Self-Sufficiency Rate (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 s &s he llf ish Fi iry ilk &d a M sh pr od uc t gs Eg ea t M ui t Fr es bl ge ta an s Ve Be y Po ta to es Ba rle t ce Ri he a W Ce re al s 0 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University Growth Rates of Japan’s Real GDP ■ ％ 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 00 20 98 19 96 19 94 19 92 90 19 19 88 19 86 19 84 19 82 19 80 19 78 19 76 19 74 72 19 19 70 19 68 19 66 19 64 19 62 19 60 19 58 19 -2 19 56 0 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ High Growth: Environment ◆Postwar World Free Trade System ・IMF, GATT, World Bank ◆Technology ・Heavy, Petrochemical Industry ・Catch-up ◆Natural Resources ・Relatively Abundant World Resources OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ High Growth: Engine ◆Labor Force ・Demographic Configuration, Education, Social Mobility ◆Capital Formation ・ “Investment Calls for Investment”, High Domestic Saving ◆Social Overhead Capital ・Private/Social Capital, FILP OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ High Growth: Efficiency and Equity ◆Productivity Increase ・Technology Transfer, Industrial Configuration ◆Man-machine Relationship ・Technological Progress, Robots ◆Japanese Management ・Life Time Employment, Main Bank System, Organizational Hierarchy ◆Income Distribution ・Fruit of Growth, Equitable Wealth Distribution OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ High Growth: Government Policy ◆From Reconstruction to Catch-up ・Teachers Around, Desire to Catch-up ◆Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy ・Keynesian Fiscal and Monetary Policy ◆Industrial Policy ・Priority Allocation of Scarce Resources ・Encourage Growth-Mitigate Decline OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ High Growth: Why? ◆Why Fevered? ・Driving Force, Social Ethos, Escape into Busy-ness ◆A Turnpike Theorem ・Distant Destination, Turnpike, SelfAssurance, Meaning of Life OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ The Lost Decade % 8.0 GDP 6.0 4.0 2.0 -4.0 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 -2.0 Deflator 1980 0.0 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ Bubble and Its Aftermath ◆From Stable Growth to Bubble ・Asset Price, Self-perpetuating Expectation ◆Bubble Burst ・Asset Price Fall ◆Vicious Cycle ・Negative Asset Effect, Shattered Expectation ◆Old Keynesian Prescription ・Fiscal Stimulus OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ Unemployment Historically High Unemployment Rate % 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ Government Debt Accumulates National Debt as % of GDP 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ Bank Failures Unprecedented Number of Banks Failed 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 OSIPP / Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University ■ Towards a New Economy ◆Structural Change ・Political System, Government Reform, Industrial Restructuring ◆New Sense of Direction ・Social Concern and Participation, Private Initiative ◆New Economy ・Information Technology, Quality of Life, Environment, Welfare, Sustainable Growth
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