Trend of Rice Consumption in Japan Kobe University Kako, Toshiyuki Three Phases of Rice Economy ① Rice shortage phase（1945～67） ② Rice surplus phase（1968～ ） ③ Rice trade liberalization phase （1995～ ） (1,000ｔ) Fig. 2 Rice Production, Consumption and SelfSfficiency ％ 140 16,000 14,000 ←Production Consumption→ 120 12,000 100 10,000 ↑ Self-Sufficiency Rate 8,000 80 60 6,000 1946 1953 1960 1967 1974 Year 1981 1988 1995 Position of Rice in Japanese Agriculture Year 2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 Proportion of rice planted area in total planted area 40.7 46.3 41.7 38.8 38.9 Proportion of rice output in total agricultural output 47.4 37.9 30.0 27.8 25.5 Proportion of rice revenue in total agricultural revenue of farm household 49.9 38.0 29.1 28.6 27.5 Proportion of calorie supply from rice in total daily per capita calorie supply 48.3 36.7 30.1 25.9 23.8 Proportion of expenditures on rice in household food expenditures Proportion of expenditures on rice in household consumption expenditures 23.6 12.9 8.7 6.5 4.5 10.3 4.3 2.5 1.6 1.1 Per Capita Consumption of Rice and Wheat kg 140 120 ←Rice 100 80 60 Wheat ↓ 40 20 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year Source：Food Agency, Food Balance Sheet 1985 1990 1995 2000 Share of Expenditures on Rice, Bread and Noodles in Household Food Expenditures（nominal price） ％ 30 25 ←Rice 20 15 10 ←Bread and Noodles 5 0 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 Year 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 Factors influencing rice consumption level • • • • • • Consumer rice prices Consumption expenditure Change in dietary habits: westernization Aging of population Decline of family size Increasing participation rate of women in labor market • Declining share of farm households Table Correlation matrix of variables related to per capita rice consumption per capita per capita consumer rice private final rice consumption consumption price consumer age of persons Share of meat household per income price head household earned expenditure Cc ｙ Pｒｃ Pm Aｇ ｎ Cc 1.000 ｙ -0.932 1.000 Pｒｃ -0.384 0.565 1.000 Pm -0.832 0.777 0.261 1.000 Aｇ -0.978 0.968 0.439 0.835 1.000 ｎ 0.970 -0.879 -0.237 -0.849 -0.952 1.000 s -0.909 0.939 0.435 0.807 0.950 -0.890 Note: Rice consumption household data of the period 1980-2001. by spouse s 1.000 Figure Per capita daily rice consumption by age group g 250 200 150 100 1995 1999 50 0 １－6 7－14 15-19 20-29 30-39 Age group 資料：厚生労働省「国民栄養の現状」 40-49 50-59 60-69 70- Figure Proportion of old people and employed weamen (%) 40 30 20 10 Proportion of old peaple Proportion of employed women 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 year 1995 2000 2005 2010 Yearly per capita rice consumption （milled rice, kg） kg 120 Non-rice producing household Rice producing household Food balance sheet data 100 80 60 40 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Monthly per capita rice consumption g 5,700 5,400 5,100 4,800 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 4,500 4,200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Month Sorce:食糧庁「米の消費動向等調査」 8 9 10 11 12 Monthly per capita rice consumption g 7,500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 7,000 Rice producing household 6,500 6,000 5,500 Non-rice producing household 5,000 4,500 4,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Month 8 9 10 11 12 Indices Indices of rice consumption, rice price, number of household member, consumption expenditure（1980＝100） 175 150 125 100 75 n C y Prc 50 25 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 Year 1994 1996 1998 2000 Ｓｈａｒｅ ｏｆ Ｃａｌｏｒｉｅ Ｓｕｐｐｌｙ ％ 60 ↑ Rice, animal products, oils and fats 50 40 ← Rice 30 ← Animal products and oils and fats 20 10 0 1975 Source：MAFF, Food Balance Sheet 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 Estimation result of per capita rice demand function (1980－2001年） Ln C = 4.600 - 0.200Lny + 0.557Lnn (10.385)(-3.950) (3.854) R2=0.964 c : per capita rice consumption y ：Per capita private final consumption expenditure n : Number of person per household Projection of Rice Demand Assumptions on the rate of change of exogenous variables (Data:1996-2001) 1. Per capita private final consumption expenditure: 0.4% 2. Number of person per household: －0.8% Lny = 5.411 + 0.004t R2=0.60 (994.975)(2.927) Lnn = 1.219 - 0.0076t R2=0.907 (288.105)(-7.048) Projection of yearly per capita rice consumption ｋｇ 100 80 60 Observation Projection 40 20 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year 資料：『食料需給表』、『国民経済計算年報』、『家計調査年報』 2005 2010 2015 Projection results of table rice demand in 2010 and desirable figures described in the Basic Plan of Food, Agriculture, and Rural Areas Desirable figures Projection result described in Basic Plan of Food, Agriculture, and Rural Areas Total Domestic supply (brown rice) 9.06 million t 8.46 million t Annual per capita rice supply (milled rice) 66.0 kg 60.2 kg Projection of consumption and production of rice (千ｔ） 16,000 実際値 ｼﾅﾘｵA ｼﾅﾘｵB 実際値 ｼﾅﾘｵA ｼﾅﾘｵB 14,000 ←production 12,000 consumption→ 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 2010
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