Structure of Model for the
APEIS Project
Yuzuru Matsuoka
Kyoto University, Japan
1. Brief introduction of the AIM
2. Models used for APEIS Project
3. AIM/Emission, Ecosystem,
Material and AIM/Trend
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
1
The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model
• AIM is an abbreviation of Asia-Pacific Integrated
Model.
• It is one of Integrated Assessment Models (IAM),
and a large-scale computer simulation model
developed to promote the integrated assessment
process in the Asia-Pacific region
• Collaborated study by Japan, China, India , Korea,
Thailand and Malaysia members.
• The AIM project is started in July 1990, and began
an international collaboration system from 1994.
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
2
Integrated Assessment Model of Climate Change:
The AIM Approach
Population
model
IPCC
Economic model
Lifestyle
Energy
model
Land use model
AIM/Emission,
AIM/Material
GHG emissions
AIM/Trend
APEIS
Mitigation
of
Climate
Change
Technology
Japan team
UNEP/GEO3
India team
Eco-Asia
Carbon cycle
EMF19
National
Atmospheric
chemistry
apply
Ocean
uptake
Climatic change
government
private
companies
Sea level
rise
model
development
Korea team
AIM/Climate
Climate change
Adaptation
of
Climate
Change
China team
Thailand team
Malaysia team
Water resource
Ecosystem
Human
health
Agriculture
AIM/Ecosystem
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
3
Linkages of AIM models
Atmosphere
AIM/Emission
Socio-Econ. &
Emission Scenario
AIM
(Asian-Pacific
Integrated
Model)
Socio-Econ.
Factors
CCSR/NIES
CGCM
Land
Surface
Ocean
Land-use
AIM/Climate
Water
Resource
Crop
Productivity
Food Demand
And Supply
AIM/Ecosystem
Adaptation
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
4
AIM/Emission
Bottom-up and Top-down
• The AIM/Emission has two types of models, i.e. Bottom-up
type energy models and Top-down type energy models.
• Bottom-up type energy models : Energy demand is
calculated by multiplying energy service and energy
efficiency. Energy efficiency is calculated with the diffusion
of new technologies, and energy prices. Within the model，
recruit processes of energy technologies, choice and
operation of energy devices are described in detail.
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
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Top-down and
Bottom-up
Energy models
in AIM Family
トップダウンの視野
Top-down
view
Energy system as a part of economic system
経済又は経済のエネルギーサブシステム
・GDP=f(労働力、資本、エネルギー、その他
・GDP
= f( labor、capital、energy、others) )
→静的視点
・ Population・price・investment
・人口、・価格、・投資
growth → Dynamic point of views
・成長効果 →動的視点
・Economic
AEEI
AEEI
・Structual
・構造的変化
change
・・技術的変化
Technological change
Price
effect
価格効果
・Substitution
・代替効果
・その他
・Others
Income
effect
収入効果
Investment
投資効果
Economic
経済活動 Activity
エネルギーサービスに
Energy service
エネルギーサービスに
対する需要
対する需要
demand
エネルギー供給
Energy supply
End-use
最終消費
energy
エネルギー
service
CO2排出
COCO
2
2排出
emission
Energy
intensity, Energy mix
ｴﾈﾙｷﾞｰ強度、燃料構成
Economic
経済活動
Activity
部門A A
ｴﾈﾙｷﾞｰ供給
Energy
end-use
technology
a
技術a
・投資費用
•Investment
・運転費用
•Operating cost
・効率
•Efficiency
・寿命等
•Lifetime
Energy
end-use
ｴﾈﾙｷﾞ
technology
ｰ消費b
技術
•Investment
b
•Operating cost
•Efficiency
•Lifetime
Economic
経済活動
Activity
部門B B
Energy end-use
ｴﾈﾙｷﾞｰ消費
technology b
技術c
・
・
・
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
Economic
経済活動
Activity
部門C C
Bottom-up
view
ボトムアップの視野
6
AIM/Emission
- Coupling of models Socio-Economic Scenarios
Resource Base
Population
GDP
Lifestyle
AIM/emission
Regional / National Bottom-up Model
End Use
Energy
Efficiency
Social
Energy
Efficiency
Technology
Change
Exploitation
Technology
Resource
Base
GDP
Food
Consumption
Pattern
Industrial
Process
Change
Industrial
Production
Other
Inputs
GDP
Population
Population
Energy
Resource
Energy
Service
Deman
d
Goods &
Service
Demand
Energy
Price
Social
Energy
Efficiency
Change
End Use
Technology
Change
End Use
Technology
Final
Energy
Demand
Final
Energy
Supply
SO2,
NOx,
SPM
Emissio
n
Regional Air
Pollution
Model
Goods &
Service
Supply
Primary
Energy
Supply
Energy
Conversion
Technology
Efficiency
Biomass
Energy
Demand
Energy
Conversion
Technology
Goods and
Service Price
Land
Input
Cropland
Pasture
Forest
Biomass Farm
Global Energy-Economic Model
Other Land
GHGs
Emissions
Global Land
Equilibrium Model
AIM/climate Model
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
7
CO2 Emission Scenarios
A1FI (A1C)
A2
A1FI (A1G)
A1B
B2
A1T
B1
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
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Linkages of AIM models
Atmosphere
AIM/Emission
Socio-Econ. &
Emission Scenario
AIM
(Asian-Pacific
Integrated
Model)
Socio-Econ.
