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2014 WEEK 16
Featuring
the SDQL
Including: Week 16 NFL selections+!!
NFL Player Trends, SBB’s Spotlight System, Dozens of NFL/NCAA Trends w/SDQL!
MTI’s Newsletter Teaser Plays...
Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser Play of the Week
4-Star Minnesota +12.5, NY Giants +11
Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: The Vikings are 24-0
ATSp6 as a road dog the week after a road game. The Giants
are 16-0 ATSp6 on the road after they allowed at least 10
points fewer than their season-to-date average.
Three-Team, Ten-Point Teaser Play of the Week
5-Star Pittsburgh +6.5, Indianapolis +13, New England -0.5
Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: The Steelers are 32-0
ATSp10 the week after a game as a favorite in which their
completion percentage was at least ten points higher than
their season-to-date average. The Colts are 41-0 ATSp10 the
week after they scored fewer points than expected but won
nonetheless. The Patriots are 24-0 ATSp10 on artificial turf.
SBB’s Bowl Season Bonanza
S
portsBook Breakers has boasted years of success in the
college football bowl season and is back this year with an
unbeatable postseason package. Vince Akins’ of SportsBook
Breakers has their bowl season package now available at
Vegasinsider.com.
In This Issue:
MTi’s Week 16 Selections..................................................... 2
SportsBook Breakers’ Week 16 Selections........................... 3
The Power of Two-Team Teasers.......................................... 4
SportsBook Breakers’ Spotlight System................................ 5
Cajun Sports College Football System.................................. 5
SBB’s 10 NFL Trends to Watch in Week 16........................... 6
SBB’s Featured NFL Trend..................................................... 7
NFL Schedule Chart.............................................................. 8
NFL Trends and Notes......................................................9-11
SBB’s NFL Player Trends...................................................... 10
NFL Handicapping Bible Trends.......................................... 11
Tracking The 2014 Season...
W
hile the powerful SDQL is great for tracking complex and
very specific handicapping information, it is also just as
useful for tracking the basics. In this spot all season long we
will track basic handicapping situations over the full season, as
well as how they’ve gone the past three weeks.
Situation
2014 ats record
ats record Last 3
Weeks
Home
107-116-1
22-26
Home Dog
32-37
8-11
Home Favorite
74-74-1
14-15
Off a win
102-104-1
23-25
Off a Cover
97-110
21-26
Passes Per Game
35.0 passes
33.8 passes
Rushes Per Game
26.8 rushes
26.5 rushes
Average Total Score
45.4 ppg.
43.7 ppg.
MTi’s NFL Selections / Week 16
MTi’s Newsletter Dog of the Year
5-Star ARIZONA +9 over Seattle -- Since 1989 -- the start of the
database -- there has never been a regular season home dog by
more than a TD that has 11 wins on the season. Since 2008 there
have only been three home dogs that had 11-plus wins on the
season and all three of those won outright. See for yourself with
this SDQL text: wins>=11 and HD and REG and season >= 2008
Big road favorites that have had recent success rushing the
passer have not been good investments. In fact, the league is
0-19 ATS as a road favorite of more than five points when they
had three-plus sacks as a favorite in each of the past two weeks
and allowed less than 440 yards passing in both games combined.
The SDQL text is: A and line<-5 and 3<=p:sacks and 3<=pp:sacks
and NB and p:NB and p:F and pp:F and po:PY + ppo:PY<+440 and
date>=20051201
This one makes a lot of handicapping sense. Teams that have
been relying on their defense have a lot of trouble covering a big
number on the road. Seattle’s offense will feel no pressure to
score points here -- especially with Ryan Lindley starting at QB
for the Cardinals.
However, the Cardinals have a fine defense as well. Arizona’s
defense has allowed a first down on only 29.3% of their opponent’s
snaps this season and this is number one in the entire league.
Seattle is 10th in this category. The Cardinals have allowed an
average of only 15.0 ppg at home this season and this is number
one in the NFC.
The Cardinals are 11-3 this season. Two of their three losses
came with Larry Fitzgerald on the sidelines with an injury. The third
was in Denver. So, with Fitzgerald in the lineup, the Cardinals are
11-1 this season. In last week’s 12-6 win over the Rams, Fitzgerald
had seven catches and this is a positive indicator. The Cardinals
are 10-0 ATS (+11.30 ppg) after a win in which Larry Fitzgerald had
more than 5 receptions. Check it out with this SDQL text: 5<=Larry
Fitzgerald:p:receptions and p:W and season >= 2013
Also, the Cardinals are 7-0 ATS (+10.86 ppg) at home between
away games, 7-0 ATS (+11.29 ppg) the week after a game in which
they committed no turnovers and 7-0 ATS (+12.43 ppg) as a dog
when they had a positive takeaway margin in each of their last
two games.
