Money Morning - Moneycontrol

Money Morning
08 January 2015
Indian Indices
Index
% Change
Last Close
Page No.


2
Corporate News
Page No.

Nifty
3
Event Calendar
2
Macro-Economic News
Nifty vs Institutional Movement
(` Mn)
8395
8283
8378
8284
0
(5000)
8127
8102
(10000)
(15000)
(20000)
31-Dec
1-Jan
2-Jan
5-Jan
YTD
(0.3)
(2.1)
(2.1)
8,102
(0.3)
(2.2)
(2.2)
CNX Midcap
12,361
0.3
(1.8)
(1.8)
CNX IT
10,916
(0.4)
(2.7)
(2.7)
Bankex
18,304
(0.7)
(2.3)
(2.3)
Auto
18,535
(0.1)
(0.5)
(0.5)
Metal
10,386
(1.4)
(3.4)
(3.4)
FMCG
7,664
(0.2)
(1.3)
(1.3)
% Change
Last Close
10000
5000
MTD
26,909
Global Indices
Provisional Figures for Investments
15000
Sensex
1 Day
6-Jan
8450
8400
8350
8300
8250
8200
8150
8100
8050
8000
7950
MF (LHS)
(0.2)
3.4
3.4
Nikkei 225
16,885
1.7
(1.6)
(1.6)
(1.1)
Straits Times
3,298
1.4
(1.1)
Hang Seng
23,681
1.3
0.8
0.8
DJIA
17,585
1.2
(1.3)
(1.3)
S&P 500
2,026
1.2
(1.6)
(1.6)
FTSE
6,420
0.8
(2.2)
(2.2)
92
0.3
2.1
2.1
Dollar Index
Live Markets
Current Quote
3,344
% Change
(0.9%)
Volumes
Source: NSE
As on 08:15 hours IST
Hang
Nikkei SGX Nifty
Seng
17,168
1.7%
18.1
8378
8400
8350
8300
17.4
8283
8246
8284
17.4
8248
15.8
8200
15.0
8100
14.6
14.9
15.1
15.0
14.2
14.2
13.8
8050
8102
12.6
11.8
7950
11.0
30-Dec
31-Dec
1-Jan
Nifty Spot (LHS)
2-Jan
5-Jan
6-Jan
30 Day
30
NSE CASH
164
122
155
2324
1688
2191
Spot market
1 Day
MTD
YTD
FII
(Rs bn)
(10.7)
(18.9)
(18.9)
MF
(Rs bn)
6.0
13.0
13.0
Bond Market
Historical Data (%)
10Yr Yield (G-Sec)
1 Day
1M
1 Yr
7.86
7.86
7.86
13.4
8127
8000
29-Dec
5 Day
16.6
8250
8150
0.5%
28
19.0
18.2
23,801
32
Institutional Activities (Net)
8395
0.8%
BSE CASH
NSE F&O
8450
8,210
Moving Average (Rs bn)
1 Day
Nifty vs India VIX
YTD
3,374
7-Jan
Nifty (RHS)
MTD
Shanghai
Shanghai
FII (LHS)
1 Day
7-Jan
INDIA VIX (RHS)
Currency Market
% Change
Last Close
1day
MTD
YTD
INR/USD
63.18
0.6
(0.2)
(0.2)
INR/EURO
74.84
1.1
2.4
2.4
INR/GBP
95.61
1.0
2.8
2.8
Close
1 Day
MTD
YTD
1.0
(7.8)
(7.8)
Commodities Update
Source: NSE
Unit
Crude Oil(NYME)$/Bbl
% Change
49
Gold (OTC)
$/Oz
1,210
(0.1)
2.1
2.1
Copper (LME)
$/MT
6,183
(0.6)
(2.9)
(2.9)
Aluminum (LME) $/MT
1,762
0.4
(3.5)
(3.5)
Sugar (LIFFE)
$/MT
390
(0.8)
(0.3)
(0.3)
Zinc (LME)
$/MT
2,133
(1.9)
(2.1)
(2.1)
744
(1.8)
(4.9)
(4.9)
Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 1
Money Morning
08 January 2015
Corporate News/Results Corner
Coal India workers’ strike called off – Positive in short term for Coal India; In medium term, upside may be capped around Rs
400/share due to likelihood of OFS.
The two-day old strike by coal workers across India was on Wednesday called off with the government and the unions reaching an
agreement after a marathon meeting. The details of the terms and conditions of the agreement reached between the government and the
unions has not been shared. Govt has assured trade union that it would protect the interests of the state owned behemoth and its
employee. We believe this development to be positive in short term for Coal India. In medium term, upside may be capped around Rs
400/share due to likelihood of OFS.
Macro-Economic and Other News
International News
India's manufacturing, services growth outpaced China in
U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows To Smallest In Eleven Months In
December: HSBC
November
The manufacturing and services sectors in India expanded at a
Reflecting a notable decrease in the value of imports, the US.
faster pace than those in China in December, even as emerging
trade deficit narrowed by more than expected in the month of
market growth remained lacklustre, an HSBC survey said.
November. The deficit narrowed to $39.0 billion in November from
During December, the HSBC composite index for India, that
a revised $42.2 billion in October. The trade deficit in November
maps both manufacturing and services, stood at 52.9, whereas
reflected the smallest since December of 2013. Economists had
for China it was 51.4, Brazil (49.2) and Russia (47.2). "Of the
expected the deficit to shrink to $41.5 billion from the $43.4 billion
four 'BRIC' economies, India saw the strongest rate of
originally reported for the previous month.
expansion in December, despite the rate of expansion slipping