Factors
CCSR/NIES
CGCM
Land
Surface
Ocean
Land-use
AIM/Climate
Water
Resource
Crop
Productivity
Food Demand
And Supply
AIM/Ecosystem
Adaptation
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
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AIM/Climate
AIM/emission
Natural change
Balance and Chemical model
of GHGs
Carbon cycle model
N2O model
CH4 model
CFCs model
Ocean model
convection and
transport of
aerosol, SO2 and
NOx
Climate model
Radiative forcing, Energy balance
Upwelling-Diffusion ocean model
Sea level rise model
Ice melt
Glaciers
Greenland
Antarctica
Thermal
expansion
Sea level rise
Global temperature change
Spatial interpolation with GCM
GCM,RegCM
experiments
Regional temperature change
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
10
Temperature change between 1990 and 2100
A2 3.8±0.8
0.4
A1B 2.9±0.6
0.2
B2 2.7±0.6
1～ 1.5
1.5～ 2
2～ 2.5
2.5～ 3
3～ 3.5
3.5～ 4
4～ 4.5
4.5～ 5
5～ 5.5
5.5～ 6
0
A1T 2.5±0.6
B1 2.0±0.5
← 95% 5.1C
Geometric mean= 2.88 C
S.D. of logarithm= 0.346
← 50% 2.88C
A1FI 4.5±0.9
0.6
1
0.5
← 5% 1.63C
All 3.1±1.1
Fitted probability and frequency of occurence
Simulated 7 GCMs are GFDL R15a, CSIRO Mk2, HadCM3,
HadCM2, ECHAM4/OPYC, CSM 1.0 and DOE PCM
0
1
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
2
6
5
4
3
Temperature change (C)
11
Climate change in Asian-Pacific countries
from 1990 to 2100, increase in DJF
Precipitation change
Temperature change
0.25
0.25
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
China 3.9±1.4℃
> 7.0
6.0-6.5
Global 3.1±1.1℃
6.5-7.0
5.0-5.5
5.5-6.0
4.0-4.5
Japan 3.7±1.3℃
4.5-5.0
Japan 4.6±9.9%
< -30
-20～-15
-5～0
China 7.2±9.4%
<1.0
1.0-1.5
1.5-2.0
2.0-2.5
2.5-3.0
3.0-3.5
3.5-4.0
India 3.7±19.5%
10～15
25～30
India 3.1±1.1℃
12
Linkages of AIM models
Atmosphere
AIM/Emission
Socio-Econ. &
Emission Scenario
AIM
(Asian-Pacific
Integrated
Model)
Socio-Econ.
Factors
CCSR/NIES
CGCM
Land
Surface
Ocean
Land-use
AIM/Climate
Water
Resource
Crop
Productivity
Food Demand
And Supply
AIM/Ecosystem
Adaptation
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
13
Outline of the Crop Productivity Model
AIM/climate, Surface water runoff model
Crop productivity model
Temperature, Precipitation, PET, PAR, Soil characteristics
Crop Parameters
Estimation of Growing Period
Biomass Production Rate
Threshold Temp.
Normal Growing Period
Photosynthesis Path
Normal Leaf Area Index
Net Biomass Production
Normal Harvest Index
Soil constraints
Soil data
Potential Productivity
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
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Wheat productivity change in some
countries from 1990 to 2100
Without CO2 fertilization
With CO2 fertilization
1
1
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
Ca
na
0
～
50 50
0
～
40 0～ 4 30
3 0～
0
2 0～ 2 10
1 0～
0
～
0
-1 0 ～ -1
-2 0 0
0
-2
～
0
-3
-3
～
40
-4 0 0～ - -5 0
-5
～
-6 0 0
0
-6
～
7
-7 0 0～ 0
-1
Ind
Ch
i na
Ja
pa
n
-6.
