Measure ! Assert ! Facilitate Evidence-Based Managing of Software by Scrum.org – Improving the Profession of Software Development Ken Schwaber Gunther Verheyen Scrum.org Scrum Day Europe Amsterdam July 3rd, 2014 Session Backlog • A Decade of Agile • The Act of Managing • Evidence-Based Managing of Software © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 2 A Decade of Agile Evidence-Based Managing of Software © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 3 A Craze During the First Decade of Agile? scrum·pede /skrʌmˈpiːd/ 1. Frenzied rush of panic–stricken companies to do Scrum because they want to be Agile, too. 2. To flee in a headlong rush back to the old ways of doing things because Scrum is hard work. © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 4 3 How Agile has it made YOU ? • • • • MIN 100%? Less, but more than 90%? Less, but more than 75%? Around 57,305%? How do you know? Is that important? © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 5 Plenty of subjectivities and opinions dominate agile and software development © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 6 Agile Has Failed “The original agile manifesto was very much about self organizing teams, it would be great if we could get back to that. In the meantime, the word ‘agile’ has become so abused, that we should stop using it.” h"p://java.dzone.com/ar2cles/coconut-‐headphones-‐why-‐agile N O I N I P O © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 7 Agile Is Dead “[Agile] has been greatly abetted by the legions of Agile consultants. By stressing the practices, they have corrupted what Agile was about.” N O I N I P O h"p://www.drdobbs.com/architecture-‐and-‐design/the-‐corrup2on-‐of-‐agile/240166698 © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 8 Agile Is Not Dead “Fact is, most teams are doing Scrum wrong; plenty of people misapply Kanban; and most organizations have no idea how to introduce Management 3.0 practices. But that’s nothing new.” h"p://www.noop.nl/2014/06/agile-‐is-‐not-‐dead.html N O I N I P O © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 9 Agile Is The Future “The Agile Manifesto was written to express shared values of people who saw a new way of developing software. […] I perceive that many in our industry will continue to build better and better software based on these values.” h"p://kenschwaber.wordpress.com/2013/06/11/agile-‐fad/ N O I N I P O © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 10 State of Agile Nobody can tell you what the state of agile is, because: • Nobody can tell you what the value is that organizations derive from employing agile • Investments in agile are high, but its values are ignored, and the returns remain unknown • Everything we know is subjective and based on anecdotal evidence N O I N I P O © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 11 (In the meantime) Software Is Eating The World 2001 • • • • • • • • Y2K panic Windows XP iPod Google search with clickthrough ads AOL merger with Time Warner CDMA Web 2.0 .COM bubble has burst 2014 NSA, Wiki, Facebook Stuxnet, cyber warfare 39% / 77% internet usage Mobile devices Books, music, movies, social Business competes on the internet • Most products have embedded software (bar codes) • Driverless cars and tractors • • • • • • U Y C N RGE © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 12 If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. -Steve Jobs The Act of Managing Evidence-Based Managing of Software © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 13 Managing, A Matter of Professionalism? Common observations about managerial decisions: • According to magazine X … • On my last team/company … • The customer demands it. • I read a book that said … • Mandatory overtime. • Hire a consultant. • Google it. © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 14 What if we added evidence to opinion, intuition and beliefs? © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 15 Evidence Is Data Weighed Against An Assertion Assertion ✚ Data Evidence © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 16 Evidence Has Properties of Quality Weak Circumstantial (‘secondary’) evidence is weakest • Is merely consistent with the assertion • Doesn’t rule out contradictory causes • Unclear, sparse, unreliable Strong Direct evidence (‘primary’) is strongest • Direct proof whether an assertion is true/false • Rules out any alternative explanation • Obvious, plentiful, trusted © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 17 Assertion This Cat Ate The Missing Bird What type of evidence? ! Circumstantial Weak 1 2 3 ! Direct 4 5 Strong © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 18 Scrum Is A Good Way To Build Software Assertion Scrum Hit list – 10 good reasons for Scrum Weak 1 2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 3 Competitiveness Develop what is needed Confidence through transparency Build Quality in Recognize risks in time To have the costs under control Changes are welcome Keep it lean and agile Perfect for system development Scrum makes fun 4 5 Strong h"p://www.agile42.com/en/blog/2009/06/16/10-‐good-‐reasons-‐scrum/ h"ps://www.google.be/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=88GyU5KwIcOH8QfchIDgDw#q=reasons+to+use+Scrum © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 19 Agile Projects Are More Successful Than Waterfall Assertion Weak 1 2 3 4 5 Strong The CHAOS Manifesto, Copyright 2011 © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 20 A Higher Velocity Means More Success Assertion What type of evidence? ! Circumstantial Weak 1 2 “Scrum Metrics for Hyperproduc2ve Teams” (Downey and Sutherland) 3 ! Direct 4 5 Strong © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 21 Better Process Adherence Means More Valuable Software Assertion What type of evidence? ! Circumstantial Weak 1 2 3 ! Direct 4 5 Strong © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 22 Schedule Adherence Means More Value Weak 1 2 3 4 Assertion 5 Strong © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 23 Evidence, A Matter of Managerial Culture Evidence-Based Management (“EBM”): • Roots in medical practice. • The application of direct, objective evidence to make decisions. • For software organizations, EBM is employed to maximize the VALUE of software to the organization. Best Available Evidence Manager’s Judgment Customer & OrganizaGonal Values © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 24 Not everything that can be counted, counts, and not everything that counts can be counted. - Albert Einstein Evidence-Based Managing of Software Evidence-Based Managing of Software © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 25 Back To The Drawing Board Remember? “Our highest priority is to satisfy the customer through early and continuous delivery of valuable software.” How is that for a purpose? © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 26 Use direct evidence to optimize the VALUE of your software © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 27 Direct Evidence Considers What, Not How 2 Prince ALM raG IT Ope ons Kanban Agile creates Outcomes DevOps © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 28 A Starting Recipe for Collecting Direct Evidence of Value Current Value Revenue per Employee Product Cost Ra:o Employee Sa:sfac:on Customer Sa:sfac:on Value Ability to Innovate Installed Version Index Usage Index Innova:on Rate Defect Density Time to Market Release Frequency Release Stabiliza:on Cycle Time © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 29 A Starting Recipe for Using Evidence Facilitate Measure Value " Current Value " Time to Market " Ability to Innovate • Skills, Knowledge, Understanding " Product managers " Managers " Developers • Prac:ces, Tools, Standards Assert © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 30 EBM Employs The Scrum Mindset People self-organize and use empiricism to optimize the value of their work. © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 31 The future state of Scrum will no longer be called ‘Scrum’. What we now call Scrum will have become the norm, and organizations have re-invented themselves around it. -Gunther Verheyen Closing Evidence-Based Managing of Software © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 32 Evidence-Based Managing of Software – Optimizes Value – Employs Direct Evidence – Thrives on Feedback Loops © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 33 About Gunther Verheyen • eXtreme Programming and Scrum since 2003 • Professional Scrum Trainer • Directing the Professional series at Scrum.org • Co-developing EBM at Scrum.org • Author of “Scrum – A Pocket Guide (A Smart Travel Companion)” (2013) Mail [email protected] Twitter @Ullizee Blog http://ullizee.wordpress.com © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 34 Connect with the Scrum.org community Forums Scrum.org /Community TwiMer @scrumdotorg LinkedIn LinkedIn.com /company/ Scrum.org Facebook Facebook.com /Scrum.org RSS Scrum.org/RSS © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 35 Thank you © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved 36
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