SNAPSHOT A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND January 2015 VIRGINIA January Summary A Closer Look at…Characteristics of Young Adults Virginia’s economy improved somewhat, according to the most recent data, with strong employment growth and improving household conditions, while housing market indicators were somewhat mixed. According to the 2009-2013 American Community Survey (ACS) from the U.S. Census Bureau, young adults—or persons between the ages of 18 and 34 years old—account for 23.8 percent of the population in Virginia and and 23.4 percent in the nation as a whole. Labor Markets: Employment in Virginia expanded 0.4 percent in November as firms added 11,500 jobs to the economy. The majority of jobs were added in the private sector as government only added 400 jobs (0.1 percent) in the month. The professional and business services industry added 5,300 jobs in November (the largest absolute gain of any industry); however, the industry still falls short of its year-ago level by 0.9 percent. The education and health services industry, on the other hand, shed 1,200 jobs in November but still had the largest year-over-year percentage gain of 2.4 percent. Employment in the state on whole grew 0.4 percent since November 2013 as every industry except logging and mining, information, professional and business services, and government expanded payrolls. In the state’s metro areas, employment expanded in November in every MSA while, on a yearover-year basis, every MSA except Lynchburg and Roanoke added jobs. Household Conditions: The unemployment rate in Virginia declined 0.3 percentage point to 5.0 percent in November as the number of unemployed fell sharply in the month. The civilian labor force contracted in November for the sixth straight month but grew 0.5 percent since November 2013. In the third quarter of 2014, real personal income in Virginia rose 0.5 percent and increased 1.5 percent since the second quarter of 2013. Also in the third quarter, the share of mortgages with payments 90 or more days past due remained at 1.8 percent; the subprime delinquency rate declined 0.2 percentage point to 9.1 percent but was offset by increases in the FHA and VA rates. Housing Markets: Virginia issued 1,831 new residential permits in November, down 34.9 percent from the prior month and 8.0 percent since November 2013. Metro area permitting activity varied, but increased in the month and on a year-over-year basis only in the Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA. According to CoreLogic Information Solutions, home values depreciated 0.4 percent in October but appreciated 1.7 percent since October of last year. At the metro level, home values depreciated in the month in every MSA except Roanoke and Virginia Beach; however, values appreciated in every MSA except Danville, Harrisonburg, and Lynchburg on a year-over-year basis. The chart below compares the young adults at the time of the 2009-2013 ACS (represented by the solid bars) with the young adults at the time of the 1990 Census (represented by the green outline). In general, young adults today are less likely to be married, less likely to be employed, more likely to be working on or already hold a bachelors degree or higher, and more likely to be living with a parent than they were in the 1990's. Young Adult Population in Virginia Percentage of the population 18 to 34 years old 2009-2013 American Community Survey and the 1990 Census 100 90 United States ACS 80 Virginia ACS 70 1990 Census 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Never married Employed Bachelor's degree or higher Enrolled in school Living with a parent VIRGINIA 1 SNAPSHOT A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND January 2015 VIRGINIA Labor Market Conditions Payroll Employment (SA) United States - Total Fifth District - Total Virginia - Total Logging and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Blacksburg MSA - Total Charlottesville MSA - Total Lynchburg MSA - Total Northern Virginia - Total Richmond MSA - Total Roanoke MSA - Total Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA - Total Winchester MSA - Total Virginia Payroll Employment Performance Period Level (000s) MoM % Change YoY % Change November November November November November November November November November November November November November November November November November November November November November November 140,045.0 14,102.6 3,784.8 9.8 179.9 231.3 643.0 68.8 196.2 663.0 513.1 374.2 197.2 0.23 0.32 0.32 -1.01 -0.88 0.30 0.69 -1.01 0.31 0.81 -0.23 1.22 -0.20 1.99 1.46 0.41 -2.00 0.73 0.78 0.31 -1.43 1.61 -0.91 2.44 0.27 1.60 708.3 74.1 106.6 101.6 1,382.3 651.2 157.9 761.2 60.6 0.06 0.41 0.47 0.69 0.60 0.45 0.64 0.58 0.83 -0.23 0.54 1.62 -1.07 0.57 2.18 -1.00 1.17 2.02 Year-over-Year Percent Change through November 2014 Virginia - Total 0.4 Logging and Mining -2.0 Construction 0.7 Manufacturing 0.8 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 0.3 Information -1.4 Financial Activities 1.6 Professional and Business Services -0.9 Education and Health Services 2.4 Leisure and Hospitality 0.3 Other Services 1.6 Government -0.2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Virginia Total Employment Performance Year-over-Year Percent Change through November 2014 United States 2.0 Fifth District 1.5 Virginia 0.4 Blacksburg MSA 0.5 Charlottesville MSA Lynchburg MSA 1.6 -1.1 Northern Virginia 0.6 Richmond MSA 2.2 Roanoke MSA -1.0 Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA 1.2 Winchester MSA 2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 VIRGINIA 2 SNAPSHOT A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND January 2015 VIRGINIA Labor Market Conditions Virginia Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (SA) Through November 2014 November 14 October 14 November 