5
- 5.
±1
. 5%
ia
9±
-53
10
.6
. 2±
19
%
Ca
na
0
da
29
.7
.9%
±6
.9
%
～
50 50 0
～ 4
40 0～ 30 0
3 0～ 2 0
2 0～ 1 0
1 0～ ～
0
10
-1 ～ - -2 0
0 ～ -3 0
2
0
0
-4
-3 0～
0
-4
0～ ～ -5 6 0
5
0
70
-6
0～ ～ -7
0
0
-1
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
Ind
Ch
i na
Ja
pa
n
24
.3±
4.4
33
ia
.2±
-34
12
da
. 3±
16
90
.6
.1%
.5%
%
15
±1
9
.8%
Wheat productivity change in India from
1990 to 2100, with CO2 fertilization
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
750
p
-7
0
-6 ～ 5～ 65
-6
0 -6
-5 ～ -5 0
5
-5 ～ - 5
0～ 50
-4
5 -4
-4 ～ -4 5
0
-3 ～ -3 0
5～ 5
-3
0～ -30
-2
-2
5
5
-2 ～ -2
0～ 0
-1
5～ -15
-1
0～ 10
-5 ～ -5
0～ 0
5～ 5
10
0.00
650
p
550
p
450
p
SR
ES
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
pm
-
pm
pm
pm
-14
-20
-26
-29
±7.
8%
±7.
0%
±6.
8%
±5.
8%
34±
16%
16
AIM/Trend
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
17
2032
202 5
2015
200 5
1995
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
Si n gapor e
Br unei
Kor ea, Rep
Naur u
Aust r al i a
Tai wan
J apan
Thai l and
Pal a u
NewZeal a nd
Mo ngol i a
Mal ays i a
Chi na
Kor e a, Dem
Pol ynesi a
Vi et Nam
I ndi a
Phi l i ppi ne s
I ndo nesi a
Mal di ves
Ton ga
Fi j i
S amoa
Paki s t an
Bang l ades h
Nepa l
Sr i Lanka
Pa puaNe wGui n ea
My anmar
Ki r i ba t i
Vanua t u
Sol omon I sl and s
Bhut an
Lao
Year
Cambodi a
Projection of CO2 emission per
capita for each country
CO2 emission per capita (Mt-C/cap)
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Country
18
CO2 emission intensity
for each scenario
Change of agricultural water
withdraw intensity at Thailand
Conventional
2032
Policy
1995
Agricultural water withdraw intensity at Thailand in 1990
m3/ha/year
gC/m2/year
2000
0 5 50 500 5000
0
5
10
Agricultural water withdraw intensity at Thailand in 2030
100 1000
2032
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
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AIM/Material
produced commodity
pollution
pollution
management
CO2
energy
intermediate
production
sector
CO2
recycle
market
import
export
environmental
Industry/investment
env. capital
labor
energy
intermediate
capital
labor
abroad
CO2
household
energy
final demand
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
government
20
AIM models for this Workshop
AIM/trend
AIM/Trend
Communication platform
to assess future trend
of each countries
in the Asia Pacific
China
Region supported
Thailand
with
multi -regional
environment -economic
CGE model
AIM/Ecosystem
AIM/ecosystem
Future
economic trend
Temperature
Future
environmental trend
Korea
India
Japan
Detailed process
model for ecosystem
assessment focused
on surface water
recycling, crop
productivity and
vegetation
Precipitation
Sunshine
Water resource
Land use
Socio -economic
indicator
Crop Productivity
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
AIM/CGE
AIM/CGE-Linkage
Detailed technology
selection model
supported by
CGE model
to estimate
Emissions of
CO 2 , SO 2 , NO 2,
SPM and other
Emission Intensity of SO
pollutants
AIM/material
AIM/Material
CGE -supported
model integrated
with material balance
to assess recycle
process and
environmental
industry
2
in China
Environ mental
Burden
Environmental
burden
Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry
Consumer
Environment Fund
Wastes
AIM/emission
AIM/Emission
Recycle
World Economic
Model
Environmental
Burden
Environmental Industry
(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment
Technology needs
Research on new technologies
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
21
Review of Models used in this Workshop
•
AIM/Emission ：AIM/Enduse is
a bottom-up energy model, which
focuses on the activities of the people who deal with energy
consumption and production, plus the changes in technologies.
Based on detailed descriptions of these items, it calculates the
changes in energy consumption from technological substitution
caused by changes in energy prices, using its bottom-up structure.