from November's five-month peak,"
Luxembourg Consumer Prices Fall For First Time Since 2009
Luxembourg's consumer price inflation moved to negative territory
Bank loans grow most in 3 quarters; deposits increase
for the first time in five-and-a-half years in December, figures from
11.5% from year ago to Rs 83.4 lakh crore:
the statistical office STATEC showed. The consumer price index
Banks have loaned Rs 1.84 lakh crore since the last reporting
fell 0.61% YoY in December, in contrast to a 0.07% mild increase
Friday of the September 2014 quarter, an extrapolation of RBI
in the previous month. A negative inflation rate has not been seen
credit data show. This is the most banks have lent in absolute
since July 2009, the agency said. The decline of December's index
terms in any of the 3 quarters of this financial year. Banks had
was mainly influenced by the tumbling petroleum products prices.
loaned only Rs66,827 crore in the June-September 2014
Oil prices dropped 6.8 percent annually during the month.
quarter, up from Rs 44,100 crore in the April-June 2014 period.
Banks loaned Rs 1,21 lakh crore in October-December 2013.
However, on an annualised basis, total credit at Rs 63.5 lakh
crore as of December 26, 2014, represents year-on-year growth
of just 10.5% compared with 14.5% in the same period a year
ago.
Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg, RTT News
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 2
Money Morning
08 January 2015
Event Calendar
Economy
Monday 05 Jan
Domestic
Tuesday 06 Jan
Wednesday 07 Jan
Thursday 08Jan
HSBC India
Services PMI
Dec(Actual 51.1,
prior 52.6)
Friday 09 Jan
Local Car Sales
Dec (Prior 156445)
Exports
YoY
Dec
(Prior 7.30%)
HSBC India
Composite PMI Dec
(Actual 52.9, prior
53.6)
Global
Imports Yoy Dec
(Prior 26.80%)
US:
US:
US:
US:
UK:
ISM New York
Market US
Trade Balance
Initial Jobless Claims
Industrial Production
Dec (Actual 70.8, prior
Composite PMI Dec
Nov (Actual $-39.0B,
03-Jan (Exp 290k, Prior
MoM
62.4)
(Actual 53.5, prior
Exp. $42.0b , Prior -
290k)
Nov
53.80)
$43.4)
(Exp 0.20%,
Prior -0.10%)
JAPAN:
Market US Services
UK:
Industrial Production
Market/JMMA Japan
PMI Dec f (Actual
Bank of England Bank
YoY
Manufacturing PMI
53.5, Exp 53.8,
Rate 08-Jan (Exp 0.50%,
Nov (exp 1.70%,
Dec (Actual 52.0,
Prior 53.6)
Prior 0.50 %)
Prior 1.10%)
Germany :
Eurozone:
Market Germany
Retail Sales MoM Nov
Services PMI Dec
(Exp 0.20%, Prior 0.40%)
US:
(Actual 52.1, Exp
Retail Sales YoY Nov (Exp
Wholesale Inventories
51.4, Prior 51.4)
0.20%, Prior1.40%)
MoM Nov (Exp 0.30%,
prior 52.10)
NIESR GDP Estimate
dec (prior 0.70%)
Prior 0.40 %)
Wholesale Trade Sales
MoM Nov (Exp 0.00%,
Prior 0.20 %)
JAPAN:
Markit Japan
Services PMI Dec
(Actual 53.4, prior
CHINA:
Germany :
Exports SA MoM Nov
(Exp -1.50%, Prior 0.50 %)
HSBC China
Imports SA MoM Nov
Services PMI Dec
(Exp 0.50%, Prior -3.10
(Actual 53.4, prior
%)
50.06)
53)
CHINA:
Eurozone:
CPI YoY Dec (Exp
Markit Eurozone
1.50%, Prior 1.40 %)
Composite PMI Dec
(Actual 51.4, Exp
51.70, Prior 51.70)
Source: Bloomberg
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 3
Money Morning
08 January 2015
Research Team
Vivek Mahajan
Hemant Thukral
Head of Research
Head – Derivatives Desk
022-61802820
022-61802870
[email protected]
[email protected]
Fundamental Team
Sunny Agrawal
FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps
022-61802831
[email protected]
Shreyans Mehta
Construction/Real Estate
022-61802829
[email protected]
Jaymin Trivedi
Banking & Finance
022-61802833
[email protected]
Pradeep Parkar
Database Analyst
022-61802839
[email protected]
Sudeep Shah
Sr.Technical Analyst
022-61802837
[email protected]
Rahil Vora
Technical Analyst
022-61802834
[email protected]
Soni Patnaik
Derivative Analyst
022-61802832
[email protected]
Suresh Gardas
Advisory Desk
022-61207619
[email protected]
Salim Hajiani
Advisory Desk
022-61207618
[email protected]
Mohan Jaiswal
Executive – Research Support
022-61802838
[email protected]
Quantitative Team
Advisory Support
ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 4
Money Morning
08 January 2015
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Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 5