This has been a terrible scheduling spot for the Seahawks.
Seattle is 0-8 ATS (-8.38 ppg) as a road favorite on grass between
home games, losing each of their last four straight up -- including
2 | www.KillerSports.com
a 30-21 loss in San Diego earlier this season.
AND, the Seahawks are 0-9 ATS (-8.4 ppg) after playing the 49ers.
Grab this big number and consider sprinkling a bit on the
moneyline as well.
MTi’s FORECAST: ARIZONA 20 Seattle 17
MTi’s Newsletter Totals Play
4.5-Star Minnesota at Miami UNDER 42.5 -- The Dolphins are
7-7 on the season and they have home games against the Vikings
and Jets to end the season. We had a futures play on Miami over
8 wins at +145 and it looks like we’ll get at least a push on this
play. There is no reason for Miami to take risks on offense here.
They’re at home and they are the favorite. We expect them to
feature their pass rush and their running game. Miami is 0-15 OU
as 4-plus point home favorite when they play at home next. The
SDQL text is: team=Dolphins and H and n:H and line<=-4 and NDIV
and season >= 1992
Note that Miami has allowed an average of 11.2 ppg in this spot.
Also, the Dolphins are 0-10 OU since the start of the 2010 season
when they are off a road game in which Brian Hartline had fewer
than three catches. The SDQL text for this one is: Dolphins:Brian
Hartline:p:receptions<3 and p:A and season >= 2010
In addition, Miami is 0-11 OU as a six-plus point favorite in
which they lost in each of the last two weeks, with the SDQL text:
team=Dolphins and line<=-6 and p:L and tpp:L and p:NB and NB
and 0-6 OU (-9.33 ppg) since 2011 at home the week after they
had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards,
with this SDQL text: team=Dolphins and H and p:PY/p:RY>=3 and
NB and season >= 2011
The Vikings tight end, Kyle Rudolph was a favorite target of
Bridgewater last week against the Lions, catching seven passes for
a total of 69 yards. In his four-year NFL career, the Vikings are 0-6
OU on the road after a game in which he had five-plus receptions.
Verify this career-perfect trend by running this SDQL text: A and
5<=Vikings:Kyle Rudolph:p:receptions
Minnesota looked like a winner against the Lions last week
until Bridgewater threw two second half INTs. We expect a more
conservative approach from both teams here. Take the UNDER.
MTi’s FORECAST: MIAMI 16 Minnesota 10
SportsBook Breakers’ NFL Selections / Week 16
SBB’s Newsletter Side
4-STAR Kansas City over PITTSBURGH - Kansas City’s losing
streak of three games before last week’s win over Pittsburgh
accentuated their flows in gambler’s minds. However, those
same flaws existed during the previous five-game winning streak
as well. With wins in Miami, Buffalo and San Diego already this
year, KC has shown they can beat this caliber of AFC team on the
road this season and we see them getting this must win here.
For Pittsburgh, their game in Atlanta last week with a total
of 54.5 played into their current offensive focused style. The
total is this game is over a TD lower than that matchup. Teams
in games where the total is at least 6.5 points lower than last
game are 345-455-22 ATS (total - p:total<=-6.5).
Pittsburgh won that game 27-20, benefitting from an
interception for a touchdown in the process. The Steelers are
0-8 ATS as a favorite after a win as a favorite in which they had a
pick-six. (team=Steelers and F and p:interception touchdowns>0
and p:WF and NB and date>=20041101).
Kansas City final got that win in their last game, 31-13 as
10.5-point favorites against Oakland. It was their first cover
in four games but things had been steadily improving. The
Chiefs are 6-0 ATS (14.50 ppg) since Dec 19, 2004 within 3 of
pick when their ats mrgin increased over each of their past two
games (team=Chiefs and -3<=line<=3 and ppp:ats margin<pp:ats
margin<p:ats margin and date>=20041219).
Along with that, their much maligned passing game as been
on the upswing as well, culminating in a 297 throwing day
from Alex Smith. The Chiefs are 8-0 ATS (7.12 ppg) since Oct
04, 2004 as a dog when their passing yards increased in each
of the last two weeks (team=Chiefs and D and ppp:passing
yards<pp:passing yards<p:passing yards and date>=20041004).
He still spread the ball around plenty, but he did heavily
target tight end Travis Kelce who had five grabs for 59 yards and
a TD in the win. The Chiefs are 10-0-1 ATS (9.64 ppg) since Dec
29, 2013 after a game in which a player had at least 5 receptions
(team=Chiefs and 5<=max:p:receptions and date>=20131229).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Kansas City by 4
SBB’s Newsletter Total
4-STAR Baltimore and Houston Under - If you think the Texans
played conservatively before, just wait. They know are deciding
between a pair of quarterbacks who not only haven’t played
this season and weren’t even on the team last week. Look for
Houston to run, run and run more, while Baltimore is happy to
win with a conservative offensive game as was the case last week.
