Global Pork and Poultry Production Outlook 2015-2020 US Soy Global Trade Exchange Milwaukee, Wisconsin 2014 Dr. Paul Aho - Poultry Perspective [email protected] Storrs, Connecticut USA 2015-2020 n n n n Commodities Economy Chickens Pork Hockey Sticks and Bubbles 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 Commodity Price Index 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 Real Home Price Index 5 West Texas Intermediate Oil Price 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Average Price of Corn in Chicago $/Bushel by Crop Year $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 20 05 -2 20 006 06 -2 20 007 07 -2 20 008 08 -2 20 009 09 -2 20 010 10 -2 20 011 11 -2 20 012 12 -2 01 3 $0.00 Commodity Price Index Projection 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 WTI Price of Oil - January 100 90 80 70 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 20 12 -2 20 013 13 -2 20 014 14 -2 20 015 15 -2 20 016 16 -2 20 017 17 -2 20 018 18 -2 20 019 19 -2 02 0 Price of SBM Short Ton – Crop Year $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 2015 - 2020 US Pork and Poultry Turnaround from declines n Lower cost of grain and energy n Relatively rapid growth n US Per Capita Consumption of Young Chicken in Pounds 87 85 83 81 79 77 75 2006 2007 2008 2009 US Per Capita Consumption of Pork in Pounds 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 2009 2010 2011 65-67 lbs. from 1990-2007 53-54 lbs. 2014 14 Why the Decline ? n n Recession (Income) Higher input costs US Unemployment % 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 US Per Capita Meat Use in Pounds & Household Median Income 225 56000 55000 Total Meat Use Median Income 220 54000 215 53000 210 52000 205 51000 200 50000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Median income US Census to 2012 -Meat Use WASDE to 2013 US Unemployment % 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 US Per Capita Meat Use in pounds & Household Median Income – One Scenario 225 220 56000 Total Meat Use Median Income 55000 54000 215 53000 210 52000 205 51000 200 50000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Median income US Census to 2012 -Meat Use WASDE to 2015 – 2012 Dollars US Per Capita Consumption of Young Chicken in Pounds 89 87 85 83 81 79 77 75 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 US Per Capita Consumption of Pork in Pounds 52 50 48 46 44 42 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 40 2015 – 2020 World Production World Economy Improves n Lower cost of grain and energy n Higher Production n World Chicken Growth Rate & World Economic Growth Rate 7 6 5 Chicken Growth World 4 3 2 1 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 World Production of Chicken Meat 2005-2020 - MMT 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 2005 2010 2015 2020 World Production of Pork Meat 2005-2020 - MMT 120 110 100 90 80 70 2005 2010 2015 2020 World Meat Consumption Per Capita 18 16 Pork 14 Chicken 12 10 8 2004 2008 2012 Source: USDA to 2012 2016 2020 Meat Consumption Per Capita will grow mostly in the Developing World World Map Adjusted For Meat Consumption 28 World Map Adjusted For Middle Income 29 Chicken Production MMT 2010 & 2020- MMT 2010 2020 Asia 24 34 40 Latin Am. 22 30 30 USA 17 19 12 EU-27 10 11 10 % Increase 30 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 World Soybean Use 325 300 275 250 225 200 2015 - 2020 Soy Global Demand Economic Growth of about 2.7% n Increased Meat Consumption n Continued Growth in Soy Demand n Conclusions n n n Current Bear Market in Commodities Lower grain prices and improving economy spur meat production Watch Median Income to predict meat consumption and soy demand
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