• AIM/Ecosystem : calculates global and regional climatic impacts,
especially on primary production industries, such as water supply,
agriculture, forest products and human health.
• AIM/Material ： intends to estimate economic and environmental
effects of environmental investment. It assesses the effects of policy
integration for comprehensive environmental problems. It has a
consistency of material flow and a consistency of activities and reality
of technology and policies.
• AIM/Trend : is developed to prospect the basic situation of economy,
energy and environment in Asia-Pacific region. It covers 42 countries
in Asia-Pacific region. It uses simple method (econometric) and
develops several scenarios for capacity building.
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
22
AIM/Emission family
Model
AIM/Enduse
Situation
Operating
AIM/Local
Operating
Object
National CO2 reduction
program
Characteristics
Bottom up, end-use energy-emission model,
Constant lifetime cohort, Optimum subsidy
option
Linkage of CO2, SO 2, NO2, Bottom up, end-use energy-emission model,
SPM reduction program, simple cohort structure, coupling with air
National/Regional scale, pollutant emission inventories
ALICE:Ancillary-effects estimating model for
Coupling reduction
local governments to improve their
program with Emission
comprehensive environment
Inventory
AIM-COUNTRY
APEIS
Implementation
Fortran program named
"engd"
MS access interface and
GAMS main program,
Supported with
AIM/Database
Device combined version (AIM/Enduse Vr.2):
Able to treat combined input and output
services, e.g. Power generation and secondary
use of electricity
Subsidy version (SUB) : optimum subsidy to
reduce gas emission
AIM/Energyeconomics
AIM/CGE (energy)
AIM/CGE (Asia)
Obsolete but
Operating
(First
Generation)
Long-term GHG emission
projections from the point
of energy supply and
demand equilibrium
Based on the ASF/ER model, Backcasting ability Fortran program
from emission and concentration targets,
Coupling with the enduse model in near-term
projection
Operating
Economic assessment of
global GHG reduction,
EMF14/19 comparative
study
Global multi-regional CGE model with energy
resource sectors and interface to bottom-up
model
Developing
Environmental and
Economic assessment of
Global Environmental
Policy, focuses on AsiaPacific region
Global multi-regional CGE model with economic GAMS/MPSGE, GTAP5,
goods/bads, natural resource sectors and
IEA energy balance
interface to bottom-up model
table, Commodity
statistics, Detailed
database of natural
resources
AIM/Database
AIM-COUNTRY
APEIS
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
GAMS/MPSGE, GTAP4,
IEA energy balance table
23
AIM/Ecosystem family
Model
AIM/Ecosystem
Situation
Object
Climate change impact
assessment with detailed
process model, surface water
cycle, crop productivity,
vegetation, health
Characteristics
Grid or basin level
hydrological model, crop
model, vegetation model,
malaria model. Interface with
GCM/RegCM output
Implementation
Global/Regional version
Operating and
Developing
(First
Generation)
Developing
AIM/Ecosystem2
Developing
Global assessment
Linkage with World crop trade
model
Country/Local version
Country impact assessment
Packaged and Disseminate
version of global version
AIM/Country
Assessment of global
Assembly of rather
environmental changes and their independent modules
counter-measures
LAND, WATER,
AGRI, ENV,
HEALTH, VEG,
Exploratory models for next
generation AIM activities
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
GRASS, ArcGIS
FORTRAN, C
IDRISI,
FORTRAN,C, VB,
AIM/Database
GRASS, ArcGIS
FORTRAN, C,
GAMS
24
AIM/Material and AIM/Trend
Model
AIM/Material
Situation
Operating ,
Applying to
Japan, India
and China
Object
Economic assessment of
nation environmental
policy, focused on CO 2
reduction and waste
recycling
Characteristics
Implementation
One country CGE GAMS/MPSGE
model with material MS ACCESS
balance and
MS EXCEL
interface to
environmental
technology model
Coupling with
bottomup
engineering
models, Coupling
with Household
production
approach
Country
econometric
model. Assembly
of Energy, Water,
Agriculture and
other modules
Developing/
evolving to an
econometrice tool
(ATPL/ATML)
included in the
AIM/Database and
AIM/CGE/ASIA
APEIS
AIM/Trend
Operating,
Distributing
Communicating platform
for constructing AsiaPacific regional
environmental outlook,
ECO-ASIA, APEIS,
GEO3,AIM/Country
Prospect
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop
October 24, 2002
Visual Basic for MS
Excel, National and
International
statistics
AIM/Database
25

Round Type Linear Guides（Casting Iron）