Houston already comes into the game 31st in the league in
passing attempts between their first three quarterbacks on the
season. The Ravens are 0-8 OU (-10.44 ppg) since Sep 18, 2005
as a road favorite when their opponent’s season-to-date average
pass attempts per game is fewer than 30 (team=Ravens and AF
and oA(passes)<30 and date>=20050918).
They make up for it by running a league-high 33.8 times
per game. The Ravens are 0-10 OU (-11.65 ppg) since Nov 01,
2009 as a favorite of at least three points when their opponent’s
season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is greater
than 30 (team=Ravens and line<=-3 and 30<oA(rushes) and
date>=20091101).
Last week, the total in their divisional showdown was 49 but
Houston was force to play ultra conservative in a 17-10 loss.
Teams coming off a game where the total was at least 49 that
went under by more than 12 points are 50-68-2 OU (p:total>=49
and p:ou margin<-12).
When Baltimore is a sizable road favorite, as a they are here,
it is because of what they are expected to do on defense. The
Ravens are 0-8 OU (-8.4 ppg) since January 2009 as 3.5-11-point
road favorites in at least week seven of the season (team=Ravens
and AF and -11<=line<=-3.5 and week>=7 and date>=20090101).
Last week, they put the game on their defense and defeated
Jacksonville, 20-12 as 13.5-point favorites. The Ravens are 0-10
OU (-8.6 ppg) since 2001 when they won last game while failing
to cover by more than three points, if neither team was up 17+
at halftime (team=Ravens and p:W and p:ats margin<-3 and
-17<p:M2<17 and season>=2001).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 30 points
Vince Akins picks
are found at
Vegas Insider
2014 NFL Week 16 | 3
The Power of Two-Team Teasers
One of the fantastic and unique features of www.killersports.com is the ability to run teaser trends. Each week
we’ll show off five such two-team teaser trends in this space utilizing this important and often overlooked area of
handicapping. Any trend with a “p6” designation is for a play on/under 6-pt teaser and a trend including “m6” is for
a play against/over 6-pt teaser.
Teaser Trends
Sports Data Query Language
The Steelers are 25-0 ATSp6 (14.16 ppg) since Oct 14, 1991 at
home after a game in which their completion percentage was
at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average.
team=Steelers and H and tA(p:CP)+ 10<=p:CP and date>=19911014
The Cowboys are 15-0-1 ATSp6 (10.81 ppg) since Sep 29, 2002
the week after a game as a dog in which they had at least
three more minutes of possession time than their season-todate average.
team=Cowboys and p:D and tA(p:TOP)+ 180<=p:TOP and NB and
date>=20020929
The Vikings are 15-0 ATSp6 (14.03 ppg) since Oct 06, 1991 as a
dog after a loss in which they had at least three more minutes
of possession time than their season-to-date average.
team=Vikings and D and p:L and tA(p:TOP)+180<=p:TOP and
date>=19911006
The Falcons are 0-27-1 ATSm6 (-11.45 ppg) since Sep 24, 1989
as a road dog when they are facing a team that has allowed at
least 12.03 yards per completion season-to-date.
team=Falcons and AD and oA(o:YPC)>=12.03 and date>=19890924
The Steelers are 0-17 ATSm6 (-13.06 ppg) since Jan 01, 2012
versus any team with fewer wins.
team=Steelers and wins>o:wins and date>=20120101
The Packers are 0-16 ATSm6 (-10.56 ppg) since Nov 08, 2009 as
a road favorite vs a non-divisional opponent.
team=Packers and AF and NDIV and date>=20091108
The Cardinals are 22-0 OUm6 (14.25 ppg) since Oct 03, 2004
after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of
their offensive plays as an away dog.
team=Cardinals and p:first downs<0.25 * p:plays and p:AD and
date>=20041003
The Lions are 18-0 OUm6 (16.92 ppg) since Dec 24, 1989 as a
road favorite when their opponent’s season-to-date average
rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25.
team=Lions and AF and oA(rushes)<25 and date>=19891224
The Browns are 0-24-1 OUp6 (-11.12 ppg) since Oct 19, 2003
when their passing yards decreased in each of the last two
weeks.
team=Browns and p:PY<pp:PY<ppp:PY and ppp:week + 3==week
and date>=20031019
The Giants are 0-16 OUp6 (-15.22 ppg) since Nov 06, 2011 playing on artificial turf coming off a win.
team=Giants and surface=artificial and p:W and date>=20111106
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Cajun Sports College Football System
Cajun Sports College Football Systems will
return for bowl season.