13 United States 5.8 5.8 7.0 11 Fifth District Virginia Blacksburg MSA Charlottesville MSA Lynchburg MSA Northern Virginia (NSA) Richmond MSA Roanoke MSA Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA Winchester MSA 5.7 5.0 ----------------- 6.1 5.3 5.5 4.5 6.0 --5.5 5.5 5.6 4.8 6.4 5.3 5.6 4.3 5.9 4.0 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.0 10 Period Level (000s) MoM % Change YoY % Change United States November 156,397 0.08 0.72 Fifth District Virginia Blacksburg MSA Charlottesville MSA Lynchburg MSA Northern Virginia (NSA) Richmond MSA Roanoke MSA Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA Winchester MSA November November November November November November November November November November 15,357 4,256 ----------------- -0.13 -0.15 ----------------- 0.13 0.52 ----------------- Civilian Labor Force (SA) Initial Unemployment Claims (NSA) Period Level MoM % Change YoY % Change United States Fifth District November November 1,267,175 73,224 6.75 -7.93 -12.03 -22.01 Virginia November 15,953 -7.20 -22.44 9 United States 8 Virginia 7 6 5 4 3 2 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Virginia Labor Force Year-over-Year Percent Change through November 2014 4 United States Virginia 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 VIRGINIA 3 SNAPSHOT A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND January 2015 VIRGINIA Household Conditions Virginia Real Personal Income Real Personal Income (SA) Period Level ($mil) QoQ % Change YoY % Change United States Q3:14 13,552,516 0.65 2.38 6 Fifth District Virginia Q3:14 Q3:14 1,322,513 381,872 0.58 0.52 2.05 1.47 5 Median Family Income Period Level (000s) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Richmond MSA Roanoke MSA Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA 2014 2014 2014 72.9 62.9 70.6 ------- -1.35 ---3.68 Non-Business Bankruptcies Period Level QoQ % Change YoY % Change United States Fifth District Virginia Q3:14 Q3:14 Q3:14 225,386 17,458 5,802 -8.96 -7.48 -6.83 -13.26 -9.94 -7.55 Q3:14 Q2:14 Q3:13 2.26 1.22 8.48 2.31 1.28 8.68 2.57 1.39 9.24 1.81 0.85 9.07 1.81 0.86 9.26 2.14 1.02 9.87 Year-over-Year Percent Change through Q3:14 4 3 2 1 0 -1 United States -2 Virginia -3 -4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 Virginia Mortgage Delinquencies Mortgage Delinquencies (% 90+ Days Delinquent) United States All Mortgages Prime Subprime Virginia All Mortgages Prime Subprime Percent 90+ Days Delinquent through Q3:14 6 United States 5 Virginia 4 3 2 1 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 VIRGINIA 4 SNAPSHOT A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND January 2015 VIRGINIA Real Estate Conditions Total Private Building Permits (NSA) Virginia Building Permits Year-over-Year Percent Change through November 2014 Period Level MoM % Change YoY % Change United States November 71,250 -26.06 -0.66 100 Fifth District Virginia Charlottesville MSA Harrisonburg MSA Lynchburg MSA Richmond MSA Roanoke MSA Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA Winchester MSA November November November November November November November November November 9,064 1,831 39 27 36 237 32 576 25 -23.19 -34.89 -39.06 68.75 -18.18 -19.66 -61.45 85.81 -21.88 0.33 -7.99 5.41 0.00 -48.57 -43.71 3.23 79.44 -26.47 80 Total Private Housing Starts (SAAR) United States Fifth District Virginia Period Level (000s) MoM % Change YoY % Change November November November 1,028 124 25.1 -1.63 -12.35 -25.68 -6.97 -15.28 -22.27 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 Virginia Housing Starts Thousands of Units (SAAR) November 2014 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 VIRGINIA 5 SNAPSHOT A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND January 2015 VIRGINIA Real Estate Conditions House Price Index (2000=100) Virginia House Price Index (CoreLogic) Year-over-Year Percent Change through October 2014 Period Level MoM % Change YoY % Change United States October 174 0.51 6.05 30 Fifth District Virginia Blacksburg MSA Charlottesville MSA Danville MSA Harrisonburg MSA Lynchburg MSA Richmond MSA Roanoke MSA Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA Winchester MSA October October October October October October October October October October October 181 205 134 180 187 197 130 160 152 187 185 -0.39 -0.35 -0.35 -0.94 -4.53 -0.35 -0.35 -0.26 0.48 0.03 -0.09 2.40 1.72 2.39 3.05 -5.90 -2.96 -0.48 2.90 5.87 2.52 4.40 25 Median Home Sales Price - NAR (NSA) Period Level ($000s) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Richmond MSA Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA Q3:14 Q3:14 --208 --4.00 --3.74 Median Home Sales Price - NAHB Period Level ($000s) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Richmond MSA Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA Q3:14 Q3:14 208 195 1.46 1.56 1.46 0.00 20 15 10 5 0 -5 United States -10 Virginia -15 -20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA Median Home Sales Price (NAR) Year-over-Year Percent Change through Q3:14 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 VIRGINIA 6 SNAPSHOT A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND January 2015 VIRGINIA Real Estate Conditions Housing Opportunity Index (%) Richmond MSA Office Vacancy Rate Through Q3:14 Q3:14 Q2:14 Q3:13 Richmond MSA 75.2 75.3 75.4 20 Roanoke MSA Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA 84.5 76.3 82.8 78.0 83.8 78.7 18 Q3:14 Q2:14 Q3:13 12.4 13.2 12.4 14.4 13.3 12.5 14.1 11.6 14.2 12.4 14.9 15.3 Commercial Vacancy Rates (%) Office Vacancies Norfolk Richmond Industrial Vacancies Northern Virginia Richmond 16 14 12 10 8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Richmond MSA Industrial Vacancy Rate Through Q3:14 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 VIRGINIA 7
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