SportsBook Breakers’ Spotlight System
SportsBook Breakers has spent the past season focused
on league systems and has found over 100 that are winners at well over the 55% required rate for the long-term
success. Each week, SBB will highlight an active league
system here:
Teams that allowed no more than six first
downs to their opponent last game are
40-16-3 ATS.
SDQL TEXT: po:first downs<=6
It is no secret that the NFL is a offense-driven league. That
is what is what gets the spotlight and what the media
focuses on. While we usually think of the positive aspects
of that, the same holds to for really bad offenses and their
performance. Just like the theory that quarterbacks get too
much credit for wins and losses, the same can hold true for
offenses in general as you see here.
System: Teams that allowed no more than six first downs to
their opponent last game are 40-16-3 ATS.
This week, this trend is active Monday night with the
Cincinnati Bengals. Last Sunday, Cincinnati went into
Cleveland and completely throttled the Browns, 30-0,
holding Cleveland’s offense to jsut five total first downs, two
of which came on penalties.
Now think about where the focus on this game has been
since that game. All week, you’ve heard Johnny Manziel this
and Johnny Manziel that with his struggles in that game.
But how much have you heard about how dominating
Cincinnati’s defense was in that game or how their offense
just steadily kept picking up first downs to keep their
defense off the field.
Looking at this game log we see a steady carryover effect
with generally strong defensive perform again, allowing just
14.7 ppg. and often exceeding defensive expectations with a
24-34-1 OU mark.
Consider this system as Denver travels to Cincinnati Monday
night.
2014 NFL Week 16 | 5
SBB’s 10 NFL Trends to Watch: Week 16
Trends
Sports Data Query Language
The Giants are 14-0 ATS (15.82 ppg) since Dec 22, 2002 as
a dog after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their
season-to-date average.
team=Giants and D and po:points<=tA(po:points)-10 and NB
and date>=20021222
The Cardinals are 12-0-1 ATS (8.31 ppg) since Oct 30, 2011
when facing a team whose defense recorded 4-plus sacks in
their last game.
team=Cardinals and 4<=op:sacks and date>=20111030
The Steelers are 11-0 ATS (7.05 ppg) since Oct 14, 1991 at
home after a win as a favorite in which their completion
percentage was at least ten points higher than their seasonto-date average.
team=Steelers and H and p:FW and tA(p:CP)+ 10<=p:CP and
date>=19911014
The Chargers are 0-12 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since December 1997
when they are off an ATS loss by eight-plus points as a dog to a
divisional opponent.
team=Chargers and p:D and p:DIV and p:ats margin<=-8 and
19971201<=date
The Rams are 0-12 ATS (-14.0 ppg) since 2001 after a loss which
went under by more than 14 points.
team = Rams and season>= 2001 and p:L and p:ou margin<-14
The Titans are 0-12-1 ATS (-9.27 ppg) since Dec 06, 2009 on
the road after a game in which a receiver had more than 100
receiving yards.
team=Titans and A and 100<=max:p:receiving yards and
date>=20091206
The Titans are 0-10 ATS (-14.90 ppg) since Dec 05, 2010 when
facing a team whose QB was sacked 4-plus times last game.
team=Titans and 4<=opo:sacks and date>=20101205
The Jaguars are 12-0 OU (13.83 ppg) since Dec 24, 2005 as
a favorite the week after a game in which they had at least
three more minutes of possession time than their season-todate average.
team=Jaguars and F and tA(p:TOP)+ 180<=p:TOP and
date>=20051224
The Patriots are 10-0 OU (12.45 ppg) since Nov 30, 2008 when
they had at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks.
team=Patriots and 3<=p:sacks and 3<=pp:sacks and pp:week +
2==week and date>=20081130
The Ravens are 0-10 OU (-11.65 ppg) since Nov 01, 2009 as a
favorite of at least three points when their opponent’s seasonto-date average rushing attempts per game is greater than 30.
team=Ravens and line<=-3 and 30<oA(rushes) and
date>=20091101
Purchase SportsBook Breakers
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SportsBook Breakers’ NFL Trend of the Week
The Raiders are 0-24 ATS
(-11.9 ppg) since December
18, 1994 after week 12 during
the regular season when they
are off a game vs a divisional
opponent where they recorded
fewer than three sacks.
SDQL Text
team=Raiders and p:DIV and p:sacks<3 and
week>12 and REG and 19941218<=date
System Analysis
F
or the Raiders, motivation has been a real
problem for years, especially when they
get late in the season. Oakland has trouble
even getting up for divisional games at times
late in the season but coming off them, the
Raiders really struggle to stay motivated.
Active Trend: The Raiders are 0-24 ATS (-11.9
ppg) since December 18, 1994 after week 12
SU: 1-23-0 (-14.42, 4.2%) ATS: 0-24-0 (-11.88, 0.0%) avg line: 2.5
O/U: 11-12-1 (1.65, 47.8%) avg total: 42.7
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Completions Passing YdsTrnOvrs Team 21.8 89.2 35.3 20.0 205.3 2.4 Opp 35.6 160.7 27.0 16.2 193.7 1.0 Day
WeekSeason Team
Sunday 16 1994 Raiders Saturday 17 1994 Raiders Sunday 15 1995 Raiders Sunday 17 1995 Raiders Sunday 17 1996 Raiders Sunday 17 1997 Raiders Sunday 13 1998 Raiders Thursday 1
4 1999 Raiders Sunday 15 2002 Raiders Sunday 13 2003 Raiders Sunday 13 2004 Raiders Sunday 14 2004 Raiders Saturday 17 2005 Raiders Sunday 13 2006 Raiders Sunday 17 2006 Raiders Sunday 14 2007 Raiders Sunday 13 2008 Raiders Thursday 1
4 2008 Raiders Sunday 15 2008 Raiders Sunday 16 2010 Raiders Sunday 17 2011 Raiders Sunday 16 2013 Raiders Sunday 17 2013 Raiders Sunday 13 2014 Raiders Sunday 16 2014 Raiders during the regular season when they are off
a game vs a divisional opponent where they
recorded fewer than three sacks.
We’ve already seen this system come into
play once this season, just three weeks ago
when Oakland was coming off its first win of
the season against divisional rival Kansas City.
The next week, Oakland played the worst
game of any team on the season, losing 52-0
to the Rams.
Last week, Oakland played the Chiefs again
but struggled in a 31-13 loss. They now host
the Bills as a home dog. Consider this trend
as one of many factors this Sunday.
Query Output
Q1 2.9 6.6 Q2 Q3 5.1 2.9 10.5 5.1 Q4 4.0 7.2 Final
15.0
29.4
Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSrOUr
Seahawks a way 0-0 10-10 0-3 7-3 17-16 -7.5 37.0 1 -6.5 -4.0 -5.2 1.2 W L U Chiefs home 0-7 3-7 0-3 6-2 9-19 -3.0 38.0 -10 -13.0 -10.0 -11.5 1.5 L L U Steelers home 0-7 7-13 3-3 0-6 10-29 -1.0 39.0 -19 -20.0 0.0 -10.0 10.0 L L P Broncos h
ome 7-0 7-17 14-0 0-14 28-31 -3.5 41.5 -3 -6.5 17.5 5.5 12.0 L L O Seahawks h
ome 8-0 6-13 7-15 0-0 21-28 -3.5 37.5 -7 -10.5 11.5 0.5 11.0 L L O Jaguars home 0-14 3-0 6-0 0-6 9-20 4.0 46.0 -11 -7.0 -17.0 -12.0 -5.0 L L U Redskins h
ome 7-7 0-10 0-2 12-10 19-29 -7.0 40.5 -10 -17.0 7.5 -4.8 12.2 L L O Titans away 0-0 0-0 7-7 7-14 14-21 3.0 40.0 -7 -4.0 -5.0 -4.5 -0.5 L L U Dolphins a way 3-10 3-7 3-3 8-3 17-23 1.0 43.0 -6 -5.0 -3.0 -4.0 1.0 L L U Broncos home 5-0 3-14 0-0 0-8 8-22 3.0 42.0 -14 -11.0 -12.0 -11.5 -0.5 L L U Chiefs home 6-7 14-3 0-14 7-10 27-34 -1.0 50.5 -7 -8.0 10.5 1.2 9.2 L L O Falcons away 3-0 0-21 0-7 7-7 10-35 7.5 46.0 -25 -17.5 -1.0 -9.2 8.2 L L U Giants home 7-7 7-13 7-7 0-3 21-30 8.5 44.0 -9 -0.5 7.0 3.2 3.8 L L O Texans home 0-7 14-0 0-7 0-9 14-23 -3.0 36.5 -9 -12.0 0.5 -5.8 6.2 L L O Jets away 0-7 3-3 0-3 0-10 3-23 12.5 34.0 -20 -7.5 -8.0 -7.8 -0.2 L L U Packers away 0-0 7-14 0-17 0-7 7-38 10.0 42.0 -31 -21.0 3.0 -9.0 12.0 L L O Chiefs home 3-3 0-7 7-0 3-10 13-20 -3.0 41.5 -7 -10.0 -8.5 -9.2 0.8 L L U Chargers away 0-10 7-17 0-0 0-7 7-34 9.5 43.0 -27 -17.5 -2.0 -9.8 7.8 L L U Patriots home 7-21 7-14 6-7 6-7 26-49 7.0 40.0 -23 -16.0 35.0 9.5 25.5 L L O Colts home 7-7 6-10 3-7 10-7 26-31 2.0 47.0 -5 -3.0 10.0 3.5 6.5 L L O Chargers h
ome 7-7 6-17 6-7 7-7 26-38 -2.5 48.5 -12 -14.5 15.5 0.5 15.0 L L O Chargers a way 0-3 10-7 0-10 3-6 13-26 10.0 51.0 -13 -3.0 -12.0 -7.5 -4.5 L L U Broncos h
ome 0-14 0-17 0-0 14-3 14-34 11.0 53.5 -20 -9.0 -5.5 -7.2 1.8 L L U Rams away 0-21 0-17 0-0 0-14 0-52 7.0 42.5 -52 -45.0 9.5 -17.8 27.2 L L O Bills home 5.5 39.0 ot
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SportsBook Breakers is over +$2,500 for the $100 player on NFL
selections the past four years. Find SportsBook Breakers selections
every week at Vegas Insider under Vince Akins.
2014 NFL Week 16 | 7
2014 NFL Week 16
Time
8:25
THUR
4:30
SAT
8:25
SAT
1:00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1;00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1;00
SUN
1:00
SUN
1:00
SUN
4:05
SUN
4:25
SUN
Teams
Tennessee at
Jacksonville
Philadelphia at
Washington
San Diego at
San Francisco
Atlanta at
New Orleans
Kansas City at
Pittsburgh
Baltimore at
Houston
Green Bay at
Tampa Bay
Minnesota at
Miami
Detroit at
Chicago
Cleveland at
Carolina
New England at
N.Y. Jets
N.Y. Giants at
St. Louis
Buffalo at
Oakland
Prev.
L vs NYJ
L @ BAL
L vs DAL*
L @ NYG
L vs DEN
L @ SEA
L vs PIT
W @ CHI#
W vs OAK
W @ ATL
W vs JAC
L @ IND
L vs BUF
L @ CAR
L @ DET
L @ NE
W vs MIN
L vs NO#
L vs CIN
W vs TB
W vs MIA
W @ TEN
W vs WAS
L vs ARZ^
W vs GB
L @ KC
Next
vs IND
@ HOU
vs NYG
vs DAL
@ KC
vs ARZ
vs CAR
@ TB
vs SD
vs CIN
vs CLE
vs JAC
vs DET
vs NO
vs CHI
vs NYJ
@ GB
@ MIN
@ BAL
@ ATL
vs BUF
@ MIA
@ PHL
@ SEA
@ NE
@ DEN
Lines
Final
4:25
Indianapolis at W vs HOU
@ TEN
SUN
Dallas
W @ PHL*
@ WAS
8:30
Seattle at
W vs SF
vs STL
SUN
Arizona
W vs STL^
@ SF
8:30
Denver at
W @ SD
vs OAK
MON Cincinnati
W @ CLE
@ PIT
#On Monday Night, *On Sunday Night, % On Saturday Night, ^On Thursday Night
Notes:
8 | www.KillerSports.com
Notes
Trends and Notes / Week 16
Titans at Jaguars - The Titans are 0-7 ATS (-10.36 ppg) since
Dec 08, 2013 after a loss in which a receiver had at least 6
receptions. The Titans are 6-0 ATS (16.58 ppg) since Oct 02,
2011 on the road after playing at home in each of the previous
two weeks. The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS (-13.58 ppg) since Sep 29,
2013 at home when they lost by 7+ points in each of the last
two weeks. The Titans are 0-6 OU (-11.08 ppg) since Dec 22,
2013 when facing a team that has scored on less than 30% of
their offensive drives.
Chargers at Fortyniners - The Chargers are 0-8 ATS (-8.56
ppg) since Oct 12, 2014 on grass. The Fortyniners are 0-8-1
ATS (-11.06 ppg) since Sep 14, 2014 on grass. The Chargers are
9-0 OU (7.94 ppg) since Nov 04, 2007 on the road the week
after a game at home in which they had at least three fewer
minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.
The Fortyniners are 6-0 OU (15.33 ppg) since Dec 07, 2003 as a
favorite when they lost by double digits in each of the past two
weeks. The Fortyniners are 0-8 OU (-11.44 ppg) since Nov 30,
1998 at home vs a non-divisional opponent between divisional
opponents.
Eagles at Redskins - The Eagles are 0-8 ATS (-10.38 ppg) since
Nov 16, 2008 as a favorite after a loss as a home favorite. Teams
are 0-7 ATS (-7.93 ppg) since Dec 08, 2013 after a loss against
the Cowboys. The Redskins are 0-8 ATS (-12.06 ppg) since Nov
03, 2008 at home when facing a team whose QB was sacked
4-plus times last week. The Redskins are 0-6 ATS (-13.58 ppg)
since Sep 25, 2014 after a loss as a dog.
Lions at Bears - The Lions are 0-6 ATS (-7.58 ppg) since Dec
18, 2011 the week after a win in which they committed no turnovers. The Bears are 0-6 ATS (-8.17 ppg) since Sep 25, 2011 as
a home dog. The Lions are 8-0-1 OU (8.11 ppg) since Sep 17,
2000 the week after scoring fewer than 17 points and winning.
The Lions are 7-0 OU (6.36 ppg) since Dec 15, 1991 as a road
favorite when they had a negative turnover margin in each of
their last two games. The Bears are 6-0-1 OU (12.29 ppg) since
Dec 09, 2013 when facing a team that has averaged less than
1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.
Packers at Buccaneers - The Packers are 7-0 ATS (7.93 ppg)
since Sep 29, 2003 on the road after a road loss in which a
receiver had more than 5 receptions. The Packers are 0-6 ATS
(-8.08 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 on the road when facing a team
that has scored on less than 30% of their offensive drives. The
Buccaneers are 7-0 ATS (9.79 ppg) since Oct 22, 1989 as a dog
after a loss vs a divisional opponent in which they were winning
at the half. The Buccaneers are 0-8 OU (-7.06 ppg) since Dec
23, 2012 when they lost last week while suffering a turnover
margin of at least -2.
Seahawks at Cardinals - The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS (16.08
ppg) since Dec 16, 2012 on the road when they have had a
negative dpa in each of their last two games. The Seahawks
are 0-8 ATS (-8.38 ppg) since Oct 26, 2003 as a road favorite on
grass between home games. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS (10.86
ppg) since Sep 15, 2013 at home between away games. The
Seahawks are 0-7-1 OU (-9.25 ppg) since Nov 10, 2013 when
their dps was negative in their last two games. The Cardinals
are 8-0 OU (8.44 ppg) since Oct 16, 2006 at home the week after
a game in which they punted at least eight times.
Colts at Cowboys - The Colts are 6-0 ATS (4.67 ppg) since Oct
21, 2012 after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their
season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS (-8.50 ppg)
since Dec 19, 2010 as a home favorite when their dps was positive in their last two games. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS (5.50 ppg)
since Sep 30, 2007 the week after a win as an away dog in which
they had at least three more minutes of possession time than
their season-to-date average. The Colts are 9-0 OU (12.94 ppg)
since Jan 03, 2010 on the road on artificial turf after playing as
a favorite. The Cowboys are 6-0-1 OU (9.21 ppg) since Oct 27,
2013 after playing as an away dog.
Vikings at Dolphins - The Vikings are 7-0 ATS (5.93 ppg) since
Sep 25, 2011 as a dog after a loss in which they were winning
at the half. The Vikings are 0-6-1 ATS (-8.07 ppg) since Oct 22,
1995 on the road when they lost 1-3 points last week after a
divisional opponent. The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS (-9.75 ppg) since
Nov 16, 2003 as a home favorite when they suffered a 10+ point
ATS loss last week. The Vikings are 6-0 OU (14.42 ppg) since
Nov 01, 2009 as a dog after a game when they had more than
34 minutes of possession time. The Dolphins are 0-7 OU (-12.14
ppg) since Nov 08, 1992 as a 7+ favorite when they lost by 7+
points in each of the last two weeks.
Patriots at Jets - The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (17.22 ppg) since
continued on page 10
2014 NFL Week 16 | 9
Trends and Notes / Week 16 continued
Jan 02, 2011 when they had at least three sacks in each of the
last two weeks. The Patriots are 0-6 ATS (-7.83 ppg) since Oct
20, 2013 on the road after playing as a home favorite. The Jets
are 0-6 ATS (-11.83 ppg) since Nov 02, 2003 as a home dog after
playing on the road in each of the previous two weeks. The
Patriots are 0-6 OU (-12.75 ppg) since Dec 30, 2012 the week
after a win in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing.
The Jets are 0-7 OU (-9.00 ppg) since Dec 22, 2013 after a game
in which a receiver had a reception of 30+ yards.
Browns at Panthers - The Browns are 7-0 ATS (6.29 ppg) since
Oct 17, 1993 as a road favorite after a loss. The Browns are 0-6
OU (-9.83 ppg) since Oct 12, 2014 as a favorite. The Panthers
are 0-6 OU (-8.25 ppg) since Oct 31, 2010 after a game when
they had more than 34 minutes of possession time at home.
Bills at Raiders - The Bills are 7-0-1 ATS (10.25 ppg) since Sep
14, 2003 as a road favorite on grass. The Bills are 0-6 OU (-8.00
ppg) since Oct 02, 2011 as a favorite after a win at home. The
Raiders are 8-0 OU (9.25 ppg) since Oct 10, 2010 as a home
dog when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10
yards per completion season-to-date.
Giants at Rams - The Giants are 9-0 ATS (14.83 ppg) since Oct
07, 2007 the week after a win at home in which their dps was
negative. The Rams are 0-6 ATS (-7.17 ppg) since Nov 18, 1990
at home after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes
of possession time at home. The Rams are 7-0 OU (12.43 ppg)
since Oct 09, 2005 as a favorite when their ats margin decreased
over each of their past two games.
continued on page 11
SportsBook Breakers’ NFL Player Trends
Trends
Sports Data Query Language
The Cardinals are 10-0 ATS (11.30 ppg) since Oct 06, 2013 after
a win in which Larry Fitzgerald had at least 5 receptions.
5<=Cardinals:Larry Fitzgerald:p:receptions and p:W and
date>=20131006
The Cowboys are 0-9 ATS (-8.72 ppg) since Sep 26, 2011 at home
after a win in which DeMarco Murray had fewer than 3 receptions
H and Cowboys:DeMarco Murray:p:receptions<3 and p:W and
date>=20110926
Eric Decker is 9-0 ATS (13.5 ppg) in his career with at least five
days rest after a game where he had at least 90 yards receiving.
Eric Decker:p:receiving yards>=90 and rest>=5
The Packers are 6-0 ATS (13.25 ppg) since Nov 2008 with at least
full rest after a game where Aaron Rodgers did not throw for a
touchdown.
ARodgers:p:passing touchdowns=0 and ARodgers:p:passes>0
and rest>=6 and date>=20081101
The Patriots are 11-0 OU (11.05 ppg) since Sep 19, 2010 on the
road the week after a win in which Rob Gronkowski had a least
1 receiving touchdown.
30<=Patriots:Rob Gronkowski:p:longest reception and p:W and
NB and date>=20110925
10 | www.KillerSports.com
Trends and Notes / Week 16 continued
Falcons at Saints - The Falcons are 6-0 ATS (10.00 ppg) since
Nov 21, 2013 vs a divisional opponent. The Saints are 7-0 ATS
(17.71 ppg) since Oct 04, 2009 at home when facing a team
that gets more than 2/3 of their first downs via the pass. The
Falcons are 0-6 OU (-10.92 ppg) since Sep 14, 2014 when their
opponent’s season-to-date average pass attempts per game is
greater than 35.
Ravens at Texans - The Texans are 0-8 ATS (-8.19 ppg) since
Dec 10, 2012 as a dog after playing on the road. The Ravens
are 0-8 OU (-10.44 ppg) since Sep 18, 2005 as a road favorite
when their opponent’s season-to-date average pass attempts
per game is fewer than 30. The Texans are 6-0 OU (6.58 ppg)
since Dec 15, 2002 within 3 of pick after scoring a defensive
touchdown.
Chiefs at Steelers - The Chiefs are 8-0 ATS (7.12 ppg) since
Oct 04, 2004 as a dog when their passing yards increased in
each of the last two weeks. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS (10.75 ppg)
since Oct 01, 1995 within 3 of pick at home the week after a
game in which they had at least 300 yards passing. The Chiefs
are 0-6 OU (-7.50 ppg) since Jan 01, 2012 as a road dog when
they have had a negative dpa in each of their last two games.
Broncos at Bengals - The Bengals are 9-0 ATS (9.50 ppg) since
Dec 21, 2008 as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last
week. The Broncos are 7-0-1 OU (7.69 ppg) since Nov 30, 2008
on artificial turf vs a non-divisional opponent with a divisional
opponent next. The Bengals are 0-8 OU (-11.81 ppg) since Dec
04, 2011 after a game where they had a 100-yard rusher.
NFL HANDICAPPING BIBLE Active Trends
Trends
Sports Data Query Language
NYJ006: The Jets are 0-14 ATS after a road game in which they
allowed at least 7.5 points fewer than their season-to-date
average.
team=Jets and p:A and tA(po:points) - po:points >=7.5 and
date>=20071001
PHI007: The Eagles are 0-14 ATS after a home loss in which a
receiver had a reception of more than 25 yards.
team=Eagles and max:p:longest reception>25 and p:HL and
date>=20110101
GB006: The Packers are 0-12 ATS after a loss on the road in
which they had at least 3 more penalties than their seasonto-date average.
team=Packers and p:AL and p:PEN - tA(p:PEN) >= 3 and
season >= 1990
SEA003: The Seahawks are 11-0 ATS on the road after a home
game in which a receiver had more than 75 receiving yards.
team=Seahawks and A and max:p:receiving yards>=75 and p:H
and season>=2011
SEA011: The Seahawks are 16-0 OU versus any team with more
wins after a win at home.
team=Seahawks and p:HW and o:wins>wins and date>=19981201
Every week there are several active trends available in the 2014 NFL Handicapping Bible. Check your copy to find trends not included
here. If you have yet to download your copy, do so at http://killersports.com/Download/NFL/2014NFLBible.pdf
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2014 NFL Week 16 | 11